Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

[Drivesaitl]

Wait so Brown doesn't bring intangibles but Kostin does? I've told you already, go watch Brown play before you comment on him.

-Brown has 448 games of NHL experience to Kostins 103.
-Brown doesn't take stupid Penalties. His last season he only had 10PIM in 64GP (5 minors). Kostin had 66PIM (17 minors).
-Brown has had two 20+ goal seasons while Kostin has a career high 11G (with Edmonton).
-Brown has a sustainable 11.6 shooting % (career). Kostin is riding an unsustainable 19.6% last season.
-Brown played 20:03 TOI/GP in 2021/2022. Kostin was half that at 10:04 TOI/GP.
-Brown plays the PK, Kostin doesnt.
-Brown cost us $775k this year, Kostin took $2M in cap (plus the 500k from Yams buyout).

They aren't even close to the same player.

Specious. You're comparing a player who is much older, and nearer to career end with a player that is getting his foot wet at this level. Of course Brown is going to have more GP.

Complaining about Kostins penalties for a tough of nails player who fights, takes matching roughing penalties and sticks up for opponents is asinine. Kostin is not undisciplined, he's a warrior. Those will get penalties. I'll take that player over a standing at the bus stop player any day of the week.

You cite off half these stats without apparently realizing that I was speaking of recency results. At present Kostin gave his most recent team just as much as Brown did. Identical in EV pts. Brown in last season played vs Kostin here. Brown got some PP pts, Kostin hasn't been used much on PP here but might be in Detroit.

Theres no reason Kostin shouldn't be getting more minutes than he played here. I would give him more EV minutes than he had and I would spot him on PP. He's got a very good shot. Kostin likely gets 15mins night range in Detroit.

lmao at the bolded as well. Overall one year of Brown will cost about the same as two years of Kostin. If we're factoring in the entire contract parameters. But of course selective not to..

Does it even occur to you that Connor Brown is 5.5yrs older than Kostin? What do you think the stats and GP could look like if Kostin has a full career in NHL. Your first bolded is silly to state because its obviously apples vs oranges in the respective career paths. Of the two Kostin is a much more highly touted first round pick. Connor is 6th round. Its fair to say Kostin could well have the greater talent upside. Kostin until an injury in draft year was touted to go much higher in first round.

 

[tardigrade81]

Brown is a solid player. It’s a good signing.

Glad I could clear the air here.

 

[guymez]

It may go well, but I don't think it's possible to know how it will be as the injury may play a part even if he manages to play through the season (which is likely). There's a research on pubmed (2020) that says the following in the conclusion:

Despite a high return to play, the performance after an ACL injury demonstrated a decrease in points and goals per game and per season.

Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries in the National Hockey League: Epidemiology and Performance Impact - PubMed

Anterior cruciate ligament injuries occur infrequently, as it relates to other hockey injuries. Despite a high return to play, the performance after an ACL injury demonstrated a decrease in points and goals per game and per season.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

I am not so sure that they accounted for all the variables. It sure isnt evident with the information on the link you provided.
Recovery time is the big one and that would absolutely impact performance. Players who came back too soon have issues.

Brown is taking the maximum time required and that bodes extremely well for a full recovery.
So the probability that the 2023/24 version of Brown is the same player he was before the injury is quite high.

Time will tell.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Brown might not get much PP time here, but he’s the perfect replacement in the Hyman spot should Zack miss any time to injury. You could plug him in there and not miss a beat. Plus he’ll be a fixture on the pk, and his two way game is miles ahead of the likes of Duchene or Domi. There’s not a better fit for what the Oilers needed for under a million dollar cap hit. It’s a calculated risk by Holland to maximize the roster based on where the salary cap will be this year and next.

Brown has scored one PP goal in the last 3 hockey seasons. Brown has 8 PP goals his whole career. Pretty clearly we'd miss a beat on PP goal scoring. I guess Brown more of a setup guy but we have no shortage of those. Hyman is of great value on our first unit PP because he adds another scoring threat. Brown statistically isn't that.

