Official 2023 NHL Draft Thread

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Gotta admit, it'd be pretty ironic to trade a former #7 overall defenseman just to effectively draft his replacement and shoehorn him into the same role he may not be able to live up to.

And another one who is already basically the finished article of what he can ultimately be when we get him.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

We've done this enough to know when guys smack you in the face. Benson smacks me in the face. He's one of those guys where if you see 1-2 games, you've seen 50. It's the same every time. Toe and I talked about stopping watching him because we just couldn't learn any more. But he's kind of like crack, I can't stop. Which is why the Flyers will take a middle 6/2nd pair upside player who looks like a MAN and call it a day. That he exists at the confluence of HockeyGuy-isms AND elite playmaking makes it all the more mind-boggling.

Even the idea he's an "average" skater seems like a gross oversimplification, or the ultimate form over function argument. His edge work is plus with real burst, he sees lanes and angles others do not, he's adept moving with guys on his hip, his problem solving as a puck transporter is nearly flawless.

For me, it's the scalability. This is a pile of attributes that don't have inherent ceilings. They play at ES. They play on the PP. They play at every level of hockey.

This is a nuanced playmaker. It's not just open ice. He uses feints to manipulate defenders in tight spaces. Even beyond his own passing, he anticipates receiving them so well. Time and time again, you could see him widening his base and leveraging defenders before the pass was anywhere near him. Always a move ahead. Always.

One little thing I always love when a player inherently does is be comfortable and aware enough to make the fine adjustments in pace to allow trailers to enter the play. Benson not only does that, he understands the extra value he can create by giving those trailers the extra second to get to the middle of the ice. And he has the processing power necessary to weaponize that time to set up defenders.

I get that he's not a picture perfect skater, but at its most base level, why does he get to so many loose pucks if there isn't function under the hood? He's such a good forecheker too. As F2, he did a great job of strangling momentum by angling rushers off into the wall.

And then you have the elephant in the room. He's a transformative passer. How many players in any draft can you say you think have a chance to be the best player on a good PP1? Maybe 3?

 

[BigToe]

@FLYguy3911 did you know about this guy? First time seeing him.

 

[Beef Invictus]

We've done this enough to know when guys smack you in the face. Benson smacks me in the face. He's one of those guys where if you see 1-2 games, you've seen 50. It's the same every time. Toe and I talked about stopping watching him because we just couldn't learn any more. But he's kind of like crack, I can't stop. Which is why the Flyers will take a middle 6/2nd pair upside player who looks like a MAN and call it a day. That he exists at the confluence of HockeyGuy-isms AND elite playmaking makes it all the more mind-boggling.

Even the idea he's an "average" skater seems like a gross oversimplification, or the ultimate form over function argument. His edge work is plus with real burst, he sees lanes and angles others do not, he's adept moving with guys on his hip, his problem solving as a puck transporter is nearly flawless.



I didn't care for him that much, so there's that.

Well, you've described Benson as precisely the kind of player the Flyers hate most.

 

[Magua]

@FLYguy3911 did you know about this guy? First time seeing him.

Why didn't he get drafted last year? He's not even roadkill!

 

[Beef Invictus]

All these dmen watching guys like Karlsson, Ghost, Makar. Doing stuff. Contributing like they are fowards. It's impure hockey. Revolting. Bad culture.

What we really need is that Niskanen replacement.

 

[ajgoal]

Imagine you simulated the careers of Benson and Leonard 100 times and then ranked each outcome for each player by whatever criteria you wanted.

For my definition of a star, let's say 5 out of those 100 meet the threshold. Since we've ranked them, that means the 95th+ Percentile outcomes are stars.

I think Benson gets a star outcome significantly more than that. Let's just say 20 times out of 100 to make the math easy. That means 80th+ Percentile outcomes are stars.

Now do the opposite with their bust outcomes. We'll keep the numbers the same for clarity. Benson is a bust 20% of the time. Leonard busts 5%.

To me, the extra 15% of the time you get a star outcome with Benson dwarfs the value of the rainbow of lower end outcomes where Leonard is your 6th or 7th best Winger and Benson was shipped off for Future Considerations.

