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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 15th: How's that dream job now, Farrell?

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hero said:
Quick question, how old is the teams core?

Like how long is our window of opportunity.
Click to expand...

Our window could last a good while given key pieces can stay healthy. If EE and Bautista can stay healthy throughout their contracts will be a pretty big factor. Johnson re signing is also very important IMO. After that our core is pretty set. Dickey if he pitches well in the Dome could pitch for a long time. By the time Buerhle's contract is up we'll have internal options to take his place if not before hand. He could be traded in a couple years to create a spot for someone like Hutch. Gose replaces Melky down the road if not Rasmus although he's more inclined to be a core player if he can start to obp better. Lawrie is under team control for a long time. 2b and ss are locked in for 3 more years as it stands. 1B is the only hole going forward.
 
Leafsdude7 said:
Since everyone is making predictions... :laugh:

Regulars:
Reyes SS
.305, 6HR, 50RBI, 60SB, .360 OBP

Cabrera LF
.285, 12HR, 65RBI, 20 SB, .340 OBP

Bautista RF
.280, 45HR, 135RBI, .950 OPS

Encarnacion DH/1B
.265, 35HR, 105RBI, .815 OPS

Lawrie 3B
.295, 25HR, 70RBI, .335 OBP

Rasmus CF
.250, 20HR, 55RBI

Arencibia C
.235, 20HR, 50RBI

Lind 1B/DH
.260, 15HR, 45RBI

Bonifacio 2B/SS/LF
.275, 5HR, 35RBI, 50SB

Bench:
Thole C
.260, 5HR, 20 RBI

Izturis 2B/SS/3B
.255, 5HR, 25 RBI, 10SB

Davis LF/RF/CF
.250, 5HR, 15 RBI, 45SB

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Davis should get a lot of PR opportunities. 45 SB is probably still high, but I can't help but consider that as a real possibility.

I still feel we'll add another bat to the bench via FA, so that's why I haven't put a 4th bench guy there. I'm not even sure who would be our 4th bench guy if we don't pick anyone else up. Gose would seem pointless since his best tool is speed and we've already got a PR in Davis, and I'm not sure if Sierra or Cooper are better served on the bench in the Majors instead of at AAA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Starting Pitching
Dickey
20W, 3.25 ERA, 180SO, 1.115 WHIP

Morrow
18W, 3.50 ERA, 175SO, 1.185 WHIP

Johnson
16W, 3.55 ERA, 185SO, 1.205 WHIP

Buehrle
12W, 3.95 ERA, 115SO, 1.240 WHIP

Romero
12W, 3.80 ERA, 150SO, 1.295 WHIP

Closer:
Janssen
65Sv, 2.80 ERA, 60SO, 1.050 WHIP

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

78 wins for our starters combined is probably a bit high, but I can't decide who is too high out of that list. We did get 70% of our wins last year from starters, and we had a really poor and decimated staff. If we estimate 93 wins this year, that'd be 84% of our wins from our starters. Probably still high, but 75-80% is probably accurate, so it's not horrifically high.

I'm really sickened by our potential SO totals, though. I even feel like I'm underestimating most of them there. :laugh:
Click to expand...
65 saves??

Edit: I see you already were asked about that. Ill be honest though, most of your predictions are close to what I would have said
 
Leafsdude7 said:
Since everyone is making predictions... :laugh:

Regulars:
Reyes SS
.305, 6HR, 50RBI, 60SB, .360 OBP

Cabrera LF
.285, 12HR, 65RBI, 20 SB, .340 OBP

Bautista RF
.280, 45HR, 135RBI, .950 OPS

Encarnacion DH/1B
.265, 35HR, 105RBI, .815 OPS

Lawrie 3B
.295, 25HR, 70RBI, .335 OBP

Rasmus CF
.250, 20HR, 55RBI

Arencibia C
.235, 20HR, 50RBI

Lind 1B/DH
.260, 15HR, 45RBI

Bonifacio 2B/SS/LF
.275, 5HR, 35RBI, 50SB

Bench:
Thole C
.260, 5HR, 20 RBI

Izturis 2B/SS/3B
.255, 5HR, 25 RBI, 10SB

Davis LF/RF/CF
.250, 5HR, 15 RBI, 45SB

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Davis should get a lot of PR opportunities. 45 SB is probably still high, but I can't help but consider that as a real possibility.