 

[guymez]

Theres no argument regarding an unknown? Really?

Thats not reality, its supposition on an event that has not occurred. Detroit may well get more from Kostin than we get from Brown. Its a possibility.

Also that Connor Brown will not be getting much PP usage here so the 9PP assists he bagged in last season played are unlikely to be a thing here. He may get 2nd unit time but that unit barely hits the ice.

PP time is a red herring.
It doesnt really impact his effectiveness as a player.

This has been covered multiple times but here it is again....

Lets take a look at Kostin...can he play on the PK...nope. Can he play against the other teams best players at 5x5...nope.
Does he have defensive holes in his game...yes. Which is why he isnt a very strong 5x5 player against the other teams best players. Does he have consistency issues...yes.
So where does that leave him as a player right now....as a bottom 6 player who occasionally fights but needs to get fed soft minutes.
All that for $2M on this years and next years cap....no thanks.
Now he may well get better as a player. I expect he will but at this time (what he brings right now) and for that price he isnt what the team needs to continue being a contender.
Too many question marks.

So lets look at Brown....
PK...yes. Strong 5x5 player against the other teams best players...yes.
Strong defenisve game...yes.

So the only real unknown is how will Brown respond to his rehab of the injury.
For that see my response to @Whyme in post 453.

 

[OilerTyler]

Here is a thought.

In 2014, Jagr signed a contract with New Jersey that had a base salary of $3.5 million and $2 million in performance bonuses based on games played. I can’t find out how many games played were required to meet the condition but on his previous contract with a similar condition the number was 40. He played 57 games with the Devils and was traded to Florida at the trade deadline where he played 20 more. Florida had to pay the performance bonus.

Theoretically, if we traded Brown to a team after the playoffs would they be able to eat the bonus for us? If we sent him to a team with more than $3.25 million in cap space, it wouldn’t negatively affect them in any way other than having to pay the money. I wonder what kind of picks that would cost us?

 

[Drivesaitl]

PP time is a red herring.
It doesnt really impact his effectiveness as a player.

This has been covered multiple times but here it is again....

Lets take a look at Kostin...can he play on the PK...nope. Can he play against the other teams best players at 5x5...nope.
Does he have defensive holes in his game...yes. Which is why he isnt a very strong 5x5 player against the other teams best players. Does he have consistency issues...yes.
So where does that leave him as a player....as a bottom 6 player who occasionally fights but needs to get fed soft minutes.
All that for $2M....no thanks.
Now he may well get better as a player. I expect he will but at this time (what he brings right now) and for that price he isnt what the team needs to continue being a contender.
Too many question marks.

So lets look at Brown....
PK...yes. Strong 5x5 player against the other teams best players...yes.
Strong defenisve game...yes.

So the only real unknown is how will Brown respond to his rehab of the injury.
For that see my response to @Whyme in post 453.

Kostin can play topsix and looked excellent with Drai almost any time he got toi with him. Theres a profound difference between how a player was used and whether they can be used.

Kostin is an exceptional talent that was touted to go early in draft year prior to a shoulder injury dropping him lower. In his draft class he was considered one of the best players. Contrast this with Brown a 6th round pick and its kind of hilarious people all concluding what Kostin can do and what his ceiling is. Kostin was 23 when season ended. He's a young player carving his way that will probably grow his game more. Its distortion to say this can ONLY be a 4th line player. Detroit already thinks differently.

The defensive conclusions are interesting too. In last two season in 68GP Brown is -18 with high GA. Much of that being in bottomsix play. Kostin over last 68GP here is +14 in regular season and playoffs combined and is RARELY on ice for GA.

yet all I hear is this fiction that Kostin is horrible defensively.

Realize that Connor Brown may have dropped off, and really his stats ain't that pretty recent seasons. Brown is turning 30. Kostin is young and turning into playing prime and with only upside.

 

[Whyme]

PP time is a red herring.
It doesnt really impact his effectiveness as a player.

