Official 2024-25 Utah HC Season Discussion.

[Jakey53]

I said it last summer when assets were spent on Sergashev and I'll say it again, the team has a real Owner and a fanbase to excite so imo there is no way they stand pat and wait years for assets to develop. I expect more draft picks and possible prospects to be spent to get some real help right now. I think it's the logical move.

Who said anything about waiting years? BA has shown to be patient in the past and I think that will continue. I guess it will depend who is available and at what cost. I think BA would be a dumb fool to make a Hall type trade at this time.

Yeah. They can only fill so much of the roster with home-grown talent. They'll have to bring in help to strengthen the roster via trade or FA anyways at some point as the final stage of the rebuild. So long as they're not wasting assets on a rental or a short term fix I'm all for it.

I just won't be surprised if this TDL ends up being uneventful for us. Especially with all those players coming off of IR. I'm hoping for another interesting off-season so either way.

Opportunities to trade for young, in their prime defenseman like Sergachev don't happen often. If something like that comes up I'm sure BA will take a look whether it's pre TDL or during the off-season though. So anything is possible.

That's how I see it.

 

[Jamieh]

Who said anything about waiting years? BA has shown to be patient in the past and I think that will continue. I guess it will depend who is available and at what cost. I think BA would be a dumb fool to make a Hall type trade at this time.


That's how I see it.

And who exactly suggested a Hall type trade?

 

[AZviaNJ]

If we miss the playoffs by 2 points, we would have roughly 94 points, that is a 16 point improvement, which is success based on last year. Its still year 5 for BA, missing the playoffs 5 years in a row couldn't have been the goal in BAs master plan. 94 is close to meeting expectations, still not in the playoffs, its not exceeding the 5th year expectation for any GM. The team has never over achieved under Bear/BA, in fact they have been under the Vegas odds in points per year mostly.

At some point, they will both be held accountable, and which year do they run out of, "we are still young, Chayka left a mess, we are broke" ? At some point they will turn from reasons to excuses. If we make the playoffs, Smith likely sticks with both of them. If we don't, Smith needs to take a hard look at both of them. I have said many times that i think the team is misconstructed, built wingers first, and BA took too long to start the rebuild, I hope I am wrong and we make the playoffs this year, and go further in them next year.

Both before and after the move they prioritized draft picks and invested in development staff. The rebuild is not yet complete. Supplementing with vets like Sergy is great…but shouldn’t be the priority.

 

[cobra427]

Do you guys think your team is gonna buy?

Nothing meaningful, maybe a fill in vet for a second or a third. BA takes forever to make any moves involving real assets, first/OEL/Chych, etc.... BA also doesn't seem to have any pressure on him to make the playoffs this year, so no need to give up future assets for meaningful help this year. BAs goal is playing in meaningful games, not making the playoffs or having meaningful improvements through trades.

Both before and after the move they prioritized draft picks and invested in development staff. The rebuild is not yet complete. Supplementing with vets like Sergy is great…but shouldn’t be the priority.

I agree its not completed, I can tell by our record, the question is who will the GM and coach be once it is completed.

 

[AZviaNJ]

Nothing meaningful, maybe a fill in vet for a second or a third. BA takes forever to make any moves involving real assets, first/OEL/Chych, etc.... BA also doesn't seem to have any pressure on him to make the playoffs this year, so no need to give up future assets for meaningful help this year. BAs goal is playing in meaningful games, not making the playoffs or having meaningful improvements through trades.


I agree its not completed, I can tell by our record, the question is who will the GM and coach be once it is completed.

Probably neither.

 

[TheLegend]

Marino getting close…..

 

[TheLegend]

More injury updates..

 

[rt]

Boys. Dylan Guenther has one of our Clean Hits Dylan Guenther shirts. Haha.

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

BA takes forever to make any moves involving real assets, first/OEL/Chych, etc....

So frustrating that he took so long to trade OEL and all we got back as the main piece was Dylan Guenther. Should've fired him right away after that. Priceless time wasted we'll never get back. Such a bad GM!!

 

[cobra427]

So frustrating that he took so long to trade OEL and all we got back as the main piece was Dylan Guenther. Should've fired him right away after that. Priceless time wasted we'll never get back. Such a bad GM!!

