Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

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Ah that's too bad. I wonder if the NHL clubs have access to that kind of stuff. They must.

I have always wondered to what extent the value is for a defenceman who is typically known for 'breaking up the cycle' vs one who is typically known for 'breaking out the puck'. I never understood how the analytics guys seemed to love certain defencemen who were known for breaking up cycle like Adam Larsson, yet attacked Kris Russell for blocking shots because it implied he was in the defensive zone too often.

I've viewed the game in terms of D as the most important part being capability of getting the puck off a dump in and being able to cleanly exit your zone with a pass. Funny enough, that has been Edmonton's biggest weakness that I've noticed on the defensive side of the game for forever now. We watched Vegas put a clinic on in this way, and even other teams who are not necessarily known for this always place a precedent on exiting the zone with control. We in Edmonton have seemingly, for personnel reasons or otherwise, have forgone this in favour of skying the puck or chipping off the glass in a panic. Is this a fair analysis or not? Perhaps there is a stat to back this up, I know I used to follow one guy who did the Hurricanes stuff -- Corey Sznajder. He had some real impressive defensive metrics that seemed to align with the eye test.
Evaluating quality, importance, and impact of defensive defensemen is the biggest blindspot I see with expanded analytics work and often interpreted/utilized poorly by many extended fan advocates. Ignore this critical function at one's peril.
 
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Evaluating quality, importance, and impact of defensive defensemen is the biggest blindspot I see with expanded analytics work and often interpreted/utilized poorly by many extended fan advocates. Ignore this critical function at one's peril.
The biggest problem with advanced stats is they can be twisted to fit any narrative you want.

I'm even guilty of using this.
 
Hmmm. Would be interesting though to go indepth though in consideration of existing contracts that Chia signed and the dollar saved value in those vs what Holland has put up. Those two McDrai contracts are among the best deals in the entire league, and its a good point for @duul to bring up as much as I despised Chiarelli, those are solid contracts, and really without equal. They are the two best superstar value contracts in the league arguably.

So one could argue that the lasting remnants of the Chia GM contracts probably need to be weighed out with the contractual gifts he did bestow in our two most significant contracts. Overall I would say theres net benefit that accrued in whats remaining. The reality is that in 2023 Hollands contractual dilemma is mostly of his doing. I gave Holland a long leash of years before stating this sort of thing. It was reasonable to give Holland several years to see a different path. But we're still in a cap mess.

Also, we have stronger topsix under Holland, much stronger. But our D is fairly equivalent to what Chia had or brought in and the goaltending under Talbot was better. One thing I could feel good about last season was the bottomsix was much better, but I don't know that continues this season.
Some good points though I would suggest McDavid's salary was less a negotiation than an open wallet to secure the emergent best player in the world. McDavid set his price point and was always the driver in that negotiation. Draisailt was a fair value deal at that time which he absolutely hit out of the park quickly with help running with McDavid. This is the teeter totter effect of long-term deals to young players - both sides bet on potential and hope the value proposition aligns reasonably even at conclusion. In a rising cap environment this worked out magically.

Holland has had his contract and signing issues for sure. Some big picture considerations along the way included dealing with a scorched earth shallow talent pool left by Chiarelli; loss of core defender Klefbom to career ending injury; and a covid cap frozen salary structure that raised only a couple of million dollars as this team strived to move into contending franchise status. Has some big misses but also leveraged the frozen cap for some pretty solid cornerstone players and their deals.

The biggest problem with advanced stats is they can be twisted to fit any narrative you want.

I'm even guilty of using this.
The interpretation is a killer, imo. Too many people just parrot information and conclusions without understanding the core data and reliability/not involved. This is a high speed, chaos collision sport with a very high degree of random.

Appreciate your post and point of view!
 
