I agree with this.
Door 1 - sign for 1X$1M in a familiar place, have a great first full season, play in the playoffs (high exposure), potentially win a Cup, potentially play with one of Connor/Leon (and the points that come with it), put yourself in a position to hold a gun to your team's head with arbitration rights on your extension.
Door 2 - go to a mediocre team playing an uncertain role, have a lower profile, potentially play too high in the lineup too soon, underperform the contract. Then when the deal expires the QO would be too high making him a UFA where he's signing the 1X$1M deal that lots of unqualified UFAs get.
It could all work out in St. Louis if he ends up going there, but the path here is fairly linear if he brings the same attitude into the next season. I just see more risk there. In Edmonton I would give him strong odds of scoring 20+, playing well in the playoffs, then demanding big $ in the off season. I don't see the same in St. Louis.