Hellcat
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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness
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The one major caveat that makes the Bauer situation different is that the owners really didn't like him before any of this stuff came out. Due to the belief among intellectually limited people being that Bauer was somehow exonerated, He'll still have a large audience of rubes that he'll yell into a microphone to about all his grievances with the owners and baseball as a whole.
Secondly, the sticky stuff ban seems to have been watered back down and the checks are becoming less and less. This bodes well for Trevor because he was a mediocre pitcher before he started using sticky stuff, but if there's anyone that is going to motivate the league to start cracking down on it again... it's Bauer.
I don't think he's going to get signed but I could be wrong. He's a bad press magnet with a molotov cocktail for a mouth and his performance has multiple asterisks.
Kurtz
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Let's get Grossman in here. He starts against lefties (Varsho to CF), KK plays against righties (70%). Works out beautifully imo.
Hellcat
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Is the general sporting world hate towards him because of that stuff he did with that woman in LA?
dubplatepressure
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phillipmike
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To me it isnt like the owner signing him will be doing him any favours. The team would be getting a 3-4+ WAR, former Cy Young award winner pitcher for $720,000. The owner of that team stands to benefit more than Bauer imo as wins means more money and if they get enough, flags fly forever. Even if he is rusty with the time off, that is maybe a 2 WAR pitcher for league minimum and if he is bad you release him. These owners are no saints either plus they are in it for winning and making money. They will try for any competitive edge and we saw that with the Bruins a few months ago signing a prospect with a longshot of making the NHL in Mitchell Miller. They ended up releasing him but it didnt stop them from signing him.
Bauer was outspoken before but that didnt stop 20+ teams going after him in free agency and one giving him the highest AAV ever. He does come with more baggage now but that gets offset by his contract - Its a one year risk at less than a million. We have seen that baggage doesnt matter if you are a good enough player; Ray Lewis, Dany Heatley, Michael Vick, and more recently DeShaun Watson.
Hellcat
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There are three people who have accused him of assault. The stuff he is accused of doing is abhorrent, vile, criminal but he has not been convicted of any crime. I think in todays day people equate accusations with guilt. Generally speaking he appears to be a combustible person. I think we need to let this play out in the courts.
At worse he is a criminal that deserves to be in jail at best he's a freak that likes to do crazy stuff in bed. If he's a crook its up to the justice system to put him in jail, if he is a bedroom freak, that's none of my business.
This article alone would make me pause and ask questions
Trevor Bauer argues new video shows accuser 'smirking and uninjured' after encounter
Trevor Bauer's attorneys argue a new cellphone video obtained from the Pasadena police shows the woman who accused him of sexual assault uninjured.
www.latimes.com
Hellcat
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As much as I agree with you on your post, wouldn't the shadow of having him in the locker room become an anchor for the team? Even though he has not been convicted of a crime, the accusation alone carries weight. You'd have to have one heck of a strong locker room to have that anchor and that combustible personality there. The potential to get a 15 game winner is attractive but I think the shadow he casts, outweighs the potential for wins.
Arbitration day. Jays have a dozen players that need signing. Richards 1.5 mil and jansen 3.5 mil. Should see more today
Mayza 2.1mil
It really depends what you are looking for, wal mart will have some retail, try seeing what your local card store, if you have one. Feel free to pm me though!Where do you buy unopened packs and boxes? Gosh I was a huge collector as a teen. Sold them all.. It was so fun opening packs. I don’t see them anywhere.
phillipmike
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Its very true and i would have those thoughts too. But i bet at least 20 owners are thinking, can i sign him and get away without having to deal with media scrutiny? A vast majority of owner realistically dont care about what a player does, but they do care how it is perceived in media which may hurt them or their product. Im not saying it is right nor i advocate for it but i know this is how they think where many want to sign him and someone will.
