Nylander's Holdout is About a lot More Than Willy and the Leafs

[mouser]

This is the document I've seen before.

The CF info is accurate. The issue is with people misunderstanding where the source of lower year 2+ cap comes from. Let's pick a few examples from the CF tweet:

Nylander signs a $6.5m x 6 year contract with equal salaries of $6.5m every season (no signing bonus in year 1)
a) Nylander signs before the season. He is paid $6.5m * 6 = $39m. His year 2+ cap hit is $6.5m
b) Nylander signs on Nov 1st. He is paid $6.5m * 157/186 = $5.49m in year 1 and $32.5m in years 2-6, for a total of $37.99m. His year 2+ cap hit is $6.33m
c) Nylander signs on Dec 1st. He is paid $6.5m * 127/186 = $4.44m in year 1 and $32.5m in years 2-6, for a total of $36.94m. His year 2+ cap hit is $6.16m

Nylander signs a $7m x 6 year contract with equal salaries of $7m every season (no signing bonus in year 1)
d) Nylander signs before the season. He is paid $7m * 6 = $42m. His year 2+ cap hit is $7m
e) Nylander signs on Nov 1st. He is paid $7m * 157/186 = $5.91m in year 1 and $35m in years 2-6 for a total of $40.91m. His year 2+ cap hit is $6.82m
f) Nylander signs on Dec 1st. He is paid $7m * 127/186 = $4.78m in year 1 and $35m in years 2-6 for a total of $39.78m. Hit year 2+ cap hit is $6.63m

Summarizing how much Nylander gets paid in each situation:
a) $39m
b) $37.99m
c) $36.94m
d) $42m
e) $40.91m
f) $39.78m

Summarizing the year 2+ cap hits:
A) $6.5m
B) $6.33m
C) $6.16m
D) $7m
E) $6.82m
F) $6.63m

We can see in every case that the cap hit is equal to the amount of money Nylander pockets from the contract divided by the # of years. A = a/6; B = b/6; C = c/6; D = d/6; E = e/6; F = f/6.

 

[Lempo]

I did some maths of my own a while back based on the scenario that he gets an outrageous signing bonus for year one. Did an excel and everything. You can game the cap hit down maybe a million if you do a really team-unfriendly contract:

So yeah, if we assume he signed at 160 remaining days a $7M x 8 years contract, so $56M full value, and he got paid $12M in the first year, the formula would be for years 2-8:

(12M x 160/180 + 44M)/8 = $6.833M

and the first: $6.833M x 180/160 = $7.687M

If at 140 days remaining: (12M x 140/180 + 44M)/ = $6.666M (2-8)
and 1st: $6.666M x 180/140 = $8.57M

You'd save only a couple of hundred thousands from the honest AAV. It doesn't change much if you sign him for 7M x 5 years either.

You maybe can get it down to $5.8M cap hit for years 2-5 if you sign him for $7M x 5 and make him now miss half of the season. Not worthwile.

 

[Dustin]

The CF info is accurate. The issue is with people misunderstanding where the source of lower year 2+ cap comes from. Let's pick a few examples from the CF tweet:

Nylander signs a $6.5m x 6 year contract with equal salaries of $6.5m every season (no signing bonus in year 1)
a) Nylander signs before the season. He is paid $6.5m * 6 = $39m. His year 2+ cap hit is $6.5m
b) Nylander signs on Nov 1st. He is paid $6.5m * 157/186 = $5.49m in year 1 and $32.5m in years 2-6, for a total of $37.99m. His year 2+ cap hit is $6.33m
c) Nylander signs on Dec 1st. He is paid $6.5m * 127/186 = $4.44m in year 1 and $32.5m in years 2-6, for a total of $36.94m. His year 2+ cap hit is $6.16m

Nylander signs a $7m x 6 year contract with equal salaries of $7m every season (no signing bonus in year 1)
d) Nylander signs before the season. He is paid $7m * 6 = $42m. His year 2+ cap hit is $7m
e) Nylander signs on Nov 1st. He is paid $7m * 157/186 = $5.91m in year 1 and $35m in years 2-6 for a total of $40.91m. His year 2+ cap hit is $6.82m
f) Nylander signs on Dec 1st. He is paid $7m * 127/186 = $4.78m in year 1 and $35m in years 2-6 for a total of $39.78m. Hit year 2+ cap hit is $6.63m

Summarizing how much Nylander gets paid in each situation:
a) $39m
b) $37.99m
c) $36.94m
d) $42m
e) $40.91m
f) $39.78m

Summarizing the year 2+ ) $6.5m
B) $6.33m
C) $6.16m
D) $7m
E) $6.82m
F) $6.63m

We can see in every case that the cap hit is equal to the amount of money Nylander pockets from the contract divided by the # of years. A = a/6; B = b/6; C = c/6; D = d/6; E = e/6; F = f/6.

