Official 2015 tank thread IV

[ZeroPT*]

Can we go full Edmonton for a while and build a good pad pls

 

[couture23]

Can we go full Edmonton for a while and build a good pad pls

10/10 would love

 

[Moskau]

We kind of are full Edmonton already. 8 straight losses. Edmonton was at least picking up a few loser points along the way.

 

[Savitar]

I'm keeping my eyes on the Arizona game

 

[BakedBuffalo]

2-2 SJS-ARI going into 3rd.

 

[1972]

I know you can't do this but...take away that 10-3 stretch and we are 4-24-3 or a 29 pace over 82 games, let me repeat that TWENTY NINE POINT PACE

If we went 7-6 over that stretch we would be 11-30-3 or a 47 pace over 82 games

That winning streak might be the only thing keep a full fledged investigation led by Mike Harrington and friends into intentionally tanking, oh and we are going to be moving our most productive winger and a couple others. I feel about 99% confident we will end up 29th or 30th unless we go on another run like that. It's gonna such ass to if we miss out on McDavid or Eichel, really badly.

 

[Royisgone]

I know you can't do this but...take away that 10-3 stretch and we are 4-24-3 or a 29 pace over 82 games, let me repeat that TWENTY NINE POINT PACE

If we went 5-6 over that stretch we would be 9-30-3 or a 39 pace over 82 games, THIRTY NINE POINTS

Works for me.

Lose, lose, and lose some more.

And then keep losing.

Next year we can work on winning.

 

[MacOfNiagara]

1-11-1 in our last 13
3 pts out of a possible 26 pts

FULL TANK AHEAD!!

Wow. WOW!

 

[couture23]

I know you can't do this but...take away that 10-3 stretch and we are 4-24-3 or a 29 pace over 82 games, let me repeat that TWENTY NINE POINT PACE

If we went 7-6 over that stretch we would be 11-30-3 or a 47 pace over 82 games

That winning streak might be the only thing keep a full fledged investigation led by Mike Harrington and friends into intentionally tanking, oh and we are going to be moving our most productive winger and a couple others. I feel about 99% confident we will end up 29th or 30th unless we go on another run like that. It's gonna such ass to if we miss out on McDavid or Eichel, really badly.

Incroyable! Incroyable!

 

[1972]

****ing hate the sharks, they literally do everything opposite of what you want them too. Always beat edmonton and arizona can't beat islanders, blues, or sabres.

 

[sabresfan129103]

So I know they changed the odds of winning the lottery, but it used to be that one team couldn't move up more then 4 places. Like when New Jersey won the lottery in 2011. Is that changed now? Could a team that finishes in 14th place draft #1 overall?

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Nail Yakupov, Jesus he blows

 

[Mattilaus]

So I know they changed the odds of winning the lottery, but it used to be that one team couldn't move up more then 4 places. Like when New Jersey won the lottery in 2011. Is that changed now? Could a team that finishes in 14th place draft #1 overall?

Yes any non-playoff team can win the lottery and whichever team does gets #1. But only one ball is drawn this year so if buffalo finishes last then at worst we will be #2 OA.

Next year they will draw three balls for the top 3 picks. So even if you finish dead last, you could end up with 4th OA. So this is the last year to somewhat reliably tank.

 

[30Yonge]

We kind of are full Edmonton already. 8 straight losses. Edmonton was at least picking up a few loser points along the way.

The Sabres need to accumulate less than 5 points over the next 7 games
to surpass Edmonton's McEichel cycle of 8 points out of 21 games in Nov/Dec.

 

[TehDoak]

Minnesota/Philly the next two games are both 'winnable' games for us. Though, at this point, they are both pretty hard to predict what team you'll see game to game.

Buffalo is due for one of those out of left field 5-6 goal games.

I predict we win vs Minny big and turn around and get blown out vs Philly.

 

[Zip15]

Minnesota/Philly the next two games are both 'winnable' games for us. Though, at this point, they are both pretty hard to predict what team you'll see game to game.

Buffalo is due for one of those out of left field 5-6 goal games.

I predict we win vs Minny big and turn around and get blown out vs Philly.

I guess the opposite. I think we'll be just the tonic that Minny needs. Philly, however, is an awful road team. I could see us lighting up Rob Zepp for 3 or 4 goals (which is lighting it up for this team). As long as we don't win both. I don't want more than a four-point lead on Edmonton heading into the ASB.

