Oilers are good at hockey again: Back in the plofs

[Fourier]

If you look over several years a team in say the 22nd range for example wins about 44% of their games. This means that if a generic team was playing vs that 22nd ranked team the odds that the generic team would beat that 22nd rank team 16 times in a row are in the neighborhood of 11000 to one. Of course this is rather simplistic but it also highly underestimates the actual odds of any team winning 16 straight even with the Oilers schedule.

Even a basic level of numeracy means the dismissal of this because of the schedule is completely inappropriate.

 

[hangman005]

 

[Essenege]

Another W for advanced stats. Even at rock bottom they were first or second in 5v5 corsi / expected goal. It is always the best predictor for future success, better then the actual team record.

Meaning, if team A is 5-15 with 60% xGF, and team B is 15-5 with 40%, you should bet on team A having the better results in the next 20 games.

There’s a few example of teams consistently underplaying there advanced stats but these are rare occurrences.

 

[trojansoilers]

This good? May as well prep for 'easy schedule' comments!

I have nothing to contribute on this topic.
I just wanted to bump up Sydney Sweeney.

 

[Evilsports]

I don't understand some of the Oilers fanbase fixation with approval or accolades from other fanbases? Why would you care what a Canuck or Golden Knight fan thinks about a great run if hockey? Let's just enjoy this for what it is.

I would be lying if I pretended that we've had a grueling schedule against the NHL murderer's row, because we haven't. We've 100% had a favorable schedule with next to no back to backs, and we've played a string of teams that could be described as mid tier for the most part. We've also played up and down to our opponents on a number of occasions lately. Again, who cares though?

Sixteen wins is sixteen wins. ENJOY IT! If this is as good as it gets for the season don't let someone else determine whether or not you appreciate it.

Keep your perspective. It's not as great as it seems, and 2hen we lose again it won't be as awful as it's going to feel. Remember what the real goal is.

 

[olafsson]

Peaking at all the wrong times. I still think they’re out in the first or second round again. Signing old man Perry is not enough to push the needle

 

[lawrence]

Would love to see em break the record. If they beat Vegas ties the record next game is Anaheim i think it’s in the bag.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

So basically the Leafs win with Samsonov against good teams and lose with Jones against good teams?

Jones has only beat bad teams recently. He’s lost 4 of his last 5 starts. Samsonov has won 3 in a row. Jones started off hot and then sucked recently. Edmonton, Colorado and Vancouver all caught Jones on his cold streak before he lost the job to Samsonov. Did you forget that Draisaitl goal against the Leafs he allowed to get Edmonton back in the game?

Sure blame the goaltender... it's the leafs fan way

 

[ijuka]

Peaking at all the wrong times. I still think they’re out in the first or second round again. Signing old man Perry is not enough to push the needle

They were looking like they wouldn't even make the playoffs. They peaked at a great time. Playoff performance doesn't do much if you don't make the playoffs. They used to be tied with the San Jose Sharks.

 

[RattsSSV]

They were looking like they wouldn't even make the playoffs. They peaked at a great time. Playoff performance doesn't do much if you don't make the playoffs. They used to be tied with the San Jose Sharks.

Actually the Oil were the worst in the league after a loss to the Sharks. And you are right, if they can't make the playoffs, then it's all for naught.

 

[BullyHockey]

It's amazing how a narrative can go completely 180. Going from can they win games, to can they ever lose. Just a crazy year by them.

 

[Channelcat]

The NHL should honestly have records completely separate after they went with the OT gimmick.

That's just me and I'm an Oilers fan. Team records and individual records.

Nothing wrong with that. We cannot compare records to ones prior to that.

Agreed. Was just watching TSN posting the streak records and no mention of the Flyers 35 game streak. Would they have won those tie games with overtime? Who knows, but it was a mind boggling achievement at least worth mentioning.

 

[DegeN9]

I'm being serious. If my team was to win 16 straight, I'd much rather it happen in the playoffs than the regular season. But still an impressive run for sure.

No shit? You'd rather go undefeated in the playoffs and win the cup instead of a 16 game regular season winning streak? I'm glad we have such a high IQ hockey mind around to help us grasp such an advanced concept.

If the Oilers manage to win the cup I cannot wait to see the type of mental gymnastics some posters will come up with to attempt to convince others that EDM still isn't good and how it was luck.

