Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[Broberg Speed]

So what’s left on the UFA market if they let Broberg leave…. Barrie, Schultz, Klingberg, and Lindstrom? Are any of these guys better then Stetcher at this point in there career ???

A trade is always available on the market if you have the assets to entice another team.

You poney up players, picks and prospects. It will seem one sided against the Oilers because they will be receiving players they target that they perceive they need on the team to take that next step.

If the player the Oilers trade for has a high cap hit the Oilers have to throw in a good prospect or a top pick for the other team to retain. Then for example if the player traded for has 3 years in term left on his contract, the Oilers likely have to give up more picks to retain on each of those years.

If the player is the perfect fit for a few years into the future it would be acceptable for the Oilers to include their own future 1st, a cap dump (even if it is a good player) and on top of that the 2nd and 3rd rounders they just received as compensation for Broberg and Holloway.

If they don't want to relinquish all those the picks they could replace them with prospects or a player with positive value. There is give and take. The market has an equilibrium and will sort itself out.

That's a great return for a team thinking about stockpiling picks to acquire young talent in the draft for a retool or rebuild.

I get being emotional and not wanting guys back that might not necessarily want to be back… but if it makes us a better hockey team you gotta go with it imo.

Sign the dudes, make it work. We are losing two young talented roster players for nothing while we are in the prime of our contending years.

This isn't true at all. A 2nd and a 3rd rounder is not nothing. It may not be a top return but it's probably close to 60-70% of what the Oilers could have received on the market, if you outright traded two young players with limited experience, not having put up numbers of note in the NHL. What could Broberg and Holloway realistically get you as returns in a trade? Nobody is lining up to do the Oilers any favors.

Now the important part. 4.58M in cap space to play with over the next two seasons for Broberg, because that's what he's getting paid. Likewise, Holloway is making 2.29M for the next two seasons.

If Broberg can't effectively play in the top 4 immediately, he now has a negative valued contract. If Holloway can't score 15 goals from the third line and play on the pk he has a negative valued contract. You could end up having to add a 2nd and a 3rd rounder to Broberg and Holloway to trade them away if they don't reach expectations.

This just isn't a gamble for Edmonton to let these players go, receiving compensation, or matching and not having the players live up to expectation. St.Louis could miss on one or both of Broberg and Holloway. Immediately regretting going the offer sheet route. They not only lose their picks, they lose their flexibility in cap space.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

That’s the point. You don't have to replace them with cheap UFAs because they themself aren't cheap.

Broberg at $1.5M is tough to replace. At $4.6M though, you can do that in your sleep.


Not to mention Ceci and Kulak are basically his replacements because, if you match, you probably have to trade both of them to get cap compliant.

Yeah trading Ceci and Kulak is fine.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Yeah trading Ceci and Kulak is fine.

Then you need to replace them with two defensemen. You really do. Broberg could take one of those spots but it isn't a given he can play on the second pairing.

Before the offer sheets I wanted Broberg to play a full season on the third pairing. That's 50% of the length of his contract.

One year of 4.58M on the third pairing is worse than either Ceci or Kulak.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Yeah trading Ceci and Kulak is fine.

Trading 2 better players is fine?

 

[FlameChampion]

No guarantee that Broberg will even be better than Kulak and he makes twice as much. Matching is so risky unless someone in the organization is very confident hes at least going to be a #3 soon.

Cant wait to see how this resolves.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Trading 2 better players is fine?

Shocked he doesnt want to trade Bouchard too.

 

[Broberg Speed]

No guarantee that Broberg will even be better than Kulak and he makes twice as much. Matching is so risky unless someone in the organization is very confident hes at least going to be a #3 soon.

Cant wait to see how this resolves.

I honestly don't think Kulak is better than Ceci on a full-time third pairing role.

I'm fairly certain Broberg can surpass both but I'm hesitant to say he can accomplish that before this two year contract is up.

History has shown Ceci is effective as long as he doesn't play too many minutes. He would have a great career if he was never expected to play more than 15 minutes per game. He gets worn down with anything north of 17 minutes.

