Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Pt II: It's the off-season in November!... Wait. That's normal for baseball.

[Cloned]

Roark is still a Jay.

Also, he is by far the biggest victim of pitching most of the year in a AAA stadium.

My point still stands.

 

[justashadowof]

Roark is still a Jay.

Also, he is by far the biggest victim of pitching most of the year in a AAA stadium.

He only gave up 5 of his 14 HRs at Sahlen Field. That's 5 HRs in 5 games at home compared with 9 HRs in 6 games on the road.

 

[Morgs]

He only gave up 5 of his 14 HRs at Sahlen Field. That's 5 HRs in 5 games at home compared with 9 HRs in 6 games on the road.

If you had the displeasure of watching him more than once this year, you'd definitely understand it wasn't the AAA field that made him so bad lmao.

 

[Bjindaho]

I think Roark will be fine this year as a #5, but would prefer it be somewhere else.

Looking at non-tenders, Schwarber and Robertson could be interesting as depth options.

 

[phillipmike]

Lost in all the FA talk is one quietly disappointing thing happening this off-season:

the big minor league reorganization that MLB is forcing to take place has all but certainly ended the affiliation of the Blue Jays and the Vancouver Canadians.

As part of the reorg, MLB has set that there will be 6 and only 6 levels of minor league ball: AAA, AA, High-A, Low-A, "complex" leagues (GCL and extended spring training stuff, it seems), and Dominican Summer League. To accomodate this, several existing leagues at levels like short-season-A and Rookie are being disbanded or merged and bumped up to different play levels.

This includes the Northwest League, which is being turned into an (apparently) 6-team High-A league.

Given that the goal of this shuffling is to create better geographic situations for MLB parent clubs (ie keeping teams relatively close together) and that the Jays already have a High-A team in Dunedin who uses their spring training facility, there's pretty much no avenue for Vancouver to remain affiliated with the Jays and the C's will instead likely end up as the brand new High-A affiliate of some random NL/AL West team.

That's gonna hurt attendance as a big part of the draw was for fans out west to have some connection to the Jays.

Also the idea that the NWL is going to be full-season April-September baseball playing in Vancouver/Washington/Oregon in small outdoor parks is profoundly stupid. They're gonna have so much fun when there's like a 50/50 chance that any given April/May game gets rained out and they suddenly have to jam a ton of extra games into June-September to make up for it. It's the bloody reason the league was short-season in the first place.

Can you tell I'm kind of pissed about this?

EDIT: No sooner do I write the above that I find out I might be wrong.

According to a Keith Law (BOOOO! ) article on The Athletic, the full league shuffle is as follows:

Law: Minor league musical chairs continues, for better and for worse

• the Cal and Florida State Leagues are being dropped from High-A to Low-A
  
• The Northwest League is bumped from Short-Season A to High-A
• The Midwest League and South Atlantic League are bumped from Low-A to High-A (the leagues are also possibly split and some of their teams will be redistributed to other leagues)
• The Pioneer League is being demoted from Short-Season A to an Independent league that will allow limited intake of affiliated MLB players from MLB clubs
• The Appalachian League and NY-Penn Leagues are being dissolved to eliminate redundancies and to accommodate a new "Draft League" meant to showcase draft-eligible players.
  
• Fresno, part of the AAA PCL is apparently being demoted to the Low-A Cal league because of travel distance between it and other PCL clubs.

The bump up of the MWL and demotion of the FSL means that the Jays now have 1 different Low-A team (Dunedin) and two previous affiliates at High-A (Vancouver and Lansing).