BA could have gotten more for OEL had he traded him a year earlier, his value didn't go up. I am glad Gunts looks so good, we have plenty of good wingers, the easiest position to play and get good players. 1D not so much. maybe we get the same pick a year earlier, same with Chych, the earlier you get the picks, the sooner the rebuild takes hold.

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

Delete

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

BA could have gotten more for OEL had he traded him a year earlier, his value didn't go up.

maybe we get the same pick a year earlier

Don't forget that OEL had a NTC and would only accept a trade to either VAN or BOS. Best I can tell:

BOS highest 2020 draft pick was 1st round, 27th OA (ended up trading it to ANA.)

VAN highest 2020 pick was 1st round, 20th OA (ended up trading it to TBL.)

The two teams that OEL would allow a trade to didn't have as much to offer in 2020. Waiting as long as BA did looks like it was out of necessity to me. Unless he was going to make a trade for quantity over quality just for the sake of time. And I'd take Guenther over a bunch of lesser parts any day.

Edit: And if I recall correctly it didn't seem like BOS was all that interested in trading for OEL. So that means that BA really only had Jim Benning to deal with. The good news is Benning was an idiot because I don't think any other GM in the NHL makes that trade. Especially without any competition from other teams to get the player.

 

[cobra427]

Don't forget that OEL had a NTC and would only accept a trade to either VAN or BOS. Best I can tell:

BOS highest 2020 draft pick was 1st round, 27th OA (ended up trading it to ANA.)

VAN highest 2020 pick was 1st round, 20th OA (ended up trading it to TBL.)

The two teams that OEL would allow a trade to didn't have as much to offer in 2020. Waiting as long as BA did looks like it was out of necessity to me. Unless he was going to make a trade for quantity over quality just for the sake of time. And I'd take Guenther over a bunch of lesser parts any day.

Edit: And if I recall correctly it didn't seem like BOS was all that interested in trading for OEL. So that means that BA really only had Jim Benning to deal with. The good news is Benning was an idiot because I don't think any other GM in the NHL makes that trade. Especially without any competition from other teams to get the player.

That might all be true or maybe not, we don't know the inter workings of any trade really. It also took BA 18 months to trade Chych. Getting any young players a year earlier speeds up development time. I agree that rebuilds take years, but they don't all work, look at Buffalo and Detroit.

I am not against BA or Bear, I am for both of them, I hope this is the year we make the playoffs. I also think its fair to evaluate BA after 5 years at the helm, and Bear after 4 years, this summer. That is a fair amount of time in this business, they are both long tenured now as GMs and coaches go, neither is on 8 years deals for a reason, contracts are shorter becuse owners want to see "meaningful" progress. Seems like a long time to not make the playoffs if we miss this year. How much longer do they get the bogie because of Chayka/Coyotes mess?

I hope Veg keeps playing this well, he could carry us into the playoffs and getting back Durzi/marino should help. I am pulling for the team to pull it off!

 

[rt]

@cobra427 -
OEL would only accept a trade by Oct 8th (free agency start date due COVID season). And only to two teams; BOS or VAN. BA was hired Sept 17th. He has three weeks as a brand new GM to figure out a trade where he had zero leverage. There were only two bidders and Steve Sullivan had begun the negotiations. So he had to undo that also. There was no time to do a deal. And OEL wouldn’t do a deal during the season. So he had to wait until the next offseason.

BA did an incredible job getting a top ten pick for this player. Such a good job that the GM was eventually fired and the OEL was bought out.

Chychrun was injured right before the 2022 deadline and couldn’t be traded as a result. That’s why he was held out for so long before the 2023 deadline. So he couldn’t get injured again. There was no trading him sooner. He kept getting injured.

Getting a 12th overall pick and two 2nds was an incredible haul for this mess of a player - again a the GM was fired and the player later moved out for peanuts.

Armstrong’s performance in the OEL and Chychrun trades was masterful.

 

[Jakey53]

BA could have gotten more for OEL had he traded him a year earlier, his value didn't go up. I am glad Gunts looks so good, we have plenty of good wingers, the easiest position to play and get good players. 1D not so much. maybe we get the same pick a year earlier, same with Chych, the earlier you get the picks, the sooner the rebuild takes hold.

