If you believe in the fancy stats we have absolutely nothing to worry about. 5v5 xG% is highest in the league by a mile, top 5 in xGA and PDO is hovering around an even 1.00
Oilers are good at hockey again: Back in the plofs
- Thread starter Czechboy
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- Dec 9, 2004
- 8,387
- 13,344
Bet you $10 PK Subban wasn't watching
tardigrade81
Registered User
I always forgot the exact saying. Buf
“Have to be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good” we have had lots of puck luck no doubt
Luigi Lemieux
Registered User
Honestly love the way McDavid is playing. Physical, good defensively, and still creating chances offensively. Rubs off on the whole team when your best player does that. Creates a more cohesive team as well when half the team isn't playing a different way.
I think any streak in that era would have been all regulation wins because there was no overtime. So this current streak would have technically ended at their first non-regulation win, which was their 4th win I believe. It's still an impressive winning streak, mind you.
Cup or Bust
Registered User
- Oct 17, 2017
- 4,626
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I love how McDavid doesn't even give a F@$% when he scores a goal now. No goal celebrations, just all business now. I guess last season he felt like scoring all the goals. His newest trick this season is winning all the games.
KCC
Registered User
- Aug 15, 2007
- 19,454
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He was probably mad because of how bad his team was playing in the first two periods. lol. But he also doesn't seem to care about scoring much either. If it happens it happens but it seems like he just wants to try and focus on defense and help his team in other ways and not worry about points. The rest of the team are contributing and building their confidence as well. Clearly that was his plan all along. He sees the future apparently. Must be load off of him also though. No longer does he need to put up 5 points so his team can squeak out a 6-5 win. lol
North Cole
♧ Lem
- Jan 22, 2017
- 11,878
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It'd kind of a self fufilling prophecy though, McDrai weren't great defenivsly in the past, but there was also no option for them to learn how. You can't work through the defensive throwing pains when your goaltending can't be trusted at any level of the game.
Now that goalies are making the saves the team has a noticeable increase in structure because people aren't running around trying to contain every scoring chance. We used to run in circles chasing the play, only to get torched worse. Now people play their positions and leave the rest to the goalies.
Goalies make saves, team trusts them, plays cohesively with better D. Easier for goalies to make more saves.
zar
Bleed Blue
Bank Shot
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2006
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Over 82 games it usually evens out. Boston was the only team over 102 last season.
CrazyDuck4u
Registered User
- Oct 14, 2006
- 7,613
- 4,747
Panthers Propaganda
We're a team
snag
Registered User
- Feb 22, 2014
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OT came back in 83-84 after being stopped as a wartime measure in '42
And it would have ended at 4...and they would now be on a 10 game heater
- Apr 27, 2005
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Yeah, it's amazing how extreme the Oilers puck luck has been this year.
Look at these 5v5 splits:
Through their first 29 games, they led the league in xGF% but had a record of only 13-15-1, mostly because they had the 2nd worst PDO in the league at 97.2:
They had a -8 5v5 goal differential vs a +21 expected goal differential, a -29 goal swing (so their 5v5 GD was exactly 1 goal lower per game, which is outrageous considering only half the teams in the league score more than 2 total 5v5 goals per game)
But in their last 14 games, it's completely switched. They are still top 2 in 5v5 xGF%, but they went from 2nd worst the 2nd best PDO a 104.2:
During this streak, they've enjoyed a +22 5v5 goal differential vs +9 expected goal differential, a +13 goal swing (so instead of losing 1 5v5 goal per game vs expected, they've gained ~1 goal per game).
What's crazy is that despite this current hot streak, their 5v5 goal differential still trails their expected differential by ~16 goals, and their PDO is still only 19th in the league at 99.4, which is much lower than it should be.
So even though their current streak is unsustainable long term, they could hypothetically remain hot for another ~10-15 games before they fully catch up on their puck luck. That's not to say that they will, or even that it's expected, but that just highlights how poor their puck luck (and goaltending) was the start the year.
Really makes you feel bad for Jay Woodcroft. The Oilers were the best 5v5 team in the league under him, they just couldn't finish and couldn't get the saves. Their poor puck luck cost him his job.
Devils do you mind sharing with me where you find these stat splits.
He couldn't coach defense for shit and ran a second straight lax training camp. Is what it is, yes there was bad luck at the beginning of the season, but that's also why you need to be harder on details as a coach to weather stretches like that.
The Oilers have been I think the best team in the league since like Nov. 10 ... that's now like 2 1/2 months ago, this is more than just one streak at this point. They've essentially been the best team in the league for more than half the season at this point after a terrible start.
McFlyingV
Registered User
Naturalstattrick allows you to sort by a specified time period. Just click the more filters tab.
- Apr 27, 2005
- 36,107
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- Apr 27, 2005
- 36,107
- 35,942
Yet somehow the Oilers had the best 5v5 numbers in the league. He can only do so much - if the shooters and goaltenders are going through a rough patch, and their confidence drops, the team is going to have some really ugly looking games where guys stop trusting each other and things look terrible. But he can only keep pushing them to continue outplaying their opponent.
McFlyingV
Registered User
I don't disagree that the Oilers were playing well despite their terrible record to start the season and some of it was just terrible goaltending and terrible finishing. But there was without a doubt way more catastrophic defensive mistakes that advanced stats can't account for. They give you a general idea of what happened in a game, but they can't tell you the drastic difference that exists between high danger chances, and Edmonton was creating some very bad high danger chances against for themselves.
winnipegger
Registered User
- Dec 17, 2013
- 8,685
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