Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season VI: It's no longer the off-season, but the thread isn't done yet

[MS]

They also started the season last year with Tanner Roark as their #5. They should automatically receive a B grade for that.

I mean, yeah. Obviously if we're comparing it to last year's opening day roster the grade would be higher. But Manoah and Berrios weren't 'offseason moves'.

The team had an unlucky record last year, there are some players who will now be with the team for the whole season, and some young players should continue to improve. And that's all reason to be optimistic about an improved record for this season. But in terms of the offseason moves that were made and the players that went in and out, a C is a totally fair grade.

 

[Puckstuff]

For this offseason I'd give the Jays an A+ for asset management and a B+ overall. Chapman is half the yearly cost of Semien without the baggage of the end of a long term contract and he cost less in prospects then what it would have cost to get Ramirez. Gausman is close to Ray level although I would have been fine with just keeping Ray. Kikuchi is less term then Matz by a year. I like Garcia as he's projected to be a top 60 bullpen arm per fangraphs.

An A+ overall probably would have looked like getting another bullpen arm and/or Marte for me in addition to what we did. But overall I'm glad we didn't give up the farm. We're going to be just fine. I'd give us a B+ overall and I'm happy with this offseason.

 

[Bjindaho]

Did your team get an A ... or an F? MLB offseason grades for all 30 teams

From the front offices that scored big with major moves to the clubs that failed completely, we grade every franchise's hot stove haul.

www.espn.com.au

Reds B-, Red Sox get a C+, Angels get a C+ - all makes sense that these teams have a higher grade than the Jays.

And the teams that pretty much did nothing have the same grade as the Jays; Padres, Astros and Rays. Astros just lost an MVP candidate and replaced him with a prospect.

Reds lose Castellanos, Winkler, and Suarez and add Minor and Dunn to their rotation, they've replaced Suarez with Moustakas (similarly crap 3B), WInkler with Pham (downgrade with the caveat that Winkler had ridiculous platoon splits), and Castellanos with Moran (huge downgrade). They also strengthened their bench and BP. I think the feeling is that pitching got significantly better.

Red Sox lose Rodriguez and Renfroe and get Wacha and Paxton for the rotation depth and JBJ for the outfield (plus Story for 2B). They also signed Diekmann. If anything, I'd suggest that their grade is low.

Angels lost Cobb, but get Thor. Add Loup and Wade. Grade looks about right.

Blue Jays lost Semien, Ray, Matz. Semien is replaced by Chapman (who is likely a downgrade at 3B which we hope is mitigated by Biggio upgrading the other IF spot). Ray is replaced by Gausman (pitcher's park to hitter's park dampens his value a little so this is also a downgrade). Matz is replaced by Kikuchi (in a vaccuum, this is a straight downgrade and we are hoping that the Jays fix him). Add Garcia, and the re-balancing of Tapia for Grichuk and this is more or less an average offseason (with the possibliity of being better if we get more out of the guys acquired).

 

[MS]

For this offseason I'd give the Jays an A+ for asset management and a B+ overall. Chapman is half the yearly cost of Semien without the baggage of the end of a long term contract and he cost less in prospects then what it would have cost to get Ramirez. Gausman is close to Ray level although I would have been fine with just keeping Ray. Kikuchi is less term then Matz by a year. I like Garcia as he's projected to be a top 60 bullpen arm per fangraphs.

An A+ overall probably would have looked like getting another bullpen arm and/or Marte for me in addition to what we did. But overall I'm glad we didn't give up the farm. We're going to be just fine. I'd give us a B+ overall and I'm happy with this offseason.

I would agree that the overall plan is fine in the longer term and the bigger picture, but the extent to which fans are pooh-poohing and minimizing the impact of losing 14 WAR from a Cy Young winner and an MVP candidate is a bit astonishing to me. We lost 2 of the top 5 players in the AL from last season.