Essentially, every click up an ideal lineup is significantly harder to find. These players almost always come with more risk on the low end unless you're picking at the very tops of drafts.

Danke. Very helpful.

 

[Magua]

Who does @Stizzle like?

 

[renberg]

It’s not unreasonable to think that Benson might pop another inch in height before he’s done growing. It often happens that guys get another small growth spurt around eighteen years of age. Five ten or eleven is short but not a midget. Timonen was five ten. If Benson can fill out to #180 without losing any quickness, he’ll be physically fine.

 

[deadhead]

Imagine you simulated the careers of Benson and Leonard 100 times and then ranked each outcome for each player by whatever criteria you wanted.

For my definition of a star, let's say 5 out of those 100 meet the threshold. Since we've ranked them, that means the 95th+ Percentile outcomes are stars.

I think Benson gets a star outcome significantly more than that. Let's just say 20 times out of 100 to make the math easy. That means 80th+ Percentile outcomes are stars.

Now do the opposite with their bust outcomes. We'll keep the numbers the same for clarity. Benson is a bust 20% of the time. Leonard busts 5%.

To me, the extra 15% of the time you get a star outcome with Benson dwarfs the value of the rainbow of lower end outcomes where Leonard is your 6th or 7th best Winger and Benson was shipped off for Future Considerations.

Essentially, every click up an ideal lineup is significantly harder to find. These players almost always come with more risk on the low end unless you're picking at the very tops of drafts.

However, later in the draft, few have that "star" outcome at all, most with a probability < 1%.
At that point, you might prefer a bottom six outcome at 25% and build depth. Land a Lindblom or Cates.
Now if someone falls with a 2-3% "star" outcome, then you might gamble with a later round pick.

It's basic financial theory, you're optimizing a portfolio of picks with different distributions (probability of different outcomes), with the stipulation that all outcomes less than above replacement are valued at zero. You don't want to maximize the expected value of individual picks, but that of the portfolio as a whole (and if rebuilding, over multiple drafts).

 

[freakydallas13]

I'm all aboard Team Trade Back, and have been getting more sure of it by the day.

Late to this party, but if Michkov, Smith, and Benson are all gone before 7 I would 100% trade back too.

 

[FLYguy3911]

@FLYguy3911 did you know about this guy? First time seeing him.

Cmon Toeseph. He was on THE LIST last year. He just needed to get out of that Niagara hell hole where offense is non-existent. I usually don't rank overagers but he's my top one. Would probably think about him in the late 3rd-ish. Played some forward this year, that's how skilled he is. Great at the WJCs. Skating is a bit clunky, but he has pretty much everything else. Jersey kid too technically.

 

[Chinatown88]

7 Zach Benson
22 Andrew Cristall
87 Luca Cagnoni
95 Caden Price
103 Andrew Strathmann
129 Matthew Mania
135 Brandon Svoboda
167 Jake Fisher
173 Francesco Dell’Elce
199 Gavyn Thoreson

The first two picks and I'm gorging on 6 Jamaican beef patties and two glasses of Fairlife chocolate milk. I hope it happens just to see how my stomach will handle all that food and milk.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

However, later in the draft, few have that "star" outcome at all, most with a probability < 1%.
At that point, you might prefer a bottom six outcome at 25% and build depth. Land a Lindblom or Cates.
Now if someone falls with a 2-3% "star" outcome, then you might gamble with a later round pick.

It's basic financial theory, you're optimizing a portfolio of picks with different distributions (probability of different outcomes), with the stipulation that all outcomes less than above replacement are valued at zero. You don't want to maximize the expected value of individual picks, but that of the portfolio as a whole (and if rebuilding, over multiple drafts).

I don’t think there’s such a thing as a Bottom 6 anymore. But there’s no reason a defensive Forward can’t be a potential Middle 6 guy. What I don’t like is drafting 4th liners by design.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@FLYguy3911 did you know about this guy? First time seeing him.

Toe, you’ve brought me a Jersey wop puck-moving Defenseman. This is why you’re the best.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

I was over on Detroit's page and found this 2023 Draft Simulator .

