Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[McDNicks17]

Replace them with what UFA's that are cheap? There is nobody left

In a cup or bust year we can't afford to lose both.

That’s the point. You don't have to replace them with cheap UFAs because they themself aren't cheap.

Broberg at $1.5M is tough to replace. At $4.6M though, you can do that in your sleep.


Not to mention Ceci and Kulak are basically his replacements because, if you match, you probably have to trade both of them to get cap compliant.

 

[ujju2]

This is absolute fiction. Brown was not a huge contributor in playoffs. He didn't even show up until well into the playoffs. he had 2 goals and was even HS on multiple nights.

And was a key contributor on a historic PK. Say whatever you will, 1 million for Connor Brown is a deal any team would take him for. It's last year's 3 million that's an issue.

 

[Macblender]

What you guys are getting is the Oilers didn't trade these guys last year for a reason. They aren't going anywhere.

Mve ceci, Move kulak. Attach assets if needed.

It's shitty, but we keep the two young players.

So we blow up our depth to keep them? Ceci and kulak alone isn’t enough cap.

We are 300k over and Ceci and kulak is 6M. We need to clear 7.3M for this so it isn’t even as simple as just putting brown down we still have no long term flexibility pending Kane isn’t ltir to the playoffs which everything is pointing to the contrary of.

Ekholm-bouchard
Nurse-stecher
Broberg-kemp?

Vs.

Ekholm bouch
Nurse ceci
Kulak stecher

I just care about cups Broberg I like but not at that cost. They made a decision then thinking they were cheap. At 2.4M combined yeah no crap don’t trade them but their best asset for next season being cheap is gone now and the decision is much different.

 

[oobga]

The fog and cost of poor development. The Oilers need to make a margin call on someone they've invested pedigree draft collateral and more than a million dollars of development time. St. Louis cuts the line and greatfully accepts those investments for an out-of-the box NHL ready defenseman they can play at his natural side and with Parayko or Faulk.

Funny how some perspective has changed from Broberg stepping in to NHL Final 4 competition and keeping his head above water and to now retroactively picking at it. Florida dominated all opposition with offensive zone time. I've invited you and other posters to help show an apples to apples comparison in how their Eastern Conference d-corps align with Broberg and more broader Oiler defending team results. Good chance to test these assumptions.

Skinner delivered final four level goaltending expected and needed to win. Having a black ace step into that competition level and not at his natural position is exceptionally rare (hence the comments by coach and player(s).

I've said the test in this is how Jackson and Bowman respond to the offer sheet. It's been perfectly executed to buy low on high pedigree NHL ready talent. We wait and see.

I'm as happy as most at how Broberg's ice time ended up against Florida. I'm not trying to pick on Broberg when I sound like I'm trying to denigrate that ice time. I've just been burned too many times over the years by reading too much into small sample sizes. Being one of the guys that got more saves in a handful of games against good opposition is wonderful, but I can't ignore how much luck was involved and how small the sample size was.

Florida was stomping almost everyone, for sure, but what standard do you try to take from all these tiny playoff series samples to try to project careers from guys with barely any other sample size to evaluate in the NHL? Is a guy allowing loads of chances against, like most guys did against a team, but managed to get one of the highest PDO's of the entire playoffs a good projector of future results? IMO, no, not really. Do we try to compare the amount of chances allowed against?

Broberg in terms of xGF% was one of the lowest on our team against Florida, lower than almost all Bruins players except 1 vs Florida, and lower than any Lightning player against the Panthers. Rangers were legitimately stomped, and Broberg's xGF% would have been middle of the pack vs their players vs Florida. So I guess Broberg just by xGF% looks quite bad compared to what other players did against the Panthers. But, actual GF% results, he's near the top with guys like Janmark, McDavid, Henrique, Holloway, Hyman, Cuylle, Goodrow, Trocheck, Zacha, Carlo, Lohrei, Kuch, Point, etc... All the fun that came out of a ~90 minute sample of ice time per guy.

Absolutely agree, the management of the player was weak. Clearly the relationship and expectations were not being well managed. Reminds me a lot of Pulju here, minus hip injuries, and I think we were trying to not do the same thing we did with Pulju pulling him in and out of the AHL constantly. The new "overripe" obsession probably soured both Broberg and Holloway towards the org. I think we will all be watching Borberg close the rest of his career if we do end up letting him take off to St Louis.

