Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season V: Baseball's back and so are blockbusters (Jays send 4 prospects to A's for 3B Matt Chapman)

[Discoverer]

No it's the everyday one other than Hernandez

Pfft, what am I supposed to do, read the lineup properly or something?

 

[kb]

It's cute that the Jays are taking pity on them out by having McGuire DH.

 

[rojac]

And the catcher spot.

You don't think Danny Jansen is going to be the everyday catcher? Ah, wait a minute, I bet you saw Reese in the line-up and thought he was catching. He's DHing.

 

[Emerica]

 

[habamillions]

Basically buys out the arbitration years

 

[Discoverer]

Not exciting or anything since they didn't pay for any free agent years, but that makes perfect sense since it basically provides both sides with some cost certainty and insurance following a down year offensively for Chapman.

 

[Morgs]

And the catcher spot.

As Danny's 2nd biggest fan, I can't believe you don't think he'll play C this season

 

[Bjindaho]

Well, that idea didn't last long, ha.

2.5M if he makes it

 

[phillipmike]

Kirk for Clase, who says no?

I say no for sure.

Steamers has Clase projected for 1.1 fWAR. Kirk is projected for 2.1 fWAR in 80 games. If Kirk plays a full season that might be a 4+ fWAR catcher for a reliever that may average 1-2 fWAR and top out at 3 fWAR. The volatility with relievers is too much of a concerns for me to deal Kirk. Would rather go after someone like Kimbrel.

I know you have to give to get in terms of the Ramirez deal but even trading Kirk is hard for me. Kirk is 23 and can be kept for 5 more years. So far if you extrapolate his production across 162 games you get 2.7 fWAR, thats top 10 all time in Jays history for catchers and everyone on that list is 31 and older. Kirk could average 3-4+ fWAR a season in his prime making league minimum. I would trade him for 3 years of Ramirez, but 2 would be tough.

In a perfect world Cleveland keeps him and we grab him at the deadline for prospects and other major league players who reestablished value; maybe Biggio, Jansen, Gurriel, Pearson and the prospects are Groshans, Lopez, Klofeenstein, Jimenez, etc. Have to think 1.5 years of Ramirez would cost less. Or by then maybe Biggio and Espinal establish their value and you roll with what you have. I like Ramirez a lot but i feel like he is a luxury at this point and Cleveland will want Orelvis and Kirk, and thatbis a price im not willing to pay.

 

[phillipmike]

Blue Jays Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

Here is the full write up;

Here are Toronto's 2022 Top 30 prospects

The Blue Jays have turned into a major contender through various uses of their Minor League system. Homegrown talents like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah have become the backbone of a strong Major League roster. Major trade additions José Berríos and most recently Matt...

www.mlb.com

The Blue Jays have turned into a major contender through various uses of their Minor League system. Homegrown talents like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah have become the backbone of a strong Major League roster. Major trade additions José Berríos and most recently Matt Chapman were acquired for prospects from the farm.

The graduations and departures leave Toronto’s system in a weaker place (though for the best of reasons), but there’s still a lot to like about the flock of Jays fighting for places up north, especially at the top of the system.

Top prospect Gabriel Moreno looks like a potential All-Star catcher coming off a breakout 2021 in which he hit .373/.441/.651 with eight homers over 37 games at Double-A New Hampshire. A broken thumb cut that run short, but it was enough to impress scouts and evaluators of all types. Now, the 22-year-old backstop projects for a plus hit tool, above-average power and 55-grade defense behind the plate, making him a well-rounded threat and one who’s close to usurping Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk in Toronto.

If there’s a theme moving down the list, it centers around multi-positional infielders. Moreno’s fellow Top 100 prospects Orelvis Martinez and Jordan Groshans began their careers as shortstops but have already gotten exposure to third base, where there was a larger organizational need before the Chapman trade. Otto Lopez, Leo Jimenez, Miguel Hiraldo and Samad Taylor are all Top 16 prospects and primary infielders who have moved around the dirt (and the outfield in the case of Taylor) to find a potential spot north of the border.

On the pitching side, Gunnar Hoglund’s move to Oakland means fellow 2021 pick Ricky Tiedemann takes the mantle as the organization’s top prospect on the mound. Interestingly, he is the only left-hander ranked among the Jays’ Top 30 with 13 right-handers, led by Sem Robberse, making up the rest of the pitching contingent.

