Official 9th Baseball ATD Discussion Thread Part II

[le_sean]

Imagine A-Rod hadn't left before the 2001 season. That Mariners offence would have been absurd.

 

[Porn*]

Like Edgar, almost took him as my 3B

As a guy coming off my bench for situational hitting... seemed like a no brainer to me.

 

[Winger for Hire]

As a guy coming off my bench for situational hitting... seemed like a no brainer to me.

Yeah, agree with that. That's a hell of a bat coming off the bench with RISP

 

[UL Washington]

Maybe those that don't want to leave lists could check the forum a little more often?

I know...crazy idea.

 

[Porn*]

Lou Brock - Mickey Mantle - Stan Musial


Chipper Jones - Robin Yount - Bill Mazeroski - Eddie Murray

Curt Schilling
Ivan Rodriguez

Roy Halladay
Madison Bumgarner
Andy Pettitte

Mariano Rivera
Jeff Reardon

Edgar Martinez (PH)

Joe McCarthy (MGR)

 

[Porn*]

Maybe those that don't want to leave lists could check the forum a little more often?

I know...crazy idea.

If I didn't happen to be so busy today... I would have... I used up my allotted time. Don't get mad at people for using the rules made up for the league. I'm usually on time with my picks if not extremely early...

 

[Porn*]

almost took kaneda over mccarthy...

interesting selection to say the least. I wasn't sure how folks would rate japanese only players

 

[Winger for Hire]

almost took kaneda over mccarthy...

interesting selection to say the least. I wasn't sure how folks would rate japanese only players

I'm a big pro-Japanese guy. I put the top players in NPB history on the same level as the top Negro leaguers, sometimes higher. Higher sometimes because the record keeping is much more accurate and they were/are playing against professionals only, no barnstorming and semi-pro exhibitions.

 

[bluesfan94]

I'm a big pro-Japanese guy. I put the top players in NPB history on the same level as the top Negro leaguers, sometimes higher. Higher sometimes because the record keeping is much more accurate and they were/are playing against professionals only, no barnstorming and semi-pro exhibitions.

This applies to farmhands, too. Or, for a hockey reference, career AHLers. I don't know how to rank them. I'll expound my confusions/difficulties when more people are drafted

 

[Winger for Hire]

This applies to farmhands, too. Or, for a hockey reference, career AHLers. I don't know how to rank them. I'll expound my confusions/difficulties when more people are drafted

You're more than welcome to make a case for including MiLB stats. But you're clearly trying to submarine the NPB players by comparing them to leagues that are universally agreed to not only be developmental leagues, but are agreed to be below the NPB.

I laid out an argument in the first thread, and I'm not expecting everyone to feel like I do, but I think it's a bit unfair to cite Josh Gibson's 800+ homers (no offence to Gibby) but Kaneda's 4000+ K's are bush league.

 

[td_ice]

You're more than welcome to make a case for including MiLB stats. But you're clearly trying to submarine the NPB players by comparing them to leagues that are universally agreed to not only be developmental leagues, but are agreed to be below the NPB.

I laid out an argument in the first thread, and I'm not expecting everyone to feel like I do, but I think it's a bit unfair to cite Josh Gibson's 800+ homers (no offence to Gibby) but Kaneda's 4000+ K's are bush league.

Agreed.

 

[bluesfan94]

You're more than welcome to make a case for including MiLB stats. But you're clearly trying to submarine the NPB players by comparing them to leagues that are universally agreed to not only be developmental leagues, but are agreed to be below the NPB.

I laid out an argument in the first thread, and I'm not expecting everyone to feel like I do, but I think it's a bit unfair to cite Josh Gibson's 800+ homers (no offence to Gibby) but Kaneda's 4000+ K's are bush league.

There are certainly players in the MiLB who are not there for developmental purposes. Again, I'll flesh out my argument more when other NPB players are drafted. And the problem is that I don't know how NPB in the 1950s/60s compares.

At one point it was universally agreed that the AHL was a developmental league, too, but it was probably the second best league in the world still.

