GDT: Offseason 2023 Thread - Now what do we do?

[bleedgreen]

Depends on who you're trading him for.

I don't think they expected him to be a grindy playoff point getter. He was a disaster trying to carry the puck, which is what he's supposed to be good at. Everything he did well this season, he did not do well in the playoffs.

That being said, he's making 3 mill next year? Worst case scenario, he plays like you'd expect a 3 mill a year player to play, which is an inconsistent .5 ppg guy.

BUT if you can get someone you can rely on and he's the cost, you hop on the chance. No 3v3 in the playoffs.

The team has said they want to add not subtract when they approached the deadline. I don’t know that they’re going to stray from that very much when dealing with the guys under contract. The first guys out the door tend to be those who need contracts. Necas is cost controlled for the time being and like you say isn’t expensive. More likely we’d use him for trade next off season if you were looking just at him individually. Next year being what it is I don’t know that he’s going anywhere.

Having said all that you’d think we’re frustrated with our level of success overall, maybe we’re going to shake it up. I think if Tulsky stays they’ll stay the course personally.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

We should try to get Brady Tkachuk out of Ottawa.

I want what you’re smoking.

 

[WhiteTiger]

Some thoughts:

-Making the playoffs and winning at least one round 5 years in a row is a real achievement, and the first time the Canes have consistently sustained success in franchise history. A great run after the decade of darkness.

-After Svechnikov went down, I would have been happy just winning one round, and thrilled with an ECF. Disappointing that they got swept there yet again (12 straight losses is absurd), especially given it felt like the bracket had opened up with an 8 seed making it (though they definitely didn‘t play like one).

-Third year in a row they’ve been Russian Goalie’d and a bit outmuscled in the playoffs. I really want to see another top 6 forward and a bit more grit added, and the PP addressed at last. For all the success of the last 5 years, I’m not convinced they can go all the way as currently constructed. The cap space and assets are there to get it done, let’s go for it.

 

[Negan4Coach]

Maybe, or maybe it's just "why do rentals at the trade deadline that have to come learn a new system and are ultimately a total wildcard when we can keep the folks we know are good."

I do agree though on a guy like, say, Dougie. If you're gonna money puck, might as well go full out money puck.

Yeah I get it- if we had traded for Meier or whomever at the deadline- that wouldn’t have made a difference in these playoffs. It takes a whole-of-team effort to crack an elite goalie on a hot streak. And not merely defensively responsible, hardworking forwards. But talented finishers and tougher guys who can crash the net and impose an air of intimidation on the other team.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Yeah I get it- if we had traded for Meier or whomever at the deadline- that wouldn’t have made a difference in these playoffs. It takes a whole-of-team effort to crack an elite goalie on a hot streak. And not merely defensively responsible, hardworking forwards. But talented finishers and tougher guys who can crash the net and impose an air of intimidation on the other team.

It might've, who knows. A lot of it is "butterfly flaps its wings" when we start talking about what-ifs.

I think the most likely outcome of us trading for Tkachuk is that we're playing Boston in the ECF instead and probably get eliminated anyway. Maybe if we trade for Meier, we get the Rangers in the 2nd round and have our hands full-er with them than we did with NJ.

Point being though, we won't make moves for the sake of maximizing our chances in one season because we're talking about fractions of percentage points that it actually gives you in one way or another. Florida didn't do anything at the deadline either (and when they did last year, they lost).

If the Canes are going to make big moves, they'll be with the long-term in mind. And in fairness, both Tkachuk and Meier theoretically would've been that. They're also just going to be disciplined consumers who don't pay prices they consider to be unreasonable, and perhaps that's where you can fault them. I think in both of those cases there are valid reasons it didn't happen though (Tkachuk: we weren't beating Florida's package. Meier: the weird behind the scenes stuff that was being reported with Grier and NJ where NJ got right of last refusal or whatever.)

 

[Svechhammer]

It might've, who knows. A lot of it is "butterfly flaps its wings" when we start talking about what-ifs.

I think the most likely outcome of us trading for Tkachuk is that we're playing Boston in the ECF instead and probably get eliminated anyway. Maybe if we trade for Meier, we get the Rangers in the 2nd round and have our hands full-er with them than we did with NJ.

Point being though, we won't make moves for the sake of maximizing our chances in one season because we're talking about fractions of percentage points that it actually gives you in one way or another. Florida didn't do anything at the deadline either (and when they did last year, they lost).

If the Canes are going to make big moves, they'll be with the long-term in mind. And in fairness, both Tkachuk and Meier theoretically would've been that. They're also just going to be disciplined consumers who don't pay prices they consider to be unreasonable, and perhaps that's where you can fault them. I think in both of those cases there are valid reasons it didn't happen though (Tkachuk: we weren't beating Florida's package. Meier: the weird behind the scenes stuff that was being reported with Grier and NJ where NJ got right of last refusal or whatever.)