Here's a look at the Blue Jays' top prospects:
1. Gabriel Moreno, C (MLB No. 7)
2. Orelvis Martinez, SS/3B (MLB No. 38)
3. Jordan Groshans, SS/3B (MLB No. 80)
4. Otto Lopez, 2B/OF/SS
5. Leo Jimenez, SS/2BMets Top Prospects
Complete Top 30 list »

Biggest jump/fall

Here are the players whose ranks changed the most from the 2021 preseason list to the 2022 preseason list.

Jump: Gabriel Moreno, C (2021: 8 | 2022: 1)
Within the Jays’ specific Top 30, Moreno’s climb from No. 8 to the top of the list might not seem like a significant jump, or at least significant enough for this spot. But consider that he wasn’t even a Top 100 prospect and now he sits at No. 7 overall, and yes, you can see where the jump comes. Moreno has become the best catching prospect in baseball not named Adley with an impressive blend of hitting talent and athleticism behind the plate. He hasn’t arrived yet, but barring another freak injury, he should be Toronto’s catcher of the present and future quite soon.

Fall: Eric Pardinho, RHP (2021: 15 | 2022: NR)
Injuries have taken their toll on the Brazil native. Once considered one of the most interesting arms in the system after he signed in July 2017, Pardinho has yet to crack above 50 innings in a single Minor League season. He most recently underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2020 and was expected to return last season, but setbacks meant he only managed two Florida Complex League starts. There’s potential for a four-pitch mix and good control from the right-hander, and Pardinho is still only 21. But the longer he goes without a true full season, the farther his stock drops.

Best tools

Players are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale for future tools -- 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average. Players in parentheses have the same grade.

Hit: 60 -- Gabriel Moreno (Leo Jimenez)
Power: 60 -- Orelvis Martinez
Run: 80 -- Dasan Brown
Arm: 60 -- Jordan Groshans (Orelvis Martinez)
Defense: 60 -- Rikelvin De Castro (Dasan Brown)
Fastball: 70 -- Yosver Zulueta
Curveball: 55 -- Sem Robberse (C.J. Van Eyk)
Slider: 55 -- Hayden Juenger (Adam Kloffenstein, Bowden Francis, Hagen Danner, Irv Carter, Dahian Santos)
Changeup: 65 -- Adrian Hernandez
Other: 60 -- Chad Dallas, cutter
Control: 55 -- Chad Dallas

Could be a big year for Brown , De Castro, Zulueta, Robberse, Juenger, Carter, Santos, Hernandez and Dallas.

 

[Bjindaho]

I say no for sure.

Steamers has Clase projected for 1.1 fWAR. Kirk is projected for 2.1 fWAR in 80 games. If Kirk plays a full season that might be a 4+ fWAR catcher for a reliever that may average 1-2 fWAR and top out at 3 fWAR. The volatility with relievers is too much of a concerns for me to deal Kirk. Would rather go after someone like Kimbrel.

I know you have to give to get in terms of the Ramirez deal but even trading Kirk is hard for me. Kirk is 23 and can be kept for 5 more years. So far if you extrapolate his production across 162 games you get 2.7 fWAR, thats top 10 all time in Jays history for catchers and everyone on that list is 31 and older. Kirk could average 3-4+ fWAR a season in his prime making league minimum. I would trade him for 3 years of Ramirez, but 2 would be tough.

In a perfect world Cleveland keeps him and we grab him at the deadline for prospects and other major league players who reestablished value; maybe Biggio, Jansen, Gurriel, Pearson and the prospects are Groshans, Lopez, Klofeenstein, Jimenez, etc. Have to think 1.5 years of Ramirez would cost less. Or by then maybe Biggio and Espinal establish their value and you roll with what you have. I like Ramirez a lot but i feel like he is a luxury at this point and Cleveland will want Orelvis and Kirk, and thatbis a price im not willing to pay.