Owners are looking down the aisle to see who is the first to get up to buffet line and before they do, so they dont look bad. They rather someone else make the first move and they follow. The difference is there is only one Bauer and i bet many teams are weighing whether or not they could get away with it. Right now owners and even GMs are thinking, "i would be kicking myself if someone signs Bauer, the media doesnt care or it is a circus for a few weeks and he ends up helping them win." They want to be that guy that gets him rather the team that watches another team get him and watch him flourish.
I think what Mitchell Miller did was worse, the Bruins signed him, they got bad press for a few days then they released him. There was some blowback for a few weeks and most people forgot about it and they are still the best team in the NHL. Not how we want things to work, but it is how the world works.
I just look at Mickey Callaway's allegations too. 22 victims reported allegations since 2010, and many under the leadership of Shapiro and Tito Francona and Ross Atkins. Nothing happened, we heard about it for weeks and then we played baseball. Atkins even praised him in 2017 when he gave him a reference for the Mets job.
Shapiro, Atkins admit failures in Cleveland, vow better for Blue Jays
Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins insist they were not aware of any allegations of sexually inappropriate conduct against Mickey Callaway during their time together in Cleveland.
I think the Miller situation works against your point since the public blowback was enough for them to back out of the deal. The more those kinds of things happen the more teams will be hesitant to take the risk in the first place.
There's always a chance a team is ok with it, and as you've mentioned, all it takes is ONE team. But I think over the last couple years in particular we've seen the sport take a more aggressive stance against domestic abusers, and the especially high-profile nature of this one (plus Bauer's reputation even before it happened) is going to keep him out.
Addison Russell spent half a season with the Cubs post-suspension and has only played in Mexico and Korea since despite being just 25 at the time. The Astros stuck with Osuna until he had elbow problems. He's one of the best closers in baseball, still just 27, and spent the last two years dominating in Mexico and Japan. I don't know how much interest major league teams had in him, but it was low enough that he re-signed in Japan this offseason. If anything, I think teams are learning that these PR hits aren't worth it.
phillipmike
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MLBTR predicted $3.7M. I know he has been hurt but $3.5M still seems like a bargain for Jansen. Call me crazy but i still think there is a chance he is moved. Sell high, Kirk catches everyone on the staff very well and you can acquire a true backup.
MLBTR predicted $1.5M.
MLBTR predicted $1.9M.
We can agree on this point. I just think the answer is "no".
From the article:There are three people who have accused him of assault. The stuff he is accused of doing is abhorrent, vile, criminal but he has not been convicted of any crime. I think in todays day people equate accusations with guilt. Generally speaking he appears to be a combustible person. I think we need to let this play out in the courts.
At worse he is a criminal that deserves to be in jail at best he's a freak that likes to do crazy stuff in bed. If he's a crook its up to the justice system to put him in jail, if he is a bedroom freak, that's none of my business.
This article alone would make me pause and ask questions
Trevor Bauer argues new video shows accuser 'smirking and uninjured' after encounter
Trevor Bauer's attorneys argue a new cellphone video obtained from the Pasadena police shows the woman who accused him of sexual assault uninjured.
[Bauer previously had said in court filings that “the pictures did not reflect what she looked like when she left” his house that day, but the video is the first evidence in support of that allegation.
In the woman’s claim, her attorneys said Bauer had discussed the incident in a call taped by police and “did not dispute that he had punched [the woman] and that doing so resulted in black eyes.”
The woman’s attorneys also said Bauer had punched her in the buttocks, vagina and groin, areas not shown in the video. The woman was examined in a hospital later that day, where she was diagnosed with “acute head injury” and “assault by manual strangulation.”]
So what questions are we asking? Because I have a couple.
When we have academic studies which have found that less than 1% of sexual assaults end in a conviction, why are we saying Bauer's criminal status has any bearing on how we should assess the situation?
Am I to believe that someone falsely accused a professional athlete, garnering negative media attention, getting sued for defamation, and going to criminal court all so that they could *possibly* win a later civil case.
phillipmike
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To me the question is will someone sign him and i think the answer is yes. Not will someone sign him and release him or will he stay in the league multiple years. To me its the first hurdle, will someone sign him and you said no. I think someone will.
