Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season III: Ray/Semien out, Gausman in. Jays linked to everyone. Labor strife happening.

[BlueForever75]

It really comes down to what Bryant can be acquired for. Personally I would rather have Story on a one-year deal as we did with Semien. If he's willing to bet on himself, he can turn a great season as Semien did into a huge pay day!!! Story from beginning of FA was always thought of a candidate for a Semien type deal based on his down season. He cant expect a long term deal like Baez, Seager or Semien got. He's probably the worst available INF free agent right now.

Signing Story to play SS for one season and Bo moving to 2B isnt all that bad or just have Story play 2nd.

This type of signing wouldnt take them out of the running for a deal with Oakland or Cleveland for Chapman or Ramirez. My target would be Chapman/SP.

You definitely upgrade your lineup with Story and Chapman, and another SP.

Of course this needs to wait until after lockout.

 

[Le Cobra]

I absolutely love the fact that Atkins did what he did regarding Ray. Ray tried to play the Jays and make them up their offer by saying he had a meeting with the Angels lined up and he wasn't planning on signing before the CBA expired. From all accounts, the Jays offered Ray the same contract he signed with the Mariners, instead he tried to be greedy and is now stuck on a bottom dwelling team.

Atkins doesnt work for the Leafs

 

[BlueForever75]

Atkins doesnt work for the Leafs

Good on Atkins to hold firm. Ray should be ashamed of himself trying to pit the Jays against themselves considering they are the organization that turned his career around.

Best wishes to him in Seattle. Hope it works out for him, but I truly believe it wont. He will revert to his old ways prior to meeting Pete Walker and the Toronto Blue Jays. Its inevitable.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

people do realize bryant played a whole 55 games at 3rd base last season he is more a outfielder/ occasional corner fielder at this point

 

[as Pure as Evil]

so in other words the jacket says Canadian fans are no longer particularly important to this team and it's players.

its about the diversity of the team not the fans how you could spin this in to a negative is beyond me

 

[Kurtz]

people do realize bryant played a whole 55 games at 3rd base last season he is more a outfielder/ occasional corner fielder at this point

All the years before that he played majority 3B. Would you say Semien is no longer a capable SS simply because he played at 2B last year?

 

[as Pure as Evil]

All the years before that he played majority 3B. Would you say Semien is no longer a capable SS simply because he played at 2B last year?

no but i have found that most infielders that go to the corner outfield its due to defensive deficiencies or physical toll has accumalated. dont get me wrong if he is still a viable option at third then cool. but i have seen him linked to more teams needing a outfielder then a 3rd baseman

 

[BlueForever75]

I would definitely agree. Bryant's days as a 3B are probably behind him. But he may be looking for an opportunity to play an everyday 3B that was taken away from him!!!

That being said, I probably would pass hard on Bryant and push hard for Story on a large 1 year deal, Semien like!!!

 

[Canada4Gold]

no but i have found that most infielders that go to the corner outfield its due to defensive deficiencies or physical toll has accumalated. dont get me wrong if he is still a viable option at third then cool. but i have seen him linked to more teams needing a outfielder then a 3rd baseman

They had Longoria, and Flores who also played a lot of 3rd base. IIRC most of his time in the outfield after he was traded to San Francisco.

 

[showtime8]

I would definitely agree. Bryant's days as a 3B are probably behind him. But he may be looking for an opportunity to play an everyday 3B that was taken away from him!!!

That being said, I probably would pass hard on Bryant and push hard for Story on a large 1 year deal, Semien like!!!

Is Bryant's defense that bad? Or is 2B an attainable position for him?

 

[phillipmike]

The more I look into Bryant, the more I realize he is a perfect fit outside of not having a lefty bat.

30 years old. Durable. Can pay him $25M per for 6 years. Above average at 3B. No loss of draft pick.

Average 5 WAR a season since coming into the league.

Maximizes our 2 year window when Vladdy and Bo are cheap and gives you a contingency plan for when Gurriel and Teo are free agents after the 2023 season.

If Groshans, Orelvis or someone is ready to play 3B in 1-2 years, Bryant is passable at LF. And you can make the decision to have Bryant in LF and let Teoscar and Gurriel walk in 2 years when they are 30 and 31 respectively. Or trade them before.

By then you have Bryant in LF, Springer in RF and hopefully a CF prospect like Dasan Brown ready. If not you got to make a trade or signing.

And your infield could be;

C: Moreno
1B: Vladdy
2B: Biggio/Espinal
SS: Bichette
3B: Groshans/Orelvis
DH: Kirk

 

[DonnyNucker]

The more I look into Bryant, the more I realize he is a perfect fit outside of not having a lefty bat.

30 years old. Durable. Can pay him $25M per for 6 years. Above average at 3B. No loss of draft pick.

Average 5 WAR a season since coming into the league.

