Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 13th: Report - Dickey extended, trade just pending physicals

[LloydChristmas*]

I think the whole clutchness debate depends on how you define clutch. Some guys hit well with RISP. To me, it doesn't matter if it comes in the 1st, 3rd, or 8th, it still qualifies as a clutch hit. I don't think people who argue that Arencibia is a clutch hitter think he is because he bats better in later innings, I think it's because he bats better with guys on base, and even better than that when they're on second or third base. That right there is irrefutable. That's what makes him clutch. So in that regard, i think you could argue that clutch hitting does exist.

 

[Sokil]

I think the whole clutchness debate depends on how you define clutch.

this seems to be the crux of the entire debate.

 

[Bomber0104]

I think the whole clutchness debate depends on how you define clutch. Some guys hit well with RISP. To me, it doesn't matter if it comes in the 1st, 3rd, or 8th, it still qualifies as a clutch hit. I don't think people who argue that Arencibia is a clutch hitter think he is because he bats better in later innings, I think it's because he bats better with guys on base, and even better than that when they're on second or third base. That right there is irrefutable. That's what makes him clutch. So in that regard, i think you could argue that clutch hitting does exist.

I don't buy that ******** at all.

Players try to hit the ball whether theres players on base or not.

Youre telling me that when guys are on base they try really hard and when there aren't they don't?

Its crap.

Crap I tell you.

 

[thatshype]

The idea that a player performs BETTER in a late-inning close game is what I would define as a "clutch player". It probably doesn't exist other than an ability for a guy to box-out the intangibles of an At-Bat and simply perform as he his statistically able to.

A career .300 hitter would be "clutch" in my mind if he can hit ~.300 in late-innings w/RISP and with the game-differential less than 3 runs. That's such a convoluted stat to calculate though and also doesn't factor in hot- and cold-streaks (which of themselves are defined as abnormalities). Clutch hitting is a very delicate thing to discuss because there likely isn't either a statistical or a physical characteristic that can ever define it.

 

[Destroyer100]

The definition of clutch has already been defined. If people have watched the world juniors team Canada they would know what im talking about. Its clutch Eberle. Jordan Eberle is the definition of clutch.

 

[LloydChristmas*]

I don't buy that ******** at all.

Players try to hit the ball whether theres players on base or not.

Youre telling me that when guys are on base they try really hard and when there aren't they don't?

Its crap.

Crap I tell you.

Could be a combination of things. Shortening up the swing to make better contact. A change in the pitchers' mentality. Just a different situation all together. You can't deny the numbers unless you put it all on coincidence. But I think there's something there. It's too strong of a correlation over too long of a period to blame it on coincidence.

 

[Sokil]

I don't understand the complaints still. This is it like it being 2010 and acquiring Cliff Lee (age not withstanding, its hard to get a good comparison) for David Purcey and Travis Snider

 

[charliolemieux]

It does seem very strange that info has leaked for several days. AA usually keeps everything top secret until it's done.

I know for sure AA has said himself that if you hear something it isn't true. And I am prety sure he said that he has shut down a trade over a media leak.

Dickey may be different though.

A knuckle baller in the line up has some nice ripple effects.

 

[Bomber0104]

Could be a combination of things. Shortening up the swing to make better contact. A change in the pitchers' mentality. Just a different situation all together. You can't deny the numbers unless you put it all on coincidence. But I think there's something there. It's too strong of a correlation over too long of a period to blame it on coincidence.

What if a pitcher becomes more aggressive to end the inning?

Has nothing to do with the batter but more about the pitcher.

To me that's what it is...coincidence. Batters bat. Pitchers pitch. Doesn't change at any point in the game. If people want to separate statistics in baseball all the power to you, but someone has to "win" the game every game. It's a matter of ability and believe it or not that comes down to the percentages, not a "clutch mindset" or some fictional psychology that stats nerds think.

 

[LloydChristmas*]

What if a pitcher becomes more aggressive to end the inning?

Has nothing to do with the batter but more about the pitcher.

Either way, it ends in the same results! Take a look at Arencibia's splits over the past 3 seasons. They're more pronounced than most.

 

[thatshype]

I don't buy that ******** at all.

Players try to hit the ball whether theres players on base or not.

Youre telling me that when guys are on base they try really hard and when there aren't they don't?

Its crap.

