To me the question is will someone sign him and i think the answer is yes. Not will someone sign him and release him or will he stay in the league multiple years. To me its the first hurdle, will someone sign him and you said no. I think someone will.
I dont really see a trend. Russell happened in 2019. Osuna in 2018.
The trend proves if you are good enough, you will get signed;
-Aroldis Chapman (traded for 3 times in
2016 and signed $86M with the Yankees in
2016 and again in
2019 $48M)
-Jose Reyes, wasnt particularly good in 2016 but the Mets gave him contracts in
2016, 2017 and
2018 after he was suspended
-Familia suspended in
2017 and was traded for
2018, signed a 3 year deal after the
2018 season and signed 1 year contracts for
2021 and
2022
-Steven Wright got suspended in
2018 and came back that season. Got a contract extension in
2019
-Odubel Herrera got suspended in
2019, didnt play in
2020 but the Phillies re-signed him twice in
2021 and
2022
-Julio Urias was put on admin leave on May 14,
2019 for domestic battery. Dodgers reinstated him 7 days later. On August 17th he was suspended for 20 games. Since then he has played
2020, 2021 and
2022.
-Domingo German was suspended for the end of
2019, all of 2020 and half of
2021 and he is still active
The allegations against Russell came out publicly on June 7, 2017 - i bet they were know privately before then. He played the rest of the 2017 season. He started the season in 2018 and more allegations came out in September of 2018 where he was put on admin leave and then suspended for 40 game. He played his first game on May 8, 2019 and played the rest of the season. I agree, without the allegations he is likely still in the league but he isnt in Bauer's tier. His last season was 2019 where he put up 0.6 WAR. He still played games after allegations in 2017, investigations in 2018 and suspensions for 2018-19. That was when he was a 2-3 WAR player. His last year in 2019 he was a 0.6 WAR player not worth the risk. If he were a 3-4 WAR player, he is still in the majors.
Osuna got back in right away. And thats the point, prove he is still elite and he will get to stick around. Moment he wasnt elite, the league tossed him aside. I bet after time passes and he keep putting up numbers, he will sign with an MLB team in less than 3 years. When he proved to be a 2 WAR closer they kept him, when he got hurt they released him.
en.wikipedia.org
Virtually every active player on this list after Osuna and Russell got back in the majors, including Osuna and Russell.