Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[Ale Brew]

Yeah, it's a very high-risk deal, IMO. I'm always suspicious of shoulder injuries because too many guys just aren't the same when they come back. This almost feels like a panic move from San Francisco.

It’s risky, but not anywhere near as risky as the $350M deal they just backed out of. And yeah, it’s a panic move, but they kind of had to do it after the way the offseason played out.

 

[SoupNazi]

It’s risky, but not anywhere near as risky as the $350M deal they just backed out of. And yeah, it’s a panic move, but they kind of had to do it after the way the offseason played out.

Oh yeah, I agree, it was a deal they had to make because the fan base out there is restless, to say the least. And I'd rather eat this money than Correa's deal, but I'm also 50-50 on whether this works out for them.

It just feels too much like a "satisfy the fanbase" move because Conforto doesn't even put them in the same stratosphere as LA and San Diego. That division is going to be a two-horse race.

 

[Bjindaho]

It’s risky, but not anywhere near as risky as the $350M deal they just backed out of. And yeah, it’s a panic move, but they kind of had to do it after the way the offseason played out.

While normally I'd agree, Conforto put up a poor season while healthy and is shifting to a pitcher's park.

If the rumblings are true, he may not even be physically capable of playing the OF.

Correa's deal would have been 26.25M from 28-40 and he's coming off a 4.4fWAR season.

I'll take the guy that doesn't cost me 18M to potentially not be able to play at all.

 

[Ale Brew]

While normally I'd agree, Conforto put up a poor season while healthy and is shifting to a pitcher's park.

If the rumblings are true, he may not even be physically capable of playing the OF.

Correa's deal would have been 26.25M from 28-40 and he's coming off a 4.4fWAR season.

I'll take the guy that doesn't cost me 18M to potentially not be able to play at all.

13 years vs 2?

I agree that there’s little upside here for the Giants. If he plays well he’ll opt out looking for a bigger deal next year. If not, they are stuck on the hook. But the Giants almost had to do this.

And that Correa deal would’ve probably looked good for 3-5 years, then been an albatross for many more.

 

[Eyedea]

I trade a prospect every day of the week for an established player. Too unpredictable

I would generally agree but this also highly varies based on proximity of said prospect(s). If there's an elite level prospect, like Tiedemann, who reaches AA at 19 years of age, there aren't a ton of established players with that type of pedigree. Reynolds has 3 more years of control and his surplus value is dwindling thanks to a pretty high AAV that he received to avoid ARB (thanks to an elite 2021 season). Even if Tiedemann over 6 years doesn't outperform Reynolds over 3, the surplus value that we're likely to receive is good enough to sway him into untouchable territory. That is until you start getting into discussions for other untouchable players, like Alcantara (just throwing out a name).

Lefty, reaches high 90s with a sinking FB, two plus offspeed pitches, athletic build with fluid delivery. Earlier in the month BNS mentioned this:



Sometimes guys flame out once they hit AAA/MLB, I understand that. But very rarely does a guy of Tiedemann's ilk come around. Jumping the gun a bit but a rotation of Manoah/Gausman/Bassitt/Berrios/Tiedemann will be filthy.

 

[Bjindaho]

I would generally agree but this also highly varies based on proximity of said prospect(s). If there's an elite level prospect, like Tiedemann, who reaches AA at 19 years of age, there aren't a ton of established players with that type of pedigree. Reynolds has 3 more years of control and his surplus value is dwindling thanks to a pretty high AAV that he received to avoid ARB (thanks to an elite 2021 season). Even if Tiedemann over 6 years doesn't outperform Reynolds over 3, the surplus value that we're likely to receive is good enough to sway him into untouchable territory. That is until you start getting into discussions for other untouchable players, like Alcantara (just throwing out a name).

Lefty, reaches high 90s with a sinking FB, two plus offspeed pitches, athletic build with fluid delivery. Earlier in the month BNS mentioned this:



Sometimes guys flame out once they hit AAA/MLB, I understand that. But very rarely does a guy of Tiedemann's ilk come around. Jumping the gun a bit but a rotation of Manoah/Gausman/Bassitt/Berrios/Tiedemann will be filthy.

