Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 12th: We don't know Dickey (about any extension. Yet)

[Mogwai]

Why the hell would the Jays trade Rasmus if they want to win now? They're clearly loading up on established MLB players. Rasmus is a more complete MLB player right now and there's no reason to give up on him yet, as has been said.

 

[Tony Romo]

to be fair, we are giving up a lot. but three things to note

1) Isn't Sanchez the best of the lansing 3? didn't this guy get compared to have verlander like stuff?

2) We Still have gose.

3) It Took AA 3 years to build a great farm. We have a top 10 pick this year and I wouldn't be surprised if 3 years down the road we have a great farm again.

 

[Leafssss]

Losing TDA hurts. I still always thought it would be a good idea to eventually convert JPA to 1B and keep TDA at catcher. Gose just hasnt sold me on his bat yet.

Prepare to get flamed.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Prior to this season showed nothing?

It's been statistically proven throughout the last 2-3 threads that Dickey's last 3 years compares to that of David Price's.

LOL, I'd love to see this "statistical analysis".

Dickey has a combined 9.9 WAR over the past three seasons. David Price, on the other hand, has a combined 13.9 WAR over the past three seasons.

Dickey's SIERA in 2010 was 3.91, 4.01 in 2011 and 3.18 in 2012. David Price's SIERA was 3.85 in 2010, 3.27 in 2011 and 3.16 in 2012.

Dickey's xFIP was 3.75 in 2010, 3.95 in 2011, and 3.27 in 2012, compared to Price's 3.83 in 2010, 3.32 in 2011 and 3.12 in 2012.

Anyone who argues that Dickey was relatively even with David Price, statistically, over the past three seasons, has no idea what they're talking about. That's not to say that Price has been significantly better, but he has been better.

 

[Woodman19]

to be fair, we are giving up a lot. but three things to note

1) Isn't Sanchez the best of the lansing 3? didn't this guy get compared to have verlander like stuff?

2) We Still have goes.

3) It Took AA 3 years to build a great farm. We have a top 10 pick this year and I wouldn't be surprised if 3 years down the road we have a great farm again.

1) Yes he did

2) Yes we do

3) It was built under the old CBA which allowed us to collect comp picks like candy which we can not do anymore. Furthermore everyone is always so quick to point out that prospects bust, having less means the success rate is also going to be less.

 

[The Nemesis]

I doubt it. Gose has a terrible bat. Rasmus has solid power and is a great fielder.

Gose is a better fielder right now and comes with a better arm, is a better baserunner, and Rasmus' bat is incredibly streaky and prone to tremendous cold streaks (which we saw last year). As of right now Rasmus is better, but the lack of development out of him means that Gose has closed the gap. Another stagnating season and Gose can catch up. Consider that in spite of putting up a .223/.303/.622 line, and striking out an abhorrent 31% of the time in his limited MLB action last year, Gose still managed a positive WAR (0.6 for 189 credited plate appearances). Comparatively, Rasmus finished with a 1.4 WAR in 625 credited PAs. In other words, Gose provided almost half of Rasmus' seasonal value last year in 1/3rd the playing time. And given the rate that Gose accumulated his WAR, if he had played as many PAs as Rasmus, he would've finished as a 2 WAR player.

I may be incorrect in applying WAR in that fashion, but the logic seems sound (WAR is a cumulative stat, which means you should be able to extrapolate it for given points if you figure out what the accumulation rate is)


Regarding the trade, Ike Davis doesn't count as a prospect, so if you believe the Dickey/Thole/Prospect reports, then Davis can't/shouldn't be the 3rd piece.

and on the value, I don't like it. The goal of the Blue Jays has been explicitly stated as creating a system in which we don't have a window to compete. Where we can do our best to keep it open perpetually by building a strong farm and shuffling in good prospects as they are ready and as we can move the pieces they are replacing out for more assets or just because of age/decline/desire to leave. Trading 2 of your top prospects for a guy who is on a ticking clock in terms of usefulness goes against that. If it were one prospect I wouldn't have as much problem. Probably less problem if it were Syndergaard as opposed to d'Arnaud (catchers who come with the skill package he does are ultra rare). But the price just strikes me as too high as it's reported.

 

[Leafssss]

to be fair, we are giving up a lot. but three things to note

1) Isn't Sanchez the best of the lansing 3? didn't this guy get compared to have verlander like stuff?

2) We Still have gose.

3) It Took AA 3 years to build a great farm. We have a top 10 pick this year and I wouldn't be surprised if 3 years down the road we have a great farm again.

Also regarding the farm team; with a great major league team, we could focus on just developing prospects well and not trading them off occasionally for pieces we need (e.g. Rasmus, Happ)

 

[cyris]

Losing TDA hurts. I still always thought it would be a good idea to eventually convert JPA to 1B and keep TDA at catcher. Gose just hasnt sold me on his bat yet.

