GDT: Offseason game thread

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yeah, well, I like the kid, but I'm still waiting to hear about the progress he's made in his development. I don't care how pretty his skating is. I keep hearing how Mersch, Dowd and Brodzinski have shown an improvement in their results and how Auger, Crescenzi and JST have grown into a potent penalty-kill unit (best in the AHL, I believe.) They're all-in, every game. I haven't heard much this year about Kempe.

Is Kempe just a good-looking ballplayer? /Moneyball Are we in love with his draft position? What does he do very, very well?

Kempe is just inconsistent and learning to play in a new country and rink size. When he's on, he's unstoppable. When he's not, he's just kind of there, but still making good plays and passes. He's certainly still figuring out the defensive side, but yes, he has grown immensely since the beginning of the year. What does he do very well? Skate, so fluid and so fast. Shoot, already one of the best shots in our organization (think Tanner Pearson with a more deceptive release). Needs more work on the defensive side and puck protection but more from a learning-the-game standpoint than a he-doesn't-have-IT or get it standpoint.

Sheng, JDL, and others are here constantly talking him up. It's not because of draft pedigree, they see what many of us going to Ontario games do: a 19 year old, 6'2", speedy ball of clay who is feisty as hell, doesn't shy away from contact or scrums (hell, he starts a million of them), and has LOTS of room to grow.

IIRC he dropped because of questions about his ultimate upside--i.e. you don't want a top-10 pick that's a 3rd liner--but he obviously grew after the draft too as he was the youngest player in his draft.

In other words, there is VERY little doubt he will be a good NHLer--the question is HOW good.

Actually now that I think about it he reminds me of Pearson quite a bit, just angrier and slightly bigger with the potential for 20 more lbs (and has more of a 'give me the puck' mentality imo). I WILL say I'm not sold on his ability to drive a line at the NHL level (i.e. Kopitar) yet but it's still very very early.

 

[cyclones22]

It's not a time for a new coach. Sutter's system is what has made the kings dominate the last 4+years. Being one of the top corsi teams in the league is impressive and usually leads to success. If you were to pick your playoff bracket based on corsi you would have correctly picked 6 of 8 first round matchups.

Who would you replace him with? I don't want Hartley, don't want Bruce B, and don't want a rookie coach.

I want to see Gravel and Forbort permanently with the kings next year and think we will even if one cycles the 6/7 spot.

I agree with this. I think what DL needs to do is pull a Billy Beane on Art Howe and just straight up trade away the guys who shouldn't be in the lineup anymore and force Sutter to play the kids. A coach's job is not just to lead and strategize, but to also teach and develop. Gravel and Forbort should be getting regular minutes next season or part of a package which brings us a top 4 defenseman. Either way, they have to be part of the solution of fixing our back end. And King was absolute garbage this season. I don't know how many times he failed to get a puck through the neutral zone for even a successful dump and chase scenario. He was constantly giving the puck away at center ice with failed pass attempts. DL needs to get rid of him and clear some other players out to give our young defenders a chance to show their stuff.

 

[YP44]

I agree with this. I think what DL needs to do is pull a Billy Beane on Art Howe and just straight up trade away the guys who shouldn't be in the lineup anymore and force Sutter to play the kids. A coach's job is not just to lead and strategize, but to also teach and develop. Gravel and Forbort should be getting regular minutes next season or part of a package which brings us a top 4 defenseman. Either way, they have to be part of the solution of fixing our back end. And King was absolute garbage this season. I don't know how many times he failed to get a puck through the neutral zone for even a successful dump and chase scenario. He was constantly giving the puck away at center ice with failed pass attempts. DL needs to get rid of him and clear some other players out to give our young defenders a chance to show their stuff.

but you have to find someone who will take the likes of Greene and Scuderi..I could see King being moved out, but it will have to be a obvious win for LA.

 

[deeshamrock]

It's not a time for a new coach. Sutter's system is what has made the kings dominate the last 4+years. Being one of the top corsi teams in the league is impressive and usually leads to success. If you were to pick your playoff bracket based on corsi you would have correctly picked 6 of 8 first round matchups.