Adding on to this, you can't sign an Alek Manoah. Either you draft one, you get really lucky in a trade, or you pay a ton in a trade.

Guys that hit free agency usually either have warts (struggled in the AL East, durability, etc) or they ask for a ton of money. Guys available in trade are usually close to free agency and cost a lot.

Acquiring them as prospects only happens when you are trading an absolute stud prospect.

To put this in perspective, if Tiedemann repeats last year over more innings, he is likely a BP piece late in the year (to protect his innings) and is a top 5 (possibly even the top) prospect in baseball by mid season.

 

[Eyedea]

While normally I'd agree, Conforto put up a poor season while healthy and is shifting to a pitcher's park.

If the rumblings are true, he may not even be physically capable of playing the OF.

Correa's deal would have been 26.25M from 28-40 and he's coming off a 4.4fWAR season.

I'll take the guy that doesn't cost me 18M to potentially not be able to play at all.

While Oracle Park may suppress more home runs, those hits will just turn into doubles/triples. Also it may just be because the Mets have had some elite pitching in recent years, but park factors suggest Citi Field is more pitcher friendly.

 

[Bjindaho]

While Oracle Park may suppress more home runs, those hits will just turn into doubles/triples. Also it may just be because the Mets have had some elite pitching in recent years, but park factors suggest Citi Field is more pitcher friendly.

Good thing the player in question doesn't have a Tony Batista with more walks hitting line then.

 

[Hoverhand]

I would generally agree but this also highly varies based on proximity of said prospect(s). If there's an elite level prospect, like Tiedemann, who reaches AA at 19 years of age, there aren't a ton of established players with that type of pedigree. Reynolds has 3 more years of control and his surplus value is dwindling thanks to a pretty high AAV that he received to avoid ARB (thanks to an elite 2021 season). Even if Tiedemann over 6 years doesn't outperform Reynolds over 3, the surplus value that we're likely to receive is good enough to sway him into untouchable territory. That is until you start getting into discussions for other untouchable players, like Alcantara (just throwing out a name).

Lefty, reaches high 90s with a sinking FB, two plus offspeed pitches, athletic build with fluid delivery. Earlier in the month BNS mentioned this:



Sometimes guys flame out once they hit AAA/MLB, I understand that. But very rarely does a guy of Tiedemann's ilk come around. Jumping the gun a bit but a rotation of Manoah/Gausman/Bassitt/Berrios/Tiedemann will be filthy.

I think Ben is reaching here pretty clearly, his source doesn't even appear to be in the organization. I like to use Alek Manoah as a measuring stick because he was rushed to the majors and he might as well have been a seasoned vet compared to what Tiedemann is now. Tiedemann only has 1 season outside of highschool, where he pitched 80 innings while Manoah already had an 100 inning NCAA season under his belt before coming to pro ball. Unless he makes it out of camp, he's going to burn a lot of innings in the minors before theoretically getting a call up and I doubt the Jays want him to go that far above 100 this year.

Trading Tiedemann for Reynolds is still a bad idea but I think we should all temper expectations on Tiedemann playing for the Jays in 2023.

 

[Bjindaho]

I think Ben is reaching here pretty clearly, his source doesn't even appear to be in the organization. I like to use Alek Manoah as a measuring stick because he was rushed to the majors and he might as well have been a seasoned vet compared to what Tiedemann is now. Tiedemann only has 1 season outside of highschool, where he pitched 80 innings while Manoah already had an 100 inning NCAA season under his belt before coming to pro ball. Unless he makes it out of camp, he's going to burn a lot of innings in the minors before theoretically getting a call up and I doubt the Jays want him to go that far above 100 this year.

Trading Tiedemann for Reynolds is still a bad idea but I think we should all temper expectations on Tiedemann playing for the Jays in 2023.

I think that Tiedemann spends the first half of the year with approx 4 inning starts, with the idea of being moved to the BP in the second half. That way his innings can be limited.

As a BP option, Tiedemann is likely better than some of the guys on the MLB roster. The issue with that he's trending into the David Price level starter.