 

[Czechboy]

So basically the Leafs win with Samsonov against good teams and lose with Jones against good teams?

Jones has only beat bad teams recently. He’s lost 4 of his last 5 starts. Samsonov has won 3 in a row. Jones started off hot and then sucked recently. Edmonton, Colorado and Vancouver all caught Jones on his cold streak before he lost the job to Samsonov. Did you forget that Draisaitl goal against the Leafs he allowed to get Edmonton back in the game?

I didn't... but I'd sum it up simpler. Both the Leafs and Oilers are lacking true goaltending. 3 in a row for Samsonov is nice but I wouldn't want him as my starter in the playoffs. And my Oil don't really have a backup that is NHL calibre. If I could have a pool of all 4 of our goalies (Samso, Jones, Skinner, Pickard) I still wouldn't be happy.

 

[Mike Liut]

imo, This shows how much parity is in the league today. The top teams aren’t even that good, and the bottom teams are horrible.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

imo, This shows how much parity is in the league today. The top teams aren’t even that good, and the bottom teams are horrible.

Isn't parity when majority of teams are all on a similar level? I get what your saying about the top teams but I wouldn't call them terrible.

In the west I'd say Vegas, Vancouver, Edmonton, the Avs, Stars, Jets are all good to really good and in the East Boston, Florida, as well with a few others that have good records but have red flags that are more egregious than the ones mentioned.

I think the number 1 reason there isn't a true juggernaut is because of the flat cap. Over the next few years, we should see a shift where there will be a handful of really good teams, a handful of real shitty teams and then a bunch of teams in the middle skewed towards parity and honestly that's the model of most leagues except MLB because it's proven to keep revenue up.
I mean MLB is the national pastime and they play a shit load of games but most bad teams have terrible attendance, where in hockey most teams draw well.

 

[gordonhught]

Oilers are so good.

Leafs are trash.

 

[Pip]

I'm being serious. If my team was to win 16 straight, I'd much rather it happen in the playoffs than the regular season. But still an impressive run for sure.

Hot take!

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

I didn't... but I'd sum it up simpler. Both the Leafs and Oilers are lacking true goaltending. 3 in a row for Samsonov is nice but I wouldn't want him as my starter in the playoffs. And my Oil don't really have a backup that is NHL calibre. If I could have a pool of all 4 of our goalies (Samso, Jones, Skinner, Pickard) I still wouldn't be happy.

I seldom say anything nice about oilers fans because most (not you are A-holes) a large contingent of leaf fans (divine especially) use goaltending as their excuse all the time. Even worse they flip -flop on who their #1 is to justify it.

When Sammy is on he's the #1, when Jones was on he was and somehow Woll and his tiny sample size became the defacto #1 after he was injured because he certainly wasn't at the beginning.

The leafs are a soft, lazy team that because of the flat cap and poor choices have massive roster turnover every season with good players replaced by worse players, rinse and repeat.

The oilers have a shit GM there is no denying that but they have a guy, sometimes two that can carry a team on their back. I give full props for their turnaround and as for the 16 straight sure they have only faced two teams in the top 12 during that but as the leafs constantly show, bad teams can still be a challenge.

But and flame away oilers fans, I think going in to the playoffs with Skinner likely exhausted and a defence and bottom six that hasn't done well against good teams is a recipe for disaster.
There isn't a top team in the west that is so entirely dependent on 1 or two players.

We have seen what an average #97 entails for you guys and if Skinner regresses or gets hurt, it's over.

Kenny boy somehow without really any good chips to use and the fact a lot of players refusing to waive for Edmonton needs to have one hell of a TDL and get a good goalie and a top 4 dman.
If Perry is the best he does I don't think it's enough, even if fully healthy.

 

[Oilslick941611]

The Canucks had a 5 minute major assessed against them.

The Oilers are asking for the ghost of Ty Conkilin if they go to the playoffs with just Skinner. Get a Bennington or Allen.

No, Myers elbowed someone in the head and had a 5 minute major assessed. It wasn't just out of the blue.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

This thread is going to hit like 10+ new pages in one evening if they lose to Vegas lol.

I think they have two weaker teams again right after lol

A lot of people have their posts ready to paste


You should be in a good mood bruh.

Your goalie just stole a game against Chicago. Looked like Hasek out there

At least you’ll have your excuses all lined up.