My go at it. Just a fun way to waste 5 minutes
View attachment 720485

7 (1). Zach Benson, LW, Winnipeg (WHL)
22 (1). Andrew Cristall, LW, Kelowna (WHL)
87 (3). Alex Ciernik, LW, Sodertalje (Allsvenskan)
95 (3). Andrew Strathmann, LHD, Youngstown (USHL)
103 (4). Aiden Fink, RW, Brooks (AJHL)
120 (4). Matthew Mania, RHD, Sudbury (OHL)
135 (5). Hoyt Stanley, RHD, Victoria (BCHL)
167 (6). Zeb Forsfjall, C, Skelleftea (J20 Nationell)
172 (6). Tanner Adams, RW, Tri-City (USHL)
199 (7). Ryan Conmy, RW, Sioux City (USHL)

Edit: used the ranking from My Cozen Dylan's mock draft 3.0, which I participated in myself.

 

[deadhead]

I don’t think there’s such a thing as a Bottom 6 anymore. But there’s no reason a defensive Forward can’t be a potential Middle 6 guy. What I don’t like is drafting 4th liners by design.

I think of it more like you described, each player has a distribution of potential outcomes.
(using "lines" as a proxy for value, you could just use WAR or something like that instead).

The best players peak probably at say a second line level, with a decent probability of a 1st line outcome but also a 3rd/4th line outcome and even below replacement.

As you move down the draft, the distribution shifts down, but varies for each players, some may have a peak at 3rd or 4th line with a small tail, some may have dual peaks, 2nd/4th line with a substantial below replacement tail, and so on.

Past #100 or so, most players have a very thin tail toward the best outcomes, and a peak in the 3rd/4th line area that shifts down as you get deeper into the draft. A few have dual peaks, maybe a small 2nd line outcome paired with a much bigger 4th line/sub replacement value peak.

Now once you get to below replacement level there's no "negative" value, you hit or you don't.

When the chance to get a top two line outcome becomes close to zero, then it makes sense to focus on expected value over "best outcomes."
That is, you may rather have a top 4th line guy with significant probability than a so-so 3rd line guy with a much lower probability, because in both cases they're building depth and saving money, but if you're a good team, you're looking to replace them down the road. And of course you might start drafting with specific outcomes in mind, are they suitable for the PK, an energy line, etc. that would provide more value at the bottom of the roster.

 

[Tripod]

7 (1). Zach Benson, LW, Winnipeg (WHL)
22 (1). Andrew Cristall, LW, Kelowna (WHL)
87 (3). Alex Ciernik, LW, Sodertalje (Allsvenskan)
95 (3). Andrew Strathmann, LHD, Youngstown (USHL)
103 (4). Aiden Fink, RW, Brooks (AJHL)
120 (4). Matthew Mania, RHD, Sudbury (OHL)
135 (5). Hoyt Stanley, RHD, Victoria (BCHL)
167 (6). Zeb Forsfjall, C, Skelleftea (J20 Nationell)
172 (6). Tanner Adams, RW, Tri-City (USHL)
199 (7). Ryan Conmy, RW, Sioux City (USHL)

Edit: used the ranking from My Cozen Dylan's mock draft 3.0, which I participated in myself.

Why at #22 when I did it, my options were Musty But Sale.

What dumb names this year.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Really hope they don't take Reinbacher, don't see the upside for 7 OA

I am not going to pretend to be an expert on him (or anyone) but the scouting report seems to say he has a floor of second pair defender with top pair upside across the board. He's not expected to put up big numbers but seems maybe more of a steady 40 points with top flight defense. Is that ideal for the first pick of a rebuild? No but if the other options are guys who have top six ceiling and bottom six floors and are less likely to hit that ceiling I'm cool going safe. All depends on who else is available. If it's a York or Caufield situation take Caufield. I don't foresee that type of dilemma happening here based on who is likely to he available. Not to mention there's a chance to get an equally or close to equally good forward at 22 than is available at 7.

