Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season VI: It's no longer the off-season, but the thread isn't done yet

[Bjindaho]

Dodgers P Bauer files defamation lawsuit against The Athletic - TSN.ca

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer sued The Athletic and former reporter Molly Knight on Tuesday, accusing them of “creating and spreading the false narrative” that he had fractured a woman’s skull during a sexual encounter.

www.tsn.ca

Thank god we didn't sign Bauer.

Imagine being the kind of piece of crap that thinks that not actually cracking a woman's skull somehow makes allegedly beating a woman nearly to death better.

I genuinely hope he is permanently banned. The judge essentially ruled that because she asked for rough sex, he was free to do whatever he pleased.

 

[Bjindaho]

 

[Blitzkrug]

Dexter Fowler is 36 already? Feels like I was just watching him break into the league with Colorado.

f*** me I'm getting to that age where all the guys I watched as a kid/teenager are starting to hang it up...send help.

Edit: confirmed minor league deal with an invite to the big league camp. sure why not.

 

[SDig14]

IIRC, Jays were interested in Fowler when he was signing his big FA contract. It's only 6 years and an ACL too late!

Honestly though, OF depth is good and I bet he's still way better than Smith.

 

[theaub]

Congrats zeke

 

[Blitzkrug]

They dodged a bullet on that one. Fowler got paid way too much for way too long after his last season with Chicago.

 

[Discoverer]

I liked Fowler for a long time, and it's fun to have him on a minor league deal now. Hopefully they don't actually need him in the majors, though.

For the record, he put up 3.0 fWAR for $82 million on his last contract. Ouch.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[ShaneFalco]

Congrats zeke

He would have had EE and JB here too

 

[Pink Mist]

Not sure if its been posted before (I'm sure it has but I couldn't find it in a search) but there's a really really good youtube documentary series currently being released about former Blue Jay great Dave Stieb thats worth spending the time watching.

Its about Dave Stieb pitching the Blues Jays' one and only no hitter in the franchise and the many close calls he had with it, and dives deep into the oddities and stats of Stieb and the Blue Jays.







Makes a pretty convincing case of why he should be in the HOF

 

[phillipmike]

I liked Fowler for a long time, and it's fun to have him on a minor league deal now. Hopefully they don't actually need him in the majors, though.

For the record, he put up 3.0 fWAR for $82 million on his last contract. Ouch.

Even worse he put up 1.6 bWAR over the course of that contract.

Our moves that offseason were Pearce and Morales who put up 1.4 bWAR over 2 years. At least Pearce returned Espinal and Morales was traded for IFA money which was spent on; Yosver Zulueta, Jiorgeny Casimiri and Sem Robberse. Robberse is out 7th ranked prospect and Zulueta is 19th. Espinal has already put up 2.8 bWAR.

 

[phillipmike]

2022 Positional Power Rankings: Second Base

With a few star shortstops sliding over to the keystone, second base projects to be incredibly deep.

blogs.fangraphs.com

25. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Cavan Biggio	364	.226	.338	.401	.323	0.4	-0.0	-0.3	1.4
Santiago Espinal	294	.258	.316	.367	.299	-5.5	-0.2	1.1	0.6
Otto Lopez	42	.256	.308	.370	.295	-0.9	0.0	-0.1	0.1
Total	700	.242	.327	.384	.311	-6.0	-0.3	0.8	2.1

Acquiring Matt Chapman to play third base simplifies things for the Jays: they can play a lefty utilityman against right-handed pitching, a righty utilityman against left-handed pitching, and use both to chip in across the diamond on off days. That sounds like a waste of Biggio’s bat, but those aforementioned at-bats will add up. Espinal grades out as the better defender, which suggests we’ll frequently see him at second while Biggio tags in elsewhere to give someone a rest day.