This has been covered multiple times but here it is again....

Lets take a look at Kostin...can he play on the PK...nope. Can he play against the other teams best players at 5x5...nope.
Does he have defensive holes in his game...yes. Which is why he isnt a very strong 5x5 player against the other teams best players. Does he have consistency issues...yes.
So where does that leave him as a player right now....as a bottom 6 player who occasionally fights but needs to get fed soft minutes.
All that for $2M on this years and next years cap....no thanks.
Now he may well get better as a player. I expect he will but at this time (what he brings right now) and for that price he isnt what the team needs to continue being a contender.
Too many question marks.

So lets look at Brown....
PK...yes. Strong 5x5 player against the other teams best players...yes.
Strong defenisve game...yes.

So the only real unknown is how will Brown respond to his rehab of the injury.
For that see my response to @Whyme in post 453.

With all respect that can be said a hundred times, but IMO it's not that black and white. If Brown can be what he was before the injury I agree that those are very valuable sides in his game. I certainly don't want to downplay that. But if Kostin can keep 70% of his production with an increased TOI that'll also be very valuable and worth more than 2 million. That'd be almost 22 ES goals per full season (with about 20 minutes per game), but of course we don't know if he'll manage to do that. As for PP we can't say much about Kostin as he didn't get any of it, but it's not an impossible thought he'll get to try that next season.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I cant wait to hear Kostin brought up regarding everything this year as Drivesaitl gets attached to a player.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I cant wait to hear Kostin brought up regarding everything this year as Drivesaitl gets attached to a player.

For sure I'll follow his progress. I love the player. Modern day Eddie Shack to those in the crowd that know that type of player. His limited usage this season and playoffs was one of the stupidest things I've ever seen from coaching staff. The guys a gamer, a stud, and the Coach too thick to use him.

Recognizing a trend Woody didn't use Holloway, Broberg, Nemo either and Bourgault didn't even get a look. being a young player probably the best thing for Kostin is to get out of here. Woody is more a dinosaur coach than his predecessors were.

Wondering too if the team doesn't just walk from McLeod. Coach seems to dislike prospects. No matter how good they are.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Kostin can play topsix and looked excellent with Drai almost any time he got toi with him. Theres a profound difference between how a player was used and whether they can be used.

Kostin is an exceptional talent that was touted to go early in draft year prior to a shoulder injury dropping him lower. In his draft class he was considered one of the best players. Contrast this with Brown a 6th round pick and its kind of hilarious people all concluding what Kostin can do and what his ceiling is. Kostin was 23 when season ended. He's a young player carving his way that will probably grow his game more. Its distortion to say this can ONLY be a 4th line player. Detroit already thinks differently.

The defensive conclusions are interesting too. In last two season in 68GP Brown is -18 with high GA. Much of that being in bottomsix play. Kostin over last 68GP here is +14 in regular season and playoffs combined and is RARELY on ice for GA.

yet all I hear is this fiction that Kostin is horrible defensively.

Realize that Connor Brown may have dropped off, and really his stats ain't that pretty recent seasons. Brown is turning 30. Kostin is young and turning into playing prime and with only upside.

I'm sure Kostins +/- had nothing to do with the fact that he had a 1.04 PDO while he was here.

For sure I'll follow his progress. I love the player. Modern day Eddie Shack to those in the crowd that know that type of player. His limited usage this season and playoffs was one of the stupidest things I've ever seen from coaching staff. The guys a gamer, a stud, and the Coach too thick to use him.

Recognizing a trend Woody didn't use Holloway, Broberg, Nemo either and Bourgault didn't even get a look. being a young player probably the best thing for Kostin is to get out of here. Woody is more a dinosaur coach than his predecessors were.

Wondering too if the team doesn't just walk from McLeod. Coach seems to dislike prospects. No matter how good they are.

The guy is inconsistent, and consistently making the wrong play in the defensive zone.

Theres a reason he has getting sub 10 minutes a game in the playoffs.

