Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

[Drivesaitl]

Its only strawmen cause you dont agree with it.

You post statements like they're facts, yet when the stats disprove them.

You move the goalposts, its quite clear you dont understand how stats work with hockey.

You used to do this with RNH when you thought he stole Gagner's job as the 1C, when stats disproved that, you changed the argument.

Rinse and repeat.

As soon as someone challenges a comment

"The Stutzle comment was throwaway"

Already responded. Not gonna continue this.

 

[Fourier]

The poster is merely weighing in because thats what the poster does in 80% of his posting throwing shade.

With you doing the same in this post. I have ample understanding and Post Secondary coursework in Statistical methodology. Your derision notwithstanding.

ftr you haven't adequately in the exchange even considered the arguments of myself and others that there were myriad reasons to believe that Connor Brown wasn't going to be productive here and that people including myself had made those points, and giving detail when the signing occurred. For your convenience I've reminded in the discussion what those reasons were for believing that Connor Brown would have ample difficulty tracking back here and that he certainly wouldn't be a legit topsix player here. You respond with numbers or historical backtracking which you feel counters any other premise even though they are not refutation.

Specifically you haven't even considered how a down scoring year, then a serious injury warranting an entire season missed, in addition to missing all that playing time, and lingering effects of injury was going to cumulatively impact. Again you said the results are inexplicable. They are not.

The meaning of the word "Inexplicable" is "Unable to be explained or accounted for" Several posters have responded listing the reasons that explain, or account for, the result.

Nothing wrong either in my citing that which has occurred here, and that myself and others predicted would occur here.

We won't come to agreement on this.

You continually question my use of stats when you know my background and then post stuff that is simply wrong to back up your claims. Regardless of your course in stats you have never shown an ability to actually debate what numbers can and cannot tell you.

Let me respond specifically to the bolded which was a key aspect of your argument. I already stated that your claim that his last year in Ottawa showed decline was wrong. His last year in Ottawa was not a down year offensively. He had a goal scoring drought to end the year but it was his best year in his career in terms of numbers of assists and second best year in total points playing on an Ottawa team that score 226 goals the whole year. It was a modestly down year in terms of goals but he has always been a streak scorer and he played the latter part of the year either with or recovering from a broken jaw after taking a puck in the face. For a guy whose game is predicated in mixing it up and who tends to score in the paint a broken jaw is an issue. He also had covid during the season. Injuries aside he actually had a very good year overall. That's why I posted the quote from one of the main guys on the Ottawa board suggesting this Wednesday that he would trade a guy like Tarasenko for a Connor Brown clone.

In fact here are just a few recent quotes from the Ottawa board:

We lost some of our best PK'ers in Nick Paul, Connor Brown and Formenton.

Hard to say.. I'd like to see them move Kubalik and Tarasenko and replace them with more two way gritty players .. in the mold of Connor Brown.
to start off with.

I miss The Connor Brown motor of a few years ago. We need a guy with that talent level and motor (Hyman?). Grieg looks to be that kind of guy potentially. We need guys that contribute on the physical and pettiness side so we can irritate the opposition. We also need these guys to help activate Brady who is such a beast when his blood is up.

Can anybody explain what the hell happened to Connor Brown? I know he tore his ACL and missed most of last season and has a weird clause in his contract about playing 10 games but yeesh. Used to be the ideal middle 6er

His performance this year is inexplicable if you look at his career. I stand by that. Sure he missed a year. That, and the fact that I thought the salary was too high, were the main reasons why I stated that the signing was a risk. But he has been an absolute and unrecognizable shadow of his previous self despite the fact that the knee was supposedly fully healed.

Look, your prediction of the player has come true. I have never disputed it. But that was not the content of my posts. It had to do with your mischaracterization of his history.

 

[alphahelix]

Its only strawmen cause you dont agree with it.

You post statements like they're facts, yet when the stats disprove them.

You move the goalposts, its quite clear you dont understand how stats work with hockey.

You used to do this with RNH when you thought he stole Gagner's job as the 1C, when stats disproved that, you changed the argument.