Kimbrel is projected for less WAR on a much bigger salary though. I was thinking Clase because he is coming off a 2.2WAR season (his first full one) and looks like a candidate to trend up (he's a flamethrower)

 

[phillipmike]

11 biggest offseason surprises, ranked

Clayton Kershaw is back with the Dodgers. OK, thus concludes our discussion of Hot Stove deals that DID NOT surprise us. Now, let’s talk about some of the stuff that did. We publish a list like this every winter. The fact that we’re publishing this year’s list in the second

www.mlb.com

11. The Blue Jays let Robbie Ray walk … but signed Kevin Gausman
For the second straight year, a reigning Cy Young winner left his team in free agency. But when 2020 NL Cy Young Trevor Bauer left the Reds for the Dodgers, it was pretty straightforward: The Dodgers were willing to fork over big money for Bauer, while the Reds weren’t.
Ray’s departure from Toronto after his 2021 breakout is more nuanced. In late November, he signed a five-year, $115 million contract with the Mariners -- a deal that was almost identical to the five years and $110 million the Blue Jays committed to Kevin Gausman less than a day earlier.
A $5 million difference spread over five years is a relative pittance. So this ultimately came down to the Blue Jays’ desire to land Gausman -- a player they had targeted a couple times previously -- exceeding their desire to retain their first Cy winner since Roy Halladay in 2003 (though it’s worth factoring in that they also received Draft-pick compensation for Ray signing elsewhere). It will be interesting to compare the performances of Ray and Gausman going forward ... and even more interesting if Seattle and Toronto wind up meeting each other in October.

 

[BertCorbeau]

That's really nice. 3 years of Chapman now after what they gave up in the trade is really a good deal.

Gets Chapman's prime years without risking decline into his 30's, especially with his injury history. Gives Chapman some insurance in case he does get banged up.

 

[habamillions]

That's really nice. 3 years of Chapman now after what they gave up in the trade is really a good deal.

Gets Chapman's prime years without risking decline into his 30's, especially with his injury history. Gives Chapman some insurance in case he does get banged up.

Its still only this year and next year. It just eliminates the arbitration years

 

[djdev]

this offense is terrifying lol

 

[Deebo]

That's really nice. 3 years of Chapman now after what they gave up in the trade is really a good deal.

Gets Chapman's prime years without risking decline into his 30's, especially with his injury history. Gives Chapman some insurance in case he does get banged up.

They only have 2 years, he wasn't under contract for 2022 yet:

 

[Anthrax442]

That's really nice. 3 years of Chapman now after what they gave up in the trade is really a good deal.

Gets Chapman's prime years without risking decline into his 30's, especially with his injury history. Gives Chapman some insurance in case he does get banged up.

Very nice piece of biz. Hockey should learn from this. not every deal has to be max years.

 

[phillipmike]

Kimbrel is projected for less WAR on a much bigger salary though. I was thinking Clase because he is coming off a 2.2WAR season (his first full one) and looks like a candidate to trend up (he's a flamethrower)

Kimbrel is a risk but since Chicago is looking for a CF, wonder if they would be interested in Grichuk for Kimbrel.

I like Clase a lot too, just not at the expense of Kirk. I just dont like investing in relief arms when they are so volatile.

I think Kirk's bat is the real deal and we havent seen his potential.

I know im putting a lot of pressure on him but Kirk is one of 10 players in the last 30 years to have a BB:K rate of 0.75 or higher with a wRC+ above 100 at the age of 22 or younger;

Luiz Arraez
Jason Kendall
Juan Soto
Joe Mauer
Rafael Furcal
Albert Pujols
John Olerud
Logan Morrison
Ken Griffey Jr.
Alejandro Kirk

Other guys below him include; Brian McCann, Eric Chavez, Adam Dunn, Bryce Harper, and Andrew McCutchen. Of course you can get someone who trends downwards like Arraez but if Kirk can stay on the field and tap into his power, we may see something special.

 

[Anthrax442]

This park looks very nice. I was gonna take a trip down 2 years ago when we got totally screwed by covid. Maybe next year..

 

[djdev]

yankees have to be scared of this team lol

 

[Bjindaho]

Montgomery getting warmed up for the regular season

 

[Bjindaho]

yankees have to be scared of this team lol

There's a reason why I'd like a lefty with some nice vs RHP splits. Last year vs LHP, all of Springer, Bichette, Guerrero were above 150wRC+ and Teo was above 200.

 

[djdev]

chapman didnt get a hit but his swing looks beautiful

 

[Bjindaho]

That's why I'm glad that Gausman's first start was a simulated game.

Building up by having your starter throw 27 pitches (25 from the stretch) and have no ease to any of start 1 is not optimal.

 

[djdev]

i wish biggio played grichuks position