 

[Discoverer]

I think Ben is reaching here pretty clearly, his source doesn't even appear to be in the organization. I like to use Alek Manoah as a measuring stick because he was rushed to the majors and he might as well have been a seasoned vet compared to what Tiedemann is now. Tiedemann only has 1 season outside of highschool, where he pitched 80 innings while Manoah already had an 100 inning NCAA season under his belt before coming to pro ball. Unless he makes it out of camp, he's going to burn a lot of innings in the minors before theoretically getting a call up and I doubt the Jays want him to go that far above 100 this year.

Trading Tiedemann for Reynolds is still a bad idea but I think we should all temper expectations on Tiedemann playing for the Jays in 2023.

If I remember correctly, he spent a month working with the development staff before moving to AA, so I doubt they're basing his innings total on the 78 IP in the minors. I would guess it's something more like 100 as his 2022 baseline.

I don't think a late season bullpen call is remotely unrealistic. He'll likely start the season in AA, and they can be careful with his innings throughout the season to leave enough leeway for him to throw ~10 bullpen innings in September and make the playoff roster.

 

[Eyedea]

I think Ben is reaching here pretty clearly, his source doesn't even appear to be in the organization. I like to use Alek Manoah as a measuring stick because he was rushed to the majors and he might as well have been a seasoned vet compared to what Tiedemann is now. Tiedemann only has 1 season outside of highschool, where he pitched 80 innings while Manoah already had an 100 inning NCAA season under his belt before coming to pro ball. Unless he makes it out of camp, he's going to burn a lot of innings in the minors before theoretically getting a call up and I doubt the Jays want him to go that far above 100 this year.

Trading Tiedemann for Reynolds is still a bad idea but I think we should all temper expectations on Tiedemann playing for the Jays in 2023.

I don't disagree with the idea of having him pitch exclusively in the minors in 2023, but being an impact arm in 2023 doesn't exclude pitching from the pen. They've extended his season in 2022 by sending him back to the lab for rest/development, it's not out of the question in 2023 as well. 2024 opening day roster is when I envision him in the rotation.

 

[Bjindaho]

Sounds like the Jays still tried to bring him back with Bassitt signed. Didn’t realize Kluber had a 3.0 fWAR season with the Rays.



Just confirm, there will be another bat added to this lineup. Likely another starter too and possibly a reliever.

I wonder how much Kluber would want. He'd be a pretty damn solid #5.

 

[Eyedea]

Good thing the player in question doesn't have a Tony Batista with more walks hitting line then.

Not sure I follow but him just having more walks than Tony Batista is kind of being disingenuous to the type of hitter he is. Since Conforto entered the league in 2015, min. 2000 PAs, he's ranked 42nd in wRC+. Comparable to some pretty good players (Trea Turner), better than some other pretty good players (Teo, Chapman). His direct comp over that timespan is actually Brandon Belt. SF's OF is already a little crowded with Joc/Yaz/Slater/Haniger, so he will probably find most of his ABs at DH anyway. Maybe he and Haniger will rotate. Whatever the case may be he still has a great amount of potential at the plate.

 

[Thornbury]

I would generally agree but this also highly varies based on proximity of said prospect(s). If there's an elite level prospect, like Tiedemann, who reaches AA at 19 years of age, there aren't a ton of established players with that type of pedigree. Reynolds has 3 more years of control and his surplus value is dwindling thanks to a pretty high AAV that he received to avoid ARB (thanks to an elite 2021 season). Even if Tiedemann over 6 years doesn't outperform Reynolds over 3, the surplus value that we're likely to receive is good enough to sway him into untouchable territory. That is until you start getting into discussions for other untouchable players, like Alcantara (just throwing out a name).

Lefty, reaches high 90s with a sinking FB, two plus offspeed pitches, athletic build with fluid delivery. Earlier in the month BNS mentioned this:



Sometimes guys flame out once they hit AAA/MLB, I understand that. But very rarely does a guy of Tiedemann's ilk come around. Jumping the gun a bit but a rotation of Manoah/Gausman/Bassitt/Berrios/Tiedemann will be filthy.

He ticks too many boxes for us to consider moving him for a CF. Really young, controllable for years, top of the rotation potential and a left hander. If Berrios bounces back, we would definitely have a top 5 rotation in 2024.