How does this change if he signs a signing bonus contract similar to Tavares?

 

[mouser]

How does this change if he signs a signing bonus contract similar to Tavares?

If he gets a signing bonuses in year 1 then simply add that full amount into the total amount of money he is paid. The whole CF formula is about calculating the real amount of money Nylander takes home.

Let's break down 3 scenarios of a $7m x 6 year contract:

a) Signs before season. Doesn't matter how much of the contract is salary or signing bonuses.
b) Signs on Dec 1st. year 1 salary is $7m, no signing bonuses
c) Signs on Dec 1st, year 1 salary is $1m with a $6m year 1 signing bonus.

a) Nylander makes $7m * 6 = $42m
b) Nylander makes $7m * 127/186 + $7m*5 = $39.78m
c) Nylander makes $1m * 127/186 + $6m (signing bonus) + $7m * 5 = $41.68m

Cap hits for years 2+ are:
a) $42m / 6 = $7m
b) $39.78m / 6 = $6.63m
c) $41.68m / 6 = $6.95m

 

[mouser]

I did some maths of my own a while back based on the scenario that he gets an outrageous signing bonus for year one. Did an excel and everything. You can game the cap hit down maybe a million if you do a really team-unfriendly contract:

Don't divide any year 1 signing bonuses by 160/180. The CF formula doesn't work if there's a signing bonus involved. Here's the CF formula:

Cap hit after the first year = (First year salary * season days remaining / total season days + contract value remaining) / contract years

Note the formula only says "first year salary", not "first year salary and signing bonus". If a contract includes a year 1 signing bonus then the formula needs to be altered to:

Cap hit after the first year = (First year salary * season days remaining / total season days + first year signing bonus + contract value remaining) / contract years


edit: or alternatively, it could be argued that first year signing bonuses already fall into the "contract value remaining" bucket as it doesn't explicitly say year 2+ contract value remaining. Any year 1 bonuses like roster or reporting bonus would also fall into that bucket.

 

[Lempo]

Don't divide any year 1 signing bonuses by 160/180. The CF formula doesn't work if there's a signing bonus involved. Here's the CF formula:

Cap hit after the first year = (First year salary * season days remaining / total season days + contract value remaining) / contract years

Note the formula only says "first year salary", not "first year salary and signing bonus". If a contract includes a year 1 signing bonus then the formula needs to be altered to:

Cap hit after the first year = (First year salary * season days remaining / total season days + first year signing bonus + contract value remaining) / contract years

So the sizeable 1st year signing bonus would count in full, which would cause the AAV for year 2 to last one to be higher than it would be without a 1st year signing bonus?

So, you don't pay Willy any actual money without that it counts in his later years' cap hit.

 

[mouser]

So the sizeable 1st year signing bonus would count in full, which would cause the AAV for year 2 to last one to be higher than it would be without a 1st year signing bonus?

So, you don't pay Willy any actual money without that it counts in his later years' cap hit.

Yeah, everything he gets paid is reflected in the year 2+ cap hits. In retrospective, the CF formula works fine, it's just understanding what they're saying. "contract value remaining" isn't "contract value remaining in years 2+", it's everything in the contract other then year 1 salary.

So "contract value remaining" includes
- All signing, roster and reporting bonuses, including any of those bonuses in year 1.
- All salary paid in years 2+ of the contract.

 

[TOGuy14]

Due to the nature and speed in which the NHL is evolving this contract is about a lot more than just William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The last several years the league has seen an incredible influx of young talent that have proven to be impact players much sooner than previous decades. This season might see more players in the first 5 years of their pro career in the top 60 of scoring than ever before. Traditionally players coming off an ELC are usually signed to reasonable mid term mid cost deals, usually a contract that doesn't end in them being a UFA. That third or fourth contract is most often seen as the payday, as these players have payed their dues and established themselves after many years of productive play. There are some notable exceptions(McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel) that can be said to have changed the market, but for the most part players of this caliber aren't usually getting 8 years. Some recent examples of players on good money deals during their RFA status and what are likely their prime production years are; Mark Scheifle, Nathan MacKinnon, Alexander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Filip Forsberg, and even John Tavares. Some players sign smaller bridge contracts during these years like Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Nikita Kucherov, and Max Pacioretty. The contracts these players signed coming off their ELCs can be said to be typical of the tradition in the NHL of placing an emphasis on "earning" a big money deal through consistent production during the RFA status.

What Nylander and his camp are recognizing is that having this kind of talented youth producing like a premier player in the NHL has become more valuable than ever before. The NHL has trended towards youth, speed, and skill over veterans who might provide more "presence". With more young players proving their worth in shorter time periods and this contract being situated in the highest of profile markets in Toronto, it will have an important impact on setting the market for the next batch of 60+ point RFAs, of which there are certain to be more and more of around the league. Getting your young talent on good term and good money is of utmost importance to an NHL franchise in a hard cap system, even with that cap increasing. Nylander and his agent are absolutely right to be holding Dubas's feet over the fire and I'm sure the rest of the league is very interested in the outcome. This is a very important contract in modelling what some of the League's other young talent are going to be looking for over the next 5+ years. Will they be willing to take less just because they are "young" and are still Restricted Free Agents? Or will they demand to be valued for what they are as possibly the most vital pieces of an NHL team's future?

