I do think there is something going on here. It's not the just the Leafs either — it's all Canadian teams. Between 1994 and 2023, there have been 90 Canadian teams in the playoffs. Their winning percentage in the first round is 44.4%, second round is 35%, third round is 35.7%, and finals is 0%.
The first round is well below the 50% average, but not so low to be too suspicious. It's those 2nd, 3rd, and finals stats that jump out to me.
Between 1994 and 2023 there have been 59 series where a Canadian team has played in the 2nd or 3rd round or in the finals. In those series the winning percentage for the Canadian team was 32.2%.
Let that sink in. If you're a fan of a Canadian team that has made it to the 2nd round or later at any point in the last 30 years, the odds of your team winning that series are less than 1 in 3. Those 59 series are a big enough sample size that the results can't be this skewed by chance. Go flip a coin 59 times and see how long it takes you before you get 19 on one side and 40 on the other.
I'm sure that many of the losses over those 59 series resulted in fan bases complaining about reffing, disallowed goals, questionable plays, suspensions that did or didn't happen, and 50/50 calls that didn't go their way. And I bet that each time a bunch of other people told them to stop whining and get over it.
If you're a fan of a Canadian team, go ahead and complain loudly when your team loses in the playoffs. There are 30 years of receipts to show that the league prefers it when the Canadian team loses.
Of course none of these stats excuse the performances of either the Leafs or Oilers in the 2nd round this year. Did both of those teams play bad enough to lose their respective series fair and square? Definitely. But has the ice been tilted against Canadian teams in the playoffs during the Bettman era? Almost certainly.