 

[TehDoak]

I guess the opposite. I think we'll be just the tonic that Minny needs. Philly, however, is an awful road team. I could see us lighting up Rob Zepp for 3 or 4 goals (which is lighting it up for this team). As long as we don't win both. I don't want more than a four-point lead on Edmonton heading into the ASB.

I could see it going either way. Minny is pretty fragile right now, but I imagine both Vanek and Pominville will be amped up. But, I could see them giving up on their coach an just biding time till he's fired.

Philly is very much Jekyll and Hyde so its hard to predict.

 

[KennyFnPowers*]

We kind of are full Edmonton already. 8 straight losses. Edmonton was at least picking up a few loser points along the way.

pretty sure I read that the DET loss marked the longest reg-season losing streak in team history... something to that effect?

 

[Gabrielor]

Edmonton is still a concern for 30th.

5 and 6 game road trips left for them. No home-stand greater than 3. Tough hockey division.

Mapping their points percentage pre-Eakins and post-Eakins:

7-19-5 19/62= .3064 (62 possible points to earn)
3-7-3 9/26= .3461 (26 possible points to earn)

They've gotten better, but not significantly.

.3461 of possible points earned is pace for roughly a 55 point finish for them.

Games by 10:
4-5-1
2-7-1
1-6-3
2-5-3
1-3-0

I know corsi and fenwick declare us far worse, and am confident we'd lose head-to-head, I can't ignore the fact that they have a tough road ahead of them. Based on their schedule, not exactly sure when that 'catch-up' point is.

Zip, maybe you can assuage my worries.

 

[Zip15]

Edmonton is still a concern for 30th.

5 and 6 game road trips left for them. No home-stand greater than 3. Tough hockey division.

Mapping their points percentage pre-Eakins and post-Eakins:

7-19-5 19/62= .3064 (62 possible points to earn)
3-7-3 9/26= .3461 (26 possible points to earn)

They've gotten better, but not significantly.

.3461 of possible points earned is pace for roughly a 55 point finish for them.

I think a better way to look at it may be how they're playing since Nelson took over. They looked like the same team under MacTavish and Eakins. Since Nelson took the helm--and they acquired some help at 2C and got Pouliot back--they look far more competitive and engaged. It doesn't hurt that Scrivens started playing a bit better around that time, too. Since Nelson has assumed the job, they're 3-3-2. It's unfortunate that they traded Perron just as they strengthened their middle lines with Roy and the return of Pouliot. I'd feel even more confident if they had Perron, who was probably due for a shot% correction and more goals in the second half.

Games by 10:
4-5-1
2-7-1
1-6-3
2-5-3
1-3-0

I know corsi and fenwick declare us far worse, and am confident we'd lose head-to-head, I can't ignore the fact that they have a tough road ahead of them. Based on their schedule, not exactly sure when that 'catch-up' point is.

Zip, maybe you can assuage my worries.

It's a combination of math and a faith that Scrivens/Fasth can give them even slightly below-average goaltending. Heck, even going by the eye test, the Oilers under Nelson have looked much better than we have at any point--yes, including our luck-filled 10-3 stretch.

With trades and inevitable injuries, that lineup we saw last night isn't far off what it's going to look like over the final 1/4 of the season. I don't see Edmonton moving any of its big names during the season. Other than Petry, I think the roster we see there now is what it'll look like at season's end.

Finally, we are right on pace with last year's results, but our goal differential is far worse than last year (-72 this year vs -48 at same point last year), which suggests we are even worse, if that's possible. Trust the process. We are awful.

 

[Gabrielor]

I think a better way to look at it may be how they're playing since Nelson took over.

...

Finally, we are right on pace with last year's results, but our goal differential is far worse than last year (-72 this year vs -48 at same point last year), which suggests we are even worse, if that's possible. Trust the process. We are awful.

Yeah, accounting Nelson's record, point percentage would be up to around 65 point finish, much easier to deal with.

Their schedule is rough though.

Also, Buffalo's 1-9-2 record down the stretch in 13-14 is a feat that will be tough to replicate (since our current 8 L stretch put us on pace with last year, but hasn't actually put us 'ahead' of last year [yet]).

 

[Kublakhan]

It's only half way!! This tanking stuff is so tiring

 

[sabres4ever]

I know it makes some people nervous based on Edmonton's remaining schedule, but, who would have thought they'd beat the Isles and Hawks as badly as they did? Granted, they're not going to do that with any consistency, but, they are going to win games more than we will.

 

[Beerz]

Yotes make their 1st tank move.

Seems funny saying it...but Doobs was their best goalie.

 

[Beerz]

And so it begins...