Nylander's Holdout is About a lot More Than Willy and the Leafs

[Lempo]

This is has nothing to do with anything more than GREED! He had 2 good seasons, and is being offered good money for that, he simply wants a LOT more, end of story!

NHL is a business where the owners will make away with all the money Nylander leaves on the table when negotiating for the price tag of his services.

 

[Oddbob]

How much was the good money that was offered?

I honestly don't know, but at worst it was 5-5.5 X 6-8 years in a slight low-ball by TOR, but I have to believe it was at least 6-6.5 on a 6+ year deal. That is similar to Pastrnak's deal who seems to be made as a comparable player in stats so far, before he got his recent deal. Nylander is worth maybe slight inflation to Pastrnak's deal, since it has been 1 or 2 years. 8 million is ludicrous for two 60 pts seasons, unless the deal was for 2 or 3 years. Reality is, he is a good player, I don't doubt that, but he also plays with Marner and Matthews quite a bit, so his production is going to be skewed up a little because of it.

Imagine he gets traded and someone locks him up on an 8X8 for example. Imagine that team is a lesser team, without the firepower the Leafs enjoy, he is going to have to do really well to keep getting 60 pts or more. Just because he has two 60 pts, doesn't mean he will keep that up, young players don't and many times don't continue to keep improving. To me he needs at least another 2 years of that kind of production to ask for that kind of money. Also, Nylander is not so good and special that he deserves to skip past the usually lower post entry level deal that everyone else seems to have no problem taking. Ehlers, Pastrnak and Larkin are just 3 players that didn't sit out for a little bit more money. They took their next deals and moved on.

Most players that sit out, lose out in the end, both in terms of that years production and the term they end up with!

 

[Oddbob]

NHL is a business where the owners will make away with all the money Nylander leaves on the table when negotiating for the price tag of his services.

Let's not act like he was being offered peanuts here! If the Leafs said, here is a 4 million per year for 8 year deal, than I understand his holdout, but that is far from reality, almost guaranteed. Reality is, he got offered comparable money for comparable players! The owners make a lot of money, however they also have to pay for everything as well and take all the risk if they lose money. The players just have to play, that is all!

 

[Slot]

Leafs hold all the NHL cards here. Rumour has it that the Leafs offered between 6-6.5 x 6 years buying 1 UFA year. This is market value for a 2 season (accrued to UFA) pro of Nylander's calibre. Nylander has no arbitration rights. He has a choice of signing what's in front of him or not playing in the NHL.

Trading an unsigned Nylander will net nearly nothing as then another team will have to pay his inflated demand or watch him sit in Sweden and sulk. No team will give good assets for that.

Sign and trade is an option but if he signs for an inflated amount he's now a cap liability going into a CBA negotiation and again teams won't give up elite assets for that.

Toronto hold the keys to his NHL future. If he wants to play in the NHL before he turns 27 he will sign with Toronto for the contract that Toronto gives him. If this drags past Dec 1 I'm quite sure that the next contract the Leafs deliver to his agent will have a much reduced dollar amount attached to it.

I think Nylander is getting some very bad advice from people he trusts very much.

 

[Oddbob]

Leafs hold all the NHL cards here. Rumour has it that the Leafs offered between 6-6.5 x 6 years buying 1 UFA year. This is market value for a 2 season (accrued to UFA) pro of Nylander's calibre. Nylander has no arbitration rights. He has a choice of signing what's in front of him or not playing in the NHL.

Trading an unsigned Nylander will net nearly nothing as then another team will have to pay his inflated demand or watch him sit in Sweden and sulk. No team will give good assets for that.

Sign and trade is an option but if he signs for an inflated amount he's now a cap liability going into a CBA negotiation and again teams won't give up elite assets for that.

Toronto hold the keys to his NHL future. If he wants to play in the NHL before he turns 27 he will sign with Toronto for the contract that Toronto gives him. If this drags past Dec 1 I'm quite sure that the next contract the Leafs deliver to his agent will have a much reduced dollar amount attached to it.

I think Nylander is getting some very bad advice from people he trusts very much.

Very much agree with this! Not only would they have to pay his crappy demand, but would have to give up very good assets if TOR was willing to move him, as otherwise they won't move him. It would be bad asset management to trade for Nylander, unless he gets no more than 7 per 6 to 8 years, as otherwise you both overpay and lose key people or picks!