 

[mkatcherin00]

At least you’ll have your excuses all lined up.

What excuse will I need? We have won 16 in a row with top PK, good PP, top defensive and offensive games and top goaltending besides Helly? No excuses needed. Can't win 50 in a row. Oil best team in NHL past 82 games

lol

 

[Czechboy]

I seldom say anything nice about oilers fans because most (not you are A-holes) a large contingent of leaf fans (divine especially) use goaltending as their excuse all the time. Even worse they flip -flop on who their #1 is to justify it.

When Sammy is on he's the #1, when Jones was on he was and somehow Woll and his tiny sample size became the defacto #1 after he was injured because he certainly wasn't at the beginning.

The leafs are a soft, lazy team that because of the flat cap and poor choices have massive roster turnover every season with good players replaced by worse players, rinse and repeat.

The oilers have a shit GM there is no denying that but they have a guy, sometimes two that can carry a team on their back. I give full props for their turnaround and as for the 16 straight sure they have only faced two teams in the top 12 during that but as the leafs constantly show, bad teams can still be a challenge.

But and flame away oilers fans, I think going in to the playoffs with Skinner likely exhausted and a defence and bottom six that hasn't done well against good teams is a recipe for disaster.
There isn't a top team in the west that is so entirely dependent on 1 or two players.

We have seen what an average #97 entails for you guys and if Skinner regresses or gets hurt, it's over.

Kenny boy somehow without really any good chips to use and the fact a lot of players refusing to waive for Edmonton needs to have one hell of a TDL and get a good goalie and a top 4 dman.
If Perry is the best he does I don't think it's enough, even if fully healthy.

Couldn't agree more.

My only difference in opinion is that I don't think we need a goalie better than Skinner.. I just think we need another NHL goalie so we can have some healthy competition and have a goalie if he falters or gets injured. I have a Czech bias so I've said Mrazek (now signed), Vladar or Vejmelka. Some have shit all over this.lol They should all be inexpensive and an upgrade on Pickard (who has played well).

And, yup, running the same D core against the Avs or Knights is probably not the best idea. I do get that Bouch is better, Ceci is healthy and VD is improving. I don't think it's enough. A RHD Ek is needed. When you look at some of our potential West Opponents'... some of them have an elite D and G. We don't have either (obviously, we have Elite C). Oettinger and Heisk. Hughes and Demko. Helle is better than anything we have and behind a great D. Knights have a beautiful D core. Makar and that whole Avs D is stupid good. We don't match up well there at all.

Essentially, our D is 2 tiers. We have our Top 3 - Ek, Nurse and Bouch. All great but not one is a tippy top guy as they all have limitations. Then we have our next tier of Ceci, Kulak and VD. I'd call them a noticeable drop off from the Top 3. We need another guy... Tanev would be beautiful. Rutta might be fine (and cheap). Walker may be available sooner than later. We don't need a homerun here.. just another guy to make it a top 4 and push Ceci down a notch.

Trade chips are Bourgault, Hollo, Bro, our 1st, Foegele and VD. I don't want to lose any of them but we won't be able to resign Foeg and he's on a heater! VD will be expensive too and may have value now. Bro would hurt a lot as I still think there is an NHL Dman there but he's LD and we are strong there and in win now mode.

 

[mkatcherin00]

It's amazing how a narrative can go completely 180. Going from can they win games, to can they ever lose. Just a crazy year by them.

It's only a crazy narrative to people who paid no attention to Edmonton to start the year. They were leaky and confused, but they still got bad goaltending at times and could not finish at all. They would still outplay a lot of teams. They have just overcorrected like crazy now. Not shooting wise. Structure. It's made our goalies look better and they have got better by themselves as well. Making some big stops

If you look at their record once they picked up Ekholm, they had a crazy run the last 30sh games last year too. Not even bad defensively, but they are playing tighter now.

 

[HabzSauce]

I didn't... but I'd sum it up simpler. Both the Leafs and Oilers are lacking true goaltending. 3 in a row for Samsonov is nice but I wouldn't want him as my starter in the playoffs. And my Oil don't really have a backup that is NHL calibre. If I could have a pool of all 4 of our goalies (Samso, Jones, Skinner, Pickard) I still wouldn't be happy.

Oilers should trade for Jake Allen. Would be great support for Skinner.