Via an article in the Vancouver Province (ugh), A's beat reporter Susan Sussler had previous reported that Oakland was looking at taking the Vancouver affiliation since they're on the west coast, but apparently that has fallen apart and they are now looking at Lansing instead. She also claims that indications are Vancouver would stay with the Jays. Perhaps someone in the Jays' front office lobbied hard to keep the unique Canadian connection of the Jays/C's even if it violates the whole "geography matters" part of this realignment plan. If that's true it would mean the new Blue Jays org affiliation chart is:

AAA: Buffalo
AA: New Hampshire
Hi-A: Vancouver
Lo-A: Dunedin
Other: GCL Jays, DSL Jays

Removed: Lansing (promoted to hi-A and reaffiliated with Oakland), Bluefield (folded along with the rest of their league.

the NWL being full-season is still really stupid though.

Vancouver stayed with the Jays because of COVID. Oakland saw an issue of crossing the border so they opted against acquiring the Vancouver franchise. Jays kept the Canadian franchise and the A’s acquired the American franchise due to the border issues.

 

[thehockeysong]

If Vancouver is in fact Hi-A moving forward, we will be getting a lot more accessible information on prospects playing there with so many Jays fans attending. That'd be great

 

[Hoverhand]

I think the most frustrating thing with Roark is that we signed him in December before we knew anything about the pandemic and we had the pitching depth to make him completely unnecessary. He had a 5.63 FIP in 2019 and we gave him 20 million dollars. Bleh.

 

[Deebo]

I think the most frustrating thing with Roark is that we signed him in December before we knew anything about the pandemic and we had the pitching depth to make him completely unnecessary. He had a 5.63 FIP in 2019 and we gave him 20 million dollars. Bleh.

5.63 was in 10 starts after the trade to the the A's, he was 4.18 with the Reds and 4.67 on the year.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

Roark had a good history of being a cromulent starter before signing and it remains plausible that his bad performance was mainly short season weirdness and he'll bounce back to being the average-ish inning eater he's usually been.

Or he could not. Point is its wrong to just assume he's worthless.

 

[Zanks]

Roark had a good history of being a cromulent starter before signing and it remains plausible that his bad performance was mainly short season weirdness and he'll bounce back to being the average-ish inning eater he's usually been.

Or he could not. Point is its wrong to just assume he's worthless.

It seems weird people are taking the short season as irrefutable evidence that Roark is garbage, but trade valuations still have Lindor, Arenado, Baez, Bryant etc as valuable guys (for players who also shit the bed last year, relatively speaking).

 

[canucksfan]

Roark had a good history of being a cromulent starter before signing and it remains plausible that his bad performance was mainly short season weirdness and he'll bounce back to being the average-ish inning eater he's usually been.

Or he could not. Point is its wrong to just assume he's worthless.

His control was very bad and he gave up a lot of homers. He could improve his control which IMO is likely but homers will still be an issue although not nearly as bad as last year. Roark is better suited in a pitcher's ballpark.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

He only gave up 5 of his 14 HRs at Sahlen Field. That's 5 HRs in 5 games at home compared with 9 HRs in 6 games on the road.

Sahlen is also virtually the exact same dimensions as the dome as well. Down the lines Sahlen is 3 feet shorter and is actually deeper than the dome in center field.

 

[The Nemesis]

Vancouver stayed with the Jays because of COVID. Oakland saw an issue of crossing the border so they opted against acquiring the Vancouver franchise. Jays kept the Canadian franchise and the A’s acquired the American franchise due to the border issues.

That wouldn't really be any different of an issue for the Jays than the A's. It's not like guys are going from A-ball to the show, so any sort of prospect movement to/from Vancouver for any parent franchise, Toronto or otherwise, involves crossing the border. Because outside of super-aggressive initial placements, players will come to Vancouver from GCL/Dunedin and then will be off to New Hampshire when they move up. The only time it might be relevant is if the Jays want to use Vancouver as their rehab stint location. But that seems iffy too since assignment to Dunedin would have the benefit of the players getting their work in at the team's massive training complex.

You also say this with certitude like it was reported somewhere. Was there a story that gave this reason or are you just speculating?