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Assuming his injury is completely behind him it sounds like Brown is going to fit in perfectly.
As a matter of fact I get the sense that he is likely to become a part of the core group and this core sounds like its pretty tight.
That important IMO.
Absolutely, the group seems very very tight already and from all accounts are very welcoming. That goes a very long way when it comes to chemistry and team bonding.

Can't wait to see Brown out there filling a similar role to Hyman. A relentless forechecker on each line creates so much space for guys. Yamo tried to fill that role (kind of) but he was just too small.

Curious to see how the top 6 shapes up, I would like for Woody to try and actually stick to line combos most of the year rather than shuffling the top 6 every 5 minutes.
 
Absolutely, the group seems very very tight already and from all accounts are very welcoming. That goes a very long way when it comes to chemistry and team bonding.

Can't wait to see Brown out there filling a similar role to Hyman. A relentless forechecker on each line creates so much space for guys. Yamo tried to fill that role (kind of) but he was just too small.

Curious to see how the top 6 shapes up, I would like for Woody to try and actually stick to line combos most of the year rather than shuffling the top 6 every 5 minutes.

It would be nice to establish the lines and try to get some chemistry going in training camp.

Even at the end of the last year, I didnt really know what the lines were at any given time.
 
Assuming his injury is completely behind him it sounds like Brown is going to fit in perfectly.
As a matter of fact I get the sense that he is likely to become a part of the core group and this core sounds like its pretty tight.
That important IMO.
That said people were saying this kind of stuff about Jack Campbell before one minute of one scrimmage had been played.

I'd counter that a tight core is harder to enter into. Took Taylor Hall quite awhile, most of a season, to be considered in the core in Boston. He's a far better and more accomplished forward.

I'm always curious about this sort of thing but I think some players benefit from just being seen to be likeable. Connor Brown seems like just that kind of person. The guy fits and checks off notions of what hockey players should be like, even look like. With a classic sporting name as well.
 
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That said people were saying this kind of stuff about Jack Campbell before one minute of one scrimmage had been played.

I'd counter that a tight core is harder to enter into. Took Taylor Hall quite awhile, most of a season, to be considered in the core in Boston. He's a far better and more accomplished forward.

I'm always curious about this sort of thing but I think some players benefit from just being seen to be likeable. Connor Brown seems like just that kind of person. The guy fits and checks off notions of what hockey players should be like, even look like. With a classic sporting name as well.
Fair comment on Campbell although there really wasnt much in Campbells history that suggested he was capable of being a #1 goalie.
Brown just has to be what he was before the injury. Unlike Hall Brown has history with the best player on this team as well.
Ultimately though we really do just have to wait and see but I'm liking what I'm hearing so far.
 
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That said people were saying this kind of stuff about Jack Campbell before one minute of one scrimmage had been played.

I'd counter that a tight core is harder to enter into. Took Taylor Hall quite awhile, most of a season, to be considered in the core in Boston. He's a far better and more accomplished forward.

I'm always curious about this sort of thing but I think some players benefit from just being seen to be likeable. Connor Brown seems like just that kind of person. The guy fits and checks off notions of what hockey players should be like, even look like. With a classic sporting name as well.
I don’t think Hall ever became a core piece in Boston. They dumped him for nothing the second they needed cap.
 
It would be nice to establish the lines and try to get some chemistry going in training camp.

Even at the end of the last year, I didnt really know what the lines were at any given time.
For sure. It's a blessing to be able to play McDrai together but it's also shit for the other lines because they can never build any sort of chemistry. Or it seems like some chemistry is starting and then we break up that line because another is struggling.

The bottom 6 is just as bad, its a constant shuffle down there as well
 
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For sure. It's a blessing to be able to play McDrai together but it's also shit for the other lines because they can never build any sort of chemistry. Or it seems like some chemistry is starting and then we break up that line because another is struggling.

The bottom 6 is just as bad, its a constant shuffle down there as well

Yeah the bottom 6 is honestly about the same. I dont think the 11-7 helps with establishing line chemistry either.

