Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season VI: It's no longer the off-season, but the thread isn't done yet

[kb]

Feels weird not having a game this morning.

But then again it's nice to know I'm not missing anything while I try cutting my lawn

No game?

I just yell at people on mine. Because there is still snow piles, and they shouldn't be standing on it.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

So, why does anyone care how ESPN (or anyone else) rated the Jays' offseason?

Prognostications and differing opinions are always fun to read. No different than caring how anyone on these boards rates the Jays' offseason, Jays fans included.

The only thing that matters is the games played. All the speculative stuff means squat. From predictions right on down to what the advanced stats suggest is to happen. Still fun to immerse one's self into while awaiting the season (which still feels like an eternity away).

 

[Zanks]

Yeah, so this is entirely based on hindsight.

You think that, in the winter of 2020, it would have been smart of the Jays to give Ray a multi-year contract at $10-12 million per year for multiple years coming off a 6.62 ERA and 7.84 BB/9?

Absolutely yes.

He pitched well for the Jays and made the playoff start.

He'd had a history of high level play. I'm pretty sure he had been an all-star.

I was on this site/or RealGM advocating that the deal wasn't long enough, and that we should pay more per year to have him signed long term.

It's why I like the Kikuchi signing this year.

 

[Discoverer]

Absolutely yes.

He pitched well for the Jays and made the playoff start.

He'd had a history of high level play. I'm pretty sure he had been an all-star.

I was on this site/or RealGM advocating that the deal wasn't long enough, and that we should pay more per year to have him signed long term.

It's why I like the Kikuchi signing this year.

If you only count his time with the Jays in 2020, he still would have had the worst FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR%, and GB% since he became a full-time starter in the majors, and his 4.79 ERA wasn't far off. As for the playoffs, he was great, but it was also 3 innings. You literally can't extrapolate anything from that.

There were signs of what he was capable of, but he still wasn't actually good. So how much are you willing to spend to convince Ray to sign a multi-year extension when he was coming off by far his worst season ever and had basically no incentive to do so?

 

[The Nemesis]

MLB All-Under-25 Team: Ronald Acuña Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto and more

Only players who have yet to reach their 25th birthday by Opening Day are eligible for this team.

theathletic.com

The Athletic makes its picks for the best roster that can be assembled from players who are under 25 on opening day (MLB players only, no undebuted prospects). Of note for us:

Vlad at 1st
Bo at short
Manoah in the rotation
Kirk as an honorable mention at catcher.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looking at the roster it seems pretty locked in at this point. I can only see 5 real decisions left.

Locks(22):
Springer, Bo, Vladdy, Teo, Chapman, Kirk, Gurriel, Biggio, Jansen
Espinal, Tapia
Berrios, Gausman, Ryu, Manoah, Kikuchi
Stripling, Romano, Garcia, Mayza, Cimber, Richards

1. Is Pearson on the roster, or stretched out in AAA? I'd assume he's on the roster but it's not 100% certain

2. Do they carry 3 catchers? Given Kirk should be DHing a bunch, and the lack of other options for the extra position players I would guess yes, but they seem adverse to that idea in the past

3. 4 Bench/10 Pen or 5 Bench/9 Pen? I feel like it's 4 Bench/10 Pen. The reason for the extra 2 spots is because pitchers aren't stretched out yet so you need more arms. Then you use the 2 spots on 2 arms. In addition to that the extra position player spots are hard enough to fill as is and I can easily find another 2 arms to bring along

4.Greg Bird? I would say yes because the other options are terrible. He's had a great spring, is probably the best option at 1st to spell Vlad and he's lefty. You're not taking Mallex Smith instead, that would be dumb

5. The extra pen spots. Assuming 10 pen spots and Pearson gets one in addition to the locks above there' 3 extra spots and realistically I see 4 guys competing for them: Merryweather, Borucki, Vasquez and Phelps. Of those 4 I'd probably leave Vasquez in AAA but we haven't seen anything from Phelps so far, I think he got hit in the hand early in spring as missed a few days. Merryweather and Borucki have given up some runs and while it's only spring training and the process matters more than the results it could matter. Vasquez and Borucki are lefties which could help them. Mayza is the only other lefty in the pen. Do they want 2 or 3 lefties back there? Vasquez and Merryweather have options. Phelps also requires a 40 man roster spot which they have 2 remaining. 1 of which probably goes to Greg Bird. They have the room, but do they want to leave themselves having to DFA someone with the next add they want to make?