 

[Fourier]

What your saying is possible. But this is the standard garden poorly worded CBA that results in loopholes even being possible. I would assert that waiving is circumention. others would disagree. But it shouldn't even be a matter of speculation. It should be clear.

Waiving is not circumvention, but if there is first a weasel trade with SJ followed by the player being waived that will very likely be seen as circumvention.

 

[Macblender]

That’s the point. You don't have to replace them with cheap UFAs because they themself aren't cheap.

Broberg at $1.5M is tough to replace. At $4.6M though, you can do that in your sleep.


Not to mention Ceci and Kulak are basically his replacements because, if you match, you probably have to trade both of them to get cap compliant.

Honestly there is some players for Holloway spot like JVR or wheeler who may want to chase a cup. But yeah trading lots of the depth for expensive young players who are equivalent to the depth right now in a 2 year cup window is not smart imo

 

[Dazed and Confused]

It's a strong concept because it is real tracked data using multiple in arena cameras to track activities much like the forerunners at MLB. It hasn't changed the results which you just again affirm in your post. Which again disproved your assertion about Stetcher's speed.

Not denying it's trying to track real data, but I'd say a tracker that shows Vinny as being faster than Kulak and Nurse has a long way to go before being reliable.

 

[McDNicks17]

Not denying it's trying to track real data, but I'd say a tracker that shows Vinny as being faster than Kulak and Nurse has a long way to go before being reliable.

To be fair, Desharnais came second in the Oilers' fastest skater comp. 0.3 km/h behind McLeod.

I feel like those readings depend a lot on situation. It's pretty rare for a player to get a wide open lane to hit their top speed. Desharnais is legit fast, but he could have also had a chance to wind it up while others didn't.

 

[NotASheep]

These offer sheets funked us badly. Neither player wants to be here. Media and fans will destroy them

 

[Oilslick941611]

It isn't really a "loophole" in the wording though. There is no stated protection against waiving a player in the the CBA long term.

It's not twisting words, there is no described protection for a player.

You need to have a NMC to prevent being waived, the clauses the NHL has for matching offer sheets only prevents a trade for 1 year. Nothing else. They'd have to rewrite the CBA if they want to change that now after the fact.

And there shouldn't be. if you can’t trade or waive the player you are guaranteeing them an NHL spot. Being able to send the player down to the minors is protection against a player checking out. I agree with the no trade though.

To be fair, Desharnais came second in the Oilers' fastest skater comp. 0.3 km/h behind McLeod.

I feel like those readings depend a lot on situation. It's pretty rare for a player to get a wide open lane to hit their top speed. Desharnais is legit fast, but he could have also had a chance to wind it up while others didn't.

Yup, these numbers come from game situations. No two are alike, its great for getting an idea, but to rank players based speed is stupid because players aren't going all out all the time or in the same situation, or starting from the same place. Its not like the 40 yard dash in the NFL where you can confidently compare speeds between players.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Its again as I said carelessly worded. and clear as mud. Clause A says can't trade or reassigning a player. Clause B fails to mention reassigning, and only mentions can't trade player when I think clearly both are implied and in the gist of the document as worded.

In anycase the wording would give ample cause for the league to cancel such a deal.

Again I maintain the CBA is carelessly worded. Unprofessional really. Should be better spelled out.

Fair point in anycase.

I don’t read it as such because it would mean the player would have a NMC for a full year which they don’t.

 

[Soundwave]

I don’t read it as such because it would mean the player would have a NMC for a full year which they don’t.

It would also create weird situations like say you offer sheet a young player, they get hurt half way through the season and you'd like to send him down on a conditioning stint ... so you'd be prohibited from doing that? That's just stupid.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

To be fair, Desharnais came second in the Oilers' fastest skater comp. 0.3 km/h behind McLeod.

I feel like those readings depend a lot on situation. It's pretty rare for a player to get a wide open lane to hit their top speed. Desharnais is legit fast, but he could have also had a chance to wind it up while others didn't.

Top speed doesnt really mean much with how many stops and starts there is.

 

[Seanaconda]

With drai being like I'll take a discount if others take a discount ... maybe let both go

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Not denying it's trying to track real data, but I'd say a tracker that shows Vinny as being faster than Kulak and Nurse has a long way to go before being reliable.

