GDT: Oilers @ Leafs Monday March 29 7pm SN

[Jarqui]

I thought Campbell got banged in the last Oilers game when he was down - well before the end of the game. Not surprised to hear he may have tweaked something. It looked like he might have hurt something a bit then.

Last I heard, they're waiting for medical info on Andersen. Dubas hasn't got cap space to waste. He should have the medical info well before the trade deadline to make a decision on whether the Leafs require another goalie.

From what we know, it is certainly not obvious to me that Dubas MUST get another goalie now.

 

[NK94]

I've never said any of this, perhaps you've confused me with someone else.



You can cherry pick all the numbers you want, bottom line is that two games from now we could be in virtual tie with EDM in the standings. Like it or not, the standings show these two teams to be roughly in the same tier.

If we're so much better they are, why aren't we further ahead of them in the standings?

Did you just miss the recent (and first slump in Keefe's tenure as coach) Toronto just got out of that was spearheaded by Andersen and his .857 SV% stretch or what?

You can't accuse me of cherry-picking when you just did the same thing in attempt to discredit my point. This wouldn't even be a conversation if it wasn't for that 7 game stretch... that still has the Leafs sitting 3 points ahead of Edmonton with a game in hand. The Leafs had a slump and the Oilers still couldn't overthrow them. Congrats to them!

 

[Clark4Ever]

Are they starting Hutchinson because they’re detecting anxiety levels in Campbell or something? The way he was talking after the win was a little intense so maybe they want to let him relax a bit. Starting Hutch ain’t it though.

Campbell has documented issues regarding anxiety and being too hard on himself mentally, but it seems like this is more of a precautionary physical maintenance issue with him.

Either way, as much as we all love the guy, he is far from a sure thing the rest of the way. He's never been a starter, and I don't know if he has the durability or mental fortitude to become a reliable starter for us.

Dubas really needs to address this situation before the deadline because as it stands, we're built like a house of cards going into the playoffs because of our goaltending.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Did you just miss the recent (and first slump in Keefe's tenure as coach) Toronto just got out of that was spearheaded by Andersen and his .857 SV% stretch or what?

I didn't miss anything. What's your point?

You can't accuse me of cherry-picking when you just did the same in attempt to discredit my point. This wouldn't even be a conversation if it wasn't for that 7 game stretch... that still has the Leafs sitting 3 points ahead of them with a game in hand.

I keep pointing to the overall standings (the opposite of cherry picking).

3 points, wow is the gap really that big? If that's enough to put them on a separate tier, how many tiers would you say there are in the NHL? What if by the weekend, EDM is ahead of us in the standings, would we then be on the same tier?

 

[bossram]

Edmonton claimed Stalock off waivers. They’ve addressed their third goalie situation as far as I’m concerned.

Dubas should be all over guys like Reimer, Bernier, and Ullmark.

I don't think anyone is really comfortable if they're in the position of turning to Stalock. And like I said, those kinds of guys on waivers are probably not going to make it to the Leafs.

I think Bernier could be available, but he's injured right now. I actually don't think Carolina will trade Reimer considering Mrazek's injury history. Maybe we can get Ullmark, but I think Buffalo will re-sign him so they have a goalie who at least gives them a chance to actually stay in the game.

They went into the season with 3 decent goalies, but lost one to waivers and the other two are injured. It's just unfortunate and there aren't a ton of options out there that teams seem willing to deal.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Campbell has documented issues regarding anxiety and being too hard on himself mentally, but it seems like this is more of a precautionary physical maintenance issue with him.

Either way, as much as we all love the guy, he is far from a sure thing the rest of the way. He's never been a starter, and I don't know if he has the durability or mental fortitude to become a reliable starter for us.

Dubas really needs to address this situation before the deadline because as it stands, we're built like a house of cards going into the playoffs because of our goaltending.

Yup. Anyone thinking Andersen is anything more than a question mark at this point is kidding themselves. Getting a new goalie at this point is going to be very difficult but as I said earlier, I sure would like to know what Dubas is thinking right about now.

 

[Stephen]

Well we do have Veini V. waiting in the wings so if he’s anything like Anton Forsberg you probably want to give him a test to see if he’s a scrappy battler who can step up in a clutch situation or if he’s just a dud farmhand.

 

[Subway Schenn]

Yeah I mean we don’t expect Campbell to be Hasek every night and a shutout isn’t the benchmark. He wasn’t strong on one or two of the Edmonton goals but what’s important for him to feel good about is he made the money saves. Come on Jack, don’t beat yourself up unnecessarily.

That's not it. He's obviously not 100%... Took the day off yesterday, back on the ice today but Keefe clearly doesn't want to rush it....

Really unfortunate timing, the injuries seem to be a recurring theme and hopeful he can string together a few in a row.

 

[NK94]

I didn't miss anything. What's your point?



I keep pointing to the overall standings (the opposite of cherry picking).

3 points, wow is the gap really that big? If that's enough to put them on a separate tier, how many tiers would you say there are in the NHL? What if by the weekend, EDM is ahead of us in the standings, would we then be on the same tier?

You missed everything. The Oilers are a middle of a pack team that benefitted from beating up on Ottawa and benefitted from the Leafs having their first slump in Keefe's tenure as head coach. They're not as good defensively as Toronto and their depth after RNH has been non-existent. You don't need analytics to understand this. They're not the same.

I don't think anyone is really comfortable if they're in the position of turning to Stalock. And like I said, those kinds of guys on waivers are probably not going to make it to the Leafs.

I think Bernier could be available, but he's injured right now. I actually don't think Carolina will trade Reimer considering Mrazek's injury history. Maybe we can get Ullmark, but I think Buffalo will re-sign him so they have a goalie who at least gives them a chance to actually stay in the game.

