Official 9th Baseball ATD Discussion Thread Part II

[Winger for Hire]

I think bullpens are weirdly judged in this. We're looking at an all time league and applying today's standard of what a reliever is.

Can you give me an example? I'm not quite getting your meaning.

*A genuine question, not trying to shout you down or anything- I feel like I have to add this disclaimer more and more when communicating online anymore*

 

[bluesfan94]

I'm not going to speak for DHF, but I get where he's coming from. It often seems as if we are assuming bullpens will be utilized similarly to how they are now. That's not really the case nor is it how they were used traditionally. Last year I made a concerted effort to draft old pitchers who threw a ton of complete games with the idea that I would ignore my bullpen where most relievers are drafted and build a stronger bench that could compensate. I was told that that would be unsuccessful (for a variety of reasons, admittedly) and then pivoted accordingly.

But to me, it seems silly to expect, say, Old Hoss Radbourn to need to be relieved when that was rarely the case. I mean, in his career he had 488 CG/502 GS. And that was when he was starting 46 games a year. In this format, he wouldn't be starting as many. I mean, on BBRef, they say that in a 162 game season, he would average 33 GS and 32 CG. Or look at Tim Keefe. 554/594 looking at career CG/GS. It just doesn't seem like you would really need a bullpen. I use those two pitchers because they were on my team last year, but the same applies to a lot of pitchers.

 

[NJDevs26]

By the same token Old Hoss wasn't pitching against lineups with eight All-Stars/legends either. Nor did you often have All Stars available to pinch hit for the pitcher off the bench in a 2-2 bottom of the seventh bases loaded situation either. Guys like Old Hoss and Keefe are also just not going to pitch to that innings total in a four man rotation either, they pitched in one and two man rotations.

 

[bluesfan94]

By the same token Old Hoss wasn't pitching against lineups with eight All-Stars/legends either. Nor did you often have All Stars available to pinch hit for the pitcher off the bench in a 2-2 bottom of the seventh bases loaded situation either.

This was one of the proffered arguments against my philosophy. I just think that we default to having a bullpen because that's what we're all used to seeing. I believe there should be more of a conversation about whether or not it's truly needed assuming you draft the pitchers/manager necessary. Obviously if you draft a modern starting pitcher, you're going to need a bullpen.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

About to pick

 

[Winger for Hire]

This was one of the proffered arguments against my philosophy. I just think that we default to having a bullpen because that's what we're all used to seeing. I believe there should be more of a conversation about whether or not it's truly needed assuming you draft the pitchers/manager necessary. Obviously if you draft a modern starting pitcher, you're going to need a bullpen.

On thing that just occurred to me... going with the ultra shirt pen in favor of a large bench... good luck using that bench effectively, in game, without depleting your bullpen. Everytime you pinch hit for the pitcher's spot, you need another pitcher behind him. Better hope you don't go into extras in back to back nights.

And as I said before, Old Hoss, or even someone more recent- say Warren Spahn- aren't going to have 32, 34, 35, 36 perfect outings. That may have been the case when they got the '50 Pirates on the schedule a dozen times, but even the worst team in this draft is going to trump the '27 Yankees by a body length, at least.

I can certainly see the value of having 6 or 7 bullpen arms and letting them unleash hell over 1 inning, or 2 every once in a while, over a short pen having to pace themselves a little more to conserve energy for longer outings and worrying about a 2nd trip through the lineup.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Wow, Britton... 3 season super peak, interesting.

3 years of 284, 215, and 827 ERA+ out of the pen (~200 innings)

vs

2 years of 92, 84, 83 ERA+ of starts (~250 innings)

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Wow, Britton... 3 season super peak, interesting.

the reliever market isnt pretty. May as well take a high peak player with nasty stuff

 

[bluesfan94]

On thing that just occurred to me... going with the ultra shirt pen in favor of a large bench... good luck using that bench effectively, in game, without depleting your bullpen. Everytime you pinch hit for the pitcher's spot, you need another pitcher behind him. Better hope you don't go into extras in back to back nights.

And as I said before, Old Hoss, or even someone more recent- say Warren Spahn- aren't going to have 32, 34, 35, 36 perfect outings. That may have been the case when they got the '50 Pirates on the schedule a dozen times, but even the worst team in this draft is going to trump the '27 Yankees by a body length, at least.

I can certainly see the value of having 6 or 7 bullpen arms and letting them unleash hell over 1 inning, or 2 every once in a while, over a short pen having to pace themselves a little more to conserve energy for longer outings and worrying about a 2nd trip through the lineup.

Well, because of what I was doing, I was going to have a lot of players that were two way players and in theory I could shift people around. That was kinda what I was hoping for. But then my plans changed. Also, it would allow me to play matchup in game with position players to hurt my opponents.

For example, let's say I had Jim Thome (or any left handed hitter). He comes up in the 7th. Most managers in this format would relieve their starter (or other reliever) with a lefty specialist. That makes sense in this format because most pitchers are more modern. However, because I have a deep bench drafted of pretty decent players (because I can draft my bench earlier seeing as I don't have to draft relievers early), I could pinch hit with, say, Mark McGwire (or any right handed hitter). Now I have a righty hitting against your lefty specialist in a late game situation. You can't replace the lefty until the next hitter. So I have the advantage. You essentially wasted your lefty specialist.

I'm not saying that this team would be the best team. I just think it'd be more interesting to be able to incorporate more strategy in this format.

