Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season VI: It's no longer the off-season, but the thread isn't done yet

[Canada4Gold]

If we didn't have Semien and Ray last year and there were 2 plugs there and suddenly now we bring in Gausman and Chapman instead of 2 plugs we had an A+ offseason right?

I know it sort of matters who the outgoing players are, but they were free agents. We didn't DFA them, we didn't non tender them. We didn't trade them. We didn't make any decisions this offseason that lost us control of Semien and Ray so while I get it, it seems kind of unfair to penalize the offseason we had because 2 guys were leaving. To me the better way to do it is to look at the team you have once the offseason starts(with free agents already gone) and what did you do to make it better or worse. In that case we're a B+ at worst and IMO we're an A. Not an A+ but an A.

 

[BertCorbeau]

If we didn't have Semien and Ray last year and there were 2 plugs there and suddenly now we bring in Gausman and Chapman instead of 2 plugs we had an A+ offseason right?

I know it sort of matters who the outgoing players are, but they were free agents. We didn't DFA them, we didn't non tender them. We didn't trade them. We didn't make any decisions this offseason that lost us control of Semien and Ray so while I get it, it seems kind of unfair to penalize the offseason we had because 2 guys were leaving. To me the better way to do it is to look at the team you have once the offseason starts(with free agents already gone) and what did you do to make it better or worse. In that case we're a B+ at worst and IMO we're an A. Not an A+ but an A.

What's really going to bake your noodle is had they re-signed Semien and Ray to their respective contracts, is that their ranking might be the exact same because they didn't do enough to upgrade last year's roster.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Toronto Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker pleaded not guilty on Monday following his arrest for a DUI charge last week, according to court documents obtained by Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling. Walker waived his appearance at a pre-trial conference and entered the plea through his lawyer.

 

[dredeye]

Ramirez apparently has had informal extension talks with the guardians

 

[Puckstuff]

If we didn't have Semien and Ray last year and there were 2 plugs there and suddenly now we bring in Gausman and Chapman instead of 2 plugs we had an A+ offseason right?

I know it sort of matters who the outgoing players are, but they were free agents. We didn't DFA them, we didn't non tender them. We didn't trade them. We didn't make any decisions this offseason that lost us control of Semien and Ray so while I get it, it seems kind of unfair to penalize the offseason we had because 2 guys were leaving. To me the better way to do it is to look at the team you have once the offseason starts(with free agents already gone) and what did you do to make it better or worse. In that case we're a B+ at worst and IMO we're an A. Not an A+ but an A.

Irrespective of Semien/Ray (which I agree shouldn't even be a factor) a good bench mark in my opinion would have be adding around 15 projected FWAR outside of our internal growth and that would be an A+. They added a projected 10.4 fwar from the main 4 plus whatever they get from the Phelps and Vasquez types and this is not including our internal growth.

A ton of combinations to add 15 WAR but an A or A+ (IMO) would have looked something like:

Gausman ~
Chapman ~
Garcia ~
Kikuchi ~
Another big bat in addition to Chapman at the expense of FA $$$ i.e Freeman, Scwarber or Marte OR Ray instead of Kikuchi.
Barlow/Clase tier reliever. + 1.0-1.5 WAR. (would have cost at minimum top 10 prospects or more and can still happen).

Maybe I'm chasing phantoms on the economics side here thinking we can have a Red Sox or Padres level payroll but that's why it's an A+ or the highest possible bench mark. Is it unfair of me to think they should spend an extra 30 mill a year and still keep Bichette/Vladdy? Yeah, probably... but that's life.

So an A for Atkins/Shaps and a C for Rogers ; ) just because their an easy scape goat.

I'm still pretty damn happy though. Right now B+ seems fair. I'll give them an A- if they can add a back end reliver.

 

[Bjindaho]

Ramirez apparently has had informal extension talks with the guardians

Cleveland leaked that before only to have his agent publicly deny the rumor

 

[Bjindaho]

If we didn't have Semien and Ray last year and there were 2 plugs there and suddenly now we bring in Gausman and Chapman instead of 2 plugs we had an A+ offseason right?

I know it sort of matters who the outgoing players are, but they were free agents. We didn't DFA them, we didn't non tender them. We didn't trade them. We didn't make any decisions this offseason that lost us control of Semien and Ray so while I get it, it seems kind of unfair to penalize the offseason we had because 2 guys were leaving. To me the better way to do it is to look at the team you have once the offseason starts(with free agents already gone) and what did you do to make it better or worse. In that case we're a B+ at worst and IMO we're an A. Not an A+ but an A.

But your offseason is about improving short and long term and losing an mvp finalist and a cy young winner hurts (because it is lost production that has to be made up).

I give us a C because I dont think we've moved the needle significantly from the end of last year, but we were the best team in the division at the end of the year, TB got weaker, NYY made lateral moves, and Boston improved a tiny bit. So a C isn't necessarily a negative when you can't just give Ray and Semien the same deal for another year.

Putting that in perspective, if you give the Jays an A+ in retrospect (for last year), no other team could possibly have earned above a B+ for that offseason (because the value out of the two contracts was that good).

