Blue Jays FAQ: Why hasn't Toronto made a blockbuster move yet? - Sportsnet.ca
Ugh. You mentioned that the Blue Jays are lurking. Where do things stand for them with the Big Four?
As best as I’ve managed to glean, the Blue Jays remain in play for Springer, LeMahieu, Bauer and Realmuto. A report from Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News this week suggested the bidding for Springer was down to the Mets and Blue Jays, although my sense is it’s not clear that the end-game there is nigh.
Same with the Yankees and LeMahieu, and an interesting question is whether big moves by the Mets would spur a counter in the Bronx and waiting for that to play out could be keeping the infielder from signing. Bauer is a unicorn on the free-agent market as the only elite starter available, which should make landing him all the more complicated, although Realmuto’s market may have closed off once the Mets shifted to McCann, perhaps creating a better pathway to him for the Blue Jays.
Well then, why haven’t they done it yet? Why don’t they force the issue with one of those primary targets?
That’s an approach I’d advocate, but my guess is that the Blue Jays are reluctant to set the market and forcing the issue for them probably means going at least a year longer than other clubs, for more dollars per season. They were willing to pay a premium for Hyun-Jin Ryu last year when they gave him $80 million over four years, but the tariff on cutting Springer off from the Mets before he gets their best offer would be far more significant. And since no other team is jumping the market, the Blue Jays can afford to let things play out, allow someone else to establish the going rate and react accordingly.
All that being said, landing one of the Big Four is going to require a massive leap out of their comfort zone. A statement I’m often mindful is from 2016, when Andrew Friedman, the Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations, said, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.” The Blue Jays will probably need to get super irrational. Will they to get a deal done with one of those four?
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That’s what we’re talking about. They should go all A.J. Preller beefing up the Padres, right?
Don’t hold your breath for something that striking. Back at the trade deadline this summer, when Preller made six deals involving 26 players, I asked Atkins why not take a similar approach. This was his answer:
“Look at the Dodgers. It's never all-in at one time – it's a steady growth. They continue to build up their system. They've continued to make their 40-man roster more efficient and obviously very effective. It's important to be measured, and there isn't one juncture where, in our view, that you put all the cards on the table. For us it will be, hopefully, continuing to be able to build and have a system that continues to provide talent for us, and not just trade pieces. That's our goal.”
All of that applies to the winter, too. In an ideal world, my guess is the Blue Jays would want to gradually add pieces to their core in the hopes they develop a team rather than a bundle of talent. Even the Padres did things in stages, adding Eric Hosmer three years ago, Manny Machado two years ago, Drew Pomeranz, Tommy Pham, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham and Zach Davies last year, before topping up with Mike Clevinger, among others at the deadline, and now grabbing Snell, Yu Darvish and Kim. The Padres had a deeper farm system to work from than the Blue Jays, but I wouldn’t expect them to behave as aggressively as the Padres even if they did.
Ugh. You mentioned that the Blue Jays are lurking. Where do things stand for them with the Big Four?
As best as I’ve managed to glean, the Blue Jays remain in play for Springer, LeMahieu, Bauer and Realmuto. A report from Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News this week suggested the bidding for Springer was down to the Mets and Blue Jays, although my sense is it’s not clear that the end-game there is nigh.
Same with the Yankees and LeMahieu, and an interesting question is whether big moves by the Mets would spur a counter in the Bronx and waiting for that to play out could be keeping the infielder from signing. Bauer is a unicorn on the free-agent market as the only elite starter available, which should make landing him all the more complicated, although Realmuto’s market may have closed off once the Mets shifted to McCann, perhaps creating a better pathway to him for the Blue Jays.
Well then, why haven’t they done it yet? Why don’t they force the issue with one of those primary targets?
That’s an approach I’d advocate, but my guess is that the Blue Jays are reluctant to set the market and forcing the issue for them probably means going at least a year longer than other clubs, for more dollars per season. They were willing to pay a premium for Hyun-Jin Ryu last year when they gave him $80 million over four years, but the tariff on cutting Springer off from the Mets before he gets their best offer would be far more significant. And since no other team is jumping the market, the Blue Jays can afford to let things play out, allow someone else to establish the going rate and react accordingly.
All that being said, landing one of the Big Four is going to require a massive leap out of their comfort zone. A statement I’m often mindful is from 2016, when Andrew Friedman, the Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations, said, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.” The Blue Jays will probably need to get super irrational. Will they to get a deal done with one of those four?
...................
That’s what we’re talking about. They should go all A.J. Preller beefing up the Padres, right?
Don’t hold your breath for something that striking. Back at the trade deadline this summer, when Preller made six deals involving 26 players, I asked Atkins why not take a similar approach. This was his answer:
“Look at the Dodgers. It's never all-in at one time – it's a steady growth. They continue to build up their system. They've continued to make their 40-man roster more efficient and obviously very effective. It's important to be measured, and there isn't one juncture where, in our view, that you put all the cards on the table. For us it will be, hopefully, continuing to be able to build and have a system that continues to provide talent for us, and not just trade pieces. That's our goal.”
All of that applies to the winter, too. In an ideal world, my guess is the Blue Jays would want to gradually add pieces to their core in the hopes they develop a team rather than a bundle of talent. Even the Padres did things in stages, adding Eric Hosmer three years ago, Manny Machado two years ago, Drew Pomeranz, Tommy Pham, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham and Zach Davies last year, before topping up with Mike Clevinger, among others at the deadline, and now grabbing Snell, Yu Darvish and Kim. The Padres had a deeper farm system to work from than the Blue Jays, but I wouldn’t expect them to behave as aggressively as the Padres even if they did.