Rinse and repeat.

As soon as someone challenges a comment

"The Stutzle comment was throwaway"

the 7 goal sample size with Stutzle is a big deal to you huh? I think James Neal had 7 goals in the first 3 or 4 games of the season a couple years ago on the top unit. Then He was buried and bought out. Im pretty sure Brown has less than 100 goals in his career, that doesn’t scream great top 6 option coming into this season turning 30.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You continually question my use of stats when you know my background and then post stuff that is simply wrong to back up your claims. Regardless of your course in stats you have never shown an ability to actually debate what numbers can and cannot tell you.

Let me respond specifically to the bolded which was a key aspect of your argument. I already stated that your claim that his last year in Ottawa showed decline was wrong. His last year in Ottawa was not a down year offensively. He had a goal scoring drought to end the year but it was his best year in his career in terms of numbers of assists and second best year in total points playing on an Ottawa team that score 226 goals the whole year. It was a modestly down year in terms of goals but he has always been a streak scorer and he played the latter part of the year either with or recovering from a broken jaw after taking a puck in the face. For a guy whose game is predicated in mixing it up and who tends to score in the paint a broken jaw is an issue. He also had covid during the season. Injuries aside he actually had a very good year overall. That's why I posted the quote from one of the main guys on the Ottawa board suggesting this Wednesday that he would trade a guy like Tarasenko for a Connor Brown clone.

In fact here are just a few recent quotes from the Ottawa board:










His performance this year is inexplicable if you look at his career. I stand by that. Sure he missed a year. That, and the fact that I thought the salary was too high, were the main reasons why I stated that the signing was a risk. But he has been an absolute and unrecognizable shadow of his previous self despite the fact that the knee was supposedly fully healed.

Look, your prediction of the player has come true. I have never disputed it. But that was not the content of my posts. It had to do with your mischaracterization of his history.

I could care less about Connor Browns history, which seems somehow so important to you as if defending honor and valor. I cared about the deteriorated Connor Brown that we would be getting and didn't want any part of that, or the deal.

lol that you're giving me Ottawa fan quotes now. Do you love this player or something? I don't even get why you would go to all this trouble for such a nothing player here. I wish we never got him.

You also fail to see that in every post I've talked about Connor Browns goal scoring. I'm not interested in pts he collected playing with talented players that move results and score goals because the current version of Connor Brown can't pass the puck to save his career. Of course he can't score either.

So you keep saying that Connor Brown decline is "Inexplicable" yet he failed to score goals consistently in last season, got a broken jaw, got covid, had an extensive knee injury, missed an entire year of hockey, and you keep not understanding how there could be this degree of decline? Its perfectly understandable, and it was predicted. For all we know Connor Brown has long covid as well. There were so many reasons NOT for Holland to land on this player.

Gee, fans in Ottawa still want him? Great, maybe we can somehow unload this useless player back on them.

 

[Oilslick941611]

We get it, he sucks. I can't believe some people still have stuff to say about him. Hes like Campbell, bitching about him won't change anything.

Just don't think about him. It's not your money.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Let's hope that he turns his game around and starts scoring after the allstar break.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Let's hope that he turns his game around and starts scoring after the allstar break.

You spelled Christmas wrong.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

You spelled Christmas wrong.

I don't see it changing that quick for him, but I was also really down on McLeod less than a week ago so who knows for sure?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I could care less about Connor Browns history, which seems somehow so important to you as if defending honor and valor. I cared about the deteriorated Connor Brown that we would be getting and didn't want any part of that, or the deal.

lol that you're giving me Ottawa fan quotes now. Do you love this player or something? I don't even get why you would go to all this trouble for such a nothing player here. I wish we never got him.

So you keep saying that Connor Brown decline is "Inexplicable" yet he failed to score goals consistently in last season, got a broken jaw, got covid, had an extensive knee injury, missed an entire year of hockey, and you keep not understanding how there could be this degree of decline? Its perfectly understandable, and it was predicted. For all we know Connor Brown has long covid as well. There were so many reasons NOT for Holland to land on this player.

