Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[Discoverer]

Platoon splits the last three years for a potential lineup. There's one bench spot available, and hopefully that's the lefty-mashing OF we all want. McCutchen, please!

vs RHP
1. CF Springer 138
2. SS Bichette 121
3. 1B Vlad 146
4. DH Belt 151
5. C Kirk 124/Jansen 131
6. LF Varsho 112
7. 3B Chapman 108
8. 2B Merrifield 91
9. CF Kiermaier 100
Bench - Biggio, Espinal, Kirk/Jansen

vs LHP
1. CF Springer 132
2. SS Bichette 141
3. 1B Vlad 131
4. DH Kirk 126
5. C Jansen 75
6. 3B Chapman 117
7. 2B Espinal 125
8. LF Merrifield 96
9. CF Varsho 66/Kiermaier 85
Bench - Biggio, Belt, Varsho/Kiermaier

This is definitely one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the league.

 

[Ciao]

I mean...just do the math. Even if he's healthy, how many opportunities will he have to start at 1st and at DH, given that we will already be rotating the latter between Springer, Kirk, Vlad?

Chances are there will be enough injuries among Springer, KK and Belt -- let alone the rest of the gang -- that there will be plenty of playing time for the healthy survivors among them.

We can't predict who will be injured or when, but chances are pretty good given the makeup of this group that someone will be injured sometime -- and perhaps with some frequency.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Eyedea]

Belt is averaging 22 homers/162 games for his career.

Yes but majority of his games came in a park that has been notoriously difficult to hit HRs in. Not to mention two other parks (DBacks, Padres) are bottom tier too. Being a lefty extreme flyball hitter in the ALE has its perks

 

[kb]

So I don't think the Jays have released the new park dimensions yet.

I've always been intrigued by the idea of building in unique dimensions into your park, and then constructing a lineup that excels in those dimensions. Sort of like the Yankees with their short right field or Bosox with the monster.

We've added two big pull hitters in Varsho and Belt and have tons of speed defensively in centre-left. It would make a lot of sense to bring in the right wall some and push out the left/centre wall out a bit.

Agreed. I loved weird dimension ballparks as it had a retro unique feel as opposed to the cookie cutter dimensions. You would have to tailor the defense around that. Tal's hill was a bit of a disaster, but many old parks from the early/mid 1900's had a unique look and feel.

There are several websites that are dedicated to defunct ballparks. I find myself browsing them often.

 

[Ale Brew]

Yes but majority of his games came in a park that has been notoriously difficult to hit HRs in. Not to mention two other parks (DBacks, Padres) are bottom tier too. Being a lefty extreme flyball hitter in the ALE has its perks

He also adjusted his stroke and hit for more power than ever before in 20 and 21. If we believe 22 results were impacted by the injury, it’s likely he’ll continue the trend of hitting for more power.

 

[canucksfan]

Platoon splits the last three years for a potential lineup. There's one bench spot available, and hopefully that's the lefty-mashing OF we all want. McCutchen, please!

vs RHP
1. CF Springer 138
2. SS Bichette 121
3. 1B Vlad 146
4. DH Belt 151
5. C Kirk 124/Jansen 131
6. LF Varsho 112
7. 3B Chapman 108
8. 2B Merrifield 91
9. CF Kiermaier 100
Bench - Biggio, Espinal, Kirk/Jansen

vs LHP
1. CF Springer 132
2. SS Bichette 141
3. 1B Vlad 131
4. DH Kirk 126
5. C Jansen 75
6. 3B Chapman 117
7. 2B Espinal 125
8. LF Merrifield 96
9. CF Varsho 66/Kiermaier 85
Bench - Biggio, Belt, Varsho/Kiermaier

This is definitely one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the league.

Get an outfielder that can mash lefties and it's set.