I'd go Pearson, McGuire, Bird, Merryweather, Borucki and Phelps

 

[dredeye]

Irrespective of Semien/Ray (which I agree shouldn't even be a factor) a good bench mark in my opinion would have be adding around 15 projected FWAR outside of our internal growth and that would be an A+. They added a projected 10.4 fwar from the main 4 plus whatever they get from the Phelps and Vasquez types and this is not including our internal growth.

A ton of combinations to add 15 WAR but an A or A+ (IMO) would have looked something like:

Gausman ~
Chapman ~
Garcia ~
Kikuchi ~
Another big bat in addition to Chapman at the expense of FA $$$ i.e Freeman, Scwarber or Marte OR Ray instead of Kikuchi.
Barlow/Clase tier reliever. + 1.0-1.5 WAR. (would have cost at minimum top 10 prospects or more and can still happen).

Maybe I'm chasing phantoms on the economics side here thinking we can have a Red Sox or Padres level payroll but that's why it's an A+ or the highest possible bench mark. Is it unfair of me to think they should spend an extra 30 mill a year and still keep Bichette/Vladdy? Yeah, probably... but that's life.

So an A for Atkins/Shaps and a C for Rogers ; ) just because their an easy scape goat.

I'm still pretty damn happy though. Right now B+ seems fair. I'll give them an A- if they can add a back end reliver.

This is the highest payroll in team history already and they are apparently able to add more. The rogers is cheap narrative needs to go away permanently

 

[phillipmike]

Ranking the 10 best rotations in MLB

Last season, 396 different human beings took the mound as the starting pitcher in a Major League game. Yes, that was a record (blowing past the previous mark of 368 set in the previous full season in 2019), partly attributable to the changing nature of pitcher usage patterns and partly

www.mlb.com

3. Blue Jays
José Berríos, RHP
Kevin Gausman, RHP
Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP
Alek Manoah, RHP
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP

Even after the departure of reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, the Blue Jays could potentially field an even better rotation than the one that ranked sixth in the Majors in ERA (3.79) last season. That's because they'll have a full season from Berríos, their impact 2021 Trade Deadline acquisition (120 ERA+ over the last three seasons), and because of their offseason signing of Gausman (138 ERA+ over the last two seasons).

Ryu, who was league average last season after a run of three straight extraordinary seasons, should benefit from Matt Chapman's defensive help in the infield. Manoah was a breakout rookie last year (136 ERA+ in 111 2/3 innings), and former top pitching prospect Nate Pearson looms as depth here. Toronto hopes to do for the recently signed Kikuchi, who was terrific in the first half last season (3.48 ERA) before cratering in the second (5.98), what it did last year for Steven Matz, whose career was rejuvenated in his lone season north of the border.

 

[Discoverer]

This is the highest payroll in team history already and they are apparently able to add more. The rogers is cheap narrative needs to go away permanently

Given how much money they have, I'll stop considering them cheap when they spend to Luxury Tax threshold.

 

[dredeye]

Given how much money they have, I'll stop considering them cheap when they spend to Luxury Tax threshold.

It’s the argument one makes when they have no good reasoning

 

[Waveburner]

Like I said, there are lots of reasons to think this team could improve. And I totally understand why they let Semien go and love the Chapman acquisition. I would have preferred Ray to Gausman but Gausman should be a fine addition.

But at the end of the day, 2 of the top 5 players in the AL from last year are gone. That's a massive hit. We lost 14 WAR off the roster and we'd be absolutely delighted to get 9-10 WAR from the two guys replacing them. And I can see where, because of that, an average grade for the offseason is fair.

I think Gausman was a slightly more preferable option myself. 2021 is the only season in Ray's career where he has kept his walks at a reasonable level. I do think there is a strong chance that Ray has found a permanent new skill with his improved control and command, but guys as wild as Ray was can suffer regression after huge breakthroughs like he just experienced.