Who would you replace him with? I don't want Hartley, don't want Bruce B, and don't want a rookie coach.

I want to see Gravel and Forbort permanently with the kings next year and think we will even if one cycles the 6/7 spot.

I think that is something DL will really put some thought into, esp on what feedback he got from his players in the exit interviews. For the last 2 seasons, the team has underachieved. This years team was the same as last, save the 20 pts or so they got from getting the GTG with the goalie pulled and GWG in OT. It doesn't change the fact far too many games were 1 goal games against teams they should have been better than. Far too few, being the best team for all 3 periods, taking a 3-1 lead into the 3rd and locking it down.
Sutter's system is effective but brutally hard to play and mentally and physically taxing. For that many players to struggle, you have to think that playing that system for almost 5 yrs now is taking a toll. And he mismanaging some players minutes rather badly the last part of the year.
I'm sure DL will do what's best, and John Stevens is already on board, he's a smart guy, and will be capable taking over the helm if that is the choice made.
But something has to change, if not Sutter, than perhaps they tweak the system, because it hasn't been a succesful one for the last 2 seasons.

 

[Omni Owl]

The team needs a new voice in the room, look how well a coaching change has worked for Pittsburgh. Also sick of hearing about how great our Corsi and GAA was for the season, and where the **** did that get us in the playoffs? I like Sutter, but I think its just time for him and the organization to part ways.

 

[AlphaBravo]

-Regarding Sutter: I think Sutter's system has proven to produce champions. However, I would be interested to see how our high end talent (Kopitar, Doughty, Toffoli, Carter etc.) would perform under a different system, a system like Nashville has or the Ducks. Discussing a coaching change is a fair topic not because Sutter is a bad coach, but because the voice of the coach gets stale after a while and teams need a shake up.

-Regarding Rookie Defensemen: With respect to playing our young defensemen, Gravel and Fobert, I understand why Sutter chose to go with the vets. This year the Kings were gunning for another championship, and while these rookie defensemen looked good in the limited minutes they played (Gravel more than Fobert), they could have been a disaster, and their development ruined, if they were suddenly given 20+ minutes in the playoffs out of all places. The better approach would have been to play them more throughout the year to build them up for the playoffs, but the team had serious concerns about risking not making the playoffs again and DL tried to make quick fixes on the fly. They simply couldn't afford to take any risky chances on rookies.

-Regarding The Team's Future: Based on what happened the last two years, Sutter and DL may need to reconsider their 3-5 year plan. There are too many holes in this roster for us to be competitive next year for a cup. Watching how deep the teams are in the second round, I just don't see how DL can plug the holes via trades or FA signings. I think at this stage, we should set new expectations every year, play the young players from Ontario, and not put the pressure on them of winning the cup next year. I said this before, but the Kings should view this upcoming year with the same mentality they had entering the 2010-2011 season: try to make the playoffs and get past one round. The Kings need to get past the fact that they won two cups between 2012-2014 and focus on the here and now.

 

[YP44]

I think that is something DL will really put some thought into, esp on what feedback he got from his players in the exit interviews. For the last 2 seasons, the team has underachieved. This years team was the same as last, save the 20 pts or so they got from getting the GTG with the goalie pulled and GWG in OT. It doesn't change the fact far too many games were 1 goal games against teams they should have been better than. Far too few, being the best team for all 3 periods, taking a 3-1 lead into the 3rd and locking it down.
Sutter's system is effective but brutally hard to play and mentally and physically taxing. For that many players to struggle, you have to think that playing that system for almost 5 yrs now is taking a toll. And he mismanaging some players minutes rather badly the last part of the year.
I'm sure DL will do what's best, and John Stevens is already on board, he's a smart guy, and will be capable taking over the helm if that is the choice made.
But something has to change, if not Sutter, than perhaps they tweak the system, because it hasn't been a succesful one for the last 2 seasons.

I thought this was the last year on sutters deal (have since been told otherwise) and thought maybe he might be moved into a front office type role when he was ready to be done coaching. I still think that maybe likely.