The Oilers playing him for more than 2O minutes a night, for f***ing years end is the disaster. Oilers decision making and organizational depth is the problem, not Ceci. And I've been saying this for years. Before Ceci was even an Oiler. He's not a top 4 defenceman. He can be a rock solid number 5 that can pk. But you need to watch his minutes.

I expect the majority of defenseman to take a long time to develop. This is what I expect for Broberg, who can become a top 4 defenceman. I don't see him ready to do that this season. Develop the player correctly and you might end up with a Brodin level defenseman by time he is 27. If he really takes of he could reach Bouwmeester levels... but that is a long shot. Every young player with talent is compared to players at an expected level they will never reach.

 

[Mr Positive]

No guarantee that Broberg will even be better than Kulak and he makes twice as much. Matching is so risky unless someone in the organization is very confident hes at least going to be a #3 soon.

Cant wait to see how this resolves.

It's really not that risky because it's only 2 years. We only have to keep him for 1. 4.6 is a lot for Broberg but it's not crazy. We've seen players sign for more money and term with small resumes. Potential is worth something too. The Blues seem to think so

The org knows better than we do. We've heard for a couple years about how the org has been raving about Broberg's AHL play and about how it absolutely will translate to the NHL. He was a top ten pick who was showing his NHL quality when the games mattered most

The risk cuts both ways. There's risk that he ends up as a Kulak or Ceci tier player. There's also a risk that he ends up being an Ekholm entering his prime, and that we let him walk for a 2nd, with little to no chance at getting another D prospect of that quality. The odds are closer to the latter being true

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Trading 2 better players is fine?

Ceci is not better. Kulak is similar

 

[McDoused]

Ceci is not better. Kulak is similar

The sad thing was that last year Ceci was better than Broberg.

This is coming from a fan who would rejoice from Ceci being traded.

Brobergs value came from his low cap hit and his flashes/potential.

 

[Ninety7]

A trade is always available on the market if you have the assets to entice another team.

You poney up players, picks and prospects. It will seem one sided against the Oilers because they will be receiving players they target that they perceive they need on the team to take that next step.

If the player the Oilers trade for has a high cap hit the Oilers have to throw in a good prospect or a top pick for the other team to retain. Then for example if the player traded for has 3 years in term left on his contract, the Oilers likely have to give up more picks to retain on each of those years.

If the player is the perfect fit for a few years into the future it would be acceptable for the Oilers to include their own future 1st, a cap dump (even if it is a good player) and on top of that the 2nd and 3rd rounders they just received as compensation for Broberg and Holloway.

If they don't want to relinquish all those the picks they could replace them with prospects or a player with positive value. There is give and take. The market has an equilibrium and will sort itself out.

That's a great return for a team thinking about stockpiling picks to acquire young talent in the draft for a retool or rebuild.


This isn't true at all. A 2nd and a 3rd rounder is not nothing. It may not be a top return but it's probably close to 60-70% of what the Oilers could have received on the market, if you outright traded two young players with limited experience, not having put up numbers of note in the NHL. What could Broberg and Holloway realistically get you as returns in a trade? Nobody is lining up to do the Oilers any favors.

Now the important part. 4.58M in cap space to play with over the next two seasons for Broberg, because that's what he's getting paid. Likewise, Holloway is making 2.29M for the next two seasons.

If Broberg can't effectively play in the top 4 immediately, he now has a negative valued contract. If Holloway can't score 15 goals from the third line and play on the pk he has a negative valued contract. You could end up having to add a 2nd and a 3rd rounder to Broberg and Holloway to trade them away if they don't reach expectations.

This just isn't a gamble for Edmonton to let these players go, receiving compensation, or matching and not having the players live up to expectation. St.Louis could miss on one or both of Broberg and Holloway. Immediately regretting going the offer sheet route. They not only lose their picks, they lose their flexibility in cap space.

The only way this can be seen as a win is if we do something with the picks and cap space.

We eventually will need guys to develop for us. Broberg has been brewing for quite a while and he looked ready and poised to step into a top 4 role.