 

[phillipmike]

I wonder how much Kluber would want. He'd be a pretty damn solid #5.

I would bet he gets nothing more than $12M at the absolute most on a 1 year deal. Could be closer to $8-10M.

Also that Conforto deal is bad. Onto Profar or Peralta.

Also;

The Giants and reliever Taylor Rogers are in agreement on a three-year, $33MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical.

 

[phillipmike]

Opinion | Ross Stripling was interested in returning to the Blue Jays but couldn’t turn down a Giant offer

“It was just a no-brainer, when it came down to it,” right-hander says after getting opt-out clause from San Francisco.

www.thestar.com

“It came down to Toronto or San Francisco.”

“It was just a no-brainer, when it came down to it,” he said. “Other teams were taking away from the (dollars in their) offer if (an opt-out) was to be included and the Giants kept their offer the same.”

Reading between the lines, it’s easy to conclude that the Jays weren’t willing to offer Stripling the same money if they included an opt-out in the deal.

“I just can’t say enough good things about my time as a Blue Jay,” he said. “Some of my favourite baseball memories were 100 per cent in a Blue Jays uniform, what I accomplished in Toronto and found as a baseball player. Some of my happiest memories as a family (were in Toronto). My son was born as a Blue Jay.

 

[Ale Brew]

Taylor Rogers to the Giants 3 yrs $33M.

That $ just burning a hole in the Giants pocket.

 

[Hoverhand]

That $ just burning a hole in the Giants pocket.

I think we might know Bauer's next home.

 

[Beaumaris]

The only thing Bichette has going for him over Vladdy is that he plays a premium position. Vladdy had two poor months this past season offensively (coincidentally the only two months Bichette was elite) and was singlehandedly keeping them alive when the bats started to dry up in August. Yes Bichette might be more valuable from a WAR standpoint due to positional adjustment, but Vladdy will likely peak way higher with his MVP calibre seasons.

This also isn't to disparage Bo. Despite some early career injuries and COVID shortened season, he's been trending exceptionally well and has age comps to Derek Jeter and Corey Seager.

Opinions bud,opinions.

Like Trump. Very similar.

Hey! The Donald.

 

[Beaumaris]

I would generally agree but this also highly varies based on proximity of said prospect(s). If there's an elite level prospect, like Tiedemann, who reaches AA at 19 years of age, there aren't a ton of established players with that type of pedigree. Reynolds has 3 more years of control and his surplus value is dwindling thanks to a pretty high AAV that he received to avoid ARB (thanks to an elite 2021 season). Even if Tiedemann over 6 years doesn't outperform Reynolds over 3, the surplus value that we're likely to receive is good enough to sway him into untouchable territory. That is until you start getting into discussions for other untouchable players, like Alcantara (just throwing out a name).

Lefty, reaches high 90s with a sinking FB, two plus offspeed pitches, athletic build with fluid delivery. Earlier in the month BNS mentioned this:



Sometimes guys flame out once they hit AAA/MLB, I understand that. But very rarely does a guy of Tiedemann's ilk come around. Jumping the gun a bit but a rotation of Manoah/Gausman/Bassitt/Berrios/Tiedemann will be filthy.

Berrios Lol!

 

[Discoverer]

Opinions bud,opinions.

Hey! The Donald.

Opinions can be objectively wrong.

 

[Bjindaho]

Opinions can be objectively wrong.

They cannot be objectively wrong.

They can be based on mistakes or they can be objective fact misstated as an opinion, but they cannot be objectively wrong.

 

[Eyedea]

Opinions bud,opinions.

Hey! The Donald.

I mean Vladdy has a significantly better bat, and they're both relatively below average defensively (even though Vladdy got a GG), but each year there's basically a 2 win swing in value in favour of Bo due to the positions they play.

Berrios Lol!

Yeah the guy that's been a ~3-4 fWAR pitcher his entire career. Lol!

 

[Discoverer]

They cannot be objectively wrong.

They can be based on mistakes or they can be objective fact misstated as an opinion, but they cannot be objectively wrong.

Sure it can.

"In my opinion, there's no such thing as bears."

If I really believe that, then the sentence is true. But the opinion I'm expressing (that bears don't exist) is objectively wrong.