 

[phillipmike]

I mean, yeah. Obviously if we're comparing it to last year's opening day roster the grade would be higher. But Manoah and Berrios weren't 'offseason moves'.

The team had an unlucky record last year, there are some players who will now be with the team for the whole season, and some young players should continue to improve. And that's all reason to be optimistic about an improved record for this season. But in terms of the offseason moves that were made and the players that went in and out, a C is a totally fair grade.

Reds lose Castellanos, Winkler, and Suarez and add Minor and Dunn to their rotation, they've replaced Suarez with Moustakas (similarly crap 3B), WInkler with Pham (downgrade with the caveat that Winkler had ridiculous platoon splits), and Castellanos with Moran (huge downgrade). They also strengthened their bench and BP. I think the feeling is that pitching got significantly better.

Red Sox lose Rodriguez and Renfroe and get Wacha and Paxton for the rotation depth and JBJ for the outfield (plus Story for 2B). They also signed Diekmann. If anything, I'd suggest that their grade is low.

Angels lost Cobb, but get Thor. Add Loup and Wade. Grade looks about right.

Blue Jays lost Semien, Ray, Matz. Semien is replaced by Chapman (who is likely a downgrade at 3B which we hope is mitigated by Biggio upgrading the other IF spot). Ray is replaced by Gausman (pitcher's park to hitter's park dampens his value a little so this is also a downgrade). Matz is replaced by Kikuchi (in a vaccuum, this is a straight downgrade and we are hoping that the Jays fix him). Add Garcia, and the re-balancing of Tapia for Grichuk and this is more or less an average offseason (with the possibliity of being better if we get more out of the guys acquired).

If that were the way they were evaluating the off-season moves then the Dodgers shouldnt get A.

They lost 10 WAR in Schrezer, Seager, Kenley, and Pujols and pretty much only replaced it with Freeman and Heaney who has a projected WAR of 5.5.

And the Astros should get a F by losing Correra, Grienke, Garcia, Graveman, Raley which is close to 9 WAR and gained nothing by only re-signing Verlander who may not be ready for OD.

 

[Vector]

I would agree that the overall plan is fine in the longer term and the bigger picture, but the extent to which fans are pooh-poohing and minimizing the impact of losing 14 WAR from a Cy Young winner and an MVP candidate is a bit astonishing to me. We lost 2 of the top 5 players in the AL from last season.

Exactly. I think they made the most out of losing two premier players and have set themselves up for future success but losing Semien and Ray, even if they don't replicate last season, is still a huge blow. In order to even be equal their produciton, Gausman and Chapman have to be the same or better as last season and other parts of the Jays line-up (Biggio and Jansen are the best candidates) have to improve too.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Bjindaho]

If that were the way they were evaluating the off-season moves then the Dodgers shouldnt get A.

They lost 10 WAR in Schrezer, Seager, Kenley, and Pujols and pretty much only replaced it with Freeman and Heaney who has a projected WAR of 5.5.

And the Astros should get a F by losing Correra, Grienke, Garcia, Graveman, Raley which is close to 9 WAR and gained nothing by only re-signing Verlander who may not be ready for OD.

The author of the article was obviously too lazy to actually do research on Houston. I would agree that they need to be close to an F. Also the article was clearly written by a Dodgers fan, because while I would take Freeman for Seagar any day as a Dodger (keeping in mind that Turner plays SS and Muncy will play 2B), they did little to offset the elite SP and RP they lost for little replacement.

 

[habamillions]

For this offseason I'd give the Jays an A+ for asset management and a B+ overall. Chapman is half the yearly cost of Semien without the baggage of the end of a long term contract and he cost less in prospects then what it would have cost to get Ramirez. Gausman is close to Ray level although I would have been fine with just keeping Ray. Kikuchi is less term then Matz by a year. I like Garcia as he's projected to be a top 60 bullpen arm per fangraphs.

