Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[Kurtz]

Dodgers right now:

 

[SoupNazi]

If I'm Judge, I just told my agent to ask for 11 years to see if someone does it.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Dodgers right now:

They're going to swoop in and land Judge so they can piss off the Giants and make the rest of baseball bang their head against the wall.

"Shit we lost our former MVP outfielder...better replace him with another, better MVP outfielder" And then i will cackle as the Yankee fans burn down their stadium in hopes Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner are inside at the time.

This whole thing is wild to me. The Yankees of my day wouldn't have even let it get to this point. He would have been locked up months ago and no one would have batted an eye. It's almost incomprehensible to me the New York Yankees of all teams are about to let a guy go...over money. George Steinbrenner is going to raise from the dead so he can smack his idiot sons.

Unless he wanted out, which also seems almost as unbelievable given what they were in the past. According to Passan he's still talking to the Yankees so if he did truly wanted out i'd imagine he'd be gone already.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Blitzkrug]

If Turner got 11, i can see Correa either getting the same or making up the lost years in AAV.

If a guy who can't play defense for shit is worth 300 million, how much is a guy who is a legitimate two way stud worth?

 

[MAB1]

Still prefer trading for a guy like Burnes + signing Nimmo than signing a guy like Rodon for $30+ million.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

Delgado vs McGriff

If McGriff is in (deservedly so), Delgado should get in too. Comparable numbers and better in most cases in 1500 less PAs.

 

[trellaine201]

Judge will make $500M over his next contract?

 

[Discoverer]

If Turner got 11, i can see Correa either getting the same or making up the lost years in AAV.

If a guy who can't play defense for shit is worth 300 million, how much is a guy who is a legitimate two way stud worth?

I've read this a couple times here and I genuinely can't figure it out. All three of DRS, UZR, and OAA have him as an awesome defender through 2019, then bad in 2020, then average the last two years. Where does the "Turner can't play defense for shit" thing come from?

 

[Discoverer]

Delgado vs McGriff

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If McGriff is in (deservedly so), Delgado should get in too. Comparable numbers and better in most cases in 1500 less PAs.

Definitely. I think Delgado gets written off because he played in the peak of the steroid era, when offense was ridiculous around the league. So his HR/SLG numbers are discounted and people don't realize that he's just as impressive when you adjust for era with stats like OPS+.

Different style of player, but I'll throw another Jays star 1B (and my favourite player of all time), John Olerud, who had a 129 OPS+ and a higher career WAR than both of them.

 

[Eyedea]

I've read this a couple times here and I genuinely can't figure it out. All three of DRS, UZR, and OAA have him as an awesome defender through 2019, then bad in 2020, then average the last two years. Where does the "Turner can't play defense for shit" thing come from?

I also don't think he'll see some catastrophic drop off in speed as he ages. He's maintained 99th percentile sprints up until now, do we really think he'll be slow by year 5? Let's critique something more worrisome like his chase rates and drop in power.

 

[Kurtz]

I also don't think he'll see some catastrophic drop off in speed as he ages. He's maintained 99th percentile sprints up until now, do we really think he'll be slow by year 5? Let's critique something more worrisome like his chase rates and drop in power.

I think speed is the first thing to go, athletically. This is why centre fielders age out so quickly and move to the corner.

 

[Hoverhand]

With McGriff getting in thanks in large part to his 493 homeruns, It would have been really funny to see Adam Dunn play just a couple more years and hit 500.

A lot of voters believe in auto-voting in anyone who has the big 500 and didnt do roids. Would have broken a lot of people's brains.

 

[Discoverer]

I think speed is the first thing to go, athletically. This is why centre fielders age out so quickly and move to the corner.

It is, but I would see that as more of a concern if it had already started to drop a bit. He's gone from 30.7 ft/s as a rookie to 30.3 ft/s last year. That's pretty much unchanged... it's not even the slowest season of his career. I think it's fair to expect at least a few more seasons of elite speed.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Kurtz]

It is, but I would see that as more of a concern if it had already started to drop a bit. He's gone from 30.7 ft/s as a rookie to 30.3 ft/s last year. That's pretty much unchanged... it's not even the slowest season of his career. I think it's fair to expect at least a few more seasons of elite speed.

A few more seasons - absolutely. But he's signed for a decade.

 

[Amadeus]

This team is always reported as a bridesmaid but were able to net Springer and Gausman. It's just great that they're in on the discussions though.

I'm really hoping we can get Senga who I profile to be a solid mid-rotation starter here. I'd love Heaney as well!

 

[Eyedea]

A few more seasons - absolutely. But he's signed for a decade.

But you also have to compare him to other 99-100 percentile type guys. We don’t really have the data for athletes like him. Even a McCutchen or Cain who were ~95 percentile guys either had an insignificant drop (McCutchen) or a noticeable drop but still in the 70-80 percentile at age 36. So yes, he’ll naturally see a drop, but it probably won’t be terrible enough for him to move off SS/CF into his late 30s.

 

[phillipmike]

This team is always reported as a bridesmaid but were able to net Springer and Gausman. It's just great that they're in on the discussions though.

I'm really hoping we can get Senga who I profile to be a solid mid-rotation starter here. I'd love Heaney as well!

If they had $40M for Verlander and still needed 2 more OFs, you have to assume they have $50-60M to spend. Since you lost on Verlander, spend $30M on Senga and Heaney or say $40M on Rodon and Heaney.

 

[Kurtz]

But you also have to compare him to other 99-100 percentile type guys. We don’t really have the data for athletes like him. Even a McCutchen or Cain who were ~95 percentile guys either had an insignificant drop (McCutchen) or a noticeable drop but still in the 70-80 percentile at age 36. So yes, he’ll naturally see a drop, but it probably won’t be terrible enough for him to play SS/CF into his late 30s.

Yeah, you can see the baseline there is 28.5 (at 20). His is 2 points higher, so if you add +2 to every one of those points, we can expect his speed to be above average until 37.

But going from a 99th percentile runner to a 70-80th percentile should still be an impactful decline (as we've seen with the speedsters you mentioned whose impact declined notably at 33).

Maybe he'll be an outlier. Otis Nixon was pushing 40 and still grabbing 60 bags.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah, you can see the baseline there is 28.5 (at 20). His is 2 points higher, so if you add +2 to every one of those points, we can expect his speed to be above average until 37.

But going from a 99th percentile runner to a 70-80th percentile should still be an impactful decline (as we've seen with the speedsters you mentioned whose impact declined notably at 33).

Maybe he'll be an outlier. Otis Nixon was pushing 40 and still grabbing 60 bags.

I believe builds largely effect this noticeable drop as well. Trout is someone who is as fast as ever (despite not stealing bases) but he’ll likely decline a bit more harshly due to his size. Most players that continue to play into their late 30s also don’t profile like Turner. Which is why the bigger fear for me would be the bat. He’s already starting to chase more and has seen a drop in his power. It’s rare for guys to stay longterm in those premium positions due to them being so taxing on the body and I’m not sure how well his bat will play elsewhere. Maybe he can resurge at 2B/LF and be a positive contributor late in his career but I think the contract will hurt them in a few years primarily due to his bat (rather than the defence/speed).

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

If Turner got 11, i can see Correa either getting the same or making up the lost years in AAV.

If a guy who can't play defense for shit is worth 300 million, how much is a guy who is a legitimate two way stud worth?

Are we talking per games played? Cause that's the real issue with Correa.