I still feel we'll add another bat to the bench via FA, so that's why I haven't put a 4th bench guy there. I'm not even sure who would be our 4th bench guy if we don't pick anyone else up. Gose would seem pointless since his best tool is speed and we've already got a PR in Davis, and I'm not sure if Sierra or Cooper are better served on the bench in the Majors instead of at AAA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Starting Pitching
Dickey
20W, 3.25 ERA, 180SO, 1.115 WHIP

Morrow
18W, 3.50 ERA, 175SO, 1.185 WHIP

Johnson
16W, 3.55 ERA, 185SO, 1.205 WHIP

Buehrle
12W, 3.95 ERA, 115SO, 1.240 WHIP

Romero
12W, 3.80 ERA, 150SO, 1.295 WHIP

Closer:
Janssen
65Sv, 2.80 ERA, 60SO, 1.050 WHIP

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

78 wins for our starters combined is probably a bit high, but I can't decide who is too high out of that list. We did get 70% of our wins last year from starters, and we had a really poor and decimated staff. If we estimate 93 wins this year, that'd be 84% of our wins from our starters. Probably still high, but 75-80% is probably accurate, so it's not horrifically high.

I'm really sickened by our potential SO totals, though. I even feel like I'm underestimating most of them there. :laugh:
Click to expand...

If morrow wins 18 games he wont be 3rd on the team in strikeouts, likely 1st in the league
 
canucksfan said:
Seems to be a religious nut.
Click to expand...

You are certainly entitled to get whatever jersey you wish, for whatever rationale you wish.

To be clear, though, just because someone has faith doesn't make them a religious nut. Pretty easy to tell the dfference: the nuts are the ones who want to blow you up, or deny women basic human rights, or lock themselves and their 47 wives up in armed compounds against the inevitable apocalypse. Dickey certainly doesn't appear to fit hat description - and if his faith has helped him get through some tough times in his life, who are we to fault him for it? (And I say this as an aetheist.)

You'll be hard-pressed to find a baseball clubhouse that doesn't include a majority of players of faith, of one stripe or another. As long as they are good teammates who play well for their team, why should we care what if any faith they profess?
 
Nick0930 said:
Man...You guys really hate JP. I'll be more than happy with him driving in 75 runs at the bottom of the order.
Click to expand...

Its not that people hate him. He seems like a good guy who is great in the clubhouse.

Its just that most of us see his limitations. He is a below average starting catcher. He still has time to turn it around and has shown improvements defensively but overall he is below average.
 
Predictions are fun because they're always so wrong.

Lineup
1. Jose Reyes .290/.340/.460 .800 OPS 20 HR 40 SB
2. Melky Cabrera .280/.340/.450 .790 OPS 20 HR 20 SB
3. Jose Bautista .270/.380/.600 .980 OPS 45 HR 5 SB
4. Edwin Encarnacion .280/.370/.550 .920 OPS 40 HR 15 SB
5. Brett Lawrie .280/.340/.510 .850 OPS 25 HR 30 SB
6. Colby Rasmus .260/.320/.450 .770 OPS 25 HR 15 SB
7. Adam Lind .270/.320/.430 .750 OPS 20 HR 0 SB
8. JP Arencibia .250/.315/.475 .790 OPS 30 HR 5 SB
9. Emilio Bonifacio .285/.350/.375 725 OPS 5 HR 50 SB

Starters
1. RA Dickey 2.95 ERA 1.10 WHIP 18W
2. Josh Johnson 3.50 ERA 1.15 WHIP 16W
3. Bradon Morrow 3.50 ERA 1.20 WHIP 16W
4. Mark Buehrle 4.00 ERA 1.40 WHIP 12W
5. Ricky Romero 3.90 ERA 1.40 WHIP 12W
 
Leafsdude7 said:
Since everyone is making predictions... :laugh:

Regulars:
Reyes SS
.305, 6HR, 50RBI, 60SB, .360 OBP

Cabrera LF
.285, 12HR, 65RBI, 20 SB, .340 OBP

Bautista RF
.280, 45HR, 135RBI, .950 OPS

Encarnacion DH/1B
.265, 35HR, 105RBI, .815 OPS

Lawrie 3B
.295, 25HR, 70RBI, .335 OBP

Rasmus CF
.250, 20HR, 55RBI

Arencibia C
.235, 20HR, 50RBI

Lind 1B/DH
.260, 15HR, 45RBI

Bonifacio 2B/SS/LF
.275, 5HR, 35RBI, 50SB

Bench:
Thole C
.260, 5HR, 20 RBI

Izturis 2B/SS/3B
.255, 5HR, 25 RBI, 10SB

Davis LF/RF/CF
.250, 5HR, 15 RBI, 45SB

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Davis should get a lot of PR opportunities. 45 SB is probably still high, but I can't help but consider that as a real possibility.