An A+ overall probably would have looked like getting another bullpen arm and/or Marte for me in addition to what we did. But overall I'm glad we didn't give up the farm. We're going to be just fine. I'd give us a B+ overall and I'm happy with this offseason.

I agree. The offseason waa fine. Gausman and ray are equal. Plus get a pick. Semien is better then chapman but the marcus contract is awful. Chapman was needed just for his defense alone. Plus get a another pick. Id prefer matz over kikuchi but im fine with it as a 5th starter.

 

[Bjindaho]

I just re-read Minny's. If extensions count, then Berrios automatically would put this above average.

Also, I would give Tampa a much lower grade. They get a massive boost for the Franco extension, but negatives over losing Wendle and McHugh. In context though, they got weaker.

 

[phillipmike]

2022 Positional Power Rankings: Catcher

We kick off our 2022 Positional Power Rankings by examining those who don the tools of ignorance.

blogs.fangraphs.com

4. Blue Jays

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Danny Jansen	371	.233	.318	.447	.329	2.2	-0.5	2.4	2.4
Alejandro Kirk	205	.265	.341	.468	.347	4.2	-0.3	-0.9	1.4
Reese McGuire	64	.236	.294	.372	.289	-1.7	-0.0	0.8	0.3
Total	640	.243	.323	.446	.331	4.7	-0.7	2.4	4.1

None of Toronto’s catchers can claim stardom by themselves, but together, they make for a desirable combination. Danny Jansen is arguably the most well-rounded of the trio, giving him the best argument for near full-time status; his 105 wRC+ in 2021 was his best since his rookie season. Meanwhile, Reese McGuire is the best pitch framer, and Alejandro Kirk almost certainly possesses the most offensive upside. Combine the three, and you get a J.T. Realmuto-esque reboot of Voltron.

The only unfortunate thing is that their individual skill sets don’t really allow the Jays to fully exploit rostering three players who could otherwise be legitimate starters. The free substitutions in football and basketball are more conducive to leveraging highly specialized players, and it makes me wonder if Toronto should shop at least one of their backstops as part of a package to address a bigger need elsewhere.

That said, having three catchers does give the Jays a considerably higher floor at the position than the other elite teams outside of the Dodgers. Perhaps they’ll eventually find a son of a former major leaguer to start behind the plate, but for now, there’s no reason to grumble.

 

[phillipmike]

The author of the article was obviously too lazy to actually do research on Houston. I would agree that they need to be close to an F. Also the article was clearly written by a Dodgers fan, because while I would take Freeman for Seagar any day as a Dodger (keeping in mind that Turner plays SS and Muncy will play 2B), they did little to offset the elite SP and RP they lost for little replacement.

Yeah i just think whoever did the evaluation didn't have a consistent thought process. If Jays get a C for replacing Ray, Semien, and Matz with Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi, would they get an A+ for re-signing Ray, Semien and Matz? I highly doubt it.

2021 2B and 3B Stats:
2021 Ray, Semien and Matz: 12.7 fWAR
2021 Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi: 9.3 fWAR

Projection:
2022 Ray, Semien and Matz: 10.5 fWAR
2022 Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi: 8.6 fWAR

Also they mention Kikuchi and Gausman going from "pitcher-friendly home parks to the AL East ". Then shouldnt Chapman get a bump by going from "pitcher-friendly home parks to the AL East" and should Semien get knocked for the reverse?

I also see the Chapman's defense at a more important position will benefit this team more. His elite defense will help Ryu and Kikuchi get outs which will increase their WAR as well. Perhaps increase Vladdy's WAR at 1B too.