Also in his last handful of starts in 2021, Ray's velocity went from sitting 95-97+ to sitting 92-93. Maybe that was some fatigue or a minor ailment, but it's never a good sign when pitchers show a drop off like that. Ray in particular needs that velocity as he only uses 2 pitches, albeit his slider is one of the filthiest pitches in MLB.

Then there is the simple reality that even if his improved control/command carries over and he keeps the premium velocity on his fastball, there is very little chance he replicates his 2021 season. He was fantastic, but also quite lucky as he gives up quite a few homeruns (an inordinate number of which were solo jobs in 2021) and hard contact.

Don't get me wrong, I'd have been plenty ok with keeping Ray instead of signing Gausman, but given a choice between two terrific options, I'd take Gausman.

 

[phillipmike]

Zwelling said the Jays were offered Winker and Suarez but they preferred Chapman.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Puckstuff]

This is the highest payroll in team history already and they are apparently able to add more. The rogers is cheap narrative needs to go away permanently

Every year should be the highest payroll in team history just based on indexing inflation.

 

[phillipmike]

The 10 best bullpens in baseball, ranked

Our annual exercise in self-defeat is upon us. Bullpens are every bit as important to team outcome as the lineups and the rotations we ranked earlier this week. But given how erratic this particular area of the game is, we cannot in good conscience tell you that anything you read

www.mlb.com

9) Blue Jays
Closer: RHP Jordan Romano
Primary setup men: RHP Adam Cimber, LHP Tim Mayza, RHP Yimi García, RHP Trevor Richards
A leap of faith here, because the bullpen is basically the reason the Blue Jays fell frustratingly shy of the postseason last year. It had a 4.08 ERA and the lowest number of holds (60) in MLB.
But the above only included partial-season contributions from Cimber and Richards, both of whom were acquired in midseason trades and posted sub-1.00 WHIPs with Toronto. Now, they’ll be around all year to set up Romano, who is one of the best relievers in the game (1.97 ERA in 77 2/3 innings in 2020-21). García, who has a 120 ERA+ and 1.00 WHIP over the last three seasons, is an impact offseason signing. Former top pitching prospect Nate Pearson could be an X-factor, depending on what his role turns out to be. Veteran David Phelps is also healthy and an option. So even though the ’pen underperformed last year, the Blue Jays will have a good bullpen this year.

 

[phillipmike]

Here are the Giants' Top 30 Prospects for 2022

The Giants went through four consecutive losing seasons in 2017-20, matching their longest downturn since World War II, before erupting for a franchise-record 107 victories last year. Beyond that big leap, they're poised for long-term success. San Francisco's farm system is as deep as it has...

www.mlb.com

21. Toronto Blue Jays
2021 midseason rank: 14
2021 preseason rank: 7
2020 midseason rank: 7
2020 preseason rank: 16
Top 100 Prospects: Gabriel Moreno (No. 7), Orelvis Martinez (No. 38), Jordan Groshans (No. 80)
The Jays are gearing up for a potential title run in 2022, and their system’s drop over the years due to graduations and trades reflects the moves of a win-now organization. Moreno is the club’s catcher of the future and that could come early in 2022, based on the readiness of his bat and his athleticism behind the plate. Martinez and Groshans lead a charge of multi-positional infielders -- a group that includes eight of the club’s top 14 prospects. The arms are behind the bats, but 2021 picks Ricky Tiedemann and Irv Carter show promise heading into their first full seasons. More »

 

[phillipmike]

MLB offseason grades: Dodgers, Braves, Blue Jays, Mets, Twins get high marks; Yankees, Astros needed more

The hot stove is about to be turned off, meaning it's time to get judgmental

www.cbssports.com

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' offseason consisted of four notable moves: signing Kevin Gausmann and Yusei Kikuchi to beef up the rotation; trading for Matt Chapman to serve as their new third baseman; and adding Yimi García for bullpen depth purposes. There's certainly risk in Chapman's game, and it's to be seen if they can unlock a higher level of performance with Kikuchi. That said, it was a good winter overall, and we expect the Blue Jays to be highly competitive within the American League East. GRADE: A

 

[SDig14]

it does seem like he wants to stay in Cleveland, I just can't fathom this owner actually spending what it would take to sign him to an extension to keep him in Cleveland until he retires. This would borderline double their annual payroll, but should bring in some decent merchandise dollars if they keep him.