 

[FMichael]

Leafs hold all the NHL cards here. Rumour has it that the Leafs offered between 6-6.5 x 6 years buying 1 UFA year. This is market value for a 2 season (accrued to UFA) pro of Nylander's calibre. Nylander has no arbitration rights. He has a choice of signing what's in front of him or not playing in the NHL.

Trading an unsigned Nylander will net nearly nothing as then another team will have to pay his inflated demand or watch him sit in Sweden and sulk. No team will give good assets for that.

Sign and trade is an option but if he signs for an inflated amount he's now a cap liability going into a CBA negotiation and again teams won't give up elite assets for that.

Toronto hold the keys to his NHL future. If he wants to play in the NHL before he turns 27 he will sign with Toronto for the contract that Toronto gives him. If this drags past Dec 1 I'm quite sure that the next contract the Leafs deliver to his agent will have a much reduced dollar amount attached to it.

I think Nylander is getting some very bad advice from people he trusts very much.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - Dubas needs to continue following Yzerman's approach when Drouin went unsigned.

Sooner, or later Nylander, and Co will realize that they really don't have any leverage here, and they need to put their ego$ a$ide in order to get a deal done (be it playing for the Leafs, or a sign, and trade with another franchise).

 

[Dicky113]

While I agree, the Leafs are definitely offering Nylander a fair to more than fair deal. He's balking at what is said to be a $6M-$6.5M/year offer from Toronto, which is strange considering that a comparable player in Ehlers makes $6M/year, while a clearly superior player in Pastrnak makes $6.66M/year.

Yep. He lost his leverage and credibility the moment pasta signed that deal.

 

[FMichael]

It's not a hold out at all. 2 sides arent able to agree, but putting it solely on Nylander is garbage

Only thing is Nylander has no leverage here, and regardless of what he, his daddy, and his agent thinks he's worth - chances are he's not gonna get it right now if he wants to wear the Maple Leaf jersey.

Now if a sign, and trade were made - then maybe he might get what he thinks he's worth...Maybe.

 

[FMichael]

While I agree, the Leafs are definitely offering Nylander a fair to more than fair deal. He's balking at what is said to be a $6M-$6.5M/year offer from Toronto, which is strange considering that a comparable player in Ehlers makes $6M/year, while a clearly superior player in Pastrnak makes $6.66M/year.

While I agree 100% with what you're saying - I'm certain Nylander, and his agent are telling Dubas that those deals were made a few years ago, and as of right this moment his value, and with the cap rising he'll take nothing less than $8 million for 8 years...

 

[Dicky113]

While I agree 100% with what you're saying - I'm certain Nylander, and his agent are telling Dubas that those deals were made a few years ago, and as of right this moment his value, and with the cap rising he'll take nothing less than $8 million for 8 years...

If I was Toronto, and a 2 year, 20 G 60 P kid demanded I pay him 8 million for 8 years, I would lol and then say, oh wait, your serious?

 

[FMichael]

If I was Toronto, and a 2 year, 20 G 60 P kid demanded I pay him 8 million for 8 years, I would lol and then say, oh wait, your serious?

But they are serious...That's the humor of it all...Years ago many NHL'ers had to play 4 to 6 years before they got their payday, and then the contracts they signed were usually no more than 3, or 4 years.

Kids these days

 

[A1LeafNation]

No. This is one of those misunderstandings I've been trying to stomp out with limited success.

If we assume Nylander has the option of signing today, vs signing sometime in the future before the Dec 1st deadline. There are three possible outcomes of delaying the Nylander signing:

A) Nylander makes more money; Leafs have a higher cap hit in year 2+.

B) Nylander makes less money; Leafs have a lower cap hit in year 2+.

C) Nylander makes the same amount of money; Leafs have the same cap hit in year 2+.

There is no magical fourth option where Nylander makes more money and the Leafs have a lower year 2+ cap hit by delaying a Nylander signing. The Year 2+ cap hit is entirely based on precisely how much money Nylander ends up with in his pocket.

Wrong, Leafs can afford to pay him more and more by the day because his 2+ year cap hit will be a number they can work with.

Suggestion: Look at cap friendly.

 

[Divine]

 

[DFC]

I think the problem with the premise is that, even though young players have raised their collective value in the regular season, the game changes in the playoffs, and, a lot of times, they either wilt or take a backseat to a more experienced teammate.