One area of concern is injuries and I think the Jays realize this so they went out and got crazy depth.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Puckstuff]

Platoon splits the last three years for a potential lineup. There's one bench spot available, and hopefully that's the lefty-mashing OF we all want. McCutchen, please!

vs RHP
1. CF Springer 138
2. SS Bichette 121
3. 1B Vlad 146
4. DH Belt 151
5. C Kirk 124/Jansen 131
6. LF Varsho 112
7. 3B Chapman 108
8. 2B Merrifield 91
9. CF Kiermaier 100
Bench - Biggio, Espinal, Kirk/Jansen

vs LHP
1. CF Springer 132
2. SS Bichette 141
3. 1B Vlad 131
4. DH Kirk 126
5. C Jansen 75
6. 3B Chapman 117
7. 2B Espinal 125
8. LF Merrifield 96
9. CF Varsho 66/Kiermaier 85
Bench - Biggio, Belt, Varsho/Kiermaier

This is definitely one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the league.

Espinal/Biggio have nice RHP/LHP splits. I wouldn’t mind seeing Biggio get some starts as the 2B against RHP and maybe he rebounds.

Merrifield has nice splits against lefties like Espinal, he has a .807 career OPS vs lefties but Espinal is even better and plays better defence. I wonder if they see Merrifield as a 4th outfielder who actually has a better career OPS vs lefties than even Grossman who is the same age and he’s a pretty good outfielder defender as well. Although I wouldn’t say no to Robbie Grossman or another good outfielder if it were an option.

 

[weems]

So I don't think the Jays have released the new park dimensions yet.

I've always been intrigued by the idea of building in unique dimensions into your park, and then constructing a lineup that excels in those dimensions. Sort of like the Yankees with their short right field or Bosox with the monster.

We've added two big pull hitters in Varsho and Belt and have tons of speed defensively in centre-left. It would make a lot of sense to bring in the right wall some and push out the left/centre wall out a bit.

The LF wall where the bullpen is looks to be pushed in and they've added a higher see thru top of the wall. If you look closely, you can even see the height of the wall starts to decline about midway in left center (where the scoreboard sits). Direct center has a lowered wall and I' ve read the hitting backdrop is much better than what we previously had.

RF has the same design with the BP wall pushed out but its more in middle RF compared to the LF wall. It might not seem like a big thing but in this pic you can see up close that it's definitely a noticable amount, I'd guess around 10-12 feet closer. We'll see alot of HR's just get over these walls that wouldnt have before and also many doubles off the top of the wall that would have previously been outs being caught right up against the wall.

 

[Bjindaho]

Triple-Slash Line Conundrum: Voros McCracken Edition

Poor batting average just can’t catch a break.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Essentially when comparing how well AVG/OBP/SLG predict runs scored, they cannot find any evidence that a higher average (given the same OBP and SLG) is better and their dataset actually argued in the opposite direction.

 

[ER89]

Biggio for sixto - who says no? Marlins right?

 

[Ale Brew]

Biggio for sixto - who says no? Marlins right?

Yeah, I think they probably hang up the phone.

 

[Eyedea]

View attachment 634059

The LF wall where the bullpen is looks to be pushed in and they've added a higher see thru top of the wall. If you look closely, you can even see the height of the wall starts to decline about midway in left center (where the scoreboard sits). Direct center has a lowered wall and I' ve read the hitting backdrop is much better than what we previously had.

RF has the same design with the BP wall pushed out but its more in middle RF compared to the LF wall. It might not seem like a big thing but in this pic you can see up close that it's definitely a noticable amount, I'd guess around 10-12 feet closer. We'll see alot of HR's just get over these walls that wouldnt have before and also many doubles off the top of the wall that would have previously been outs being caught right up against the wall.

View attachment 634061

Definitely looks asymmetrical based on the proximity of the opponent's bullpen to CF. RF bows out closer to the foul line whereas LF is closer to the middle (of LF). The scoreboard is where it starts to get a bit awkward, but right centre looks to have a deeper pocket? Could just be the renders but I'm excited to see how the dimensions play.

edit: yeah the full view definitely gives a different impression. I think the renderings might be all over the place though.

There's also been a few cases where organizations (Rangers, Pirates) used a measurement in honour of former players. I thought that was pretty cool and wonder if the Jays did that with any of these walls/distances. They could make RF 329 (Carter) ft out with a 19 (Bautista) ft wall. CF wall could be the same height as Devo/V-Dub (that's a stretch lol)

 

[weems]

Definitely looks asymmetrical based on the proximity of the opponent's bullpen to CF. RF bows out closer to the foul line whereas LF is closer to the middle (of LF). The scoreboard is where it starts to get a bit awkward, but right centre looks to have a deeper pocket? Could just be the renders but I'm excited to see how the dimensions play.