 

[BigKing]

Any concerns with Sutter revolve around diminishing returns for his system over time.

Now, I'm just going by memory with Calgary but they seemed to burst on the scene in '04 and then Sutter rode Kiprusoff as far as he could ride him until it fell apart. Some of this may have to do with Sutter becoming GM as well but, regardless, my concern is that players can only take him for so long before its just too much.

Pure conjecture on my part possibly but I always think about it when I see Quick playing in his 78th game of the season and Doughty playing 30 minutes a night.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

-Regarding Sutter: I think Sutter's system has proven to produce champions. However, I would be interested to see how our high end talent (Kopitar, Doughty, Toffoli, Carter etc.) would perform under a different system, a system like Nashville has or the Ducks. Discussing a coaching change is a fair topic not because Sutter is a bad coach, but because the voice of the coach gets stale after a while and teams need a shake up.

-Regarding Rookie Defensemen: With respect to playing our young defensemen, Gravel and Fobert, I understand why Sutter chose to go with the vets. This year the Kings were gunning for another championship, and while these rookie defensemen looked good in the limited minutes they played (Gravel more than Fobert), they could have been a disaster, and their development ruined, if they were suddenly given 20+ minutes in the playoffs out of all places. The better approach would have been to play them more throughout the year to build them up for the playoffs, but the team had serious concerns about risking not making the playoffs again and DL tried to make quick fixes on the fly. They simply couldn't afford to take any risky chances on rookies.

-Regarding The Team's Future: Based on what happened the last two years, Sutter and DL may need to reconsider their 3-5 year plan. There are too many holes in this roster for us to be competitive next year for a cup. Watching how deep the teams are in the second round, I just don't see how DL can plug the holes via trades or FA signings. I think at this stage, we should set new expectations every year, play the young players from Ontario, and not put the pressure on them of winning the cup next year. I said this before, but the Kings should view this upcoming year with the same mentality they had entering the 2010-2011 season: try to make the playoffs and get past one round. The Kings need to get past the fact that they won two cups between 2012-2014 and focus on the here and now.

I agree with your "future" point. BUT, things can change in a hurry if they can unload Brown without taking back a lot of salary. That'll give them another $4-5 million to play with that could be used to bring in a 2nd pair defenseman (Hamhuis?). Of course that's a gigantic "if" though.

 

[AlphaBravo]

I agree with your "future" point. BUT, things can change in a hurry if they can unload Brown without taking back a lot of salary. That'll give them another $4-5 million to play with that could be used to bring in a 2nd pair defenseman (Hamhuis?). Of course that's a gigantic "if" though.

Well Hamhuis made it clear that he wants to stay in Vancouver. That's why Dean did not even bother trading for him because he already got burned on the Sekera trade.

Unloading Brown is the $6 million issue. If we unload his contract with less than $2 million retained, it is possible to maybe sign Yandle. But, again, Yandle alone wont make us a cup contender. There is a lack of will on this team that cannot be fixed by roster moves. Also, we are missing a 3rd line center, a decent one of which will cost us at least $3 million, and we need a Versteeg/Shaw type of skilled forward in the bottom six to go deep in the playoffs. Not sure if we can fit all that within the cap.

We can also try to fix those roster holes through our young players, but I am not too optimistic they will make us cup contenders next year. There are no more Toffoli's and Pearson's in our system. Shore has been a failure so far or, at best, a career 4th line center, Dowd and Mersch looked decent, but are still question marks, and Kempe will probably just get called up for his cup of coffee next year, but is unlikely to be full time on the roster. I never thought I would say this, but Andy Andreoff is the one young forward we have that has shown in the NHL level (so far) to have some upside.

 

[YP44]

Well Hamhuis made it clear that he wants to stay in Vancouver. That's why Dean did not even bother trading for him because he already got burned on the Sekera trade.