Crap I tell you.

It's not that they "try harder", it's that the traditional definition of "clutch" means they can box-out the implications of the AB, disregard the crowd noise, etc etc. It's the mental aspect of what a high-pressure at-bat can do to a player that makes one "better" at it than another.

Statistically speaking: A career .250 hitter should have a 25% chance of getting a hit, whether it be bottom of the 9th in game 7 of the World Series or opening day. But a lot of people would argue that the 25% chance drops heavily for most players when faced with the daunting mental task of performing in such a high pressure scenario. The traditional "clutch" player are guys that can box-out that noise, and simply give us the 25% chance.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

You've got to be kidding me if you don't think that some players can handle pressure better than others. Some players rise to the occasion, some do not, simple as that.

Alex Rodriguez has played 75 playoff games, almost a half season. Surely that is enough time for his stats to "regress to the mean". However, he is a .263 hitter with an .833 OPS, whereas over his career he is a .300 hitter with a .945 OPS. Some players have it, and some players don't. Yes, a lot of players will perform the same..take Derek Jeter for example, as his playoff and regular season stats are almost the same. But I really do think that some are able to handle pressure better than others.

The problem with a lot of stats is that they make players out to be robots, when they are not. They have quirks, emotions, mind games, and all these affect their performance. These are why we have "hot streaks" and "slumps". And if a player is prone to collapsing under the pressure, he will not perform under pressure, simple as that. If a player embraces pressure, he has the potential to perform better. THat's my take on it.

 

[thatshype]

The definition of clutch has already been defined. If people have watched the world juniors team Canada they would know what im talking about. Its clutch Eberle. Jordan Eberle is the definition of clutch.

Different sport, not a good analogy at all. Both the tangible and the intangible considersations vary greatly between hockey and baseball.

 

[Bomber0104]

Either way, it ends in the same results! Take a look at Arencibia's splits over the past 3 seasons. They're more pronounced than most.

Maybe it's because he's behind in the rotation after all the good batters have been to the plate?

Sometimes the most obvious answer is the right one.

It's really simple.

Put JP at the 1, 2, or 3 hole and he would not have those numbers.

 

[The Nemesis]

it's not a myth, someone either pulls it off often or they don't.

but the point is that they tend to pull it off at the same rate that they would otherwise get hits. Obviously if there are going to be runs driven in from scoring situations or late in games or whatever someone's going to have to get those hits. But the question of clutch hitting is whether or not players are going to be more prone to doing so in those situations than they might be otherwise. And that's where the evidence tends to stand up against the notion. Derek Jeter has a rep as a clutch hitter, but that's almost ignoring the fact that he's a damn good hitter the rest of the time too. He's not suddenly any better in "clutch" situations than he is the rest of the time over the entirety of his career.

Obviously there are going to be some guys that show better clutch numbers and some that show worse. But often these are in part because of small sample sizes, and may very well be prone to wild fluctuations over the course of their career.

Just for JP, in 2012 he had his highest BA in situations with RISP, but it was also counted in only 1/2 the PAs as just having men on base (keeping in mind that the men on base stats incorporate the RISP ones) and 1/4 the PAs as the bases empty. (the #s were .235 for bases empty, .230 for men on base, .295 for RISP) In 2011 he was .193, .254, and .242 respectively.

Problem with JP is that it's a small sample (2 years and limited PA's in the RISP situations.) So what about the aforementioned Mr Clutch, Derek Jeter?

.304 with RISP, .308 with men on base (RISP or otherwise), .310 with the bases empty for his career. And year for year, the numbers fluctuate wildly. In 08 he hit .317 with RISP and just .300 with the bases empty. 09 he was just .259 with RISP and .359 with the bases empty. '10 had him at .271 RISP and .290 bases empty.

So the end result is that there are swings in his numbers from year to year with no discernable pattern, and that for the whole of his career he's slightly worse in RISP situations than bases empty (although in reality the range is almost statistically insignificant at .006 points difference.)

and that tends to be what bears out with most other hitters. Their "clutch" stats are going to be consistent with their normal stats on the whole, with swings and changes you'd expect to see with sample size problems in year-to-year stats.

EDIT: I should note that Fangraphs also tracks low, medium, and high leverage situations, which factors in runners, game score, innings, etc, and the same pattern emerges.