Maximizes our 2 year window when Vladdy and Bo are cheap and gives you a contingency plan for when Gurriel and Teo are free agents after the 2023 season.

If Groshans, Orelvis or someone is ready to play 3B in 1-2 years, Bryant is passable at LF. And you can make the decision to have Bryant in LF and let Teoscar and Gurriel walk in 2 years when they are 30 and 31 respectively. Or trade them before.

By then you have Bryant in LF, Springer in RF and hopefully a CF prospect like Dasan Brown ready. If not you got to make a trade or signing.

And your infield could be;

C: Moreno
1B: Vladdy
2B: Biggio/Espinal
SS: Groshans/Orelvis
DH: Kirk

What happened to Bo?

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[phillipmike]

What happened to Bo?

My mistake, i missed Bo and mixed up SS with 3B.

 

[Bjindaho]

I don't like Bryant, but it has nothing to do with his glove. He is a very good 3B defensively (was 4.5 UZR/150 in 55 games)

I don't like him because his worst 3 seasons of his career happen to be 3 of his last 4, over which he has averaged a little over 2 fWAR. He did have a 4.7 2019 though.

I think that any rebound candidate would love Toronto and I would definitely expect 130s wRC+ minimum, but is that really worth 25+ M per season? To put that in perspective, if we trade for Ramirez, we are going to have to trade some big time prospects, but he is coming off a 6.3fWAR season, is the best 3B out there, and could potentially improve on that stat line (oh, and he is cost effective for 2 years before we have to shell out the big bucks if we want to keep him).

 

[Hoverhand]

I'm having trouble finding it online, the most recent player proposal had free agency guaranteed no later than 29.5 unless the player has how many years of service time?

Thanks in advance.

 

[Bjindaho]

I'm having trouble finding it online, the most recent player proposal had free agency guaranteed no later than 29.5 unless the player has how many years of service time?

Thanks in advance.

The player proposal would eventually become 29.5 and 5 years of service. It starts out anyone with 6 years or 30.5 with 5.

Manfred: Union proposals would damage small markets

It's ironic that the commissioner talks about free agency destroying small markets while actively pushing for bigger gaps between the haves and have nots (keep in mind that NYY got back all of the luxury tax it had paid when it built a stadium). A system without a minimum means that a team can literally make money off of revenue sharing alone. For example, per MLB to adopt modified, loan-based revenue sharing plan for 2021 season, the Marlins reportedly received around 70M in 2019, but their entire payroll was around 58.5M

 

[phillipmike]

I don't like Bryant, but it has nothing to do with his glove. He is a very good 3B defensively (was 4.5 UZR/150 in 55 games)

I don't like him because his worst 3 seasons of his career happen to be 3 of his last 4, over which he has averaged a little over 2 fWAR. He did have a 4.7 2019 though.

I think that any rebound candidate would love Toronto and I would definitely expect 130s wRC+ minimum, but is that really worth 25+ M per season? To put that in perspective, if we trade for Ramirez, we are going to have to trade some big time prospects, but he is coming off a 6.3fWAR season, is the best 3B out there, and could potentially improve on that stat line (oh, and he is cost effective for 2 years before we have to shell out the big bucks if we want to keep him).

I think you might be looking at his 2021 season split between the Giants and Cubs because his last 4 seasons have been;

2018: 2.5 WAR in 102 games
2019: 4.8 WAR in 147 games
2020: 0.5 WAR in 34 games
2021: 3.3 WAR in 144 games
Total: 10.5 WAR in 427 games
Average: 4.0 WAR in 162 games

That works out to 4.0 bWAR over 162 game season - his fWAR is 4.2. If those are his "worst" season, thats not a bad floor to work with as he still has potential to be a 5-6 WAR guy. Which is realistic because his worst years in 2018 and 2020 were due to injuries.

Also keep in mind, we only had 3 position players with 4 WAR or high last season; Semien, Vladdy and Bo. So adding Bryant would help a lot.

Reminds me a lot of Springer, 4 years leading into free agency Springer averages 5.3 WAR. Obviously that's better than Bryant but of those 4 years 3 of them were literally Springer's best. So if Springer's best years can land him $150M or 6 years, then i think Bryant who is 2 years younger with a pretty high floor and a playable area around Springer's best years - i would think a 5-6 year contract at $150-170M could be worth it for Bryant. If Bryant is looking to get something closer to $200M, then i agree, i wouldn't chase him. But a Springer type deal saves you from using your prospect capital which can be saved for the deadline.

A trade for Ramirez would be ideal, but i assume that is going to cost one of Orelvis or Kirk and likely Gurriel and Biggio. If you can get Bryant with just money and save Biggio and Gurriel for other trades, then im all for it.

