Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt III | Winter meetings are over. Still waiting for stuff to happen

[Varcus]

It would be pretty dumb to not spend the money on Bauer given he's a guy who looks for 1 year deals. If we walked away this off-season with Bauer and Paxton on one year contracts and didnt do much else, I'd be happy. That would be one of the best rotations in baseball.

I'd like Bauer, Odorizzi, and jbj. Paxton I worry about his health.

 

[ER89]

Id love to get JT, then trade danny + for lindor or snell, then depending on who you get try and sign bauer or DJ.

Then I woke up.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I'd like Bauer, Odorizzi, and jbj. Paxton I worry about his health.

Paxton's health is certainly a concern but even then, you'd practically have 2 aces and Pearson as your #3. If your biggest concern in your rotation is your #4 starter, Paxton, who's good enough to be a #2 when healthy, you're doing alright.

 

[Varcus]

Paxton's health is certainly a concern but even then, you'd practically have 2 aces and Pearson as your #3. If your biggest concern in your rotation is your #4 starter, Paxton, who's good enough to be a #2 when healthy, you're doing alright.

health is a pretty big deal though. If he gives 5 to 10 games. It then means our number 6 or 7th man in the rotation gets the rest of the starts.

Paxton I get the upside. I know how enticing that can be. He just can’t stay healthy. It is a high upside signing though. If he could give 25 to 30 starts we would be laughing.

 

[BlueForever75]

health is a pretty big deal though. If he gives 5 to 10 games. It then means our number 6 or 7th man in the rotation gets the rest of the starts.

Paxton I get the upside. I know how enticing that can be. He just can’t stay healthy. It is a high upside signing though. If he could give 25 to 30 starts we would be laughing.

Paxton shouldnt be the top tier pitcher we are all asking for. He should be a by-low option on a one year deal to battle the likes of Roark and Stripling for the 5th slot in the rotation. Yes he has the potential to pitch higher in the rotation but with his injury concerns and lack of productivity the past couple of year, he's signed as potential not an ace.

If that is what the Jays are targeting as a top end of rotation starter, then we mine as well pack it in.

 

[Leafin]

The risk you take with Paxton is offset by his contract. If always healthy Paxton would be looking at elite term and dollars. We might be able to get him for a 2 year deal at a decent dollar figure.

there are a few guys that are in buy low situations that could be decent bets: Archer, Quintana, Kluber, Odorizzi.

add in a Sugano and you might be able to fill in a solid group of competent starting pitchers.

could even bring back Walker.

 

[Varcus]

Paxton shouldnt be the top tier pitcher we are all asking for. He should be a by-low option on a one year deal to battle the likes of Roark and Stripling for the 5th slot in the rotation. Yes he has the potential to pitch higher in the rotation but with his injury concerns and lack of productivity the past couple of year, he's signed as potential not an ace.

If that is what the Jays are targeting as a top end of rotation starter, then we mine as well pack it in.

I get it. But even the guy who wanted him signed as our #4 see the health risk. He just likes his potential as a higher end starter even with the health risk

 

[BlueForever75]

I get it. But even the guy who wanted him signed as our #4 see the health risk. He just likes his potential as a higher end starter even with the health risk

Agreed. But successful teams acquire higher market players and supplement the team with a Paxton acquisition as a lottery ticket. Not the other way around.

 

[Zanks]

Agreed. But successful teams acquire higher market players and supplement the team with a Paxton acquisition as a lottery ticket. Not the other way around.

Have we not already done that with Ryu?

Did the Yankee's do better (Yankees being the successful team that acquired Paxton a couple years back)?

Comparison 2019:
Tanaka < Ryu
Severino > Pearson
Paxton = Paxton
Happ = Ray/Stripling
German = Thorton
Sabathia < Roark

The 2019 Yankees didn't even have Severino as he was injured.
That staff made the playoffs.

I think our rotation could be very good with JUST a Paxton signing. It's already moderately well insulated with Stripling, Thorton and Roark.

Nice to get Paxton + someone good, agreed on that front.

 

[Varcus]

Agreed. But successful teams acquire higher market players and supplement the team with a Paxton acquisition as a lottery ticket. Not the other way around.

If I could spend freely and bring him in as a #6 with a chance for him to move up. I agree that is good for everyone involved.