I will say this, if we had Tkachuk in the fold and locked up, I would feel much better about our medium term future than I do right now. You can moneypuck a really good team around elite talent, and that is where I think our front office would really shine if given the opportunity. Where we struggle right now is we are trying to create an elite player's contributions in the margins, which is really, really hard to do, and we haven't yet really proven that we can.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I will say this, if we had Tkachuk in the fold and locked up, I would feel much better about our medium term future than I do right now. You can moneypuck a really good team around elite talent, and that is where I think our front office would really shine if given the opportunity. Where we struggle right now is we are trying to create an elite player's contributions in the margins, which is really, really hard to do, and we haven't yet really proven that we can.

I'm with you here in thought process, maybe not in the bolded conclusion, but that's beside the point (I think it really depends on your definition of success - we've done a really good job the last 3 years being a pretty damn good team). I think Aho has been doing a really good impression of being elite talent, and I think the jury is still out on whether Svech can become that type of player but I get the sense he'll fall a tier short.

Let's be clear though that the caliber of player we're talking about nowadays with Tkachuk is a flat out top 10 player in the league. That's not the same as a Meier. I think you can win with 3 or 4 Aho/Svech/Meier/Necas(?) caliber guys at the top instead of one or two Tkachuk/Matthews/Marners. Because Tkachuk's aren't available all that often, if ever. Last year was a very unique situation. We're not going to be drafting near the top any time soon, so we'd need to luck into a Kucherov (not unlike we lucked into Aho), but you can't really count on that, you can only maximize the amount of picks that you have, which we've done very well at.

The best we can do is be in on every one of these elite guys, and we have been. Maybe a lesson from last offseason and the trade deadline is to be willing to take a bit of a haircut on some of these deals in order to get your guy. It doesn't have to be an either/or. You can still win your "smartest team in the league" deals and bring in your Burnses and your Pacioretties at pennies on the dollar, being exceptionally efficient in those dealings. And, with the surplus of picks and prospects you get from being that efficient in those dealings, you can afford to overpay a bit for when the big fish come around, which they don't do all that often.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

On that note about Svech, though, next 2 years will be big. This upcoming season for him, his 6th, tracks to the same year Tkachuk had his big breakout. Power forwards do take a bit of time to figure out their physical dominance, it's not always the same speed as the skilled guys.

I'm saying 2 years because who knows what we get out of him next year with his injury. But the first 5 years of his career, scoresheet-wise, looks pretty eerily similar to Tkachuk's. I don't think he's as mean, but I do think he's a better skater. It's not impossible that he's got another level to hit, and could become the caliber of player (or close to it) that we're talking about here.



EDIT: Stats for both thru 5 seasons. Even more similar than at first glance.

Tkachuk: 349GP, 110G, 168A, 278P

Svech: 347GP, 112G, 152A, 264P

 

[QuebeCaniac]

Is it reasonable to expect Pacioretty to play next season? Getting back from double ruptured achille? Anyone heard/read anything about expected recovery time?

We might have some answers tomorrow with the end-of-season interviews...

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Is it reasonable to expect Pacioretty to play next season? Getting back from double ruptured achille? Anyone heard/read anything about expected recovery time?

We might have some answers tomorrow with the end-of-season interviews...

I think it's reasonable to expect it's a possibility. I think it would be unreasonable for him to be considered as anything but a bonus by the front office (similar to how they treated the Kase signing this year).

I'm not a doctor (I suppose), but if his new timeline is anything like his initial timeline and he's just back to square 1, he did injure it 6 months earlier in the year than he did last offseason. Give him extra time to ensure it's fully stable, and sure, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Canes jersey again.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

On that note about Svech, though, next 2 years will be big. This upcoming season for him, his 6th, tracks to the same year Tkachuk had his big breakout. Power forwards do take a bit of time to figure out their physical dominance, it's not always the same speed as the skilled guys.

I'm saying 2 years because who knows what we get out of him next year with his injury. But the first 5 years of his career, scoresheet-wise, looks pretty eerily similar to Tkachuk's. I don't think he's as mean, but I do think he's a better skater. It's not impossible that he's got another level to hit, and could become the caliber of player (or close to it) that we're talking about here.



EDIT: Stats for both thru 5 seasons. Even more similar than at first glance.

Tkachuk: 349GP, 110G, 168A, 278P

Svech: 347GP, 112G, 152A, 264P

MT's first 5 season's points per 60 = 2.761
AS's = 2.728

using MT's ice time and Svech's points per 60, that would be a difference of 7 points.

 

[Lempo]

Is it reasonable to expect Pacioretty to play next season? Getting back from double ruptured achille? Anyone heard/read anything about expected recovery time?