I don't know what to tell you. It's cutting edge sports technology in hockey but well established in variations within baseball. The NHL Edge utilizes in uniform and puck infrared technology that is tracked by up to as many as 20 in arena cameras. Years in development with league and tech partners. Sports Radar specifically works with all major professional sports.

I like it as a complement and cross reference to data and statistical analysis from third party sources that can be presented as definitive statements. Helps to round out a full picture I think.

Not for me to change your opinion about the objective results I shared but a couple links you might find interesting. Appreciate the context discussion about Stetcher.

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Home

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics, including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot and save location, and zone time for National Hockey League players and teams.

edge.nhl.com

NHL EDGE website provides Puck and Player Tracking data to fans | NHL.com

New home for curated data will give information ‘traditional statistics have never told you’

www.nhl.com

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I'm as happy as most at how Broberg's ice time ended up against Florida. I'm not trying to pick on Broberg when I sound like I'm trying to denigrate that ice time. I've just been burned too many times over the years by reading too much into small sample sizes. Being one of the guys that got more saves in a handful of games against good opposition is wonderful, but I can't ignore how much luck was involved and how small the sample size was.

Florida was stomping almost everyone, for sure, but what standard do you try to take from all these tiny playoff series samples to try to project careers from guys with barely any other sample size to evaluate in the NHL? Is a guy allowing loads of chances against, like most guys did against a team, but managed to get one of the highest PDO's of the entire playoffs a good projector of future results? IMO, no, not really. Do we try to compare the amount of chances allowed against?

Broberg in terms of xGF% was one of the lowest on our team against Florida, lower than almost all Bruins players except 1 vs Florida, and lower than any Lightning player against the Panthers. Rangers were legitimately stomped, and Broberg's xGF% would have been middle of the pack vs their players vs Florida. So I guess Broberg just by xGF% looks quite bad compared to what other players did against the Panthers. But, actual GF% results, he's near the top with guys like Janmark, McDavid, Henrique, Holloway, Hyman, Cuylle, Goodrow, Trocheck, Zacha, Carlo, Lohrei, Kuch, Point, etc... All the fun that came out of a ~90 minute sample of ice time per guy.

Absolutely agree, the management of the player was weak. Clearly the relationship and expectations were not being well managed. Reminds me a lot of Pulju here, minus hip injuries, and I think we were trying to not do the same thing we did with Pulju pulling him in and out of the AHL constantly. The new "overripe" obsession probably soured both Broberg and Holloway towards the org. I think we will all be watching Borberg close the rest of his career if we do end up letting him take off to St Louis.

Appreciate your reply. Didn't mean you specifically but broader board opinions. I appreciate the points about small sample size. It's actually why I tried to look at his usage information and context over his short number of NHL games over seasons. I'm actually a work-in-progess when it comes to faith in X/Expected advance stats especially in case of individual players. Team level performance wise I think it works pretty well. His high PDO certainly reflects helpful on-ice situational play aka 'puck luck' but again this is a player who missed a month of play then airlifted into apex competition and held his own. On his off shooting side when a veteran d-option demurred this team need.

I actually don't liken his development to Puljujarvi. Far easier to onboard a team at forward versus defense. Puljujarvi clearly shouldn't have been in the league at 18 with consideration language, culture and maturity issues (former was controllable). He wasn't inclined to go to the AHL to build up his game. And his ability to think the game at NHL speed became exposed. Broberg took the demotions and built up his game. Got lost on a mature phase organization that had to build up its d-core with established NHLers then pushed a green d-man to onboard on his off shooting side. We've learned how hard that is. And see it in Broberg's splits when played at both sides.

It's not even about overripen. There hasn't been a very clear or consistent development plan with Broberg which eroded under a floundering Woodcroft. Guy took the demotion and built his game up. Well enough to be the team's break in case of emergency at height of playoff competition. That's extremely rare.

My first post on this mess was that I think Oilers management walk from Broberg and retain Holloway based on the money. But I want to dig deeper on the player because of the massive fog of poor development that is tied to the prospect. Hella easier too to find replacement wingers over quality young d-me.

 

[Sparkleton]

It’s within the rules. New York just got around Goodrows NTC by waiving him, San Jose picking up up and then assets being moved for it. It’s frowned upon but there is nothing against it in the rules or CBA

I don’t remember any assets moving. San Jose picked him up and the NHLPA said they were going to look into it if there was a follow up deal which there was not. San Jose bailed NYR out.