Unloading Brown is the $6 million issue. If we unload his contract with less than $2 million retained, it is possible to maybe sign Yandle. But, again, Yandle alone wont make us a cup contender. There is a lack of will on this team that cannot be fixed by roster moves. Also, we are missing a 3rd line center, a decent one of which will cost us at least $3 million, and we need a Versteeg/Shaw type of skilled forward in the bottom six to go deep in the playoffs. Not sure if we can fit all that within the cap.

We can also try to fix those roster holes through our young players, but I am not too optimistic they will make us cup contenders next year. There are no more Toffoli's and Pearson's in our system. Shore has been a failure so far or, at best, a career 4th line center, Dowd and Mersch looked decent, but are still question marks, and Kempe will probably just get called up for his cup of coffee next year, but is unlikely to be full time on the roster. I never thought I would say this, but Andy Andreoff is the one young forward we have that has shown in the NHL level (so far) to have some upside.

Mersch has shown he can play in the NHL, at least I thought he looked good in his brief stint this year.
I have to disagree if we somehow are able to bring in a Yandle. I think this team is a cup contender with a shored up D, Quick, Doughty, Kopitar, Carter and Toffoli.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

A little off topic but has there been any update on Greene's recovery ? I read somewhere that he may not recover fully and may have to retire ? Also any update on Nolan as well

 

[YP44]

A little off topic but has there been any update on Greene's recovery ? I read somewhere that he may not recover fully and may have to retire ? Also any update on Nolan as well

feel for Greene. I am very grateful for what he has brought to the kings, however if he had to stay away and go on LTIR for the remainder of his deal it would not be the worse thing for the kings. And would maybe explain bringing in scuds as he still has 1 year left on his deal.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

Well Hamhuis made it clear that he wants to stay in Vancouver. That's why Dean did not even bother trading for him because he already got burned on the Sekera trade.

Unloading Brown is the $6 million issue. If we unload his contract with less than $2 million retained, it is possible to maybe sign Yandle. But, again, Yandle alone wont make us a cup contender. There is a lack of will on this team that cannot be fixed by roster moves. Also, we are missing a 3rd line center, a decent one of which will cost us at least $3 million, and we need a Versteeg/Shaw type of skilled forward in the bottom six to go deep in the playoffs. Not sure if we can fit all that within the cap.

We can also try to fix those roster holes through our young players, but I am not too optimistic they will make us cup contenders next year. There are no more Toffoli's and Pearson's in our system. Shore has been a failure so far or, at best, a career 4th line center, Dowd and Mersch looked decent, but are still question marks, and Kempe will probably just get called up for his cup of coffee next year, but is unlikely to be full time on the roster. I never thought I would say this, but Andy Andreoff is the one young forward we have that has shown in the NHL level (so far) to have some upside.

I still think Bozak is a good option. Clifford + a 2017 2nd for Bozak + $1.2 million retained. Gives us Bozak at $3 million for the next 2 years.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

I still think Bozak is a good option. Clifford + a 2017 2nd for Bozak + $1.2 million retained. Gives us Bozak at $3 million for the next 2 years.

i don't think clifford would do it. I think King and the 2nd might

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Any concerns with Sutter revolve around diminishing returns for his system over time.

Now, I'm just going by memory with Calgary but they seemed to burst on the scene in '04 and then Sutter rode Kiprusoff as far as he could ride him until it fell apart. Some of this may have to do with Sutter becoming GM as well but, regardless, my concern is that players can only take him for so long before its just too much.

Pure conjecture on my part possibly but I always think about it when I see Quick playing in his 78th game of the season and Doughty playing 30 minutes a night.

Yeah, I raised that point elsewhere, too. I can't think of another team that looks as consistently tired as we have since the start of 2014. I questioned whether it was the Sutter system or the Strength/Conditioning staff (we lost our previous guy to Calgary).

Sutter hasn't signed yet; I can imagine everyone is doing some serious soul-searching right now. But if not Sutter, i'd expect stevens. I dont' expect the system to change, especially now that it's been established throughout the org, but I do expect a solution in some form, even if it's the Art-Howeing referenced above.