I dont really see a trend. Russell happened in 2019. Osuna in 2018.
The trend proves if you are good enough, you will get signed;
-Aroldis Chapman (traded for 3 times in 2016 and signed $86M with the Yankees in 2016 and again in 2019 $48M)
-Jose Reyes, wasnt particularly good in 2016 but the Mets gave him contracts in 2016, 2017 and 2018 after he was suspended
-Familia suspended in 2017 and was traded for 2018, signed a 3 year deal after the 2018 season and signed 1 year contracts for 2021 and 2022
-Steven Wright got suspended in 2018 and came back that season. Got a contract extension in 2019
-Odubel Herrera got suspended in 2019, didnt play in 2020 but the Phillies re-signed him twice in 2021 and 2022
-Julio Urias was put on admin leave on May 14, 2019 for domestic battery. Dodgers reinstated him 7 days later. On August 17th he was suspended for 20 games. Since then he has played 2020, 2021 and 2022.
-Domingo German was suspended for the end of 2019, all of 2020 and half of 2021 and he is still active
The allegations against Russell came out publicly on June 7, 2017 - i bet they were know privately before then. He played the rest of the 2017 season. He started the season in 2018 and more allegations came out in September of 2018 where he was put on admin leave and then suspended for 40 game. He played his first game on May 8, 2019 and played the rest of the season. I agree, without the allegations he is likely still in the league but he isnt in Bauer's tier. His last season was 2019 where he put up 0.6 WAR. He still played games after allegations in 2017, investigations in 2018 and suspensions for 2018-19. That was when he was a 2-3 WAR player. His last year in 2019 he was a 0.6 WAR player not worth the risk. If he were a 3-4 WAR player, he is still in the majors.
Osuna got back in right away. And thats the point, prove he is still elite and he will get to stick around. Moment he wasnt elite, the league tossed him aside. I bet after time passes and he keep putting up numbers, he will sign with an MLB team in less than 3 years. When he proved to be a 2 WAR closer they kept him, when he got hurt they released him.
Virtually every active player on this list after Osuna and Russell got back in the majors, including Osuna and Russell.
TheBeastCoast
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I just do not think the rest of baseball values Jansen as much as Toronto believes he is worth. If there was a reasonable deal out there it likely already would have happened and we would have kept Moreno.
phillipmike
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Maybe ill re-phrase it to better personify MLB owners "can i sign him and get away with this blowing over when the season starts?"
Based on history for trades, signings and multiple contract extensions of; Chapman, Reyes, Familia, Wright, Osuna, Russell, Herrera, Urias, and German, the answer is yes.
Also worth noting, teams had the power to suspend players for domestic violence for over 2 decades before the 2015 policy came in and only 2 did it back in 1997 and 2007;
I have a hard time believing that there have been only 2 incidences of domestic violence that warranted suspension in close to 20 years. Clearly teams turned a blind eye to it for almost 2 decades and based on the list provided below they would do it again even if the player got caught.
11 of 15 players that were suspended since the 2015 policy was instituted have played MLB games or signed with an MLB team.
phillipmike
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Unfortunately this is common. Not saying all accusations are false but there a lot people out their willing to make a quick buck this way. Also seen people agree to a sexual encounter and after the fact regret it, claim they were assaulted and the "perpetrator" goes to jail only for the "victim" to tell the truth years later.
Because of the nature of the crime sexual assault is extremely hard to prove so a majority of assault cases dont get pursued. But there are instances of false allegations to make money, "get back at that person" or just done to give better optics in their favor.
We have seen allegations come to light the moment someone becomes famous or they run for office. Many can be true but some are made to make money or even become famous.
Romano a little over 4.5 mil. Varsho 3.05mil. So most are right around the estimates. Thornton and jansen slightly under
phillipmike
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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023
MLB Trade Rumors projects 2023 arbitration salaries for all eligible players. Click for the full list of names and projections.
www.mlbtraderumors.com
2023 MLB Arbitration Tracker
Today is the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures in arbitration -- an annual deadline that leads to …
www.mlbtraderumors.com
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