Gose hasn't sold you on his bat but you think JPA's is good enough for 1B???

People hate Lind at 1B and he hits way better than JPA. JPA has good power for a catcher but that is it. He is terrible a 1st or DH.

 

[King Mapes]

Was this deal done yesterday? 72 hours is Wednesday, not Tuesday?

 

[TieClark]

Was this deal done yesterday? 72 hours is Wednesday, not Tuesday?

I think the blogger at the score miscalculated the time and that's what people are going off of. It's 72 hours from the source that reported the trade being done

 

[King Mapes]

Losing TDA hurts. I still always thought it would be a good idea to eventually convert JPA to 1B and keep TDA at catcher. Gose just hasnt sold me on his bat yet.

Lol. I like JPA alot more than most but just no. He's valuable as a catcher since most catchers don't hit 20 home runs but I'd like 30 homers, 275-280+ avg at least from my 1B. JPA will never get there

 

[The Nemesis]

Losing TDA hurts. I still always thought it would be a good idea to eventually convert JPA to 1B and keep TDA at catcher. Gose just hasnt sold me on his bat yet.

No. No. No. No. No.

The only tool Arencibia has in his hitter's toolbox is power. As a catcher it's fine that he's a godawful contact/average/on-base hitter because catchers as a collective group rank somewhere between godawful and they-shouldn't-be-in-the-bigs-with-that-bat in terms of their offensive skill. But if you move him to 1st base, he suddenly becomes one of, if not the worst offensive 1B in the majors. Justin Smoak might have something to say about it, but it'd be close. His bat doesn't play anywhere except as a catcher. Never mind that you suddenly lose practically all of Arencibia's defensive value (mediocre as it is) converting him to a position he's never played before and forcing him to learn it on the fly.

 

[King Mapes]

I think the blogger at the score miscalculated the time and that's what people are going off of. It's 72 hours from the source that reported the trade being done

Okay I was sitting here confused thinking "is it Saturday?"

 

[TieClark]

It should also be noted that every blog or tweet that mentions the trade being TDA, Syndergaard etc. says "according to the New York Post"... meaning it's that one beat writers word being taken for all of it. That's not to say it's not true, but nobody in Toronto has leaked anything and everyone agrees that's a lot to give up... especially when AA went from no TDA at all to TDA++

 

[cyris]

Why the hell would the Jays trade Rasmus if they want to win now? They're clearly loading up on established MLB players. Rasmus is a more complete MLB player right now and there's no reason to give up on him yet, as has been said.

Gose helps the team win now just as much if not more than Rasmus.

Better D, better arm, better base runner, and should be able to get on base more than Colby.

All Colby really has over Gose is power.

 

[darko]

to be fair, we are giving up a lot. but three things to note

1) Isn't Sanchez the best of the lansing 3? didn't this guy get compared to have verlander like stuff?

2) We Still have gose.

3) It Took AA 3 years to build a great farm. We have a top 10 pick this year and I wouldn't be surprised if 3 years down the road we have a great farm again.

For me Sanchez is better than Syndergaard however you'll find Syndergaard slightly higher on prospect lists because he is more advanced right now than Sanchez.

 

[cyris]

No. No. No. No. No.

The only tool Arencibia has in his hitter's toolbox is power. As a catcher it's fine that he's a godawful contact/average/on-base hitter because catchers as a collective group rank somewhere between godawful and they-shouldn't-be-in-the-bigs-with-that-bat in terms of their offensive skill. But if you move him to 1st base, he suddenly becomes one of, if not the worst offensive 1B in the majors. Justin Smoak might have something to say about it, but it'd be close. His bat doesn't play anywhere except as a catcher. Never mind that you suddenly lose practically all of Arencibia's defensive value (mediocre as it is) converting him to a position he's never played before and forcing him to learn it on the fly.

I always get baffled by those who hate Lind and want to move JPA to 1st.

As bad as Lind has been he is a better hitter than JPA.

 

[canucksfan]

Gose is a better fielder right now and comes with a better arm, is a better baserunner, and Rasmus' bat is incredibly streaky and prone to tremendous cold streaks (which we saw last year). As of right now Rasmus is better, but the lack of development out of him means that Gose has closed the gap. Another stagnating season and Gose can catch up. Consider that in spite of putting up a .223/.303/.622 line, and striking out an abhorrent 31% of the time in his limited MLB action last year, Gose still managed a positive WAR (0.6 for 189 credited plate appearances). Comparatively, Rasmus finished with a 1.4 WAR in 625 credited PAs. In other words, Gose provided almost half of Rasmus' seasonal value last year in 1/3rd the playing time. And given the rate that Gose accumulated his WAR, if he had played as many PAs as Rasmus, he would've finished as a 2 WAR player.