 

[Kurtz]

Zwelling said the Jays were offered Winker and Suarez but they preferred Chapman.

Winker's a monster against righties. I wonder if we can still make a move for him, if he's on the block.

 

[Haringoth]

Its almost a certainty that offer was from the Reds pre trade to Seattle.

 

[Discoverer]

It’s the argument one makes when they have no good reasoning

Rogers regularly reports ~$15 billion in annual revenue. The Jays payroll is a tiny portion of their operations and provides them with a ridiculously massive amount of revenue. I don't expect them to just toss money at the team (which is why I wouldn't complain if they drew the line at the Luxury Tax - at that point, the return on investment is waaaay less, so it's a logical point to stop spending and I wouldn't fault then for refusing to go past it), but when the team is as good as this one is (or 2015-16 was) and you decide not to spend to finish the job because there's a chance your annual income might be $1.84 billion instead of $1.86 billion, I think that's being cheap (not to mention the potential added income of a good playoff run likely makes up for that expenditure and then some).

 

[Bjindaho]

Rogers regularly reports ~$15 billion in annual revenue. The Jays payroll is a tiny portion of their operations and provides them with a ridiculously massive amount of revenue. I don't expect them to just toss money at the team (which is why I wouldn't complain if they drew the line at the Luxury Tax - at that point, the return on investment is waaaay less, so it's a logical point to stop spending and I wouldn't fault then for refusing to go past it), but when the team is as good as this one is (or 2015-16 was) and you decide not to spend to finish the job because there's a chance your annual income might be $1.84 billion instead of $1.86 billion, I think that's being cheap (not to mention the potential added income of a good playoff run likely makes up for that expenditure and then some).

I would argue that the Blue Jays have likely lost money the last few years. Before we have any arguments about Rogers, let's let them enjoy a season with a good attendance because of the team our management has built.

I would still like another BP arm (like every other year) and our DH position is a hope (that one of Kirk/Bird runs away with it). Other than that, we should be pretty solid.

 

[Ale Brew]

Winker's a monster against righties. I wonder if we can still make a move for him, if he's on the block.

Doubtful. He was dealt to the Mariners.

 

[Discoverer]

I would argue that the Blue Jays have likely lost money the last few years. Before we have any arguments about Rogers, let's let them enjoy a season with a good attendance because of the team our management has built.

I would still like another BP arm (like every other year) and our DH position is a hope (that one of Kirk/Bird runs away with it). Other than that, we should be pretty solid.

Yeah, I'm not generally one to complain about ownership because I realize it could be so, so much worse, but I just don't think the richest ownership in baseball deserves kudos for being in the top ten in payrolls after several years in the bottom half. (And, for the record, the Rays new TV deal alone pays them $82 million per year while they average 57,000 viewers per game. The Jays average close to ten times that many viewers. I still believe Rogers makes a ton of money off the team with an empty stadium.)

 

[Bjindaho]

Yeah, I'm not generally one to complain about ownership because I realize it could be so, so much worse, but I just don't think the richest ownership in baseball deserves kudos for being in the top ten in payrolls after several years in the bottom half. (And, for the record, the Rays new TV deal alone pays them $82 million per year while they average 57,000 viewers per game. The Jays average close to ten times that many viewers. I still believe Rogers makes a ton of money off the team with an empty stadium.)

I don't disagree that the Jays TV rights should be worth 100-150M per year (if it were being fairly evaluated).

I am just saying that playing with no fans (then little fans) might have cost the team money.

This is the put up or shut up season IMO. If the fans show up this year (when they actually can), then I think the speculation that we might get close to top 5 might become that we get close to the luxury tax (with the caveat that there will always be a couple of teams that go over).