 

[NJDevs26]

The problem I have with equalizing the NPL with the Negro Leagues is there clearly were more guys that would have been in the big leagues from that league than there would have been from the NPL. Even today when it's possible for Japanese players to come over only a small number have, and a fraction of those have been impact players, fewer of them pitchers. While the minute MLB integrated MVP after MVP was won by guys who would have otherwise been stuck in the Negro Leagues.

Plus barnstoming is part of the reason why Negro Leaguers get rated higher, everyone saw them play at one point including other MLB stars. Through no fault of their own nobody here ever saw Japanese players from decades ago play.

 

[NJDevs26]

There are certainly players in the MiLB who are not there for developmental purposes. Again, I'll flesh out my argument more when other NPB players are drafted. And the problem is that I don't know how NPB in the 1950s/60s compares.

At one point it was universally agreed that the AHL was a developmental league, too, but it was probably the second best league in the world still.

Well yeah most MiLB players are inferior, unless maybe you want to bring up the PCL in the 40's and 50's where guys sometimes went and stayed because the money was better.

 

[bluesfan94]

The problem I have with equalizing the NPL with the Negro Leagues is there clearly were more guys that would have been in the big leagues from that league than there would have been from the NPL. Even today when it's possible for Japanese players to come over only a small number have, and a fraction of those have been impact players, fewer of them pitchers. While the minute MLB integrated MVP after MVP was won by guys who would have otherwise been stuck in the Negro Leagues.

Plus barnstoming is part of the reason why Negro Leaguers get rated higher, everyone saw them play at one point including other MLB stars. Through no fault of their own nobody here ever saw Japanese players from decades ago play.

Exactly. It's less that I'm convinced NPB players are bad. It's more that I just don't know and there's a lot of evidence that Negro League players were able to come right in and play at a high level. Look at Satchel Paige. He debuted at 42 and was still solid in the MLB. There's very few Japanese pitchers that have had that sort of success even today.

But using the argument that they're better than Negro League players because they play against professionals and because the records are kept better is moot to me. I'm not seriously arguing NPB is worse than say AA. I'm just saying that using that argument is fallacious because it applies equally to AA. Sell me that the league is better than Negro Leagues

 

[bluesfan94]

Well yeah most MiLB players are inferior, unless maybe you want to bring up the PCL in the 40's and 50's where guys sometimes went and stayed because the money was better.

Which is right before when/right as Kaneda began pitching. Again. I'm not saying I'm anti-NPB. I'm just trying to hear more arguments.

 

[Winger for Hire]

One of the big reasons Japanese players don't come over is because by the time they are able to be posted, they're 26, 27, 28. Not many players want to uproot their entire life and acclimate to a new culture at that point.

One HUGE reason that Japanese players didn't come over in the 60's, 70's, 80's is because Commissioner Frick suspended MLB dealings with the NPB because of dealings the Giants had with NPB players. Frick threatened lawsuits and imposed an unofficial ban on teams dealing with Japanese teams.

So it's not like they weren't coming over because they weren't deemed good enough. They were effectively black balled.

And I don't think you're going to find any Japanese players coming over in the 40's because of WWII and internment camps in the US.

Another argument I'd present is that Japan is 2 time WBC winners. They are good enough to beat loads of MLB talent. That level of play doesn't just appear one generation, it's been cultivated since baseball was introduced (and immediately accepted as part of their culture) in 1872.

Japan/Taiwan have combined for 27 Little League World Series titles. Japan/S Korea/Chinese Taipei have 6 Olympic Baseball medals. They know how to play at a high level at all ages.

Again, I'm not saying every NPB player is on par with MLB players or Negro League players, but the best of the best surely gets some consideration... just like the Negro League players. I don't see every starting first basemen from the Negro Leagues getting picked; only the best.

Here's a quick breakdown of barriers Japanese players faced coming over to America (not including the posting system):

1935 and earlier-No professional Japanese baseball league
1936-1950-Wartime and occupation
1951-1963-Korean War to the Murakami Affair
1964-1994-Murakami Affair and the De Facto Ban
1995-2000-Pitchers Break the De Facto Ban
2001-present-Position players arrive

I won't say that it's exactly the same as to the barriers faced by blacks, but it is a very similar plight (I can't think of a better word). And while blacks had the freedom to sign with teams once Jackie broke the color barrier, the Japanese set-up the posting system to make it harder for players to jump to America.