I still feel we'll add another bat to the bench via FA, so that's why I haven't put a 4th bench guy there. I'm not even sure who would be our 4th bench guy if we don't pick anyone else up. Gose would seem pointless since his best tool is speed and we've already got a PR in Davis, and I'm not sure if Sierra or Cooper are better served on the bench in the Majors instead of at AAA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Starting Pitching
Dickey
20W, 3.25 ERA, 180SO, 1.115 WHIP

Morrow
18W, 3.50 ERA, 175SO, 1.185 WHIP

Johnson
16W, 3.55 ERA, 185SO, 1.205 WHIP

Buehrle
12W, 3.95 ERA, 115SO, 1.240 WHIP

Romero
12W, 3.80 ERA, 150SO, 1.295 WHIP

Closer:
Janssen
65Sv, 2.80 ERA, 60SO, 1.050 WHIP

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

78 wins for our starters combined is probably a bit high, but I can't decide who is too high out of that list. We did get 70% of our wins last year from starters, and we had a really poor and decimated staff. If we estimate 93 wins this year, that'd be 84% of our wins from our starters. Probably still high, but 75-80% is probably accurate, so it's not horrifically high.

I'm really sickened by our potential SO totals, though. I even feel like I'm underestimating most of them there. :laugh:
Click to expand...

Those are huge concerns for me. Rasmus will not have only 55 RBI, he will likely be closer to 70+ again. Jansen will not save even close to 65 games with this offense. Morrow will strike out over 200 if he stays healthy, even Dickey will. Davis will not play enough to have 45 SB, he barely did that last year.
 
Not a snowball's chance in hell that ALL our starters have an ERA under 4, imo. I'm predicting Dickey and Romero will both have an ERA around 4.5
 
Cyris said:
Its his job to lose right now imo.
Click to expand...

I disagree. Santos was picked up for that job and he has (had?) better stuff than Janssen. It's definitely Santos' job to lose and he very well could lose it. However, if he can return to his form from the White Sox days he will definitely be our closer this year.
 
my predictions

Reyes .283 avg .343 obp 12hr 53 rbi
Cabrera .276 avg .336 obp 11hr 70 rbi
Bautista .268 abg .359 obp 45hr 124 rbi
Encarnacion .279 avg .340 obp 37hr 101rbi
Lawrie .270 avg .341obp 19hr 78 rbi
Rasmus .252 avg .307obp 24hr 70 rbi
Arencibia .238 avg. .290 obp 24hr 68 rbi
Lind .271 avg .310 obp 23hr 61 rbi
Izturis .268 avg .321 obp 4hr 34 rbi

no time to do pitchers right now.
 
The Amazing Ralph said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell that ALL our starters have an ERA under 4, imo. I'm predicting Dickey and Romero will both have an ERA around 4.5
Click to expand...

It's possible but I do believe that Dickey will have one of the best ERAs in the AL. People are underestimating him so badly. Just because he is a knuckleballer. What else does he have to do in order to prove to people that he is a great pitcher?
 
Everlong said:
As long as he supplies stellar defense, the leash is fairly long I'd think. I'm hoping he can at least surpass the 250 avg plateau.
Click to expand...

If stellar D is what you want there is a kid expected to start in AAA that is your man.

This could be Rasmus's make or break year. His bat isnt really good enough for a corner outfield spot right now and and Gose is almost ready to take his spot in center.

If he breaks out and plays like he did in his sophomore year move him to RF and Joey Batts to 1B/DH. But if Rasmus has another year like the last 2, I just don't see how there will be a place for him in 2014.
 
smitty10 said:
I disagree. Santos was picked up for that job and he has (had?) better stuff than Janssen. It's definitely Santos' job to lose and he very well could lose it. However, if he can return to his form from the White Sox days he will definitely be our closer this year.
Click to expand...

Janssen was great last year as the closer while santos missed the entire year. It is 100% janssens job to lose
 
Suntouchable13 said:
It's possible but I do believe that Dickey will have one of the best ERAs in the AL. People are underestimating him so badly. Just because he is a knuckleballer. What else does he have to do in order to prove to people that he is a great pitcher?
Click to expand...

People aren't familiar with the knuckleball. Some assume he's just another soft-tosser, riding the fine line between picking corners and getting crushed. He's going to open alot of eyes.
 
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