Leafs are indirectly negotiating the Marner and Matthews contract by dealing with Willy now.

If Willy gets 8+ the Leafs whole salary structure goes bananas.

Guarantee you league support is behind Dubas on this one, Nylander has linked his value to one outlier contract (Drai) signed by the worst GM in hockey (Chia)

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Said it before
Nylander camp isn’t going accept a a lesser deal because the leafs signed a 28 years old free agent

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Said it before
Nylander camp isn’t going accept a a lesser deal because the leafs signed a 28 years old free agent

But the Leafs also shouldn't accept a greater deal because they signed a 28 year old free agent. So it just depends on if Nylander is asking for a "greater deal" or if Dubas is asking for a "lesser deal" (or both).

 

[A1LeafNation]

Let's go back to your original post:



This is inconsistent with all the CF articles. In every example the longer the player waited the less money they received from their contract. The year 2+ cap hits are lower because the player received less.

Note: none of the CF examples use year 1 signing bonuses. If they incorporated that into the formula then the year 2+ cap hits would be higher.

Leafs can offer more money by the day.

All they care about is the 2+ years cap hit.

 

[Jmo89]

Said it before
Nylander camp isn’t going accept a a lesser deal because the leafs signed a 28 years old free agent

I agree. What I disagree with though (and granted it's a rumor), is the Leafs were never giving him 8M a year. I'm also quite sure that about 99% of HF would have said he's not an 8M/yr player prior to this. Tavares doesn't change that.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

I agree. What I disagree with though (and granted it's a rumor), is the Leafs were never giving him 8M a year. I'm also quite sure that about 99% of HF would have said he's not an 8M/yr player prior to this. Tavares doesn't change that.

Maybe it dies for Nylabsr’s camp
Who knows

 

[Jmo89]

Maybe it dies for Nylabsr’s camp
Who knows

It may have, which is why they are where there are, right?

Will Nye is probably my favorite Leaf, but I hope the team doesn't give him 8M. There is nothing suggesting he is at the moment and not really any comparables that he should get that much.

 

[Guffman]

Not sure I buy the logic of Nylander deserving more money. A 20 goal/60 point player wanting $8M AAV? He really doesn’t have leverage. He’s an RFA and cannot reasonably get alternate offers. It’s also just the regular season and the Leafs are doing well enough.

I would go hard on Nylander and not budge. Why waste too much cap space on RFA years?

 

[theblackadder]

I did some maths of my own a while back based on the scenario that he gets an outrageous signing bonus for year one. Did an excel and everything. You can game the cap hit down maybe a million if you do a really team-unfriendly contract:

how did you get so many likes?

 

[Brobust]

Yup.

This is also about Aho, Rantanen, Tkachuk etc etc etc.

 

[Newsworthy]

I still believe a players worth is what a team is willing to give him. As a free agent it's quite possible that Will would be paid close to $8 million. Since he's not in that position Toronto holds the cards. If Leafs were smart they would offer about $7 million per. I think that's a fair number.

 

[Spawn]

I think him not getting a contract this year would ultimately result in him signing short 1-2 year contracts until he's a UFA or until he gets traded to a team willing to pay him. Just my uneducated guess.

Who knows.

Giordano went to Russia for a season because he didn't get a contract offer he liked from the Flames. Since then he's suited up in over 700 games for the team and is their captain.

 

[Lempo]

how did you get so many likes?

People stalk me and want me to know it to intimidate me.

 

[Riddum]

Seems like a rookie GM way in over his head. Shanahan making dumb comments probably didn't help matters.

Shanahan is a P.O.S. Just look at his history in the league.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I would be surprised if NYlander continued his holdout long term. He's losing quite a bit of money each passing day.

He has rich daddy, in case he runs out of money.

 

[Syckle78]

I’m explaining it works how cap friendly has outlined it lol.

It's funny when people put lol on their post while getting schooled. Do yourself a favor and stop arguing with mouser you look even worse than usual.

 

[A1LeafNation]

It's funny when people put lol on their post while getting schooled. Do yourself a favor and stop arguing with mouser you look even worse than usual.

how so?

 

[Crede777]

At this point there is only one buyer and that is Toronto. So Toronto can essentially dictate the price.

Either Nylander plays for Toronto at Toronto's price or he doesn't play in the NHL. Yes he could demand a trade but that won't force Toronto to trade him.

It seems like the Leafs are willing to sit on him and let him watch his NHL career dwindle until he is willing to accept their offer.