 

[SDig14]

 

[trellaine201]

oops

 

[Kurtz]

Cubs let Schwarber go rather than paying him under $10m in arb. .

 

[Hoverhand]

Cubs let Schwarber go rather than paying him under $10m in arb. .

If Springer doesn't pan out, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing in Dahl or Schwarber as a project to see if they return to their former selves. I lean Dahl because of CF abilities but either works.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Cubs let Schwarber go rather than paying him under $10m in arb. .

If he came cheap I'd gladly take a chance on Schwarber. That being said, I wouldn't want him as anything more than a platoon/4th outfielder. I'm sure another team would offer him more playing time.

 

[Anthrax442]

Sounds like another Fisher

 

[Bjindaho]

Sounds like another Fisher

Before last year, Schwarber's worst year was 1.7 WAR.

Personally, I go for Springer, a middle infielder and a stud pitcher, then use anything left on having quality depth. We wouldn't offer starting time, though, which makes him unlikely.

 

[BlueForever75]

If Springer doesn't pan out, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing in Dahl or Schwarber as a project to see if they return to their former selves. I lean Dahl because of CF abilities but either works.

If Springer doesnt pan out there are better options then Schwarber or Dahl. Would rather try signing one of Bradley, Brantley, Ozuna or Goodwin prior to those players. One of the first 3 gives you an opportunity to unload one of Gurriel, Grichuk or Hernandez in a deal to fill other holes (SP, or INF). One of Fisher or Davis will be your 4th OF.

 

[Hoverhand]

Sounds like another Fisher

I can definitely see how the idea of another "project" outfielder clogging up the roster can bring back bad memories of Fisher but I think the differences between Fisher and Schwarber are enough to have some optimism. Even with Schwarber's terrible year last year, he still garnered a 90 wRC+. If he can get his BABIP back up into the .260 area then he'll be a great value signing for a team that only coughed up a 1 year deal to get him.

If Springer doesnt pan out there are better options then Schwarber or Dahl. Would rather try signing one of Bradley, Brantley, Ozuna or Goodwin prior to those players. One of the first 3 gives you an opportunity to unload one of Gurriel, Grichuk or Hernandez in a deal to fill other holes (SP, or INF). One of Fisher or Davis will be your 4th OF.

In the scenario where we go after Dahl, I'd imagine they allocated their money to Bauer and/LeMahieu and weren't looking to take on another big contract that Ozuna or Brantley would be demanding. This might be an unpopular take but I'm more interested in Dahl than Bradley Jr., if Dahl returns to form then it's the steal of the off season.

 

[SDig14]

If you sign Springer, Brantley or Schwarber are not going to be playing very much unless someone else is moved out. I like the idea of Schwarber over Brantley if the plan is to ignore defense for the most part and mostly DH. Schwarber could DH and mix in a bit in the field against RHP and then sub out against LHP.

 

[phillipmike]

Bold, aggressive Blue Jays ready to pounce on high-end off season moves | Toronto Sun

During a recent Zoom presentation to George Springer, the Jays tapped into the marketing and scouting department to help sell themselves... Cavan Biggio, who lives in Houston during the off-season, has been a vocal recruiter

 

[phillipmike]

Ranking the Chances for Every MLB Team to Land Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency

2. Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays established themselves as an up-and-coming contender in 2020 mostly because of their offense, which was generally terrific.

It did, however, have one flaw. Whereas Toronto hit 88 total home runs, only 25 came from the left side of the plate. And after non-tendering Travis Shaw on Wednesday, the Blue Jays offense is currently slated to be even more right-handed in 2021.

This is where Schwarber could come in, and the Jays might even have an ideal opening for him. If Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s weight loss leads to another chance at third base, Rowdy Tellez could shift to first base and thereby open up the DH spot for Schwarber.

If there's a catch, it's that Toronto might have its sights set higher on guys like George Springer (here), DJ LeMahieu (here) and Marcell Ozuna (here).