I know, “sample size”. But I would have liked to keep broberg and explore cap space issues with ceci.

We are losing a young, potential top 4 D for really nothing that will help us win now (unless we package them at the deadline for an upgrade). Not really comfortable with it. But it is what it is and I don’t think our team lives and dies on this decision.

 

[Broberg Speed]

It's really not that risky because it's only 2 years. We only have to keep him for 1. 4.6 is a lot for Broberg but it's not crazy. We've seen players sign for more money and term with small resumes. Potential is worth something too. The Blues seem to think so

The org knows better than we do. We've heard for a couple years about how the org has been raving about Broberg's AHL play and about how it absolutely will translate to the NHL. He was a top ten pick who was showing his NHL quality when the games mattered most

The risk cuts both ways. There's risk that he ends up as a Kulak or Ceci tier player. There's also a risk that he ends up being an Ekholm entering his prime, and that we let him walk for a 2nd, with little to no chance at getting another D prospect of that quality. The odds are closer to the latter being true

I couldn't disagree more. You're overpaying a player who might never reach his potential over the length of the contract.

Then you are expected to qualify the player at a inflated amount after the contract is completed. You can let them walk but I notice most NHL clubs double down and lose a second time. You can't do this in a capped system and expect to come out ahead, It's a bum bet.

I don't dislike Broberg. I dislike his contract. I don't dislike Holloway, I dislike his contract. If either doesn't perform in year one the contract you have a negative valued player... then you couldn't move the player without adding an asset. And that's just for the second year of the contract.

I mean if either of these players were the difference makers, to put you over the top, you should be expected to make an exception. I don't see these players as exceptional right now.

I want the Oilers to take the compensation, utilize the cap space, then find an exceptional player to add to the club so they can win a championship.

 

[Mr Positive]

I couldn't disagree more. You're overpaying a player who might never reach his potential over the length of the contract.

Then you are expected to qualify the player at a inflated amount after the contract is completed. You can let them walk but I notice most NHL clubs double down and lose a second time. You can't do this in a capped system and expect to come out ahead, It's a bum bet.

I don't dislike Broberg. I dislike his contract. I don't dislike Holloway, I dislike his contract. If either doesn't perform in year one the contract you have a negative valued player... then you couldn't move the player without adding an asset. And that's just for the second year of the contract.

I mean if either of these players were the difference makers, to put you over the top, you should be expected to make an exception. I don't see these players as exceptional right now.

I want the Oilers to take the compensation, utilize the cap space, then find an exceptional player to add to the club so they can win a championship.

If Broberg hits his potential then 4.6 is not a big contract at all.

I know RFAs often take less but if all of Broberg's value today were represented in a contract it would be a lot closer to 4.6 a year than 1.2. With cap inflation, imo we were going to be paying Broberg more than this on his next deal anyway.

Plus like I said, the short term mitigates the risk a lot. If he doesn't pan out we could trade him next summer and I'm sure a team would gladly take a gamble on his potential. Imo the risk of a one year overpayment is clearly worth the draft capital and development time we've invested in him.

 

[Broberg Speed]

The only way this can be seen as a win is if we do something with the picks and cap space.

We eventually will need guys to develop for us. Broberg has been brewing for quite a while and he looked ready and poised to step into a top 4 role.

I know, “sample size”. But I would have liked to keep broberg and explore cap space issues with ceci.

We are losing a young, potential top 4 D for really nothing that will help us win now (unless we package them at the deadline for an upgrade). Not really comfortable with it. But it is what it is and I don’t think our team lives and dies on this decision.

I agree. Management. Pro-scouting. Get your asses in gear. American teams that win championships do this all the time.

Value wise, you don't win losing Broberg and Holloway for a 2nd and 3rd rounder. That's the truth but this is a strategy game. Sometimes you have to sacrifice pieces, lose a battle, you do this to win the war.

Hopefully McDavid and Draisaitl end up being the focal pieces in a dynasty. You can't accomplish this overpaying lesser players.