Gee, fans in Ottawa still want him? Great, maybe we can somehow unload this useless player back on them.

You seemed to care alot when you used his history as an argument for dragging down skilled players.

Which was disproven in about 10 seconds.

 

[tiger_80]

Let's hope that he turns his game around and starts scoring after the allstar break.

The only way Holland gets redemption is if Brown scores the cup-winning goal, which will probably be his first of the season. lol.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

What were the signs that he was a bad player?? I've watched this player his whole career. Calling him a bad player is hard to justify based on his past. Did the team over pay. Yes. Looking back I said I wanted the deal to be in the $2.5-3M range at the time, though $2.5M would not have been very realistic given salaries this off season which is why I still say it was about $1M too high. Is he playing substantially under expectations. Yes!! So in hindsight it is a problematic signing. But that is not what I was disputing in the posts I quoted.

Here is what i had previously said as to why I supported the signing if the choice was Brown or some other $775K player.

You are misquoting me.

I said, "there were signs that this was a bad player to take an especially 4 million dollar gamble on."

In other words, A bad bet.

You extrapolated that to mean, "What were the signs he was a bad player?"

He wasn't a bad player, but there were signs he was going to be a bad player this year...

He is a small, slow, cerebral player on the cusp of 30 who just had a major leg injury which affects his skating. This inhibits his speed, maneuverability, and ability to avoid checks. Did he succeed? Did he do everything right? How healthy is he? How susceptible to injury is he now due to being a small, even slower player? Will he play the perimeter? He lets it be known that he is having a life moment while being injured. An epipheny? What? It took him a full year to rehab. Could he have worked harder to get back for his team? He's been traded/let go how many times? Is he a bit of a headcase? He was a 30 point player before injury, what will he be now? Should he be signed for 4 million in a flat cap world?

Results. The player this year re-injured himself in game 9 despite playing a perimeter game. He looks small, slow and rarely engages in contact. When he does, he gets hurt. He has been hit hard this year due to his lack of mobility. When he tries to do something other than make a good pass he gets hit or catches an edge and gingerly leaves the ice. He has one assist and is -10 in 24 games despite playing with the best players in the world. He cooled McDavid and Draisaitl. He appears to be a bit of a headcase with his on-ice behavior.

You wouldn't be the first to use confirmation bias. Nor the first to go on exhaustively how you do not suffer from it like the rest of us mortals.

 

[Coffey]

I didn’t read 60 pages but the dude f***ing sucks right?

 

[Fourier]

You are misquoting me.

I said, "there were signs that this was a bad player to take an especially 4 million dollar gamble on."

In other words, A bad bet.

You extrapolated that to mean, "What were the signs he was a bad player?"

He wasn't a bad player, but there were signs he was going to be a bad player this year...

He is a small, slow, cerebral player on the cusp of 30 who just had a major leg injury which affects his skating. This inhibits his speed, maneuverability, and ability to avoid checks. Did he succeed? Did he do everything right? How healthy is he? How susceptible to injury is he now due to being a small, even slower player? Will he play the perimeter? He lets it be known that he is having a life moment while being injured. An epipheny? What? It took him a full year to rehab. Could he have worked harder to get back for his team? He's been traded/let go how many times? Is he a bit of a headcase? He was a 30 point player before injury, what will he be now? Should he be signed for 4 million in a flat cap world?

Results. The player this year re-injured himself in game 9 despite playing a perimeter game. He looks small, slow and rarely engages in contact. When he does, he gets hurt. He has been hit hard this year due to his lack of mobility. When he tries to do something other than make a good pass he gets hit or catches an edge and gingerly leaves the ice. He has one assist and is -10 in 24 games despite playing with the best players in the world. He cooled McDavid and Draisaitl. He appears to be a bit of a headcase with his on-ice behavior.

You wouldn't be the first to use confirmation bias. Nor the first to go on exhaustively how you do not suffer from it like the rest of us mortals.

Indeed I did effectively misquote you by mistakenly ignoring the last part of that sentence. My apologies.