Speculation on your part. The OEL trade turned out great for Utah, and I don't care if Gunner is a winger or not because a winger of his caliber don't grow on trees, and not many teams has a winger like Gunner. As far as Chych goes, that remains to be seen, but other GM's knew Chych wanted a trade and that may have hurt getting a trade done earlier, or the return.

 

[Jakey53]

@cobra427 -
OEL would only accept a trade by Oct 8th (free agency start date due COVID season). And only to two teams; BOS or VAN. BA was hired Sept 17th. He has three weeks as a brand new GM to figure out a trade where he had zero leverage. There were only two bidders and Steve Sullivan had begun the negotiations. So he had to undo that also. There was no time to do a deal. And OEL wouldn’t do a deal during the season. So he had to wait until the next offseason.

BA did an incredible job getting a top ten pick for this player. Such a good job that the GM was eventually fired and the OEL was bought out.

Chychrun was injured right before the 2022 deadline and couldn’t be traded as a result. That’s why he was held out for so long before the 2023 deadline. So he couldn’t get injured again. There was no trading him sooner. He kept getting injured.

Getting a 12th overall pick and two 2nds was an incredible haul for this mess of a player - again a the GM was fired and the player later moved out for peanuts.

Armstrong’s performance in the OEL and Chychrun trades was masterful.

How can you call Chych a mess of a player? A player getting traded for peanuts, as you say, has nothing to do with Chych's play, rather a GM getting fleeced in a trade. Chych played good for Ottawa and is playing very well for the Capitals. The Chych trade, at this time, is far from being called masterful. As far as the OEL trade goes, I think it has ended up well for all players involved, but the Canucks as an organization took a hit.

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

How can you call Chych a mess of a player?

Over the 8 years spanning his time with Arizona Chychrun missed almost 1/3 of the games due to injury. We could never rely on him being on the ice when we needed him. That's a mess. Guy looked like Superman but was as fragile as Mr. Glass.

It might not have been related to injury, but OTT gave up a lot for a player they only kept for 94 games.

but the Canucks as an organization took a hit.

A big hit. They're paying OEL over $19M to play somewhere else after he played only 133 games for them.

 

[cobra427]

@cobra427 -
OEL would only accept a trade by Oct 8th (free agency start date due COVID season). And only to two teams; BOS or VAN. BA was hired Sept 17th. He has three weeks as a brand new GM to figure out a trade where he had zero leverage. There were only two bidders and Steve Sullivan had begun the negotiations. So he had to undo that also. There was no time to do a deal. And OEL wouldn’t do a deal during the season. So he had to wait until the next offseason.

BA did an incredible job getting a top ten pick for this player. Such a good job that the GM was eventually fired and the OEL was bought out.

Chychrun was injured right before the 2022 deadline and couldn’t be traded as a result. That’s why he was held out for so long before the 2023 deadline. So he couldn’t get injured again. There was no trading him sooner. He kept getting injured.

Getting a 12th overall pick and two 2nds was an incredible haul for this mess of a player - again a the GM was fired and the player later moved out for peanuts.

Armstrong’s performance in the OEL and Chychrun trades was masterful.

First of all, Chych was a keeper, BA said that, until he pissed him off by trading Garland/DVO, and other young players. Chych then realized we were going into super tank mode, meaning much longer rebuild then BA implied, and then wanted out. BA mislead him in what he was going to do, likely told him we were building around young players we have, then traded a few of them. He also hung onto OEL. If BA would have traded OEL right away, and kept DVO, Chych might still be here, if BA did that, we would have been 18 months ahead of where we are in a rebuild. We need top 4Ds and top 3Cs.

The returns were ok for both players, nothing masterful. You and others forget the time value of a trade. Getting decent picks for Chych, 18-24 months after you could have received close to or the same return, pushes the rebuild period out further. Its not like either player went up in value 2 years later, not because of their play anyway.

It would be like holding out to try and get top dollar for a antique car and having it for sale for 2 years, then you get your 50K, but had offers at 45K 2 years earlier. If you reinvested the 45k, you would have a new asset worth more then 50 k in value 2 years later. In business, the time value of an asset and a cash sensitivity analysis usually means there is good reason to take a little less now for an asset then waiting to get the higher price. That is what I am saying and is why this rebuild is stringing out.