They went into the season with 3 decent goalies, but lost one to waivers and the other two are injured. It's just unfortunate and there aren't a ton of options out there that teams seem willing to deal.

Stalock is a solid third goalie and he put up a .910 SV% last season. Andersen getting anywhere close to that when he comes back would be a god damn miracle seeing as he has a .903 SV% since March of 2019.

 

[Deebo]

3 points, wow is the gap really that big? If that's enough to put them on a separate tier, how many tiers would you say there are in the NHL? What if by the weekend, EDM is ahead of us in the standings, would we then be on the same tier?

You viewed the Leafs as clear favourites over Columbus even though they were even in the overall standings.

 

[Cotton]

Andersen apologist - can you explain what you mean by this term?

We've dominated EDM head to head this season but if they're not even on the same tier as us, why is their record against the rest of the teams better than ours?

Even if you were right (you aren’t) that’s an incredibly flawed argument.

The glaring difference is they beat up on Ottawa, we tie or are better against all the other teams save the Jets who we simply haven’t played as much. We are actually 11-4-1 vs playoff teams while they are 7-10. And of their 7 wins against playoff teams 6 came against backups. Even more telling is the goal scoring ratios from those matchups;

Oilers vs PO teams 43GF - 57GA
Leafs vs PO teams 58GF - 38GA

Oilers vs Non-PO 76GF - 44GA
Leafs vs Non-PO 58GF - 47GA

We score the same regardless and have had some of the worst goaltending in the league from Andersen. The Oilers stat pad against weak teams and fall to earth against better comp. Simply put, the Oilers are a paper tiger.

 

[Jojalu]

I didn't miss anything. What's your point?



I keep pointing to the overall standings (the opposite of cherry picking).

3 points, wow is the gap really that big? If that's enough to put them on a separate tier, how many tiers would you say there are in the NHL? What if by the weekend, EDM is ahead of us in the standings, would we then be on the same tier?

I kind of agree with you. Without the head-to-head, Edmonton has fared better than Toronto in the division. They also finished higher than the Leafs last year. However, they play a style that is favourable to the Leafs and I would love to see them in the playoffs.

McDavid can win a couple of games in a series by himself(with Drai) but I like the Leafs in the end

 

[Not My Tempo]

Not a single game this season is a must-win at this point, we could go .250 the rest of the way and comfortably make the playoffs. Does it really matter who we face? Price going god mode is just a big a risk as whatever McDavid or the Jets can throw at us.

Honestly none of the other playoff Canadian teams scare me.

Winnipeg has a solid 46.55 xGF%. A healthy Matthews, and he would have put away 2 goals against them in each of our games with how many clean looks they give.

Edmonton is literally just McDavid and Draisaitl. Even last game where they came alive and worked some magic, our second line came alive and matched them. Our D is also better.

Montreal is meh. Opposite of Winnipeg. Great analytics team but lacks the star power to actually make them look scary.

The biggest weakness of ours this year has been goaltending. Andersen's -10.91 GSAx is terrible.

 

[willmma]

This is our last game against the oil

We managed to earn 13 points. The oil got 5.
If they win in regulation tonight they would end up with 7 total. That means we practically (almost) got double their points playing against each other this season.


Now, lets win this one and triple them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I never complain about stats

Lmao, what? You constantly complain about stats. You literally dismissed a valuable statistic the other day with no substantiation or reasoning because it didn't "feel" right for you one time. The only thing you've done more lately is make excuses for Andersen.

 

[Martin Skoula]

.250 rest of the way might get uncomfortable.

I'd rather not fact the Jets in the 1st round but other than that, I agree we shouldn't worry too match about the 1st round matchup. I do badly want to play MTL though but that's just cause I want revenge.

Montreal would be a fun series for sure. I'd just rather be as healthy as possible in 2nd-4th than banged up and in first place.

 

[2 Slick]

Hutchinson is in net? This should be a shit show to watch. Should be fun.

 

[123offtheglass]

 

[Gallagbi]

When was the last time our new guy, VV, actually played? Is he active in the Marlies?

 

[X66]

Not a single game this season is a must-win at this point, we could go .250 the rest of the way and comfortably make the playoffs. Does it really matter who we face? Price going god mode is just a big a risk as whatever McDavid or the Jets can throw at us.

Im in the same boat.

 

[123offtheglass]

When was the last time our new guy, VV, actually played? Is he active in the Marlies?

Never played a game for the marlies, he last played 10 minutes for Dallas, his only NHL action.

Goalies come out of nowhere all the time that either get hot or are good, hopefully Leafs can catch a break with him being one of the two.

 

[Gallagbi]

Never played a game for the marlies, he last played 10 minutes for Dallas, his only NHL action.

Goalies come out of nowhere all the time that either get hot or are good, hopefully Leafs can catch a break with him being one of the two.

That's a tough ask for a guy who hasn't seen any real action

 

[rojac]

That's a tough ask for a guy who hasn't seen any real action

His main purpose is to fill the Goalie slot on the taxi squad. If the Leafs actually needed another goalie that they thought might play, they'd probably call up a Marlie tender.

 

[Stephen]

This is our last game against the oil

We managed to earn 13 points. The oil got 5.
If they win in regulation tonight they would end up with 7 total. That means we practically (almost) got double their points playing against each other this season.


Now, lets win this one and triple them.

Too bad we keep bleeding out points against Ottawa and Vancouver.

 

[budzz]

So VV is the backup tonight? Has that been confirmed? Hoping Hutch doesn't start slow like last time, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt, he did shut out the Oilers once already this season...