There's also been a few cases where organizations (Rangers, Pirates) used a measurement in honour of former players. I thought that was pretty cool and wonder if the Jays did that with any of these walls/distances.

Here is a better full field view.

LF in the corner is the BP bowed out but in RF it actually has the BP more right center and the furthest spot in the RF corner is a flat wall that will have fans seating.

If they didnt push the walls back and the dimensions are close to the same, LF should be an asbolute joke to hit HR's. This looks like a obvious intentional design based around the teams strenghts and with the Yankees and Baltimore recently reshaping their outfield, the Jays most likely thought we should do the same. Vladdy and Bo will be able to muscle so many HR'S to LF and also hit their fair share of opposite field HR right in that BP power zone.

 

[theaub]

Triple-Slash Line Conundrum: Voros McCracken Edition

Poor batting average just can’t catch a break.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Essentially when comparing how well AVG/OBP/SLG predict runs scored, they cannot find any evidence that a higher average (given the same OBP and SLG) is better and their dataset actually argued in the opposite direction.

Yeah this makes sense considering you would definitely want ISO > AVG

 

[The Iceman]

I don't really see how Biggio relates to Belt starting at all. Biggio was in line to be a bench player. They still had 2 spots left for bench players so they don't need to trade anyone. Even so trading Biggio doesn't make Belt a starter anyway. Belt shouldn't be a starter on a contender after the season he just had. Good teams need serviceable players off the bench. This is what that is hopefully. Start at 1B when Vlad DH's, start at DH every once in a while to give Kirk a day off. Probably starting 2 in every 5 ish days

If Belt gets 400 ABs he is taking them from someone.
I think Biggio takes the brunt here.

 

[phillipmike]

Incredible thread on Kikuchi. Too many tweets to post (19 in total), but this is Chris Black's best one yet imo and here are the highlights;

 

[canucksfan]

Incredible thread on Kikuchi. Too many tweets to post (19 in total), but this is Chris Black's best one yet imo and here are the highlights;

This guys Twitter threads are fantastic

 

[McFly2544]

I caught that thread the other day…seems odd that all it took was moving to the other side of the rubber to produce results

( of course there may be other factors and it was a small sample size but very intriguing nonetheles)

 

[Canada4Gold]

If Belt gets 400 ABs he is taking them from someone.
I think Biggio takes the brunt here.

Wasn't really referring to what AB he takes but the roster spot. Biggio will get less AB but there's still 2 roster spots after Belt(Biggio and probably a 4th OF). So the signing doesn't force Biggio out, unless he gets malcontent about playing less and asks for it. He doesn't have much value so rather than just trading him to trade him he's a ok bat against RHP to have on the bench.

 

[Eyedea]

I caught that thread the other day…seems odd that all it took was moving to the other side of the rubber to produce results

( of course there may be other factors and it was a small sample size but very intriguing nonetheles)

I'd say it's the simplest approach to tinkering with a pitcher's delivery during the season. They did the same with Berrios early in the year by moving him closer to the middle of the rubber to avoid the crossfire delivery when he attacked lefties. I wouldn't say it's the most effective change for them moving forward though. Pitch sequencing and tunneling (consistent, tight release point) are the big factors.

 

[Discoverer]

Wasn't really referring to what AB he takes but the roster spot. Biggio will get less AB but there's still 2 roster spots after Belt(Biggio and probably a 4th OF). So the signing doesn't force Biggio out, unless he gets malcontent about playing less and asks for it. He doesn't have much value so rather than just trading him to trade him he's a ok bat against RHP to have on the bench.

Exactly. Unless you get a return you really like for him, you keep him as depth and he gets into games now and then. Someone needs to take that roster spot, and whoever it is likely isn't going to get much playing time. It might as well be someone you're comfortable plugging into a starting/platoon role temporarily if needed.

There are a handful of injury-prone players on the roster. As much as I like guys like Lopez, Horwitz, and Lukes, having Biggio able to step in when there's an injury and one of those guys backfilling a utility spot is far preferable to having to turn directly to one of them for regular playing time.