Speculation on your part. The OEL trade turned out great for Utah, and I don't care if Gunner is a winger or not because a winger of his caliber don't grow on trees, and not many teams has a winger like Gunner. As far as Chych goes, that remains to be seen, but other GM's knew Chych wanted a trade and that may have hurt getting a trade done earlier, or the return.

They got market value for both players, I am not arguing that they were bad returns. Time value is where BA lost.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Hey everyone, just wanting to inquire and ask about Connor Ingram? Is there any word about when he will return, and how would you expect the rest of his season to look like?

He seem to be incredibly solid last year.

 

[TheLegend]

Hey everyone, just wanting to inquire and ask about Connor Ingram? Is there any word about when he will return, and how would you expect the rest of his season to look like?

He seem to be incredibly solid last year.

Not going on four game road trip so it’s still going to be a while.

 

[TheLegend]

 

[rt]

First of all, Chych was a keeper, BA said that, until he pissed him off by trading Garland/DVO, and other young players. Chych then realized we were going into super tank mode, meaning much longer rebuild then BA implied, and then wanted out. BA mislead him in what he was going to do, likely told him we were building around young players we have, then traded a few of them. He also hung onto OEL. If BA would have traded OEL right away, and kept DVO, Chych might still be here,

Then I’m EXTREMELY grateful BA didn’t do any of that.

if BA did that, we would have been 18 months ahead of where we are in a rebuild. We need top 4Ds and top 3Cs.

If BA did that we’d be way behind. He put on an absolute masterclass. Just nailed it.

The returns were ok for both players, nothing masterful.

Guenther alone is worth more than OEL, Chychrun, and Dvorak combined and it’s not even close.

You and others forget the time value of a trade.

I think you’re the one who is misremembering the context of the time. I honestly could not disagree with you more. On every single point. I’m 100% opposite.

Getting decent picks for Chych, 18-24 months after you could have received close to or the same return, pushes the rebuild period out further

As I mentioned before (maybe you skipped over that part?) Chychrun was injured right before the deadline. Which is why he had to be bubble wrapped ahead of the next deadline.

Its not like either player went up in value 2 years later, not because of their play anyway.

It would be like holding out to try and get top dollar for a antique car and having it for sale for 2 years, then you get your 50K, but had offers at 45K 2 years earlier. If you reinvested the 45k, you would have a new asset worth more then 50 k in value 2 years later. In business, the time value of an asset and a cash sensitivity analysis usually means there is good reason to take a little less now for an asset then waiting to get the higher price. That is what I am saying and is why this rebuild is stringing out.

Sorry but I don’t think any of this is accurate or even relevant, honestly. It doesn’t make sense to me or align with the reality of the situation.

They got market value for both players, I am not arguing that they were bad returns. Time value is where BA lost.

OEL was bought out and Chychrun was traded for nothing. Both GMs were fired.

It’s fairly easy to see BA mopped the floor with those teams. He absolutely killed it.

 

[PainForShane]

First of all, Chych was a keeper, BA said that, until he pissed him off by trading Garland/DVO, and other young players. Chych then realized we were going into super tank mode, meaning much longer rebuild then BA implied, and then wanted out. BA mislead him in what he was going to do, likely told him we were building around young players we have, then traded a few of them. He also hung onto OEL. If BA would have traded OEL right away, and kept DVO, Chych might still be here, if BA did that, we would have been 18 months ahead of where we are in a rebuild. We need top 4Ds and top 3Cs.

The returns were ok for both players, nothing masterful. You and others forget the time value of a trade. Getting decent picks for Chych, 18-24 months after you could have received close to or the same return, pushes the rebuild period out further. Its not like either player went up in value 2 years later, not because of their play anyway.

It would be like holding out to try and get top dollar for a antique car and having it for sale for 2 years, then you get your 50K, but had offers at 45K 2 years earlier. If you reinvested the 45k, you would have a new asset worth more then 50 k in value 2 years later. In business, the time value of an asset and a cash sensitivity analysis usually means there is good reason to take a little less now for an asset then waiting to get the higher price. That is what I am saying and is why this rebuild is stringing out.


They got market value for both players, I am not arguing that they were bad returns. Time value is where BA lost.