 

[Chet Manley]

I like the potential still left in these guys but freeing up $7m in roster space for the two of them seems like a risky idea.

 

[Broberg Speed]

If Friedman is correct and Broberg was a player teams were scrambling to acquire, I'd like to know what was being offered for him in a trade.

Next up, why do all the talking heads only include upcoming UFAs and current UFAs as targets for the Oil. Do they realize it is legal to trade for players with term and having teams retain on those players?

The contract does not need to be up at the end of the year. Ekholm is the perfect example and you don't have to wait until the deadline to make that type of deal. It may cost more to make the money work but if we have an extra 2nd and 3rd rounder in a week, thade those picks along with other assets.

Edit: now I see Friedman is saying the Oil will match on Holloway. I just learned that a second ago. Is it true?

 

[belair]

If Friedman is correct and Broberg was a player teams were scrambling to acquire, I'd like to know what was being offered for him in a trade.

Next up, why do all the talking heads only include upcoming UFAs and current UFAs as targets for the Oil. Do they realize it is legal to trade for players with term and having teams retain on those players?

The contract does not need to be up at the end of the year. Ekholm is the perfect example and you don't have to wait until the deadline to make that type of deal. It may cost more to make the money work but if we have an extra 2nd and 3rd rounder in a week, thade those picks along with other assets.

Edit: now I see Friedman is saying the Oil will match on Holloway. I just learned that a second ago. Is it true?

Them matching on Holloway was a given IMO. He's poised to be a middle six winger this year likely starting in the third line with Foegele gone and Kane out for a significant amount of time.

He has the speed and physical game that a lot of our forwards simply don't possess.

 

[McBooya42]

If Friedman is correct and Broberg was a player teams were scrambling to acquire, I'd like to know what was being offered for him in a trade.

Next up, why do all the talking heads only include upcoming UFAs and current UFAs as targets for the Oil. Do they realize it is legal to trade for players with term and having teams retain on those players?

The contract does not need to be up at the end of the year. Ekholm is the perfect example and you don't have to wait until the deadline to make that type of deal. It may cost more to make the money work but if we have an extra 2nd and 3rd rounder in a week, thade those picks along with other assets.

Edit: now I see Friedman is saying the Oil will match on Holloway. I just learned that a second ago. Is it true?

Where did you hear that?

 

[tiger_80]

Ceci comes off the books organically in a year. You'll find moving Kulak and Kane a daunting task. You'd have to move a young player like a Holloway or a Broberg with them as a sweetener.

Now that Holloway is making 2,29M he's worth nothing. You'd have to add a draft pick to just to move him. He now has negative value. Broberg makes 4,58M. You might have to sweeten the pot with a 2nd round pick and a prospect to move him.

The moral of the story is no one is doing the Oilers any favors... even if it seems logical in your head.

Why are you adding to this negative narrative built around Stecher. Are you so positive Broberg is going to be the better player over the life of their contracts?

Stecher makes 1,575M over the next two years, combined, while Broberg makes 9,162M over the next two years. I know the player I'm giving the benefit of the doubt.

It's a major mistake to match one. A Monumental mistake to match both. The second you match the offer sheets you have two players with negative value. Not that they are bad players it's that they are overpaid.

The NHL really f***ed the Oilers on this one. Can Bowman dig us out of this big f***ing hole now?


You and your magic f***ing beans. If all those players see the light of day on the Oilers roster they've gone full rebuild and you're inside the eye of the hurricane with everyone laughing at you because you're inside a decade of darkness and you don't even realize it.

Teams do not offer sheet very often. I wonder if Kevin Lowe's desperation moves more than a decade ago turned the Oilers into a fair game.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Where did you hear that?

it was out of Friedmans ass like most noises he makes.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Then matching on Holloway was a given IMO. He's poised to be a middle six winger this year likely starting in the third line with Foegele gone and Kane out for a significant amount of time.

He has the speed and physical game that a lot of our forwards simply don't possess.

At that money Holloway better score 15 goals and stay healthy.

Where did you hear that?

Elliotte Friedman reportedly confirms Oilers' decision on Dylan Holloway.

link in the description

 

[brentashton]

it was out of Friedmans ass like most noises he makes.

If Friedman says it’s done, then it’s a done deal. He reports on things 32 minutes after every other insider has confirmed it to be happening.