Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 15th: How's that dream job now, Farrell?

[Rob Brown]

Dickey is the man. Seems so genuine and real. Really looking forward to watching him pitch.

 

[Tony Romo]

When are these guys all getting introduced?

 

[Hurt]

John Farrell is managing the Blue Jays by mid-June

We're talking bold here, aub. Not ridiculous.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

We're talking bold here, aub. Not ridiculous.

I wonder if the entire Farrell going was part of AA's plan sometimes lol.

 

[Hurt]

I wonder if the entire Farrell going was part of AA's plan sometimes lol.

I gave up a long time ago on trying to predict AA's next move. He's just too quiet. Feels like everything is preparation for something else.

 

[p.l.f.]

Mike Napoli's deal with the Red Sox is on hold due to a hip problem
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#xydSiaQiLGZpJckU.99

they have to wait for it to heal?

 

[dredeye]

Man, he's a pretty awesome guy:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/pens-bittersweet-farewell-mets-article-1.1225987

I guess Mets fans weren't exaggerating how much class he has. Thanks for posting it.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I gave up a long time ago on trying to predict AA's next move. He's just too quiet. Feels like everything is preparation for something else.

Silent ones are usually the one who are very unpredictable and extremely clever. Or so I am told However glad this team is on the right swing

 

[Ohio Jones]

Dickey is the man. Seems so genuine and real. Really looking forward to watching him pitch.

Yep - classy and authentic. Hard not to cheer for that.

 

[canucksfan]

Was going to get a Dickey jersey but not now.

Will lean towards Reyes.

 

[Leafsdude7]

Since everyone is making predictions...

Regulars:
Reyes SS
.305, 6HR, 50RBI, 60SB, .360 OBP

Cabrera LF
.285, 12HR, 65RBI, 20 SB, .340 OBP

Bautista RF
.280, 45HR, 135RBI, .950 OPS

Encarnacion DH/1B
.265, 35HR, 105RBI, .815 OPS

Lawrie 3B
.295, 25HR, 70RBI, .335 OBP

Rasmus CF
.250, 20HR, 55RBI

Arencibia C
.235, 20HR, 50RBI

Lind 1B/DH
.260, 15HR, 45RBI

Bonifacio 2B/SS/LF
.275, 5HR, 35RBI, 50SB

Bench:
Thole C
.260, 5HR, 20 RBI

Izturis 2B/SS/3B
.255, 5HR, 25 RBI, 10SB

Davis LF/RF/CF
.250, 5HR, 15 RBI, 45SB

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Davis should get a lot of PR opportunities. 45 SB is probably still high, but I can't help but consider that as a real possibility.

I still feel we'll add another bat to the bench via FA, so that's why I haven't put a 4th bench guy there. I'm not even sure who would be our 4th bench guy if we don't pick anyone else up. Gose would seem pointless since his best tool is speed and we've already got a PR in Davis, and I'm not sure if Sierra or Cooper are better served on the bench in the Majors instead of at AAA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Starting Pitching
Dickey
20W, 3.25 ERA, 180SO, 1.115 WHIP

Morrow
18W, 3.50 ERA, 175SO, 1.185 WHIP

Johnson
16W, 3.55 ERA, 185SO, 1.205 WHIP

Buehrle
12W, 3.95 ERA, 115SO, 1.240 WHIP

Romero
12W, 3.80 ERA, 150SO, 1.295 WHIP

Closer:
Janssen
65Sv, 2.80 ERA, 60SO, 1.050 WHIP

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

78 wins for our starters combined is probably a bit high, but I can't decide who is too high out of that list. We did get 70% of our wins last year from starters, and we had a really poor and decimated staff. If we estimate 93 wins this year, that'd be 84% of our wins from our starters. Probably still high, but 75-80% is probably accurate, so it's not horrifically high.

I'm really sickened by our potential SO totals, though. I even feel like I'm underestimating most of them there.

 

[Hero]

Quick question, how old is the teams core?

Like how long is our window of opportunity.

 

[topched]

Was going to get a Dickey jersey but not now.

Will lean towards Reyes.

Haha why "not now?", did he slight you?

 

[Leafsdude7]

Quick question, how old is the teams core?

Like how long is our window of opportunity.

Outside of Dickey and Buehrle, our regulars are all in their late-20s/early 30s. We could have as long at 5 or 6 years with the rest of the core, and even Dickey could still be around in that time.

We're probably going to have to shell out some decent coin to keep Johnson around, though. That's our big ? right now as I hear it.