90% of his goals game in 2 heaters of play, he was doing nothing the other 46 games.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Specious. You're comparing a player who is much older, and nearer to career end with a player that is getting his foot wet at this level. Of course Brown is going to have more GP.

Complaining about Kostins penalties for a tough of nails player who fights, takes matching roughing penalties and sticks up for opponents is asinine. Kostin is not undisciplined, he's a warrior. Those will get penalties. I'll take that player over a standing at the bus stop player any day of the week.

You cite off half these stats without apparently realizing that I was speaking of recency results. At present Kostin gave his most recent team just as much as Brown did. Identical in EV pts. Brown in last season played vs Kostin here. Brown got some PP pts, Kostin hasn't been used much on PP here but might be in Detroit.

Theres no reason Kostin shouldn't be getting more minutes than he played here. I would give him more EV minutes than he had and I would spot him on PP. He's got a very good shot. Kostin likely gets 15mins night range in Detroit.

lmao at the bolded as well. Overall one year of Brown will cost about the same as two years of Kostin. If we're factoring in the entire contract parameters. But of course selective not to..

Does it even occur to you that Connor Brown is 5.5yrs older than Kostin? What do you think the stats and GP could look like if Kostin has a full career in NHL. Your first bolded is silly to state because its obviously apples vs oranges in the respective career paths. Of the two Kostin is a much more highly touted first round pick. Connor is 6th round. Its fair to say Kostin could well have the greater talent upside. Kostin until an injury in draft year was touted to go much higher in first round.

I personally don't view the discussion as Kostin vs Brown. Brown is clearly more established career and production wise coming in to fill a ginormous weakness at top six RW. He's not optimal but his circumstances enabled him to stick the landing in Edmonton. Not a value contract.

The discussion I think is the opportunity cost of hypothetically choosing between Kostin vs. Foegele. They are pretty comparable production wise with Kostin breaking out in a favourable new environment. Kostin broke out in his second chance opportunity including big goals and better playoff production with fewer minutes. Add important intangibles for this team that included functional toughness, heavy and mean game, a better shot, and decent skill package. Lot of utility on a deal that would have been $750,000 cheaper on a cap threshold team and a safe, young cheap option in Holloway if Kostin stalled out as a 4W.

All hypothetical thinking in terms of Kostin or Foegele but the Oil lost some valuable elements to their bottom six that are in rare supply on their roster and not in their prospect pipeline.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'm sure Kostins +/- had nothing to do with the fact that he had a 1.04 PDO while he was here.


The guy is inconsistent, and consistently making the wrong play in the defensive zone.

Theres a reason he has getting sub 10 minutes a game in the playoffs.

PDO is really an unsubstantiated stat. Fails to take into account that some players can make a difference through such things as having a good shot, being hell to play against, and backing opponents off. A lot of NHL advanced stats are still at stages of assessment. Wouldn't subcribe too much to that one.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

PDO is really an unsubstantiated stat. Fails to take into account that some players can make a difference through such things as having a good shot, being hell to play against, and backing opponents off. A lot of NHL advanced stats are still at stages of assessment. Wouldn't subcribe too much to that one.

PDO isnt an advanced stat.

That PDO is higher than anything McDavid has done in his career.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I personally don't view the discussion as Kostin vs Brown. Brown is clearly more established career and production wise coming in to fill a ginormous weakness at top six RW. He's not optimal but his circumstances enabled him to stick the landing in Edmonton. Not a value contract.

The discussion I think is the opportunity cost of hypothetically choosing between Kostin vs. Foegele. They are pretty comparable production wise with Kostin breaking out in a favourable new environment. Kostin broke out in his second chance opportunity including big goals and better playoff production with fewer minutes. Add important intangibles for this team that included functional toughness, heavy and mean game, a better shot, and decent skill package. Lot of utility on a deal that would have been $750,000 cheaper on a cap threshold team and a safe, young cheap option in Holloway if Kostin stalled out as a 4W.