It's hard to disagree with your time value of money argument as it pertains to player development / timing (thx for articulating it), but it really depends on what Chychrun would've returned during that year or so we were trying to trade him. If I remember right (not sure), Columbus would've traded for him, but when he was like, 'hey I'm not going to re-sign with CBJ' they were out. I don't remember any other deals being particularly close but maybe mis-remembering.

To continue with your example (which definitely does apply to the point you made), what if Chychrun's initial offers were 30K instead of 45k? I'm not saying they were, I'm just saying we don't know what they were.

***

From my point of view, BA hit an absolute home run with the OEL trade, maybe the best trade of the last decade, I can't think of a more lopsided one in recent memory (Brassard / Zibanejad was about the same tier, that was back in 2016). Chychrun went for a little less than what I was hoping for (was hoping for a late top-10 draft pick, we got 12th), and imo we were honestly lucky to get even that -- Ottawa was 2 points out of a playoff spot at the deadline (tied with FLA with fewer GP), they didn't make a move for a backup goalie (Quick was very available) and then promptly shit the bed. Meanwhile, Florida got hot and then made the SCF, not saying Ottawa would've made the SCF but they could've and probably should've made playoffs that year.

Anyway unless we know the earlier offers for Chych, we can't really say. I suspect (but don't know for certain) the market might not have been there because the guy was getting injured all the time. Dorion got desperate and made a fair offer, Benning was desperate and made an absolutely stupid offer, to continue with finance analogies BA tried to time the market and imo mostly succeeded, he probably did better than he would've had he tried to dollar cost average. Especially with OEL (not sure Chychrun).

****

More importantly, being a couple years 'behind' in the rebuild to me doesn't matter as much because it gives Guenther, Cooley, Simashev, But etc more time to develop. I do think we can probably use another top 6 center and top 4 D, but if Simashev hits, our D will be built around Serg, Simashev and a more developed / better verion of Lam, not to mention Marino and Durzi. And / or maybe Kesselring and / or Koly rounding out that bottom pair. That's not too bad. Especially if Sima ends up a true #1 which we won't know anyway for at least a few years, imo if Simashev becomes a Norris contender that's a cup contending D-corps. So waiting a few more years is in some sense necessary I think

 

[cobra427]

Then I’m EXTREMELY grateful BA didn’t do any of that.

If BA did that we’d be way behind. He put on an absolute masterclass. Just nailed it.

Guenther alone is worth more than OEL, Chychrun, and Dvorak combined and it’s not even close.


I think you’re the one who is misremembering the context of the time. I honestly could not disagree with you more. On every single point. I’m 100% opposite.

As I mentioned before (maybe you skipped over that part?) Chychrun was injured right before the deadline. Which is why he had to be bubble wrapped ahead of the next deadline.


Sorry but I don’t think any of this is accurate or even relevant, honestly. It doesn’t make sense to me or align with the reality of the situation.


OEL was bought out and Chychrun was traded for nothing. Both GMs were fired.

It’s fairly easy to see BA mopped the floor with those teams. He absolutely killed it.

In 2019-2020, the Coyotes had 74 points in 70 games, that is the team BA took over. There is nothing masterful about getting to 77 points in 82 games last year, 4 years later. We will see where we get to this year, if we get to 87 points we will equal the performance the year before BA took over, you might think that is great, I don't. You act like BA is a genius, the record doesn't reflect that and I would bet money the bogie wasn't 77 points in year 4 and 5 years in a row missing the playoffs when he laid out his plan. We have been under the Vegas betting points every year since BA took over.

I think he got a fair return for the assets, the market is the market, GMs get fired all the time. Its the time it took to make moves, it pushed the rebuild out too long and if they miss the playoffs this year it might cost BA his job.

 

[Jakey53]

Over the 8 years spanning his time with Arizona Chychrun missed almost 1/3 of the games due to injury. We could never rely on him being on the ice when we needed him. That's a mess. Guy looked like Superman but was as fragile as Mr. Glass.

It might not have been related to injury, but OTT gave up a lot for a player they only kept for 94 games.



A big hit. They're paying OEL over $19M to play somewhere else after he played only 133 games for them.

Ottawa traded Chych because of how their team was constructed and time left on his contract. Since Chych left the Coyotes he has been more or less injury free and is playing damn good hockey. I would love to have that mess back.