 

[p.l.f.]

why the apprehension?
everyone has a mammoth season
it's christmas

dickey 23 - 7
johnson 21 - 0
buehrle 20 - 10
morrow 18 - 8
romero 17 - 9

janssen 50 sv

reyes .330 20 80 125r 60sb
cabrera .330 20 90
bautista .300 55 130
encarnacion .285 45 115
lind .265 30 105
lawrie .290 20 90
rasmus .260 25 80
arencebia .250 25 75
bonifacio .265 5 55 90r 50sb

toronto 121 41 ---
new york 86 76 35
tampa 86 76 35
boston 76 86 45
baltimore 72 90 49

 

[canucksfan]

Haha why "not now?", did he slight you?

Seems to be a religious nut.

 

[Leafsdude7]

why the apprehension?
everyone has a mammoth season
it's christmas

dickey 23 - 7
johnson 21 - 0
buehrle 20 - 10
morrow 18 - 8
romero 17 - 9

janssen 50 sv

reyes .330 20 80 125r 60sb
cabrera .330 20 90
bautista .300 55 130
encarnacion .285 45 115
lind .265 30 105
lawrie .290 20 90
rasmus .260 25 80
arencebia .250 25 75
bonifacio .265 5 55 90r 50sb

toronto 121 41 ---
new york 86 76 35
tampa 86 76 35
boston 76 86 45
baltimore 72 90 49

Seems to be a religious nut.

If your problem with baseball players include them being religious nuts, then you might as well not personalize your jersey at all.

 

[SeenSchenn2]

Yeah obviously he will have difficulty at first... But he's a pro athlete and he will have a lot of time over the coarse of the season to learn.

Obviously. Like Hayhurst said: "Doug Mirabelli didn't become a great knuckle-ball catcher overnight". It'll take some time, but taking the initiative to meet up before spring training is encouraging. Although it's a shame once JPA catches him and does badly, people will crap all over him.

I'm well aware he's an average at best defensive catcher (so I'm not trying to make him out to be some king), but I expect him to improve.

 

[Epictetus]

Just to be clear, no team has ever won more than 116 games in a single regular season. Do people really expect the Jays to be this good (i.e., best regular season team ever), or are they just following the "bold" theme? I've seen 120 wins mentioned a few times.

And Leafsdude7, you think Janssen will put up 65 saves?

I think your Rasmus, Arencibia, and Lind projections are a bit conservative/low, but other than that I think your predictions are similar to what I would have constructed.

 

[Leafsdude7]

And Leafsdude7, you think Janssen will put up 65 saves?

I suppose not. I guess I overestimated that one.

I think 50 is a real possibility for him, though.

I think your Rasmus, Arencibia, and Lind projections are a bit conservative/low, but other than that I think your predictions are similar to what I would have constructed.

I'm pretty confident that, if they're placed 6-8 in the batting order like I expect, they'll end up with lower numbers. I don't even think they're all that low, at least historically. Arencibia's numbers are pretty much his totals from last year, Rasmus is well above his career averages with only his 2010 season being notably better, and Lind's average is well above the last three seasons as well, though batting 8th means few RBI totals and, IMO, less HRs.

 

[Powdered Toast Man]

The Jays are gonna win 116 games in August, calling it.

 

[pooleboy]

why the apprehension?
everyone has a mammoth season
it's christmas

dickey 23 - 7
johnson 21 - 0
buehrle 20 - 10
morrow 18 - 8
romero 17 - 9

janssen 50 sv

reyes .330 20 80 125r 60sb
cabrera .330 20 90
bautista .300 55 130
encarnacion .285 45 115
lind .265 30 105
lawrie .290 20 90
rasmus .260 25 80
arencebia .250 25 75
bonifacio .265 5 55 90r 50sb

toronto 121 41 ---
new york 86 76 35
tampa 86 76 35
boston 76 86 45
baltimore 72 90 49

o god i can only hope

 

[Dill Pickle]

Just to be clear, no team has ever won more than 116 games in a single regular season. Do people really expect the Jays to be this good (i.e., best regular season team ever), or are they just following the "bold" theme? I've seen 120 wins mentioned a few times.

And Leafsdude7, you think Janssen will put up 65 saves?

I think your Rasmus, Arencibia, and Lind projections are a bit conservative/low, but other than that I think your predictions are similar to what I would have constructed.

I don't think anyone really expects that many wins. In the AL east I think winning 100+ games is being a little overly optimistic. 120 wins is just insane... but here's hoping

 

[canucksfan]

I think Lawrie will have a big year. .290 Avg, 25 HR 80 RBIs.

 

[p.l.f.]

and attendance will be 40,000+ every night