 

[BernieParent]

We've done this enough to know when guys smack you in the face. Benson smacks me in the face. He's one of those guys where if you see 1-2 games, you've seen 50. It's the same every time. Toe and I talked about stopping watching him because we just couldn't learn any more. But he's kind of like crack, I can't stop. Which is why the Flyers will take a middle 6/2nd pair upside player who looks like a MAN and call it a day. That he exists at the confluence of HockeyGuy-isms AND elite playmaking makes it all the more mind-boggling.

Even the idea he's an "average" skater seems like a gross oversimplification, or the ultimate form over function argument. His edge work is plus with real burst, he sees lanes and angles others do not, he's adept moving with guys on his hip, his problem solving as a puck transporter is nearly flawless.



I didn't care for him that much, so there's that.

I feel the need to say that you, Toe, et al are contributing to the bad mood in which I am going to be when non-Benson gets picked at 7. I just hope you are happy with yourselves.

 

[flyerslducks]

Would be kinda pissed if the ducks draft Carlson over fantili

 

[TCTC]

Fresh Prince or bust! Get it done, Danny B. Bring him home!

 

[BernieParent]

For me, it's the scalability. This is a pile of attributes that don't have inherent ceilings. They play at ES. They play on the PP. They play at every level of hockey.

This is a nuanced playmaker. It's not just open ice. He uses feints to manipulate defenders in tight spaces. Even beyond his own passing, he anticipates receiving them so well. Time and time again, you could see him widening his base and leveraging defenders before the pass was anywhere near him. Always a move ahead. Always.

One little thing I always love when a player inherently does is be comfortable and aware enough to make the fine adjustments in pace to allow trailers to enter the play. Benson not only does that, he understands the extra value he can create by giving those trailers the extra second to get to the middle of the ice. And he has the processing power necessary to weaponize that time to set up defenders.

I get that he's not a picture perfect skater, but at its most base level, why does he get to so many loose pucks if there isn't function under the hood? He's such a good forecheker too. As F2, he did a great job of strangling momentum by angling rushers off into the wall.

And then you have the elephant in the room. He's a transformative passer. How many players in any draft can you say you think have a chance to be the best player on a good PP1? Maybe 3?

You're on my list, too, Jojo.

 

[bauer]

Gotta admit, it'd be pretty ironic to trade a former #7 overall defenseman just to effectively draft his replacement and shoehorn him into the same role he may not be able to live up to.

wasting the 7th on Reinbacher would immediately kill any positive vibes this franchise might've had from fans after the Provorov trade. because yeah, they'd basically just be drafting his replacement. Reinbacher isn't a gamechanger, and the Flyers desperately need to land one this draft.

best case scenario for us is Montreal or Arizona take one of Leonard, Reinbacher or Dvorsky, which would then guarantee the Flyers either Michkov or Benson.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think of it more like you described, each player has a distribution of potential outcomes.
(using "lines" as a proxy for value, you could just use WAR or something like that instead).

The best players peak probably at say a second line level, with a decent probability of a 1st line outcome but also a 3rd/4th line outcome and even below replacement.

As you move down the draft, the distribution shifts down, but varies for each players, some may have a peak at 3rd or 4th line with a small tail, some may have dual peaks, 2nd/4th line with a substantial below replacement tail, and so on.

Past #100 or so, most players have a very thin tail toward the best outcomes, and a peak in the 3rd/4th line area that shifts down as you get deeper into the draft. A few have dual peaks, maybe a small 2nd line outcome paired with a much bigger 4th line/sub replacement value peak.

Now once you get to below replacement level there's no "negative" value, you hit or you don't.

When the chance to get a top two line outcome becomes close to zero, then it makes sense to focus on expected value over "best outcomes."
That is, you may rather have a top 4th line guy with significant probability than a so-so 3rd line guy with a much lower probability, because in both cases they're building depth and saving money, but if you're a good team, you're looking to replace them down the road. And of course you might start drafting with specific outcomes in mind, are they suitable for the PK, an energy line, etc. that would provide more value at the bottom of the roster.

That’s all fair, but I think you and I may be more willing to churn those 4th liners than most NHL teams are. And if you don’t have roster spots, you’re extracting no value from those picks at all. Essentially, every 4th liner you develop is a slight limiter on all of your other fringe Middle 6 types. It’s incredibly difficult to pull all the right levers in real time.