If Biggio takes a step forward this year, this might be less of a platoon and more of a 75/25 split, but that’s somewhat harsh to Espinal. Before the Chapman trade, he looked like Toronto’s everyday third baseman, and while our projections are skeptical that he can repeat his solid 2021 offensively, the defensive bona fides are there. If he surprises just slightly to the upside, he’s an average hitter with plus defense. That’s a nice player to have in a complementary role, and one of the benefits of adding a star elsewhere on the diamond.

2022 Positional Power Rankings: Third Base

Third base is a fun mix that includes steadily excellent stars, exciting young players, and intriguing bounce-back candidates.

blogs.fangraphs.com

9. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Matt Chapman	651	.226	.321	.451	.331	5.2	-0.0	8.0	3.8
Santiago Espinal	28	.258	.316	.367	.299	-0.5	-0.0	0.1	0.1
Cavan Biggio	21	.226	.338	.401	.323	0.0	-0.0	-0.0	0.1
Total	700	.228	.321	.446	.330	4.7	-0.0	8.1	3.9

Chapman’s bat is far more of a question mark than it was two years ago, as he’s produced a 104 wRC+ over the past two seasons while dealing with a hip injury he suffered in 2020. But the problem, at least offensively, comes down to a different culprit: strikeout rate. You can strike out a third of the time and still produce an average offensive line – Chapman just spent two years proving that – but it’s hard to truly excel when you give so many at-bats away. He’s making far less contact than he did at his peak, a problem he’ll have to remedy before re-ascending the ranks of the best third basemen in the game.

Our projection thinks he’ll be closer to his recent form than his best years, but there’s a silver lining: he’s so good defensively that we think he’ll produce a boatload of value anyway. Since arriving in the majors in 2017, Chapman and Nolan Arenado are clearly the best two third base defenders in the game, and no one else even comes close – Chapman is 27 outs ahead of third-place José Ramírez. So are the Jays worried about his hitting? Certainly – but only his hitting, because he’ll be a valuable player even if he never gets the strikeouts under control.

2022 Positional Power Rankings: Shortstop

Shortstop is a position marked by both star-power and depth.

blogs.fangraphs.com

5. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Bo Bichette	658	.289	.340	.500	.357	19.2	1.9	-1.3	4.9
Santiago Espinal	21	.258	.316	.367	.299	-0.4	-0.0	0.1	0.1
Jordan Groshans	21	.243	.306	.383	.300	-0.4	-0.0	0.1	0.1
Total	700	.287	.338	.492	.354	18.5	1.9	-1.1	5.1

Upon completing a full-season campaign in 2021, Bichette dispelled any remaining doubt about his hit tool – not that there was much of it to begin with. He absolutely rakes, and he’s one of the game’s few remaining hitters who could perennially average .300. Bichette actually swung at a career-high rate of balls last season, but his bat-to-ball skills meant his results on contact didn’t falter. Equally impressive is how he’s managed to whiff less and less with each season. It’s an old-school approach, and it works like a charm.

With Semien gone, however, there’s no obvious heir in the event that Bichette goes down. Espinal is great, but he’s going to be busy at third. Rounding out the list of candidates is Groshans, who’s on an upward trajectory but probably won’t be called up this year barring an unforeseen disaster. Shortstop in Toronto (and Buffalo) was the Bo Bichette show last year, and that’s going to be the case this year, too.

C: 4th
1B: 1st
2B: 25th
SS: 5th
3B: 9th

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Bjindaho]

2022 Positional Power Rankings: Second Base

With a few star shortstops sliding over to the keystone, second base projects to be incredibly deep.

blogs.fangraphs.com

2022 Positional Power Rankings: Third Base

Third base is a fun mix that includes steadily excellent stars, exciting young players, and intriguing bounce-back candidates.

blogs.fangraphs.com

2022 Positional Power Rankings: Shortstop

Shortstop is a position marked by both star-power and depth.

blogs.fangraphs.com

C: 4th
1B: 1st
2B: 25th
SS: 5th
3B: 9th

The last time Josh Donaldson had a better season than Chapman was 2017, but he is projected to be better next year because he is going to play for the Yankees

It's like Fangraphs doesn't understand the concept of decline.