 

[Bjindaho]

When one of them can hit the way Kirk can, I don't have much concern about having a catcher DH.

Even if it's just the two of them on the roster, having them both play is worth it for the small risk that Jansen gets hurt and you lose the DH for a few innings.

The DH rule being amended so a pitcher can become DH but no other position can is utter BS. If a DH can move to C, then this is literally a non-issue.

Instead of that, MLB changed the rule to blatantly favor one team.

 

[Zanks]

But your offseason is about improving short and long term and losing an mvp finalist and a cy young winner hurts (because it is lost production that has to be made up).

I give us a C because I dont think we've moved the needle significantly from the end of last year, but we were the best team in the division at the end of the year, TB got weaker, NYY made lateral moves, and Boston improved a tiny bit. So a C isn't necessarily a negative when you can't just give Ray and Semien the same deal for another year.

Putting that in perspective, if you give the Jays an A+ in retrospect (for last year), no other team could possibly have earned above a B+ for that offseason (because the value out of the two contracts was that good).

See, last offseason was great, but retroactively, I'd have changed it. Obviously, we shoulda grabbed more and better relievers.

We should have locked up Semien and Ray for more term... There were posters here that said as much. These were very player friendly deals. The definition of a show me deal. Woulda been nice to have the team option to keep players if they played well. That's a mark on last off season.

 

[Discoverer]

See, last offseason was great, but retroactively, I'd have changed it. Obviously, we shoulda grabbed more and better relievers.

We should have locked up Semien and Ray for more term... There were posters here that said as much. These were very player friendly deals. The definition of a show me deal. Woulda been nice to have the team option to keep players if they played well. That's a mark on last off season.

I'd be interested to see how many people wanted them on long-term deals at the time. Both were coming off down seasons and had huge risk.

 

[kb]

I'd be interested to see how many people wanted them on long-term deals at the time. Both were coming off down seasons and had huge risk.

Sounds like a touch of hindsight crept into the thinking there....

 

[weems]

I dont think we're done yet either. Whether that means a deal between now and opening day (which is fairly unlikely) or sometime during the season, Something has to transpire at the catching position that will force our hand into making another deal.

Moreno will most likely go down to AAA and rip it up. At that point you'll need to eventually call him up and 1 of Jansen, Kirk, Moreno will be on the odd man out.

Groshans also now looks blocked from getting any playing time with the aquisition of Chapman and Martinez projected to have to move over to 3B once reaching the majors.

I think we see Vladdy take even another step, Bo will be better, hopefully a full season of Springer and still one more impactful trade.

 

[Ale Brew]

See, last offseason was great, but retroactively, I'd have changed it. Obviously, we shoulda grabbed more and better relievers.

We should have locked up Semien and Ray for more term... There were posters here that said as much. These were very player friendly deals. The definition of a show me deal. Woulda been nice to have the team option to keep players if they played well. That's a mark on last off season.

At least in Semien’s case the appeal to sign here was a one year reset his market deal. Nobody was giving him big money over multiple years coming off his 2020 season.

Ray was different. You surely could have locked him up. But who really wanted that? He had 6 ERA and was NOT in position to ask for a long term deal.

It just so happened to work out in both cases. Can’t blame the Jays for that.

 

[Bjindaho]

See, last offseason was great, but retroactively, I'd have changed it. Obviously, we shoulda grabbed more and better relievers.

We should have locked up Semien and Ray for more term... There were posters here that said as much. These were very player friendly deals. The definition of a show me deal. Woulda been nice to have the team option to keep players if they played well. That's a mark on last off season.

Neither player had any interest at all in signing long term.

Semien signed a one-year deal because Oakland refused to offer a long term offer but was always hoping to get an offer close to home.

Ray took a discount to come back but was only willing to do one year (he was worth 10-12 on the open market at the time).

Yes, we all wanted more BP, but the best offseason is the team that improves the most, not the one that plugs holes (more BP would only have made it better).

Ray and Semien for 26M is a spectacular offseason. The failure of the BP is more an accumulation of mediocrity before that.

 

[phillipmike]

2022 Positional Power Rankings: First Base

After a few years of underwhelming production, first base has enjoyed a resurgence spurred by a mix of young stars and veterans on the rebound.

blogs.fangraphs.com

1. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	637	.304	.391	.598	.413	48.0	-1.1	-0.3	5.7
Cavan Biggio	28	.226	.338	.401	.323	0.0	-0.0	-0.0	0.0
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	21	.271	.315	.477	.336	0.2	-0.1	-0.0	0.1
Greg Bird	14	.230	.305	.420	.312	-0.1	-0.0	0.1	0.0
Total	700	.299	.385	.583	.405	48.1	-1.2	-0.2	5.8

In his third major league season, at the ripe old age of 22, Guerrero finally lived up to the pedigree and the prospect hype, making a run at the Triple Crown but settling for the league leads in OBP (.401), SLG (.611), wRC+ (166), and WAR (6.7), plus a share of the home run title (48, matching Salvador Perez). If not for Shohei Ohtani’s remarkable performance, he’d have claimed American League MVP honors. While retaining his exceptional selectivity at the plate, Vladito elevated the ball with greater consistency, nearly doubling his barrel rate from 2020 (8.7%) to ’21 (15.1%) and posting a 99th-percentile average exit velocity (95.1 mph). He also proved to be a capable fielder at first base, though a Gold Glove isn’t in his future. His projections suggest he’s fully capable of a repeat performance, which, wow!