I do understand the argument that Old Hoss or whomever would be pitching against better competition. But they also would be pitching with more rest. In theory, I could have used Old Hoss to spell Pete Alexander if necessary in game and would have no qualms about Radbourn starting three days later because that's more rest than he normally got to begin with.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Theme of my pitching staff is pretty much power arms. Big believer in it

 

[Winger for Hire]

I can dig the strategy with the pinch hitting and whatnot. Although (and I don't have ANY leg work to back this up, purely a guess), I imagine most of the lefty specialists drafted in an ATD format aren't going to have ugly splits against righties like you would in an everyday MLB game. While you would gain a the lefty/righty advantage, I don't think it's nearly a big enough advantage for the season voting.

I will however give you that in the playoffs, especially shifting your #5 to the pen, your way of thinking, I think, plays a lot better.

 

[bluesfan94]

I can dig the strategy with the pinch hitting and whatnot. Although (and I don't have ANY leg work to back this up, purely a guess), I imagine most of the lefty specialists drafted in an ATD format aren't going to have ugly splits against righties like you would in an everyday MLB game. While you would gain a the lefty/righty advantage, I don't think it's nearly a big enough advantage for the season voting.

I will however give you that in the playoffs, especially shifting your #5 to the pen, your way of thinking, I think, plays a lot better.

That's probably fairly accurate, although, again, with the splits you have to imagine that they'll be more exaggerated in an all time setting. This obviously isn't an exact science and that's where conversations like these come in. I really enjoy debating this stuff.

Yeah, I'm not saying that my strategy was the end all be all and would have somehow revolutionized the draft. In my opinion, though, we should be more open to hearing these arguments instead of defaulting to the modern thinking/strategy. I don't mean this as a criticism. Rather, I think it would be interesting to read more viewpoints.

 

[NJDevs26]

Wow, Britton... 3 season super peak, interesting.

3 years of 284, 215, and 827 ERA+ out of the pen (~200 innings)

vs

2 years of 92, 84, 83 ERA+ of starts (~250 innings)

I might be too harsh but honestly I think your peak has to be at least five years in this format. Any less and it seems a little like gaming the system, and there'd be a lot more modern players drafted the further up you push the line. Maybe I would go along with a four year peak for a bullpen pitcher, maybe. Three's beyond pushing it for me.

 

[ryan callahan]

the reliever market isnt pretty. May as well take a high peak player with nasty stuff

Don't forget to use him in the playoffs

 

[bluesfan94]

One other thing I want to say. While the lineups are magnitudes better than your average MLB team's lineup now, it's important to remember that even the best hitters of all time have OBPs under .500. They'll still be getting out more than half the time at the very top end.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Don't forget to use him in the playoffs

 

[KaseMeOutside]

I might be too harsh but honestly I think your peak has to be at least five years in this format. Any less and it seems a little like gaming the system, and there'd be a lot more modern players drafted the further up you push the line. Maybe I would go along with a four year peak for a bullpen pitcher, maybe. Three's beyond pushing it for me.

But look whats out there, how many relievers left would you honestly prefere? Maybe a few? I also think everyone has different views on the format and nobody is wrong. Just speaking for myself I put more weight into peak. While others prefer consistent longevity

As has been said its difficult to build a bullpen in this format, just went with who i felt was the best talent

 

[NJDevs26]

But look whats out there, how many relievers left would you honestly prefere? Maybe a few? I also think everyone has different views on the format and nobody is wrong. Just speaking for myself I put more weight into peak. While others prefer consistent longevity

As has been said its difficult to build a bullpen in this format, just went with who i felt was the best talent

In terms of power arms there's still a few guys in that vein I'd be fine with as a #4 reliever if that was the way I wanted to go. But I just look on guys that have had 3-4 good years in an ATD akin to playing AA and AAA guys before they're ready for the majors. They may have the talent to have some good days but they're not going to be anywhere near what they could be in a year or two.

And while I mostly agree with you that power (pitching and hitting) is preferable more than not, I also think there needs to be a variety too. In terms of pitching you can have some spitballers, junkballers, contact pitchers that don't strike people out but still be effective and it gives your team a different look IMO. Nobody's going to pass over Greg Maddux for a power guy drafted five rounds later because he isn't a power pitcher.

 

[darko]

I think bullpens are weirdly judged in this. We're looking at an all time league and applying today's standard of what a reliever is.

Rightfully so IMO.

 

[bluesfan94]

Is anyone trying to move up a few spots? I'm willing to trade down.

 

[td_ice]

Not sure how long you ^ plan to wait on a response to your trade inquiry, but I am on deck, I have my pick and write-up all queued up and ready to press REPLY.


Will be up till about 11:30pm. If not my turn by then, will make my pick around 9am-ish.

 

[td_ice]

Well headed to bed soon. If anyone will be up late and wants to take my pick with write-up to copy and paste, let me know. Otherwise I will pick in the morning.

 

[NJDevs26]

I don't know how much later I'll be up but I'll be around 7 in the morning if you want to send the autopick, so you don't get jumped on the clock if it comes to it.

 

[Tecumseh]

Well headed to bed soon. If anyone will be up late and wants to take my pick with write-up to copy and paste, let me know. Otherwise I will pick in the morning.

I'll be up for another three hours at least. I can probably make that pick for you.

 

[td_ice]

I don't know how much later I'll be up but I'll be around 7 in the morning if you want to send the autopick, so you don't get jumped on the clock if it comes to it.

Ok, thanks NJDevs.


Will send over if still not my turn by 11:30.