Official 2023 NHL Draft Thread

[Beef Invictus]

Late to this party, but if Michkov, Smith, and Benson are all gone before 7 I would 100% trade back too.

Correctness

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think of it more like you described, each player has a distribution of potential outcomes.
(using "lines" as a proxy for value, you could just use WAR or something like that instead).

The best players peak probably at say a second line level, with a decent probability of a 1st line outcome but also a 3rd/4th line outcome and even below replacement.

As you move down the draft, the distribution shifts down, but varies for each players, some may have a peak at 3rd or 4th line with a small tail, some may have dual peaks, 2nd/4th line with a substantial below replacement tail, and so on.

Past #100 or so, most players have a very thin tail toward the best outcomes, and a peak in the 3rd/4th line area that shifts down as you get deeper into the draft. A few have dual peaks, maybe a small 2nd line outcome paired with a much bigger 4th line/sub replacement value peak.

Now once you get to below replacement level there's no "negative" value, you hit or you don't.

When the chance to get a top two line outcome becomes close to zero, then it makes sense to focus on expected value over "best outcomes."
That is, you may rather have a top 4th line guy with significant probability than a so-so 3rd line guy with a much lower probability, because in both cases they're building depth and saving money, but if you're a good team, you're looking to replace them down the road. And of course you might start drafting with specific outcomes in mind, are they suitable for the PK, an energy line, etc. that would provide more value at the bottom of the roster.

If you're drafting/acquiring a PK or "energy" specialist for your "energy" line then your team is failing and will never win because you're thinking like it's pre-Cap hockey. That approach is built-in inefficiency that cannot be overcome through the rest of the roster.

 

[deadhead]

That’s all fair, but I think you and I may be more willing to churn those 4th liners than most NHL teams are. And if you don’t have roster spots, you’re extracting no value from those picks at all. Essentially, every 4th liner you develop is a slight limiter on all of your other fringe Middle 6 types. It’s incredibly difficult to pull all the right levers in real time.

However, role matters at the bottom of the roster b/c of opportunity costs.
4th liners who PK have extra value because they relieve a top 6 forward of the need to spend 1-2 minutes a night in a non-offensive role. And so on.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Building for role limits roster utility and efficiency and puts your team behind the ball immediately. There's a reason the best team for years now have almost completely avoided doing so, and whenever they haven't it's been an error.

Doing so should not have an ounce of influence on the Flyers' approach to drafting.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Who does @Stizzle like?

He mailed it in like @BigToe after ranking 25 players.

 

[PK16]

We've done this enough to know when guys smack you in the face. Benson smacks me in the face. He's one of those guys where if you see 1-2 games, you've seen 50. It's the same every time. Toe and I talked about stopping watching him because we just couldn't learn any more. But he's kind of like crack, I can't stop. Which is why the Flyers will take a middle 6/2nd pair upside player who looks like a MAN and call it a day. That he exists at the confluence of HockeyGuy-isms AND elite playmaking makes it all the more mind-boggling.

Even the idea he's an "average" skater seems like a gross oversimplification, or the ultimate form over function argument. His edge work is plus with real burst, he sees lanes and angles others do not, he's adept moving with guys on his hip, his problem solving as a puck transporter is nearly flawless.



I didn't care for him that much, so there's that.

I agree Benson is a really fun player to watch. I love this kid’s game. If Michkov is not there and Benson is, that is who they should take at #7.

 

[Unger9]

Mackenzie: [Leonard] was ranked as high as No. 6 in our scouting survey and no lower than No. 9

That's a pretty tight range. These lists have been pretty good. His list had Caufield 9th, which in a redraft ATM looks pretty close

 

[Rebels57]

I agree Benson is a really fun player to watch. I love this kid’s game. If Michkov is not there and Benson is, that is who they should take at #7.

Should be but they'll take Leonard instead.

 

[Sombastate]

Should be but they'll take Leonard instead.