I may be incorrect in applying WAR in that fashion, but the logic seems sound (WAR is a cumulative stat, which means you should be able to extrapolate it for given points if you figure out what the accumulation rate is)


Regarding the trade, Ike Davis doesn't count as a prospect, so if you believe the Dickey/Thole/Prospect reports, then Davis can't/shouldn't be the 3rd piece.

and on the value, I don't like it. The goal of the Blue Jays has been explicitly stated as creating a system in which we don't have a window to compete. Where we can do our best to keep it open perpetually by building a strong farm and shuffling in good prospects as they are ready and as we can move the pieces they are replacing out for more assets or just because of age/decline/desire to leave. Trading 2 of your top prospects for a guy who is on a ticking clock in terms of usefulness goes against that. If it were one prospect I wouldn't have as much problem. Probably less problem if it were Syndergaard as opposed to d'Arnaud (catchers who come with the skill package he does are ultra rare). But the price just strikes me as too high as it's reported.

My thoughts as well. It would different it was like a guy like Price. He would be the Jays ace for at least ten years. Dickey at most, will be there for 5 and that is being generous.

 

[rojac]

I think the blogger at the score miscalculated the time and that's what people are going off of. It's 72 hours from the source that reported the trade being done

If you read Rosenthal's full article on foxsports.com, it says that the teams opened up a 72-hour window on Saturday.

So, the Jays have already had a day to negotiate with Dickey.

 

[cyris]

For me Sanchez is better than Syndergaard however you'll find Syndergaard slightly higher on prospect lists because he is more advanced right now than Sanchez.

Every scout you ask could give a different answer on the former Lansing 3. All were very close.

Sanchez has the best stuff of the 3 but also the worst control.

 

[Eyedea]

LOL, I'd love to see this "statistical analysis".

Dickey has a combined 9.9 WAR over the past three seasons. David Price, on the other hand, has a combined 13.9 WAR over the past three seasons.

Dickey's SIERA in 2010 was 3.91, 4.01 in 2011 and 3.18 in 2012. David Price's SIERA was 3.85 in 2010, 3.27 in 2011 and 3.16 in 2012.

Dickey's xFIP was 3.75 in 2010, 3.95 in 2011, and 3.27 in 2012, compared to Price's 3.83 in 2010, 3.32 in 2011 and 3.12 in 2012.

Anyone who argues that Dickey was relatively even with David Price, statistically, over the past three seasons, has no idea what they're talking about. That's not to say that Price has been significantly better, but he has been better.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/r-a-dickey-and-the-myth-of-one-great-year/

I'm not trying to justify the trade, because TDA+Synd is a lot to give up for RAD, but it's worth it to know that you're not getting a 1 year wonder.

We're all accustomed to putting Price in that upper echelon of pitchers because of his repertoire and velocity, but this article puts into perspective how well R.A has pitched the last three years and how he deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as these first tier aces.

 

[SB164]

LOL, I'd love to see this "statistical analysis".

Dickey has a combined 9.9 WAR over the past three seasons. David Price, on the other hand, has a combined 13.9 WAR over the past three seasons.

Dickey's SIERA in 2010 was 3.91, 4.01 in 2011 and 3.18 in 2012. David Price's SIERA was 3.85 in 2010, 3.27 in 2011 and 3.16 in 2012.

Dickey's xFIP was 3.75 in 2010, 3.95 in 2011, and 3.27 in 2012, compared to Price's 3.83 in 2010, 3.32 in 2011 and 3.12 in 2012.

Anyone who argues that Dickey was relatively even with David Price, statistically, over the past three seasons, has no idea what they're talking about. That's not to say that Price has been significantly better, but he has been better.

Read this when you have the time:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/r-a-dickey-and-the-myth-of-one-great-year/

 

[TMLeafer]

AA's going for it all - get ready boys!

Rumoured deal is a very steep price but man, that rotation with Dickey looks phenomenal!

 

[Kessley Snipes*]

Gose hasn't sold you on his bat but you think JPA's is good enough for 1B???

People hate Lind at 1B and he hits way better than JPA. JPA has good power for a catcher but that is it. He is terrible a 1st or DH.

 

[theaub]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/r-a-dickey-and-the-myth-of-one-great-year/

I'm not trying to justify the trade, because TDA+Synd is a lot to give up for RAD, but it's worth it to know that you're not getting a 1 year wonder.

To add onto this, SIERA and FIP are not good tools to use for knuckleball pitchers since their BABIP's are in the .275 range, and always get regressed to .300 by those formulas.