No post-season Sutter signing OR Sutter, DL media availability (and Brown disappearing without interviews) tells me something is up. Doesn't necessarily have to be a conspiracy or anything huge, but I'm sure the gears are turning back there, they're not just sipping Mai Tais.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

i don't think clifford would do it. I think King and the 2nd might

Obviously just fan's perspective but most Leaf fans think a 2nd is enough for Bozak. Throw in Clifford and Forbort then since Forbort has to clear waivers anyways and I doubt he's on the Kings roster next season.

 

[AlphaBravo]

I still think Bozak is a good option. Clifford + a 2017 2nd for Bozak + $1.2 million retained. Gives us Bozak at $3 million for the next 2 years.

Bozak would be perfect for our third line, but even at $1.2 retained, we would have to unload Brown to fit $6 million for Lucic, $3 million for Bozak, and the money we need to get a top 4 defender to be competitive. With Lucic and Bozak alone we are still not competitive, unless Gravel surprises us in his full rookie year. Another option, I suppose, is to focus on setting up the forward lineup in the offseason, and trying to get that top 4 defenseman at the trade deadline.

 

[YP44]

i don't think clifford would do it. I think King and the 2nd might

I would be all for bringing in Bozak...but I would prefer to try and find a way to keep all draft picks.

 

[YP44]

Bozak would be perfect for our third line, but even at $1.2 retained, we would have to unload Brown to fit $6 million for Lucic, $3 million for Bozak, and the money we need to get a top 4 defender to be competitive. With Lucic and Bozak alone we are still not competitive, unless Gravel surprises us in his full rookie year. Another option, I suppose, is to focus on setting up the forward lineup in the offseason, and trying to get that top 4 defenseman at the trade deadline.

I think Gravel will be in the top 4 by the end of next year. I like him a lot.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

Bozak would be perfect for our third line, but even at $1.2 retained, we would have to unload Brown to fit $6 million for Lucic, $3 million for Bozak, and the money we need to get a top 4 defender to be competitive. With Lucic and Bozak alone we are still not competitive, unless Gravel surprises us in his full rookie year. Another option, I suppose, is to focus on setting up the forward lineup in the offseason, and trying to get that top 4 defenseman at the trade deadline.

Yeah, Brown should be the first domino. They can afford Brown, Gaborik, and Lucic but they shouldn't keep all 3. One of the three can't be on the team next season or else it'll be the exact same result as this season because the roster will be the same.

 

[YP44]

Yeah, Brown should be the first domino. They can afford Brown, Gaborik, and Lucic but they shouldn't keep all 3. One of the three can't be on the team next season or else it'll be the exact same result as this season because the roster will be the same.

I would almost prefer to get rid of Gaborik as i think it maybe more likely it would not require the retention that Brown would. Plus the fact he is 3 years older than Brown worries me.

Brown is still effective when not scoring, but we all agree there is no way he is worth almost $6M. Gaborik is not as effective when not scoring IMO.

 

[h2oroosta]

Would Brown lift his limited no movement for Buffalo?

He's originally from Ithaca. We have $10mil in cap space. Even if we retain $3, it still gives $2.875 to free up cap space. Trade King, which frees up another $1.9. He's a UFA anyways the following year. That's almost another $5 in cap space. Mersch is a perfectly acceptable replacement for King. Lewis, I think, would sign for the same amount. Isn't Lewis really Brown now? The real question is Lucic take 5 to 6 over 8. If he goes somewhere else, he'll lose a year for sure. Then fill in the rest of the roster with Dowd, Gravel and Forbort, and I think you're under the cap. If Greene is healthy, he's your 5/6, if not, then Scuderi is (otherwise I'd hide Scuderi in the minors). Would Buffalo give us Fasching back for Brown (w/ $3mil retained) and King. At this point, I'd take a bag of pucks. You have to free up space for Toffoli and Pearson the following year.