And again for the record, I have previously stated that I thought $4M was too high and that the contract was a risk. I also am on the record that I am not a fan of Holland's cap management skills. Moreover, the player you are describing as a possible headcase and a perimeter player is the exact opposite of what he has been his whole career. That was precisely my point. Is it simply a consequence of the injury? Maybe, but honestly, I don't see a huge drop off in his mobility from before. What I do see is a guy who is obviously frustrated with his game. And I don't think it is unreasonable to say that the degree to which his game has dropped off is surprising.

As to the last bolded phrase, I have repeatedly stated that confirmation bias is wired into all of us including myself. That is why I use stats to back up my claims when they can do so. But truthfully I don't see how confirmation bias has anything to do with what I have said in my back and forth here.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Let's hope that he turns his game around and starts scoring after the allstar break.

I kind of hope we replace him long before then. If it was just his scoring, sure. But e is the worst player on the ice every game. Brings literally nothing.

340 forwards have played 250 min 5v5 this year. He has the second worst GF%, only guy worse is on the Sharks who plays with far worse players. He has the WORST GF rate in the entire league. Like, not him scoring, any goals being scored when he is on the ice. With playing a bunch with McDrai, it’s impressively bad. On ice shooting percentage also dead last with a huge gap between him and second worse.
His defensively numbers are all below average too.
So he is the worst offensive player in the league, which is magnified by his linemates and his defensive play does him no favours either. If we would have just signed Erne from the start and played him like we played Brown, the team would have been better and no major cap hit next year.
It’s just baffling how bad he is right now. And he isn’t even getting better, he is getting worse by the game.

 

[Heavy Dee]

You are misquoting me.

I said, "there were signs that this was a bad player to take an especially 4 million dollar gamble on."

In other words, A bad bet.

You extrapolated that to mean, "What were the signs he was a bad player?"

He wasn't a bad player, but there were signs he was going to be a bad player this year...

He is a small, slow, cerebral player on the cusp of 30 who just had a major leg injury which affects his skating. This inhibits his speed, maneuverability, and ability to avoid checks. Did he succeed? Did he do everything right? How healthy is he? How susceptible to injury is he now due to being a small, even slower player? Will he play the perimeter? He lets it be known that he is having a life moment while being injured. An epipheny? What? It took him a full year to rehab. Could he have worked harder to get back for his team? He's been traded/let go how many times? Is he a bit of a headcase? He was a 30 point player before injury, what will he be now? Should he be signed for 4 million in a flat cap world?

Results. The player this year re-injured himself in game 9 despite playing a perimeter game. He looks small, slow and rarely engages in contact. When he does, he gets hurt. He has been hit hard this year due to his lack of mobility. When he tries to do something other than make a good pass he gets hit or catches an edge and gingerly leaves the ice. He has one assist and is -10 in 24 games despite playing with the best players in the world. He cooled McDavid and Draisaitl. He appears to be a bit of a headcase with his on-ice behavior.

You wouldn't be the first to use confirmation bias. Nor the first to go on exhaustively how you do not suffer from it like the rest of us mortals.

Good post. I had wondered the same things about Brown. Whether he was fully fit to play, whether he rehabbed enough etc.
Then I see a feature of him in workout shorts and his lega were the size of broom handles and I had my answer.

 

[rboomercat90]

The crime here isn’t necessarily that the organization signed him to the contract they did. I didn’t like the gamble but I could understand it. what‘s unforgivable here is that he wasn’t waived and or sent to Bakersfield to work on his game before he played his tenth game when it was undeniably clear he wasn’t good enough to be here. It was bad enough that his play was what it was but made so much worse by where the team itself was. The team was in crisis mode starting the season at 2-9-1 with coaches being fired. Maybe you can carry that dead weight around for a while if the team had been winning games like they were expected to but they were off to one of the worst starts in franchise history in a season they were expected to be a contender. That’s the point you have to be focused on what’s best for the team and keeping him around with that bonus looming wasn’t it. That decision soured me on this organization as much as any on the long list of stupid things this team has done in the last 30+ years.