To bring him in as a #4 his health scares me to much. I would bring in Odorizzi to fill that role.

 

[Bjindaho]

If I could spend freely and bring him in as a #6 with a chance for him to move up. I agree that is good for everyone involved.

To bring him in as a #4 his health scares me to much. I would bring in Odorizzi to fill that role.

Paxton has been borderline ace his whole career. Other than 2019, he's had a higher fWAR in every season.

Here's the last 3 seasons plus 2020 WAR

Major League Leaderboards » 2020 » Pitchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

He's 18th overall

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Bringing Paxton in as your number 6 is nuts. If he is healthy he objectively finds a spot in the 5 man rotation....because he is really good. If he isn't healthy we pitch someone else. At no point does he become the Jays 6th option. If you can get him on a 2 year deal I am all over it.

 

[Varcus]

Paxton has been borderline ace his whole career. Other than 2019, he's had a higher fWAR in every season.

Here's the last 3 seasons plus 2020 WAR

Major League Leaderboards » 2020 » Pitchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

He's 18th overall

He's also 32 and has injury issues every season. I understand his potential and his effectiveness. I just value his injury history differently then you do

Also there is a good chance we will see a 6 man rotation next year atleast to start the year. So if he pitches great win for us. If not it gives us more depth which is never a bad thing.

 

[Bjindaho]

He's also 32 and has injury issues every season. I understand his potential and his effectiveness. I just value his injury history differently then you do

Also there is a good chance we will see a 6 man rotation next year atleast to start the year. So if he pitches great win for us. If not it gives us more depth which is never a bad thing.

With injuries, he's still performed.

If we can get him for 15 or so for two years, I'd be happy.

 

[Discoverer]

If I could spend freely and bring him in as a #6 with a chance for him to move up. I agree that is good for everyone involved.

To bring him in as a #4 his health scares me to much. I would bring in Odorizzi to fill that role.

Bringing him in for any role is perfectly fine for me as long as there's a contingency plan in place to have someone decent eat up his innings if he's hurt.

It's basically the same way I feel about Ray, just substitute "hurt" out for "terrible".

 

[BlueForever75]

Have we not already done that with Ryu?

Did the Yankee's do better (Yankees being the successful team that acquired Paxton a couple years back)?

Comparison 2019:
Tanaka < Ryu
Severino > Pearson
Paxton = Paxton
Happ = Ray/Stripling
German = Thorton
Sabathia < Roark

The 2019 Yankees didn't even have Severino as he was injured.
That staff made the playoffs.

I think our rotation could be very good with JUST a Paxton signing. It's already moderately well insulated with Stripling, Thorton and Roark.

Nice to get Paxton + someone good, agreed on that front.

Ultimately you want your rotation to be better then the Yankees in 2019. Sorry to break it to everyone, but Pearson hasnt proven nothing yet, so he's the wildcard in all of this. Ray is a wildcard as well. The only sure thing in our rotation is Ryu. You need at least 2 sure arms in your rotation. To me bringing in Paxton isnt a sure thing. Yes there is potential for it to go really well, but like Ray and Pearson its a wildcard.

Bring me an arm like Snell, Darvish, or Gray, or Carrasco, or Tanaka, or even Bauer should I say. Then you have the makings of a great rotation with a solid 1-2 punch at the top. 3-5 with Pearson, Ray, Paxton, Stripling, Roark and Thornton fighting it out. Thats a winning teams rotation. And that is what we should be aiming for.

It all depends which elite free agent(s) come to Toronto. If one or 2 come over it opens a lot of opportunities to trade for a top of rotation pitcher. This is why I am wanting to sign JT Realmuto and LeMathieu. Opens so many possibilities for trades and then signing someone like Paxton.

 

[Varcus]

With injuries, he's still performed.

If we can get him for 15 or so for two years, I'd be happy.

yes he has. His stat line is very nice. He is supposed to throw for teams to isn’t he?

 

[Bjindaho]

Also, any scenario we get Paxton is a Paxton and someone.

The other guy is hopefully one of:
Bauer
Carrasco
Snell
Musgrove
Tanaka
Odorizzi

Or someone in a similar situation

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

Game-Used or Autographed All auctions | Toronto Blue Jays Auctions

Guys can get a baby blue game worn jersey.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

Blue Jays must be pushing hard for him. Maybe this is the first sneak peak of him in his new colours!