Roster would look like

Lucic - Kopitar - Gaborik ($20-21mil)
Pearson - Carter - Toffoli ($10 mil)
Mersch - Dowd - Lewis ($3 mil/assuming Lewis signs at $1.5ish/Dowd at $750)
Clifford - Andreoff - Nolan ($3.2 mil)
Shore - FA/Rookie (say $2.2 if FA signing of $1.5 - maybe Versteeg at that #)
Richards ($1.2)
Brown ($3)
Forwards are about $44 mil

Doughty - McNabb ($8.5, say $1-1.5 for McNabb)
Muzzin - Gravel ($4.7)
AMart - Greene ($6.5)
Forbort ($850 - say he resigns at the same amount)
That's about $20.5 with Scuderi in the minors

Quick-Budaj ($6.5 - not sure why you sign another back up).

That's about $71 million with about $3 million in cap space.

You absolutely have to save at least $6, probably $8 for Toffoli, Pearson, Grave, Andreoffl and (to a lesser extent) Shore. Toffoli is going to get $6 (3 million raise), Pearson closer to $2-2.5 (1 mil), Andreoff $1.2 ($600K) and Gravel $1.5 ($900K) and maybe Shore ($300K)

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

I would almost prefer to get rid of Gaborik as i think it maybe more likely it would not require the retention that Brown would. Plus the fact he is 3 years older than Brown worries me.

Brown is still effective when not scoring, but we all agree there is no way he is worth almost $6M. Gaborik is not as effective when not scoring IMO.

I agree with everything you're saying but Gaborik in a bad year still scores more than Brown. Plus he still has plus speed which is something the Kings sorely lack. Also if you trade Gaborik then you have a hole in the top 6 again. 17-11-?, 70-77-73. You'll then have to play Brown or King up there all season (until a trade) unless they can convince a guy like Versteeg to sign for below market value.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

He's originally from Ithaca. We have $10mil in cap space. Even if we retain $3, it still gives $2.875 to free up cap space. Trade King, which frees up another $1.9. He's a UFA anyways the following year. That's almost another $5 in cap space. Mersch is a perfectly acceptable replacement for King. Lewis, I think, would sign for the same amount. Isn't Lewis really Brown now? The real question is Lucic take 5 to 6 over 8. If he goes somewhere else, he'll lose a year for sure. Then fill in the rest of the roster with Dowd, Gravel and Forbort, and I think you're under the cap. If Greene is healthy, he's your 5/6, if not, then Scuderi is (otherwise I'd hide Scuderi in the minors). Would Buffalo give us Fasching back for Brown (w/ $3mil retained) and King. At this point, I'd take a bag of pucks. You have to free up space for Toffoli and Pearson the following year.

Roster would look like

Lucic - Kopitar - Gaborik ($20-21mil)
Pearson - Carter - Toffoli ($10 mil)
Mersch - Dowd - Lewis ($3 mil/assuming Lewis signs at $1.5ish/Dowd at $750)
Clifford - Andreoff - Nolan ($3.2 mil)
Shore - FA/Rookie (say $2.2 if FA signing of $1.5 - maybe Versteeg at that #)
Richards ($1.2)
Brown ($3)
Forwards are about $44 mil

Doughty - McNabb ($8.5, say $1-1.5 for McNabb)
Muzzin - Gravel ($4.7)
AMart - Greene ($6.5)
Forbort ($850 - say he resigns at the same amount)
That's about $20.5 with Scuderi in the minors

Quick-Budaj ($6.5 - not sure why you sign another back up).

That's about $71 million with about $3 million in cap space.

You absolutely have to save at least $6, probably $8 for Toffoli, Pearson, Grave, Andreoffl and (to a lesser extent) Shore. Toffoli is going to get $6 (3 million raise), Pearson closer to $2-2.5 (1 mil), Andreoff $1.2 ($600K) and Gravel $1.5 ($900K) and maybe Shore ($300K)

And I don't think your above lineup is even close to a championship caliber lineup unless either the top guys really have great years or the bottom guys surprise us. Also don't think Andreoff and Gravel get raises that high unless they have huge years.

If they do trade Brown to Buffalo, I'd make sure Franson is coming back the other way. Right handed puck mover on a 1 year deal at $3.325 million.