Also, Texas's projection is stupid. Semien should be their starting SS with Seagar at 3B (because he is terrible as a SS and Marcus is good at it). The guy listed as their 3B (Ibanez) is actually a 2B. That would leave Texas near the top for SS (or at the top), bring 3B into the top 10, and leave 2B bottom half.

Biggio and Espinal will combine for 2 WAR in a full season even though their worst combined season was 2.1 last year.

 

[Eyedea]

The last time Josh Donaldson had a better season than Chapman was 2017, but he is projected to be better next year because he is going to play for the Yankees

It's like Fangraphs doesn't understand the concept of decline.

Also, Texas's projection is stupid. Semien should be their starting SS with Seagar at 3B (because he is terrible as a SS and Marcus is good at it). The guy listed as their 3B (Ibanez) is actually a 2B. That would leave Texas near the top for SS (or at the top), bring 3B into the top 10, and leave 2B bottom half.

Biggio and Espinal will combine for 2 WAR in a full season even though their worst combined season was 2.1 last year.

Optimally you might be right about Texas, but that is where Woodward is playing them. Seager isn't taking reps at 3B, Semien was great at 2B last season and will play there this season, and Ibanez is a 3B/2B. It ultimately hinges on Seager moving off SS, but reports from last season made it pretty obvious he was looking to sign somewhere that would not request a position change from him.

 

[Morgs]

Tapia batting 1 today is such a Montoyo move. Gonna be complaining about that all season zzz

 

[habamillions]

Tapia batting 1 today is such a Montoyo move. Gonna be complaining about that all season zzz

Tapia should be batting 9th imo. Get on base before lineup flips over

 

[Bjindaho]

Optimally you might be right about Texas, but that is where Woodward is playing them. Seager isn't taking reps at 3B, Semien was great at 2B last season and will play there this season, and Ibanez is a 3B/2B. It ultimately hinges on Seager moving off SS, but reports from last season made it pretty obvious he was looking to sign somewhere that would not request a position change from him.

Silly Chris Woodward.

Of all the SS that played at least 500 innings, he was the 4th worst defensively

 

[Eyedea]

Tapia batting 1 today is such a Montoyo move. Gonna be complaining about that all season zzz

This was my biggest fear (that he'll get Alcides'ed) but I also understand that players and staff superstitiously don't want to play around with lineup order. So if Springer is unavailable, Tapia will probably fill in both defensively (CF) and offensively (leadoff).

 

[Scion]

Is the game televised today?

 

[Eyedea]

Silly Chris Woodward.

Of all the SS that played at least 500 innings, he was the 4th worst defensively

This was always the issue for anyone signing Seager. He wanted to play SS and I doubt anybody interested in adding him would want to sour the relationship on day 1 by demanding him to switch positions.

 

[weems]

Is the game televised today?

Looks like it might not be.

YES is carrying the game but not showing up on any SN channels.

Just checked and its actually available if you have Rogers sport package

 

[Canada4Gold]

I was concerned Tapia might hit leadoff when he gets into games. I'm not thrilled. Just bat him 9th. When he gets on he'll still be on base for the top of the lineup but one of our worst hitters will hit once less per game

 

[Blitzkrug]

Charlie montoyo and his love for below average hitters is like Claude Julien and uncontrollable fetish for playing Gregory Campbell and Daniel Paille when the Bruins needed a goal late. Or if you're a Habs fan, Nick Cousins. Or in the post cup years playing an 89 year old Jay Pandolfo in the top 6.

Tapia is not a good hitter, let alone being good enough to lead off. But Charlie sees "muh speed" and '"muh running out poorly hit grounders"

It was maddening then, and it's maddening now. The worst part is if you take away the offender's toy like some have suggested, they just find another toy to replace it.

 

[Discoverer]

I'll be concerned when Tapia hits leadoff in a real game. It's still Spring Training, and batting Tapia in Springer's spot allows everyone else to stay in what I assume will be their normal spot in the lineup as they continue to get ready for the season.