2021 Jays Stats:
2B: 118 wRC+ and 10.9 DEF Rating
3B: 86 wRC+ and 4.4 DEF Rating
Total: 102 wRC+ and 15.3 DEF Rating

2022 Chapman and Biggio/Espinal Stats:
Biggio/Espinal: 88 wRC+ and 3.8 DEF Rating
Chapman: 109 wRC+ and 13.6 DEF Rating
Total: 99 wRC+ and 17.4 DEF Rating

I have a hard time believing both Biggio and Espinal's bats would be below average at 88 wRC+ when they were a combined 100 wRC+ last year. And Chapman wouldn't substantially get better coming to the AL East as they project him for his 2nd worst season of his career at 109 wRC+. But when you take the dreary offensive projections at 2B and 3B, the 2022 team is very close to the 2021 team in wRC+ and better in in DEF Rating. To me at the very least 2022 will be similar to 2021 but 2022 has more potential with Chapman being healthy in the AL East, Biggio healthy back at his position and both Espinal and Biggio young with potential to do better.

I have a hard time also believing Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi will be worse than last year but you consider that the 2021 trio cost $334M and 16 years commitment vs the new 2022 trio cost $171M over 10 years of commitment, minus 4 prospects but you gain 2 picks, i think the Jays moves were better. The Jays got 3 similar players at half the price. Only real loss is potentially Ray for Gausman because there is no way im giving Semien 7 years and close to $200M to play 2B or Matz 4 years. Chapman and Kikuchi were better investments than Semien and Matz. Ray vs Gausman is a toss up (lean towards Ray) but its a slam dunk win for Gausman if Ray isnt vaccinated and cant play in Canada. There is also rumors Matz wasnt vaccinated either. So to spend twice the amount of money on those players and not have them play 81+ games for you is a F grade.

 

[Bjindaho]

Yeah i just think whoever did the evaluation didn't have a consistent thought process. If Jays get a C for replacing Ray, Semien, and Matz with Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi, would they get an A+ for re-signing Ray, Semien and Matz? I highly doubt it.

2021 Stats:
2021 Ray, Semien and Matz: 12.7 fWAR
2021 Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi: 9.3 fWAR

Projection:
2022 Ray, Semien and Matz: 10.5 fWAR
2022 Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi: 8.6 fWAR

Also they mention Kikuchi and Gausman going from "pitcher-friendly home parks to the AL East ". Then shouldnt Chapman get a bump by going from "pitcher-friendly home parks to the AL East" and should Semien get knocked for the reverse?

I have a hard time believing Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi will be worse than last year but you consider that the 2021 trio cost $334M and 16 years commitment vs the new 2022 trio cost $171M over 10 years of commitment, minus 4 prospects but you gain 2 picks, i think the Jays moves were better. The Jays got 3 similar players at half the price. Only real loss is potentially Ray for Gausman because there is no way im giving Semien 7 years and close to $200M to play 2B or Matz 4 years. Chapman and Kikuchi were better investments than Semien and Matz. Ray vs Gausman is a toss up (lean towards Ray) but its a slam dunk win for Gausman if Ray isnt vaccinated and cant play in Canada. There is also rumors Matz wasnt vaccinated either. So to spend twice the amount of money on those players and not have them play 81+ games for you is a F grade.

I think you are giving ESPN too much credit lol

 

[phillipmike]

I think you are giving ESPN too much credit lol

Well they did hire Kiley McDaniel's from FG, you would think they ask him how to use FG before writing an article like this.

 

[Bjindaho]

Well they did hire Kiley McDaniel's from FG, you would think they ask him how to use FG before writing an article like this.

But Kiley didn't write it. If he had, it probably would have been much better (and not a mish-mash of stats and thoughts).

 

[Bjindaho]

Of note, they also wrote a wonderful article about how greatly improved NYY's D is (completely ignoring that Donaldson was the worst 3B in baseball last year by a country mile) and Gio is a very good defensive 3B, Rizzo has fallen off a cliff defensively to the point of being about equal to Voit), Kiner-Falefa is a dramatic upgrade over Torres, but removes LeMahieu who is also a very good 2B. Essentially, their infield might be worse when all is said and done barring a bunch of guys improving for no reason at all.