It's so frustrating. I'm sure this will turn out to be a situation where "Flyers got their guy" but the guy they didn't get turns out to be lightyears better

 

[Strawberry Fields]

Challenged myself to do the draft simulator, using my preferred list, picking only the highest ranked player available. Some turned out much better than others, goes without saying.

Least random:

"Normal":

Most random (the D draft :/ ):

 

[Petr Svoboda Mullet]

Can someone kindly explain why that buffoon Bettman decided to not have the draft today, on a weekend?

 

[Don Nachbaur 26]

Can someone kindly explain why that buffoon Bettman decided to not have the draft today, on a weekend?

Hotel prices cheaper on a Wednesday than the weekend?? (I'm reaching)

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Correctness

They have a “clear” top 8, so unlikely.

 

[Danko]

got to assume this russian civil war is gonna cause some more pause to draft michkov from teams

 

[TheMrPace]

I am believing that he is a brother of Cutter? Hockey DB says he is from AZ and Sean Gauthier's (Cutter's Dad) Wikipedia page says he lives in AZ with his wife and sons. If so, guaranteed he is a Flyer by the end of next week.

No relation to Cutter. He's Denis Gauthier's son.

Brière and Denis Gauthier played 2 years together in Drummondville. Denis is still with the Voltigeurs and Ethan was traded there last week. I hope Danny will not make his old friend a favor in drafting his son with the 22nd pick, it will be to suspicious. If they make another trade for a late first or early second to take Ethan, that might be ok but not with the 22nd. Better players will be available.

 

[Tarpongg]

Catching up on podcasts this morning:

Probably discussed already, Fwiw (not much)… The Athletic mock draft podcast yesterday had Leonard going 5 and Reinbacher at 6, leaving a choice between Michkov and Dvorsky, where they thought Briere has the long rebuild runway to take Michkov. Bonk at 22.

The Myrtman had Briere on, and his first “question” was kind of a statement hyping Leonard’s Tkachuk qualities. Briere thought he could be gone before 7. Said they love 7/8 players and will get a good one.

The shills love Leonard- born to be a Flyer.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Can someone kindly explain why that buffoon Bettman decided to not have the draft today, on a weekend?

Because he's a useless, stupid, stunted c***.

 

[Adam Warlock]

Seems Dvorsky is gaining steam going into the draft. Makes me wonder if a team over thinks it and prefers him over Smith.

If both Smith and Michkov are there for us at 7...whats the play? Thatd be an ideal trade back to 8 situation.

 

[Curufinwe]

Can someone kindly explain why that buffoon Bettman decided to not have the draft today, on a weekend?

Wednesday night ratings are higher than Friday night ratings. No one but hardcore hockey nerds cares about rounds 2-7.

 

[CutOnDime97]

 

[Rebels57]

I like Benson so much I would be fine taking him at 7 over Michkov. I think the latter is the better prospect but with the uncertainty I would be perfectly content with Benson there. I would, however, try to squeeze an asset out of Washington to swap picks with them in this scenario.

 

[Curufinwe]

If we can’t take a guy like Benson with Briere as GM, we never will.

 

[renberg]

Granted that these are game clips but Benson sure seems able to keep up with the play. No issues with speed.

 

[Sombastate]

Seems Dvorsky is gaining steam going into the draft. Makes me wonder if a team over thinks it and prefers him over Smith.

If both Smith and Michkov are there for us at 7...whats the play? Thatd be an ideal trade back to 8 situation.

This would not be over thinking. This would merely be “thinking.”

I will take Deadhead to a steak dinner and let him tell me how good Fletcher is while I pleasantly fill his glass of wine with a smile on my face if Smith ends up being better

Signed,
Will Smith hater

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I don’t have a problem with Benson as much as I think a number of fans overlook his potential limitations.

I’d take Moore over him. I’d take Simashev over him.

But I wouldn’t be upset if the Flyers got Benson. But I kind of doubt he’ll be better than Konecny.