So my overarching theme, I guess, it that talent isn't why there's not a ton of Japanese players throughout MLB history, politics, war, and a pissed off commissioner is why.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Plus barnstoming is part of the reason why Negro Leaguers get rated higher, everyone saw them play at one point including other MLB stars. Through no fault of their own nobody here ever saw Japanese players from decades ago play.

They get rated higher because they can dominate grocery baggers and high school freshman and a guy from the stands who they needed to fill in at right field?

Remember, there wasn't this vast network of continental scouting back then. Some of these accounts might only know what low level ball looked like. Then come in an all-star team with actual decent players. Of course they're going to look like gods and studs. They go to Bosie, Idaho and all these people know are their local players/teams and stories of Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, etc. They have a team of Gibby, Paige, etc come and beat the **** out of their boys. What conclusion do you think they're going to draw?

I can't stress enough, I'm not trying to attack or discredit the Negro League Players (I drafted Pop high myself), I'm just trying to establish some context.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

For better or worse, we have some frame of reference in the form of 30% of the top 10 picks in this draft having at one point played in the NEL. I really know very little of the Japanese professional leagues and certainly I'm sure some of the best players would have certainly had a significant MLB impact. However, I don't think there are as many hypotheses with the NEL, one need only look at how many players performed at an elite level when given the opportunity as well as those who became solid MLB regulars.

 

[Tecumseh]

I will say this in regard of certain Negro League ballplayers with respect to their placement in the draft, I've never understood why Josh Gibson goes so high (almost always top 10) but players like Oscar Charleston almost falls out of the top 100 despite the many accounts that he was the actual better player.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I do find it unfair that Gibson gets "800 Home Runs" on his HoF plaque.

 

[le_sean]

I wouldn't use WBC results as evidence of how good Japan is. Matsusaka won the MVP twice and was a pretty awful MLB player. Cuba was also runners up one year but we won't ever discuss the Cuban league as a quality one.

That being said, I like your Kaneda pick, I think he's fine as a #4-5. I do question the HOF factor Bill James bestows upon him though.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

I will say this in regard of certain Negro League ballplayers with respect to their placement in the draft, I've never understood why Josh Gibson goes so high (almost always top 10) but players like Oscar Charleston almost falls out of the top 100 despite the many accounts that he was the actual better player.

Gibson has the unique ability to fill a catcher spot with a clean up hitter. That's uber valuable in this format. Maybe Piazza can do that as well but then you have to field (pun intended) questions about his throwing, etc. Gibson had a good arm by most accounts.

With respect to Charleston, I've always pictured him as a Puckett, at his peak, type of player, for a much longer timeframe, that's a very elite player. The fact that he moved to LF and then 1B tells me he was perhaps not the elite defender some make him out to be but certainly above average. He fell hard in this iteration for some reason.

 

[NJDevs26]

I will say this in regard of certain Negro League ballplayers with respect to their placement in the draft, I've never understood why Josh Gibson goes so high (almost always top 10) but players like Oscar Charleston almost falls out of the top 100 despite the many accounts that he was the actual better player.

Being a catcher helps a lot in Gibson's case. It's a thinner position than OF/CF

 

[Winger for Hire]

I wouldn't use WBC results as evidence of how good Japan is. Matsusaka won the MVP twice and was a pretty awful MLB player. Cuba was also runners up one year but we won't ever discuss the Cuban league as a quality one.

That being said, I like your Kaneda pick, I think he's fine as a #4-5. I do question the HOF factor Bill James bestows upon him though.

I get that the WBC isn't a perfect piece of evidence, I was just simply showing that the baseball culture isn't some backwater indy league stuff. Pitchers like DiceK are going to fare very well in a short tourny like that because no one has seen him before.

And to be clear, Bill James didn't comment on Kaneda's HoF chances, he just made a scale to rate player's HoF chances were a score of 50 represents a likely HoFer. Kaneda's semi-conservative MLE (Major League Equivalent- which a lot of people use for Negro Leaguers) of his stats come out to around a 76.