The unpredictability of the line combinations can be an advantage sometimes. I think Woodcroft was able to mess with McLellan and Sutter in the playoffs with them a bit.

But I think establishing line chemistry is important in the regular season and majority of the post season as well.

For as many goals as the Oilers score, sometimes it feels like they arent really in sync (on 5 on 5). On the PP they can clearly read each others minds.
 
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Yeah the bottom 6 is honestly about the same. I dont think the 11-7 helps with establishing line chemistry either.

The unpredictability of the line combinations can be an advantage sometimes. I think Woodcroft was able to mess with McLellan and Sutter in the playoffs with them a bit.

But I think establishing line chemistry is important in the regular season and majority of the post season as well.

For as many goals as the Oilers score, sometimes it feels like they arent really in sync (on 5 on 5). On the PP they can clearly read each others minds.
Imo the main purpose of the 11-7 is managing the energy levels of key players. We do not have an elite defense so one way around that is to have more D so we can keep the top guys fresher and more effective. Also, the dynamic of the forwards is that McDavid and Drai play with bottom sixers. That has some benefit to those bottom sixers ( or rather bottom fivers I guess) and also gives more minutes to McDavid and Draisaitl, who are horses. Our other top sixers are older and were never close to as good as McDrai when they were younger, and so limiting their minutes is important to keep them effective. Imo 11-7 suits our team in particular

But there is good argument that limiting McDrai in the regular season makes some sense. It is a marathon. But, McDavid and Draisaitl may prefer to play more as well

Also, just looking at the contracts it appears that our 1 extra skater will be a Dman. 11-7 will continue for chosen games

Edit: also imo chemistry is important but also a trap. The ideal is to develop different arrangements of lines and have them still be effective. Sticking to the same lines and keeping the traditional format makes things smoother, but not just for us. It's also smoother for the tacticians of the opposition
 
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I’m sure it’s nothing. But on The Drop they showed a clip of the phone call Holland made AFTER signing Brown.

“We’re excited to have you… how’s your health by the way, are you skating?”

I dunno, I always assumed you looked into a players health, even asked them about it, before signing them.
 
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I don’t think Hall ever became a core piece in Boston. They dumped him for nothing the second they needed cap.

Needed cap space for ... Lucic, lol! I still can't believe Hall was replaced by Looch 2 times.

Neither was that smart of a move by the respective team of course. Bruins are in a lot tougher than we were though, all their deferred bonus cap scamming and all. That we are doing now too of course.
 
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I don’t think Hall ever became a core piece in Boston. They dumped him for nothing the second they needed cap.
Hall was a quality player, but a bit of a one man show. He drove the offense but did not play well with other guys. McDavid's arrival made him superfluous. That said he'd be a great player as a trade deadline acquisition to any contender.
 
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Needed cap space for ... Lucic, lol! I still can't believe Hall was replaced by Looch 2 times.

Neither was that smart of a move by the respective team of course. Bruins are in a lot tougher than we were though, all their deferred bonus cap scamming and all. That we are doing now too of course.
At least this time Lucic isn't expected to be a top line player. Should just be a depth forward.
 
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I'm not saying Brown is the answer, but...

If McDavid has a full season with healthy wingers not flubbing the puck like Jesse and Yamo, he has a real shot at breaking the 200 point mark.

I'm excited to see what Brian can do
 
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I like Brown and he could be the perfect fit, but if he doesn’t fit into the top 6 we’re not really moving the dial. That is unless he’s good on the PK.

Optimistic but expectations might be a little too high.
 
I'm not saying Brown is the answer, but...

If McDavid has a full season with healthy wingers not flubbing the puck like Jesse and Yamo, he has a real shot at breaking the 200 point mark.

I'm excited to see what Brian can do
200 points? Come on now. Don't be silly. lol. But he should be able to at least hit 150 again. I would say with better wingers as you mentioned maybe upwards of 170 could be doable though obviously still extremely difficult. But we will see.
 
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