 

[Puckstuff]

I would agree that the overall plan is fine in the longer term and the bigger picture, but the extent to which fans are pooh-poohing and minimizing the impact of losing 14 WAR from a Cy Young winner and an MVP candidate is a bit astonishing to me. We lost 2 of the top 5 players in the AL from last season.

Replacing Semien and Ray at their price last year was an impossible task even by bringing back Semien and Ray. It's crazy to think we bought 14 WAR last year for only 26 million, no long term commitments and no prospect capital required. The return was ridiculous. If we're comparing this offseason to last offseason, it's near impossible to buy that many wins at that price again without giving up prospects. I think a good way to grade this offseason is by grading each move individually.

Chapman: A+ - Brought in a top 10 3B and a guy who could be top 5 3B again without giving up a top 3 prospect.
Garcia: A - Great value move for a reliever. A guy who helps us in the 6th-8th inning.
Gausman: B+ - I think I would have preferred Ray but it's really hard to know if Ray wanted to stay in Canada and I don't believe any reports he would have signed, but who know's. Gausman is an innings eater and top of the rotation starter.
Kikuchi: B - An adequate replacement for Matz and he has great stuff.

Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi are about 2 war shy of the projected total of Semien, Ray, Matz and we gave up far less $$ and commitment.

Biggio at 2B, Kirk, Berrios and Manoah for a full year and an improved bullpen not giving up as many leads will make up the difference in what we lost.

I would have liked to be bringing in 6-7 news guys vs 4 (not counting the depth signings here) but this was a much shorter offseason and we haven't cost our selves any opportunity and we still have a good farm to make something happen. We could theoretically still bring in another reliver or two and still get an impact player at some point during the season.

I think I have us around 91-92 wins and some smart in-season moves could get us to 93-94+.

 

[MS]

Replacing Semien and Ray at their price last year was an impossible task even by bringing back Semien and Ray. It's crazy to think we bought 14 WAR last year for only 26 million, no long term commitments and no prospect capital required. The return was ridiculous. If we're comparing this offseason to last offseason, it's near impossible to buy that many wins at that price again without giving up prospects. I think a good way to grade this offseason is by grading each move individually.

Chapman: A+ - Brought in a top 10 3B and a guy who could be top 5 3B again without giving up a top 3 prospect.
Garcia: A - Great value move for a reliever. A guy who helps us in the 6th-8th inning.
Gausman: B+ - I think I would have preferred Ray but it's really hard to know if Ray wanted to stay in Canada and I don't believe any reports he would have signed, but who know's. Gausman is an innings eater and top of the rotation starter.
Kikuchi: B - An adequate replacement for Matz and he has great stuff.

Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi are about 2 war shy of the projected total of Semien, Ray, Matz and we gave up far less $$ and commitment.

Kirk, Biggio at 2B, Berrios and Manoah for a full year and an improved bullpen not giving up as many leads will make up the difference in what we lost.

I would have liked to be bringing in 6-7 news guys vs 4 (not counting the depth signings here) but this was a much shorter offseason and we haven't cost our selves any opportunity and we still have a good farm to make something happen. We could theoretically still bring in another reliver or two and still get an impact player at some point during the season.

I think I have us around 91-92 wins and some smart in-season moves could get us to 93-94+.

Like I said, there are lots of reasons to think this team could improve. And I totally understand why they let Semien go and love the Chapman acquisition. I would have preferred Ray to Gausman but Gausman should be a fine addition.

But at the end of the day, 2 of the top 5 players in the AL from last year are gone. That's a massive hit. We lost 14 WAR off the roster and we'd be absolutely delighted to get 9-10 WAR from the two guys replacing them. And I can see where, because of that, an average grade for the offseason is fair.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Zanks]

Like I said, there are lots of reasons to think this team could improve. And I totally understand why they let Semien go and love the Chapman acquisition. I would have preferred Ray to Gausman but Gausman should be a fine addition.