 

[Fishy McScales]

I didn’t read 60 pages but the dude f***ing sucks right?

Aye, that's the tl;dr

 

[Coffey]

Aye, that's the tl;dr

Fok

 

[Drivesaitl]

Indeed I did effectively misquote you by mistakenly ignoring the last part of that sentence. My apologies.

And again for the record, I have previously stated that I thought $4M was too high and that the contract was a risk. I also am on the record that I am not a fan of Holland's cap management skills. Moreover, the player you are describing as a possible headcase and a perimeter player is the exact opposite of what he has been his whole career. That was precisely my point. Is it simply a consequence of the injury? Maybe, but honestly, I don't see a huge drop off in his mobility from before. What I do see is a guy who is obviously frustrated with his game. And I don't think it is unreasonable to say that the degree to which his game has dropped off is surprising.

As to the last bolded phrase, I have repeatedly stated that confirmation bias is wired into all of us including myself. That is why I use stats to back up my claims when they can do so. But truthfully I don't see how confirmation bias has anything to do with what I have said in my back and forth here.

To say that its surprising to you is fine. That comment would never have received push back.

To say it was inexplicable was something else and myself, @ThePhoenixx and others have listed the various reasons to believe that the player was not going to be worth it here, and the underlying varied risks and obstacles that were involved.

We all of course have bias. For many posters, not just you, that wanted Connor Brown here they were seduced by what they thought of his play at peak, they were thinking about THAT Connor Brown and not the one that we would be likely getting. Thats why I've put an emphasis on the more recent circumstances that led to Connor Brown being available, and being here.

btw you still haven't provided ANY citation for your statement that "at least 10 teams" were interested in signing Connor Brown. I can find several citations that say that the Connor Brown "race" lol, was between the Leafs and the Oilers. Unfortunately the Oilers prevailed. It would've been pleasurable to see Connor Brown being so bad in Toronto.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Good post. I had wondered the same things about Brown. Whether he was fully fit to play, whether he rehabbed enough etc.
Then I see a feature of him in workout shorts and his lega were the size of broom handles and I had my answer.

Any chance you could link this? Just interested. I've had similar knee injuries. I've worked hard to increase musculature around the joints and supporting muscles in leg. Most people do. Used to train in same gym with Norm Lacombe, former Oiler, man that guy had some tree trunk legs.

its interesting that Connor Brown is even quoted saying he had to work on his diet. I always find such things interesting as he's a career vet, in the highest paid league in the world. Every degree, every action of such a player should be further to excellence. Especially from a player so often saying he strives to be everything he could be. I wonder what his diet weaknesses were and how extensive. As with Skinner its a bit offputting how casual some of these players are in respect to their optimal performance, optimal diet, etc.

I know of several past Oilers that trained extensively that were extremely serious about every aspect of their health, that ate only what was the best fuel, that dedicated everything. That was back in 80's 90's. Players today have so many benefits in training with better equipment, better health science, more access to everything from rehab, physical therapy and year round access to training facility etc. its never been easier to be physiologically peak. You'd think for several million in annual pay that more players would invest absolutely everything they got to be their best.

 

[Soundwave]

Any chance you could link this? Just interested. I've had similar knee injuries. I've worked hard to increase musculature around the joints and supporting muscles in leg. Most people do. Used to train in same gym with Norm Lacombe, former Oiler, man that guy had some tree trunk legs.

its interesting that Connor Brown is even quoted saying he had to work on his diet. I always find such things interesting as he's a career vet, in the highest paid league in the world. Every degree, every action of such a player should be further to excellence. Especially from a player so often saying he strives to be everything he could be. I wonder what his diet weaknesses were and how extensive. As with Skinner its a bit offputting how casual some of these players are in respect to their optimal performance, optimal diet, etc.

I know of several past Oilers that trained extensively that were extremely serious about every aspect of their health, that ate only what was the best fuel, that dedicated everything. That was back in 80's 90's. Players today have so many benefits in training with better equipment, better health science, more access to everything from rehab, physical therapy and year round access to training facility etc. its never been easier to be physiologically peak. You'd think for several million in annual pay that more players would invest absolutely everything they got to be their best.