All hypothetical thinking in terms of Kostin or Foegele but the Oil lost some valuable elements to their bottom six that are in rare supply on their roster and not in their prospect pipeline.

For sure. I've considered this aspect as well. Pretty clearly Kostin outperformed Foegele but is younger and that seems not as wanted a quantity around here. I do think Foegele also took some stupid and even selfish penalties. Foegele seems to get them 200ft from his net. In a heartbeat I have a Kostin over a Foegele on my club.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'm sure Kostins +/- had nothing to do with the fact that he had a 1.04 PDO while he was here.


The guy is inconsistent, and consistently making the wrong play in the defensive zone.

Theres a reason he has getting sub 10 minutes a game in the playoffs.

90% of his goals game in 2 heaters of play, he was doing nothing the other 46 games.

This is the reason why Kostin wasn't getting minutes.

Simple as that. If I had any faith in the coaching staff I could conclude that there was something on merit that limited Kostin minutes. But tools like Yams and Foegele etc were getting regular minutes and doing very little with them. Woody couldn't even spot matchups that were getting burned alive in the playoffs. Really I wouldn't want to play for this guy either.

 

[Drivesaitl]

PDO isnt an advanced stat.

That PDO is higher than anything McDavid has done in his career.

Whatever one calls it PDO is overrated by its backers. This is one of the better summaries I've seen.

Against PDO

First off, let's all remind what PDO is: From Wikipedia PDO, called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage. PDO is usually measured at even strength, and based on the theory [ha-ha – my note] that most teams will ultimately regress toward a sum of...

forums.hfboards.com

Theres a lot more going on with PDO than people citing it would fathom. The discussion on PDO there in the thread is excellent in anycase, and brilliant OP.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Whatever one calls it PDO is overrated by its backers. This is one of the better summaries I've seen.

Against PDO

First off, let's all remind what PDO is: From Wikipedia PDO, called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage. PDO is usually measured at even strength, and based on the theory [ha-ha – my note] that most teams will ultimately regress toward a sum of...

forums.hfboards.com

Theres a lot more going on with PDO than people citing it would fathom. The discussion on PDO there in the thread is excellent in anycase, and brilliant OP.

That really doesn't do much to disprove what I said.

Yamamoto was also a big + player last year, yet you seem to harp on him all the time.

+/- is also just as useless as PDO when evaluating players.

 

[Fourier]

OK, lets play that game. Kostin on the whole had 14G 12A 26pts in the 68 games he played with the Oilers. Connor Brown pots only 10G and 29A for 39 pts in the 64 games he played in last season he played. (plus zero pts in the 4 games he played last season making it an equal 68GP) But 9 of those are PP pts. For an apples to apples comparison Kostin produced more pts, more goals, more everything in EV/60mins. Brown played a lot more EV minutes and only had the same 26EV pts as Kostin. Maybe people forgetting that all of Kostins pts are EV?

The one thing Brown is better at is pk. But Kostin brings all kinds of intangibles.

What game are you playing? You are using a spurious argument when you get into EVpts/60 with such a small sample size unless you want to argue that Jeff Skinner is a better player than Connor McDavid? Or that Morgan Geekie is a better scorer that Leon.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

There is no argument here. As of right now Brown has proven to be the far better player.

 

[Drivesaitl]

What game are you playing? You are using a spurious argument when you get into EVpts/60 with such a small sample size unless you want to argue that Jeff Skinner is a better player than Connor McDavid? Or that Morgan Geekie is a better scorer that Leon.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

There is no argument here. As of right now Brown has proven to be the far better player.

Brown hasn't looked much better in recent seasons. brown turning 30 on downside, Kostin just turned 24 on upside. I'm just citing recent stats in response to people that state that theres no comparison to the players or what they can contribute.

Again its not a known that Brown is a better player Now. Or appreciably better.

Teams require studs like Kostin in the lineup. Kostin also a glue guy in a lineup having peoples back, lightening up the room etc. I've rarely seen an incoming player that was such a big personality and that attempted to get ingrained in the room so quickly. On and off the ice Kostin appeared to do everything to get acceptance here. The players seemed to love him. Too bad the coach didn't.