But at the end of the day, 2 of the top 5 players in the AL from last year are gone. That's a massive hit. We lost 14 WAR off the roster and we'd be absolutely delighted to get 9-10 WAR from the two guys replacing them. And I can see where, because of that, an average grade for the offseason is fair.

Ya, but we were the best team in baseball by the end of the year. If we merely brought the gang back and added a reliever and a lefty bat, we would call it a very successful offseason. If you maintain the best team in baseball, you should get an A for the offseason.

If you have two Top 5 players, and a good no.5 starter hit FA, well you need to plug those very big holes to maintain that that 'best in baseball' standard.

We added a premier 3b in Chapman, allowing us to play Biggio at 2nd base where he was a positive player. Re-balancing the infield might provide better overall value (defensively and offensively) between the two positions.

We added Gausman, who was in the Cy Young conversation last year. He is in the same tier as Ray. Who knows what plays out, but this isn't a massive step back on paper.

Kikuchi over Matz is about upside IMO, if he flames out you still have Pearson to slot in. I think it's a really good gamble. Just like I thought Ray was a great signing the year before.

Then we added a reliable reliever in Garcia, and traded Randal for a more appropriate bench player (lefty with speed). I would have kept Chuck, but the logic makes sense.

Now consider we got 2 compensation picks back, and it's a really big win IMO.

A C grade doesn't do our offseason justice. It was logical and comprehensive. That's an A from me.

 

[Woodman19]

Idc what others think and when we do what our talent says we can do let them go through mental gymnastics to explain it to themselves.

 

[Bjindaho]

Ya, but we were the best team in baseball by the end of the year. If we merely brought the gang back and added a reliever and a lefty bat, we would call it a very successful offseason. If you maintain the best team in baseball, you should get an A for the offseason.

If you have two Top 5 players, and a good no.5 starter hit FA, well you need to plug those very big holes to maintain that that 'best in baseball' standard.

We added a premier 3b in Chapman, allowing us to play Biggio at 2nd base where he was a positive player. Re-balancing the infield might provide better overall value (defensively and offensively) between the two positions.

We added Gausman, who was in the Cy Young conversation last year. He is in the same tier as Ray. Who knows what plays out, but this isn't a massive step back on paper.

Kikuchi over Matz is about upside IMO, if he flames out you still have Pearson to slot in. I think it's a really good gamble. Just like I thought Ray was a great signing the year before.

Then we added a reliable reliever in Garcia, and traded Randal for a more appropriate bench player (lefty with speed). I would have kept Chuck, but the logic makes sense.

Now consider we got 2 compensation picks back, and it's a really big win IMO.

A C grade doesn't do our offseason justice. It was logical and comprehensive. That's an A from me.

I disagree. Right now, our lineup still requires that 2 catchers play (or Bird) to have a competent DH.

An A for me would resolve the catcher jam and add a back end reliever.

If Bird were ever to become what NYY thought they had, this would instantly become an A though.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Chapman was my top choice at 3rd, and I think Vlads season at 1st is going to be incredible as a result.

 

[Cloned]

I disagree. Right now, our lineup still requires that 2 catchers play (or Bird) to have a competent DH.

An A for me would resolve the catcher jam and add a back end reliever.

If Bird were ever to become what NYY thought they had, this would instantly become an A though.

It’d make up for Urshela at least.

 

[Discoverer]

I disagree. Right now, our lineup still requires that 2 catchers play (or Bird) to have a competent DH.

An A for me would resolve the catcher jam and add a back end reliever.

If Bird were ever to become what NYY thought they had, this would instantly become an A though.

When one of them can hit the way Kirk can, I don't have much concern about having a catcher DH.

Even if it's just the two of them on the roster, having them both play is worth it for the small risk that Jansen gets hurt and you lose the DH for a few innings.