 

[charliolemieux]

The definition of clutch has already been defined. If people have watched the world juniors team Canada they would know what im talking about. Its clutch Eberle. Jordan Eberle is the definition of clutch.

"Clutch" is why the Yankees and Red Sox have won when they are obviously the 2nd best team in the game that day.

That is why I suggested Yukilis a while ago. I seem to remember him getting hits late and with risp. A hard out to get in the late innings.

All I am saying is I would rather him than Lind pinch hitting for me with runners on 1st and 3rd in the 9th inning of game 5 in the ALCS.

 

[Hyperglide]

c'mon guys. wasn't kidding about threadbans if things start to slide again. Critique the post, not the poster. Leave personal issues or attacks on other users out of it. I don't like threadbanning people, but it beats spending all my time putting out fires.

I've moderated a few boards and seen some terrible mods in my time. You're a good one Nem. Appreciate your hard work!

 

[LloydChristmas*]

Maybe it's because he's behind in the rotation after all the good batters have been to the plate?

Sometimes the most obvious answer is the right one.

It's really simple.

Put JP at the 1, 2, or 3 hole and he would not have those numbers.

That doesn't make any sense. Anyways, I've said what I wanted to. The rest of you decide!

 

[chewey]

I don't buy that ******** at all.

Players try to hit the ball whether theres players on base or not.

Youre telling me that when guys are on base they try really hard and when there aren't they don't?

Its crap.

Crap I tell you.

Think of it like a final.

Lets say during the course you get a 88% AVG. By that you should expect that the person would also get an 88% (or at least around a B to A- range). But some people fail. Its not due to the lack of trying. No one should go into the final thinking "hey, I think i'll score a little less for ***** and giggles". Its just some people forget things under pressure, just get over confident or what ever.

NOW exams and hitting are different. But I am sure that players are effected mentally when players are on base opposed to when no one's on. It may be subconscious or to some concious. Its the pressure of 'being the man to run in a score' vs. 'just get on base'.

To end off on that note, I've never been a MLB player (shocking, I KNOW!) and don't know what they see.

 

[thatshype]

Think of it like a final.

Lets say during the course you get a 88% AVG. By that you should expect that the person would also get an 88% (or at least around a B to A- range). But some people fail. Its not due to the lack of trying. No one should go into the final thinking "hey, I think i'll score a little less for ***** and giggles". Its just some people forget things under pressure, just get over confident or what ever.

NOW exams and hitting are different. But I am sure that players are effected mentally when players are on base opposed to when no one's on. It may be subconscious or to some concious. Its the pressure of 'being the man to run in a score' vs. 'just get on base'.

To end off on that note, I've never been a MLB player (shocking, I KNOW!) and don't know what they see.

On the same analogy, people seem to define clutch as a 65% student that somehow pulls off a 95% on the final exam. That's much harder to accomplish then a 95% student bombing the exam.

 

[Bomber0104]

That doesn't make any sense. Anyways, I've said what I wanted to. The rest of you decide!

I think that JP's position in the batting order (after the big hitters) gives him a lot of opportunity with RISP.

I just have a hard time understanding how the game is different with RISP. Crowd noise? Anything else?

I would think a player would face the same pressure at any at bat, not just the ones with run implications.

 

[p.l.f.]

dickey hasn't signed yet

 

[TMLeafer]

Not sure if this has been posted, but RA Dickey's story:

The beginning contains his story of abuse, if you're very sensitive, you might want to skip it.

 

[Kb21]

I don't understand the complaints still. This is it like it being 2010 and acquiring Cliff Lee (age not withstanding, its hard to get a good comparison) for David Purcey and Travis Snider

it is because we traded 2 top 5 prospects in our system for a pitcher who has only had 3 good seasons after pitching for over 15, not to mention in a weaker league/division

what may work to our advantage next season is that everyone seems to have a lot less power as all the power bats have gone to the NL. hopefully we can hit 93 wins, everyone stays healthy and we have a good run in the playoffs. i hope gibbons can steal us some wins in the regular season.

 

[Bomber0104]

On the same analogy, people seem to define clutch as a 65% student that somehow pulls off a 95% on the final exam. That's much harder to accomplish then a 95% student bombing the exam.

Academic scores have no translation to a sport.

If you do homework you succeed in tests. If you are a good athlete and have the pitcher figured out, you hit.