I don't think your stat trick link worked as intended, so not able to discern what you were citing with that.

 

[Fourier]

Brown hasn't looked much better in recent seasons. brown turning 30 on downside, Kostin just turned 24 on upside. I'm just citing recent stats in response to people that state that theres no comparison to the players or what they can contribute.

Again its not a known that Brown is a better player Now. Or appreciably better.

Teams require studs like Kostin in the lineup. Kostin also a glue guy in a lineup having peoples back, lightening up the room etc. I've rarely seen an incoming player that was such a big personality and that attempted to get ingrained in the room so quickly. On and off the ice Kostin appeared to do everything to get acceptance here. The players seemed to love him. Too bad the coach didn't.

I don't think your stat trick link worked as intended, so not able to discern what you were citing with that.

When you say Brown hasn't "looked" better recently are you talking about watching him play. I ask because with all due respect your posts have suggested that you have few viewings of the player.

When McDavid came back from his injury would you have said.. We don't know if McDavid will be as good as Archibald or would you have gone with the long odds and said that if he was cleared to play past record meant that McDavid would probably be a better player? Obviously this is an extreme example but in the case at hand it is 100% undeniable that up to this point one of these guys has established himself as a much better player than the other. There is no plausible argument to say otherwise.

I will ask this though...Who would you have traded to fit Kostin in??

As for the link, try sorting on 5 vs 5 Pts/60. Leon was 41st in the NHL amongst players with at least 300 minutes just behind Ilya Mikhayev.

 

[Drivesaitl]

When you say Brown hasn't "looked" better recently are you talking about watching him play. I ask because with all due respect your posts have suggested that you have few viewings of the player.

When McDavid came back from his injury would you have said.. We don't know if McDavid will be as good as Archibald or would you have gone with the long odds and said that if he was cleared to play past record meant that McDavid would probably be a better player? Obviously this is an extreme example but in the case at hand it is 100% undeniable that up to this point one of these guys has established himself as a much better player than the other. There is no plausible argument to say otherwise.

I will ask this though...Who would you have traded to fit Kostin in??

Foegele. All day.

As for Brown I'm saying the stats don't look better. As I've stated in anycase nobody has seen what Brown looks like for the last 16mths. Missing a season, a full season for a player of this age probably isn't a good thing. I don't see how the guy is going to hit the ground running. How many older players comeback well from missing an entire season due to injury?

Of the two I think its reasonable to suggest that Kostin was more the known, and even a safer bet. I understand what Holland did contractually, I don't agree with it.

edit to edit but theres been appreciable drop off in Drai's EV play. I would say on the Oilers particularly the reliance on PP production is becoming more than ideal. A great thing to have, but when the league isn't handing us PP's like in playoffs the value is minimized.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Foegele. All day.

As for Brown I'm saying the stats don't look better. As I've stated in anycase nobody has seen what Brown looks like for the last 16mths. Missing a season, a full season for a player of this age probably isn't a good thing. I don't see how the guy is going to hit the ground running. How many older players comeback well from missing an entire season due to injury?

Of the two I think its reasonable to suggest that Kostin was more the known, and even a safer bet. I understand what Holland did contractually, I don't agree with it.

You put down stats, say you don’t watch the player, and still post this tripe.

Just admit you don’t know what you’re talking about, replacement

 

[Drivesaitl]

You put down stats, say you don’t watch the player, and still post this tripe.

Just admit you don’t know what you’re talking about, replacement

Hi Tad.

 

[OilerTyler]

You put down stats, say you don’t watch the player, and still post this tripe.

Just admit you don’t know what you’re talking about, replacement

He’s at over 90 posts in this thread, most of them bad takes. I think it’s time for people to stop responding.

The majority of Oilers fans are happy with this signing but you’d never know it because of the sheer quantity of posts the few haters are posting.