I say this in a nice way but the problem for most people is that they can’t assess their own teams with the same objectivity they assess others with. That’s how every fanbase talks themselves into their team doing better than what they usually do. Hell, if you look at the perceived pessimistic HFVan regular season projections, the team has consistently underperformed them for the past seven years sans 19-20 when they finished as a bubble team (17th) and met expectations.
Huberdeau and Kadri probably won’t repeat their production, no. But they’ve added Weegar and still have an elite goaltender and good depth at goalie.
The canucks weren’t good at getting the puck quick up the ice last year under BB. Rutherford has commented as such.
I don’t agree that Vegas defense is worse than ours. I think that’s a really bad take. Obviously there are some large variables in terms of what their winger depth and how Thompson can produce. If he’s below average, you wonder if they’ll be able to outscore teams consistently.
With Edmonton, again, you’re talking about a forward group that outperformed ours and still added Holloway and Kane since the start of last year. Their PP will be better with 97 than ours - I think that is indisputable. I think Campbell is a horribly risky bet. He seems fragile, and I think Edmonton media believes his lowest of lows will be less frequent & not as low as Smith’s but Smith was quietly consistently average last season. Campbell had some BAD stretches. And yeah, the awful defense.
Anyways, I think you’re still also mishearing what Drance has said. like when you say “you don’t think they are far off x and y” - Drance agrees with you. I don’t think any media member thinks this division has a Colorado. I think most really like Calgary, but after that, the disparity on paper between EDM/VGK/VAN/LA seems to be relatively minimal. Also have to keep in mind that there are also 5 teams in the central div that think they’re making the playoffs and that means the wildcard spots will be a dogfight.
Like when I see people say that Van is comfortably better than x and will finish in y, usually that’s some sort of combination of belief that a lot of the following will go right in no order
1. OEL-Myers having their best individual/pairing output seasons in years will sustain
2. Schenn will sustain his play
(these are all 30+ D with a lot of miles)
3. Hughes makes another leap
4. Depth is better
5. Demko will be vezina tier or top five at worst.
6. Boeser will bounce back
7. Petey is getting ~100 points
8. Miller continues to be above PPG
9. PP operates around a top five level
10. Hog/Podz make leaps.
11. Kuzmenko surprises (although expectations are now high)
12. Garland adds more consistency to his game
13. Pearson plays like he did last year instead of continuing his previous 3-5 year trend where he plays well for a long stretch and then looks awful for other long stretches.
14. Mikheyev continues to offer offensive production close to his outputs from last year and that his lines don’t tank offensively with him (as has historically been the case).
15. PK isn’t historically bad.
16. Health
17. BB continues to be one of the best regular season coaches in the NHL
18. Team culture on/off the ice improves
19. Ryp is the goodest of boys (confirmed, can mark this one off the list)
Reality is that not everything will go the way people sell themselves on it going. Usually it’s somewhere in the middle. Some people stagnate, some people improve, some get worse, some injuries happen, some pucks bounce the way you want them to.
Is there a world where we win the division after CGY and the other teams have some of the above go against them and we hit on a majority? Sure. I just wouldn’t bet on that being likely.
I think we’ll be in that 14-19 range.