RNH is the same way. Dude has never done leg day in his life, lol.

 

[Drivesaitl]

RNH is the same way. Dude has never done leg day in his life, lol.

Used to be. Not sure more recently. He seems to have better mobility and stronger on puck than before, stronger on his skates. I mean to a degree. He's been great for us though past couple seasons and he's ramped up his contribution and worth. Playing the best hockey of his life.

I mean Nuge is someone that dedicated to the degree that he brought world class talent and skills to the draft table and beyond. At this point the player is getting my unconditional support and earning it. Whatever he's doing is working and he's started his own kind of ironman string missing far fewer games in recent yrs.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The crime here isn’t necessarily that the organization signed him to the contract they did. I didn’t like the gamble but I could understand it. what‘s unforgivable here is that he wasn’t waived and or sent to Bakersfield to work on his game before he played his tenth game when it was undeniably clear he wasn’t good enough to be here. It was bad enough that his play was what it was but made so much worse by where the team itself was. The team was in crisis mode starting the season at 2-9-1 with coaches being fired. Maybe you can carry that dead weight around for a while if the team had been winning games like they were expected to but they were off to one of the worst starts in franchise history in a season they were expected to be a contender. That’s the point you have to be focused on what’s best for the team and keeping him around with that bonus looming wasn’t it. That decision soured me on this organization as much as any on the long list of stupid things this team has done in the last 30+ years.

But even early in the thread I spelled out what occurred. That Holland is definitely NOT the type of GM that would even use the 10 game clause. That he would retain the player and that they would keep using him even though it activated the bonus and full pay. It was a given that the team was going to be doing that the moment they signed him provided the guy could even skate.

Of course the team shouldn't have let him get the 10 games but they were going to do that regardless of results or performance. Several posters were telling me that the Oilers would approach this carefully and review, and that the contract was no big deal because the Oilers would get out of the GP bonus if Connor Brown was poor. That was never going to be the case under present management. Unfortunately.

Because some doubt my words this is what I stated in THIS thread July 1st:

[IMG alt="Drivesaitl"]https://hfboards-data.community.forum/avatars/l/292/292061.jpg?1701033890[/IMG]

Drivesaitl​

Time to Drive​

Oct 8, 201743,27251,087Duck hunting

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• #293

Why put it in the clause? Gives the team a decent 10 game window to see if the player still has it. If he doesn’t fit, they Bake or LTIR him. Wish every deal we did had a trial period with deferred money like this one.

Do you think theres any chance the team or Woody would do that with a vet within that 10 game window? I don't. Especially with the "he's only costing us 775k this year teaser. Holland is rarely that fast on the ball in anycase. They'll continue with this guy regardless and pay the piper. The other side is it would look pretty bad around NHLPA circles for the team to cut bait on him. For sure they don't LTIR him. Didn't even do that with Kane.

 

[MessierII]

We’ll see how the rest of the season unfolds but the best move might be to double down. We’re carrying that cap hit next year anyway. See if he’ll take a cheap one year and hope he rebounds.

 

[Heavy Dee]

But even early in the thread I spelled out what occurred. That Holland is definitely NOT the type of GM that would even use the 10 game clause. That he would retain the player and that they would keep using him even though it activated the bonus and full pay. It was a given that the team was going to be doing that the moment they signed him provided the guy could even skate.

Of course the team shouldn't have let him get the 10 games but they were going to do that regardless of results or performance. Several posters were telling me that the Oilers would approach this carefully and review, and that the contract was no big deal because the Oilers would get out of the GP bonus if Connor Brown was poor. That was never going to be the case under present management. Unfortunately.

I agree Holland was probably influenced by others to make this signing.

They may have already been talking to Jackson about a job, McDavids request, or more bad scouting from his son who would have seen him aplenty in the east with the Leafs and Sens.

As bad as it is, it's no where as bad as the Campbell contract which also has Brad's fingerprints all over it.

I suspect Brad Holland will be unemployed once a new GM is named.