How much the fanbase likes Holloway, Broberg... likes Kulak, is all detrimental to the chances of the Oilers actually winning.

If Broberg hits his potential then 4.6 is not a big contract at all.

I know RFAs often take less but if all of Broberg's value were represented in a contract it would be a lot closer to 4.6 a year than 1.2. With cap inflation, imo we were going to be paying Broberg more than this on his next deal anyway.

Plus like I said, the short term mitigates the risk a lot. If he doesn't pan out we could trade him next summer and I'm sure a team would gladly take a gamble on his potential. Imo the risk of a one year overpayment is clearly worth the draft capital and development time we've invested in him.

Look at my username. The odds are Broberg tops out as a 4.58M dollar player in 4 years. What are you doing between now and then. Losing.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

It's one of the contradictions in the CBA.

For this to make sense it would have have to be something like the value of a 1st or very early 2nd to the Oilers for future considerations. That sort of a trade will raise hackles almost immediately. If it is then followed by Broberg being waived and SJ picking him, even the great brain trusts in the NHL head office could follow that plan.

The real issue is that circumvention is in the eye of the beholder. The CBA allows the League to call pretty much any action they want as circumvention even if it is not explicitly ruled out. In the case of the SJ deal the big risk is that the player through the NHLPA would be the one crying to the League who would then would see this as pretty obvious circumvention of the "no trade after and OS" clause. Even if the player did not do that, the Oilers would risk having the League come down hard on them and its not like the League has ruled in their favour before on grey area matters so that they could be confident in their actions.

This is pretty much it, the league loves to leave themselves these grey areas where they can arbitrarily decide however they see fit. In this particular situation they could easily say, well technically they aren’t breaking any rules and allow it or as you mentioned they have broad power to declare something is circumvention, reverse it and possibly even punish us. I’m sure if the team was seriously considering this move they would make a call to the league to try and get a feeling for how the league might respond.

 

[Mr Positive]

Look at my username. The odds are Broberg likely tops out at as 4.58M dollar player in 4 years.

Based on what? That he wasn't that good as a 20 year old?

Why do I think Broberg has it in him to be a good top 4 Dman? Draft position, internal scouting, trajectory, skill set. These are all great predictors of the future

A good top 4 D is worth more than 4.6 by a lot. And yes, I know there is risk. One year of overpaying a guy isn't going to alarm me as much as a truly bad risk like the Campbell deal was.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Based on what? That he wasn't that good as a 20 year old?

Why do I think Broberg has it in him to be a good top 4 Dman? Draft position, internal scouting, trajectory, skill set. These are all great predictors of the future

A good top 4 D is worth more than 4.6 by a lot. And yes, I know there is risk. One year of overpaying a guy isn't going to alarm me as much as a truly bad risk like the Campbell deal was.

How many times... how many different ways do I have to explain that I think Broberg is a good player now and he's only going to get better? The price tag is wrong. The price tag on his next contract will also be wrong. The St. Louis Blues screwed the Edmonton Oilers. Matching the contract only increases the damage.

 

[North]

I’m not sure where this theory that the Oilers stunted Broberg’s development came from.

He’s only recently shown some progress. They gave him opportunities to take a job earlier but he wasn’t able to.

The only thing I didn’t agree with was when he was sitting in the press box not playing. He should have been sent down to the AHL earlier.

 

[Mr Positive]

How many times... how many different ways do I have to explain that I think Broberg is a good player now and he's only going to get better? The price tag is wrong. The price tag on his next contract will also be wrong. The St. Louis Blues screwed the Edmonton Oilers. Matching the contract only increases the damage.

You said that Broberg wouldn't even top out as a 4.58 million player in 4 years. That's what I asked you to justify. I gave reasons why he will likely be worth more than that. What do you have? Your gut? Some clips of when he was 21?