 

[Bjindaho]

I think you might be looking at his 2021 season split between the Giants and Cubs because his last 4 seasons have been;

2018: 2.5 WAR in 102 games
2019: 4.8 WAR in 147 games
2020: 0.5 WAR in 34 games
2021: 3.3 WAR in 144 games
Total: 10.5 WAR in 427 games
Average: 4.0 WAR in 162 games

That works out to 4.0 bWAR over 162 game season. If those are his "worst" season, thats not a bad floor to work with as he still has potentially to be a 5-6 WAR guy. Which is realistic because his worst years in 2018 and 2020 were due to injuries.

Also keep in mind, we only had 3 position players with 4 WAR or high last season; Semien, Vladdy and Bo. So adding Bryant would help a lot.

Reminds me a lot of Springer, 4 years leading into free agency Springer averages 5.3 WAR. Obviously that's better than Bryant but of those 4 years 3 of them were literally Springer's best. So if Springer's best years can land him $150M or 6 years, then i think Bryant who is 2 years younger with a pretty high floor and a playable area around Springer's best years - i would think a 5-6 year contract at $150-170M could be worth it for Bryant. If Bryant is looking to get something closer to $200M, then i agree, i wouldn't chase him. But a Springer type deal saves you from using your prospect capital which can be saved for the deadline.

A trade for Ramirez would be ideal, but i assume that is going to cost one of Orelvis or Kirk and likely Gurriel and Biggio. If you can get Bryant with just money and save Biggio and Gurriel for other trades, then im all for it.

I don't want to average out a guy who has 1 4 win season in 4 years to say he's basically a 4 win player, because he was worth 2.6 wins per year over that time. Even dropping him down to 150 games (every year) drops his bWAR to 3.7, which last year would still make him the 8th best 3B in baseball. Chapman is slightly below that but not in line for 25+ M.

Then if you use this methodology, Espinal was .1 worse per G (and significantly better per PA) and Brian Anderson in MIA has been worth 3.3 per year over the last 4.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't want to average out a guy who has 1 4 win season in 4 years to say he's basically a 4 win player, because he was worth 2.6 wins per year over that time. Even dropping him down to 150 games (every year) drops his bWAR to 3.7, which last year would still make him the 8th best 3B in baseball. Chapman is slightly below that but not in line for 25+ M.

Then if you use this methodology, Espinal was .1 worse per G (and significantly better per PA) and Brian Anderson in MIA has been worth 3.3 per year over the last 4.

If you want to factor potential injuries into account that's fair game but the shortened season because of covid is not. If you average the other 3 seasons it's 3.6. If you don't want to disregard that season entirely because it was clearly his worst offensive year then fine but you should still pro-rate his output for that year because a shortened season isn't his fault and everyone loses games. Pro-rated out, even saying he misses the same % of games that he did that year he's worth 1 fWAR which brings the overall average up to 3.0 fWAR

Not really sure it's fair to compare to Espinal because they need another good infielder regardless. Whether that player is way better, equal to, or slightly worse than Espinal they're not going into the season with Espinal as the only capable 3B and Smith as the backup middle infielder. Espinal will still get a huge chunk of games, likely close to 100 if everyone is healthy and more if there are injuries as I'd suspect he'd split time with Biggio at 2nd and gives guys breaks in the field as they shift the DH around. Whoever we add is likely reducing Espinal's number of games slightly but is mainly replacing Smith.

 

[Kiwi]

I'll never forget the unbelievably tight pants, grunting like a woman's tennis player and **** you stuff

That's one hell of a memorable mixture

 

[Eyedea]

I would definitely agree. Bryant's days as a 3B are probably behind him. But he may be looking for an opportunity to play an everyday 3B that was taken away from him!!!

That being said, I probably would pass hard on Bryant and push hard for Story on a large 1 year deal, Semien like!!!

Re: Story

He costs a pick, his home/road splits are big (Coors effect), and he probably doesn’t want a 1 year deal or to be pushed off SS.

 

[dredeye]

Is it weird that I have no interest in story or Bryant? Story on a one year sure but that’s not very likely. Bryant I just don’t think we want to lock into.

 

[Hoverhand]

the benefits of not having to dip into your prospect pool whatsoever for Bryant is such a major bonus. We've obviously thrown around the idea of a package involving Kirk, Gurriel, Groshans to upgrade but I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland and Oakland played stubborn and demanded Moreno/Martinez types all the way up until the work stoppage.

They have the flexibility to pull it off. Alternatively, I'm FINE with a Gurriel+ deal for an upgrade at third but then I'd want them to shell out for Schwarber who is allegedly demanding 3/60. Lefty bat and he was a monster post-sticky stuff crackdown.

 

[kb]

Renfroe for Bradley jr. may be one of the worst trades I've ever seen. What in the f*** is Boston thinking? And I'm loving this, there's nothing worse than a RedSox fan.

Correct.

I have a buddy who is a RedSox, Bruin, Patriot, and Celtic fan.

Asshole x 4.