No mention of BJs in his top 5

 

[Bjindaho]

No mention of BJs in his top 5

Hm

Edit: top 5 based on social media

The dude is smart which is part of the why

 

[GreytWun]

I wouldn’t pay attention to anything Bauer says. He is just having fun and trolling fanbases.

 

[phillipmike]

A Jays fan from South Korea's take on Kim:

I am a fan of Blue Jays living in South Korea and I want to talk about my opinion about Ha-Seong Kim.

I am not good at English, so I hope you understand me

The MLB industry's perception of Ha-seong Kim is very good and fans from various teams want him, but frankly, it's a little surprising. Most MLB fans have never seen Kim’s actual play, have they?
because until now, the perception of Asian position players has not been very good, and there have been no players who have actually had such good grades.

I can remember Shin-soo Choo, Ichiro, Matsui Hideki. Among them, Choo did not come from other leagues such as KBO, but went to the Minor league immediately after graduating from high school.
Some Korean fans mention Jung-ho Kang, but it was too short.

As a result, it is very difficult for Asian position players to succeed, and there are no success stories of position players from the KBO. Look at the NPB stars Tsutsugo and Akiyama Who went to MLB this year.

Of course, Kim has some differences from previous cases: young, good K/BB ratio, versatility in position

But there are a few factors that I think cannot be ignored

1. Kim’s record against foreigner employments is bad. Most of them are from AAA or were former Big leaguers

16 - 126PA 1HR 6BB 24K .275/ .310/ .400 OPS.710
17 - 146PA 2HR 11BB 20K .282/ .342/ .412 OPS.754
18 - 161PA 5HR 15BB 22K .229/ .304/ .347 OPS.651
19 - 152PA 7HR 14BB 23K .303/ .375/ .515 OPS.890
20 - 154PA 4HR 10BB 19K .261/ .312/ .401 OPS.713

2. Can He cope with a MLB fastball? The question is raised not only for Kim but also for all players hoping to make the move from KBO to MLB.

Average fastball velocity by league.
MLB - 93.2mph
NPB - 89.2mph
KBO - 88.6mph

There are fewer than ten South Korean players in the KBO, including relief pitchers, who can throw more than 95mph.

Most players who throw an average of 93mph or more are foreigner employments and the first section points to this problems

It was a short period of time, but the reasons of Jung-ho Kang’s good performance and Shin-soo Choo’s long-term survival in MLB were all fastball coping

BA says Kim will adjust well to Major League speed, but I don't know why they say that, although they are much more experts than I am.

3. Comparison with Kang
Kang is a former shortstop for the Heroes before Kim. So, Kim is always compared to Kang among Koreans. Of course Kim's grades are good, but Kang destroyed KBO before coming to MLB.
And many good hitters from KBO failed in MLB, but Kang was the only one to cope with fastball and made a good grade in MLB for a short time

4. Kim’s Defense
I can understand fastball coping. He's young and can adapt as well as BA says. Kim could be like Kang, right?
However, I don't understand why Kim's defense capability is so high in BA and fangraphs etc.

Kim received GG three times. However, the KBO's GG does not mean the best defender. It just means the best player for each position.

South Koreans think Kim’s defensive skills as a shortstop are average, and Kang was much better at defense than Kim.

MLB has much faster Exit-velocity than the KBO and Kang was a below average shortstop. So Kang played mainly as a third baseman and even that wasn't a good defense

I hope you don't be fooled by YouTube or highlights

As a result, I still think Ha-seong Kim is an attractive resource, but I have a question as to whether it is necessary to pay and acquire in the amount of money mentioned now.

The Blue Jays are the team that should eventually aim to win the World Series. If Kim succeeds, it will be a huge benefit, but it is too risky.

Although there are loss of prospects in the trade, Lindor's extension is uncertain, and LeMahieu is asking for a huge amount of money, I think the Blue Jays need best player like Lindor or LeMahieu.

I think the enthusiasm for Ha-seong Kim is too excessive and the risk is very very high.

Coles Notes:

I'm a Korean too and I hope Kim succeed. But I mean the risks are too high for the Blue Jays who are aiming to World Series.

EDIT: This guy isnt a bandwagon fan that jumped on when Ryu signed. He was a fan since the early 2000s because of Halladay.