But either way, this is the kind of thing that we can see play out for a year and trade him if we change our minds. There really isnt much risk here. This was supposed to be the year where Broberg's playoffs gave him enough leash to cement his potential. And again that seems costly, but it might not be if he picks up where he left off in the playoffs. It's guaranteed to be costly if we let him go now because of the squandered draft capital and development time

 

[CrazyJoeDavola]

Absolutely not true. Broberg wasn't ready for the NHL for years he just wasn't even as recently as early this past season and there was no path for big opportunity on a win now team the last 2 years on his strong side when he was closer to ready then he got an opportunity on his off side and did ok with it but he apparently wasn't happy playing on his off side so I really fail to see how this is the Oilers fault.

I said this in an earlier post. So many of you were complaining for years about the Oilers rushing Dmen then when they properly develop one, now it's the player being screwed over. No, the Oilers played this right. Broberg wasn't ready until recently, he got his opportunity to play big minutes in the AHL a to grow his game and flourish so he'd be ready to take on a full time NHL opportunity which he showed flashes of in the postseason.

It sucks that they're losing a player that they've developed in their system the last 5 years and seems to be on the right path but they're not losing him because they didn't develop him properly and in fact they are losing him because they DID develop him properly because the Blues see a player that is ascending, potentially, due to the Oilers taking the right development path with this player.

These are all fair points; however, I believe Broberg was deliberately neutered to play a more conservative play style and to be more of a DFD. That, coupled with his sporatic deployment, have led to his development being stifled as a result.

Broberg has, not a single time, shown the elite skating rushes that he did prior to being drafted. I think Woody neutered him on purpose, and he had most of his dynamic play coached out of him to play a safe bottom pairing role. The guy that was supposed to be a puck carrying dynamo and the best skater in the draft now suddently is supposed to play like a third line plug and completely change his style of play. You could just feel how brainwashed he was in his early games with the team; at least that's my interpretation given he looked so scared to actually do anything dynamic, like he was being told not to, because we have fwds that can do it. I don't think people realize the effect that having mcdavid does on a team's makeup and how they decide to deploy complimentary pieces. It's get the puck to the fwds as fast as possible and don't do anything stupid or you are going to bakersfield. When, in reality, elite offense is driven from the back-end.

I don't disagree that he's gotten some chances and hasn't looked the best until recently, but I feel like they were skewed becaues of the above, which all contributes to why he wants tf out. And now that he's finally ascending, he has to start his full-time nhl career on his off side, to boot. And this is why he wants out.

So I think yeah, he partially didn't do enough with his chances, but also a lot of those chances were a result of his development being de-prioritized to fit into a bottom pairing role.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Ceci is not better. Kulak is similar

Ceci is absolutely better.

 

[Broberg Speed]

You said that Broberg wouldn't even top out as a 4.58 million player in 4 years. That's what I asked you to justify. I gave reasons why he will likely be worth more than that. What do you have? Your gut? Some clips of when he was 21?

But either way, this is the kind of thing that we can see play out for a year and trade him if we change our minds. There really isnt much risk here. This was supposed to be the year where Broberg's playoffs gave him enough leash to cement his potential. And again that seems costly, but it might not be if he picks up where he left off in the playoffs. It's guaranteed to be costly if we let him go now because of the squandered draft capital and development time

At the age of 27 I see Philip Broberg being the equivalent percentage of the cap in today's market at 4.58M... expand that number into a likewise percentage of the cap 4 or 5 years down the road.

 

[MoontoScott]

My guess is that the Oilers will match on Holloway and let Broberg walk.

This talk of trading away 2 veteran D-men (who are established in the NHL) in order to match the Blue's offer doesn't make sense to me. Sure Broberg might be a top 4 D-man for many seasons but with his injury history and relative inexperience its an assumption that the team can't afford to make.

In a salary cap league with free agency you can't put a steak on every plate.

I wonder if this move might open the flood gates on similar deals around the league in coming years? Agents will be happy and so will players. More inflationary pressure on salaries.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Ceci is absolutely better.

Ceci needs to be upgraded regardless of what happens with Broberg IMO.

 

[Oilslick941611]

Bring Barrie and Schultz in on PTOs maybe?

This.

We don’t need them to be better than Broberg in the future. We need them to be better than Broberg now, and they are.