Cup winners in recent years really haven't been led by 21-23 year-olds the way the regular season teams have been. Your best playoff performers still seem to be in the 25-32 bracket, probably because clutching and grabbing become more acceptable, and, just like in the 90s and early 2000s, suddenly experience becomes a big deal to work through all the BS. But, if the goal is winning the cup, some of these guys oozing talent are gonna have to show what they can do when it counts before taking all their team's money.

 

[glucker]

Leafs fans are gonna be all over you soon enough... good luck.

Other than signalling that you shouldn’t be taken seriously, what was the purpose of this post?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No. This is one of those misunderstandings I've been trying to stomp out with limited success.

If we assume Nylander has the option of signing today, vs signing sometime in the future before the Dec 1st deadline. There are three possible outcomes of delaying the Nylander signing:

A) Nylander makes more money; Leafs have a higher cap hit in year 2+.

B) Nylander makes less money; Leafs have a lower cap hit in year 2+.

C) Nylander makes the same amount of money; Leafs have the same cap hit in year 2+.

There is no magical fourth option where Nylander makes more money and the Leafs have a lower year 2+ cap hit by delaying a Nylander signing. The Year 2+ cap hit is entirely based on precisely how much money Nylander ends up with in his pocket.

Doesn’t it make it so that the closer to dec 1st this is signed, his first year cap hit becomes significantly higher than his aav, which makes his 2+ cap hit a bit lower than his aav?

I don’t remember the specifics, but this is talked about a lot on the leafs forum, and I think you’re misinformed.

 

[Crosbyfan]

Nylander is not a UFA. He is an unsigned Leaf Asset as per the CBA. Toronto doesn't care about the money, they care about the Cap space and what they see as best for their Team, as they should, under the current CBA and likely future CBA. Maybe there is a team out there that is willing to give up assets to give him what he wants...I just don't see it...many care about the money more than the Cap space, but either way he is looking at RFA money...so who is going to give up assets and sign him as an RFA for what he wants?

 

[Stealth JD]

The issue may impact more people than just the Leafs and Nylander...but that doesn’t make this negotiation about anything more than a disagreement between to two parties involved.

Nobody is fighting for the future of the second and third contract across the league...but these results will be used as precedence in future arguments. Big difference.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

I dont blame him. I wouldn't want to take a paycut so my coworkers (Marner, Matthews) could get paid more either.

Especially when I'm better than one of those co-workers or very, very similar

 

[Jaska]

Is it possible that a KHL offer is on table?

 

[Newsworthy]

It's an interesting situation because his agent is the same one Guaudreau has and when Gaudreau got his contract signed it was pretty much last minute before the season started, but Gaudreau signed.

Gaudreau makes $6.75 mil and most definitely should be making more in contrast to what he actually does out there, but there are a lot of star players at that $6 mil threshold like Pasta, Monahan, Ehlers, Scheifele, MacKinnon, Barkov, etc.

If I were to guess it is a combination of Draisaitl's horrific overpayment of a contract + Toronto giving Tavaers $11mil (which he would have gotten from any team, some even more) so Nylander wants $8 mil and isn't budging at all and for Toronto it is just an overpayment and I'd agree. If Nylander would take $6 mil like every else around him he'd be signed already.

The Leafs should offer $7 million and no more. Everyone is assuming he wants $8million but how do we know that?
As a free agent I would gladly give Nylander $7 million for 7 years.
Less not forget that lesser players are also being paid more. A guy like Jordan Eberle for instance.

 

[joe dirte]

Negotiation strategy from Dubas to Nylander is:

The longer you wait the more money you will get, all I care about is your cap hit. I will give you all signing bonus money this year so you lose as little as possible.

Why would Dubas do that? That makes absolutely no sense.

 

[joe dirte]

They are

No they're not. Not at all. Any cap savings would be this year and they have 13 million in cap space this year. Their cap crunch is next year and it wouldn't make one penny of a difference for next year.

 

[Morbo]

Tampa is ahead in points and has also played less games. Is that too hard for you to understand.

you used the wrong phrase. it's ok, no need to be embarassed.

 

[joe dirte]

NHL is a business where the owners will make away with all the money Nylander leaves on the table when negotiating for the price tag of his services.

The leafs wont walk away leaving any money unspent.