If Guerrero approaches last year’s total of 28 games at DH, two more players with famous fathers could fill in at first. Biggio, who spent more time at third base, right field, and second base than first in 2021, is coming off a dreadful year marred by right hand, left elbow (UCL), neck and back injuries, sinking to an 84 wRC+ from 122 the year before. Gurriel, the team’s regular left fielder, was off his game a bit as well, with more grounders and less quality contact. “Bird with the Blue Jays” has a nice ring to it, but the chances he’s getting are still based on his 2015 and late ’17 promise.

 

[Bjindaho]

2022 Positional Power Rankings: First Base

After a few years of underwhelming production, first base has enjoyed a resurgence spurred by a mix of young stars and veterans on the rebound.

blogs.fangraphs.com

A stats site says he is not good at 1B defensively even though their own stats suggest he was the best defensive 1B in the AL :S

 

[Zanks]

Neither player had any interest at all in signing long term.

Semien signed a one-year deal because Oakland refused to offer a long term offer but was always hoping to get an offer close to home.

Ray took a discount to come back but was only willing to do one year (he was worth 10-12 on the open market at the time).

Yes, we all wanted more BP, but the best offseason is the team that improves the most, not the one that plugs holes (more BP would only have made it better).

Ray and Semien for 26M is a spectacular offseason. The failure of the BP is more an accumulation of mediocrity before that.

They should have paid Ray 10-12 million for multiple years.

They should have offered Semien a 100m 5yr contract. What he was asking for at the time.

Your giving them a C grade this year because free agents didn't resign. And to quote you, neither player had any desire to sign here long term... So how come you dock this summer when FA wouldn't sign, but not last summer when FA would sign long term.

I find your baseline logic inconsistent.

 

[Discoverer]

They should have paid Ray 10-12 million for multiple years.

They should have offered Semien a 100m 5yr contract. What he was asking for at the time.

Your giving them a C grade this year because free agents didn't resign. And to quote you, neither player had any desire to sign here long term... So how come you dock this summer when FA wouldn't sign, but not last summer when FA would sign long term.

I find your baseline logic inconsistent.

Yeah, so this is entirely based on hindsight.

You think that, in the winter of 2020, it would have been smart of the Jays to give Ray a multi-year contract at $10-12 million per year for multiple years coming off a 6.62 ERA and 7.84 BB/9?

 

[kb]

They should have paid Ray 10-12 million for multiple years.

They should have offered Semien a 100m 5yr contract. What he was asking for at the time.

Your giving them a C grade this year because free agents didn't resign. And to quote you, neither player had any desire to sign here long term... So how come you dock this summer when FA wouldn't sign, but not last summer when FA would sign long term.

I find your baseline logic inconsistent.

The inconsistent logic being missed is that you nor anyone else has any idea what offers were made prior to what they actually signed for, along with assuming what they would or would not have signed for without any factual knowledge of the situation.

 

[rojac]

So, why does anyone care how ESPN (or anyone else) rated the Jays' offseason?

 

[Discoverer]

So, why does anyone care how ESPN (or anyone else) rated the Jays' offseason?

Because, while we're waiting for the season to start, we can only talk about which catchers will be on the opening day roster and who will be the 9th reliever for so long.

 

[Bjindaho]

They should have paid Ray 10-12 million for multiple years.

They should have offered Semien a 100m 5yr contract. What he was asking for at the time.

Your giving them a C grade this year because free agents didn't resign. And to quote you, neither player had any desire to sign here long term... So how come you dock this summer when FA wouldn't sign, but not last summer when FA would sign long term.

I find your baseline logic inconsistent.

Ray was worth that amount per the market. He wasn't interested in multiple years because he wanted to be a free agent this year (he was explicitly betting on himself and Pete Walker).

Semien wanted 5 years, 100M from Oakland of San Francisco (aka home). There was no indication that he would have accepted anything like that from Toronto.

It is revisionist to say that guys signed to good deals should have been signed to better deals when there was never anything to suggest that either player was willing to sell low to come here long term.

 

[Sheppy]

Question for those who live in Toronto or have travelled there for Jays games...

I've been to a half dozen games there, but was curious if the hotel overlooking the outfield (Marriot, i believe) is worth it? Myself and a few buddies are planning on coming down to TO for a series in the summer at some point. I'm sure the hotel will be pricey as shit.

 

[Cloned]

Because, while we're waiting for the season to start, we can only talk about which catchers will be on the opening day roster and who will be the 9th reliever for so long.

I didn’t realize my one sentence post would start this chaos

 

[The Nemesis]

Feels weird not having a game this morning.

But then again it's nice to know I'm not missing anything while I try cutting my lawn