We might have some answers tomorrow with the end-of-season interviews...

Operated in Finland in January. The surgeon says minimum 8 to 9 months to be fit for NHL. "It is a different thing to play pond hockey after six months than to be in an NHL rink."

Jättipalkkainen NHL-tähti saapui kaikessa hiljaisuudessa Suomeen – teki kovan päätöksen lauantai-iltana (in Finnish).

Then obviously there's the minor matter that his contract expires this summer. Due to his time spent in injured reserve, he's qualified to get a one year contract with performance bonuses for 2023-24. Whether that is what he and Canes want, we can only guess.

 

[ndp]

When it comes to Tkachuk, remember he wanted out. Likely because of Sutter. Going to playing for Sutter to playing for Rod, that’s getting close to six in one hand half dozen in the other when your a star forward.

 

[Bub]

Watched the first two games. Pesce looked cooked out there. I think they trade him rather than let him play out his final year. Sorry Skjei.

Though the loss isn't Pesce's fault. It's no ones fault. Hurricanes were an average offense with Svechnikov. They acquired Pacioretty to fix that. They got hurt. Then they ran into an insanely hot Bob. Sucks cause this is probably the best chance they'll get with this core, all the previous roadblocks had been cleared in the first round.

Yep.

If shot totals remained the same, and Bob runs at a solid .921 sv pct (what our guys had this series) instead of the .966 he finished with, we score ELEVEN more goals. Think those would've helped?

Other things mattered too, of course--untimely injuries, special teams letdowns at bad moments--but that was the single biggest factor, to my mind, in this series. By far.

 

[Svechhammer]

2 of those are the goalies we played the last 2 times we went to the ECF. 43 years of history and we represent the opponent for 2 of the top 5 Sv% in the conference finals.

Our finishing is bad, borderline historically bad when put in this context.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

CU^T

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

or a goalie gets really hot. its weird that three of those goalies faced good offenses and shut them down but we have historically low finishing ability. i know that 2013 pittsburgh team had a really good offense.

 

[sheriff bart]

Do I ever hate that I missed the “fire Brindy” thread since it was locked. Here’s my response

 

[Lempo]

Do I ever hate that I missed the “fire Brindy” thread since it was locked. Here’s my response
View attachment 712672

You missed nothing of worth.

An isles fan actually started a thread on main board where his only content, in the widest definition of the word, was some isles fan's twitter post of a mocking pic of Rod and one sentence's worth of commentary. Not gonna lie, the isles fans crawling out of the woodwork now, after two series of playoffs hockey since their elimination, is actually kind of funny.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

If we want to talk about the "butterfly effect", what happens if we lose that final regular season game against Florida.

IIRC, Jersey would have won the division, and Florida would have leaped the Islanders in the standings, so the first round would have been:

Boston/Islanders
Jersey/Florida
Carolina/Rangers
Leafs/Lightning

I think we struggle to get past the first round if that happens.

 

[DaveG]

Is it reasonable to expect Pacioretty to play next season? Getting back from double ruptured achille? Anyone heard/read anything about expected recovery time?

We might have some answers tomorrow with the end-of-season interviews...

with the timing of the injury it's actually reasonable.

whether or not he can be counted on to do a full season after double surgery on the same tendon is another matter entirely.

 

[Unsustainable]

I want what you’re smoking.

 

[Chrispy]

with the timing of the injury it's actually reasonable.

whether or not he can be counted on to do a full season after double surgery on the same tendon is another matter entirely.

As I recall, Pacioretty did a surgery with a more rapid return but a higher chance of reinjury last time. This time he did a more traditional surgical procedure with a higher success rate.

Hoping that makes it more likely he has a full recovery this time.

 

[HisIceness]

You missed nothing of worth.

An isles fan actually started a thread on main board where his only content, in the widest definition of the word, was some isles fan's twitter post of a mocking pic of Rod and one sentence's worth of commentary. Not gonna lie, the isles fans crawling out of the woodwork now, after two series of playoffs hockey since their elimination, is actually kind of funny.

One of their twitter bloggers kept coming into the Canes tweets to complain about Rod challenging goals. It was really weird.

Honestly I'm not sure what their problem is because man they were pretty salty after the series. Their team barely made it in to begin with and the guy they traded their best prospect for had a bad playoffs. I know the Stanley Cup Playoffs are unpredictable but they weren't going to go far

But hey if they wanna hate go ahead.

 

[EXTRAS]

2 of those are the goalies we played the last 2 times we went to the ECF. 43 years of history and we represent the opponent for 2 of the top 5 Sv% in the conference finals.

Our finishing is bad, borderline historically bad when put in this context.

I think Bob is extra impressive as the league has become higher scoring right now

Wonder what happens w Jordan Staal?