Nylander's Holdout is About a lot More Than Willy and the Leafs

[traparatus]

Due to the nature and speed in which the NHL is evolving this contract is about a lot more than just William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The last several years the league has seen an incredible influx of young talent that have proven to be impact players much sooner than previous decades. This season might see more players in the first 5 years of their pro career in the top 60 of scoring than ever before. Traditionally players coming off an ELC are usually signed to reasonable mid term mid cost deals, usually a contract that doesn't end in them being a UFA. That third or fourth contract is most often seen as the payday, as these players have payed their dues and established themselves after many years of productive play. There are some notable exceptions(McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel) that can be said to have changed the market, but for the most part players of this caliber aren't usually getting 8 years. Some recent examples of players on good money deals during their RFA status and what are likely their prime production years are; Mark Scheifle, Nathan MacKinnon, Alexander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Filip Forsberg, and even John Tavares. Some players sign smaller bridge contracts during these years like Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Nikita Kucherov, and Max Pacioretty. The contracts these players signed coming off their ELCs can be said to be typical of the tradition in the NHL of placing an emphasis on "earning" a big money deal through consistent production during the RFA status.

What Nylander and his camp are recognizing is that having this kind of talented youth producing like a premier player in the NHL has become more valuable than ever before. The NHL has trended towards youth, speed, and skill over veterans who might provide more "presence". With more young players proving their worth in shorter time periods and this contract being situated in the highest of profile markets in Toronto, it will have an important impact on setting the market for the next batch of 60+ point RFAs, of which there are certain to be more and more of around the league. Getting your young talent on good term and good money is of utmost importance to an NHL franchise in a hard cap system, even with that cap increasing. Nylander and his agent are absolutely right to be holding Dubas's feet over the fire and I'm sure the rest of the league is very interested in the outcome. This is a very important contract in modelling what some of the League's other young talent are going to be looking for over the next 5+ years. Will they be willing to take less just because they are "young" and are still Restricted Free Agents? Or will they demand to be valued for what they are as possibly the most vital pieces of an NHL team's future?

You are making many statements as if they are confirmed/studied facts. Are they facts or just your suspicions?

I am looking through the list of recent Stanley Cup winners/finalists and it's not 20 year olds on ELCs that are driving the bus.

 

[SwaggySpungo]

i dont think he cares too be honest, he's willing to hold out to get his money. i'm guessing there's a massive gap between what he wants and what the leafs are willing to give and for that reason IMO he can risk missing an entire season.

Yeah, that's what players thought back in 2004.

Oops.

 

[Dustin]

It'll keep him in shape, and dominating Sweden will help his development (nowhere to the level of the NHL of course), it's the 3rd best league after the NHL/KHL

I understand that but the point here is Nylander wants to play in the NHL. Any holdout that ends up forcing him to play for another league is not a win for him or the organization really. That is the epitome of a lose lose situation. The fact is the Leafs hold all the cards here for him if he wants to continue to play in the NHL.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Nylander is not holding out.

He does not have a contract therefore cannot play.

 

[ottawa]

I understand that but the point here is Nylander wants to play in the NHL. Any holdout that ends up forcing him to play for another league is not a win for him or the organization really. That is the epitome of a lose lose situation. The fact is the Leafs hold all the cards here for him if he wants to continue to play in the NHL.

If he signs to whatever contract the leafs want, then he's losing X amount for 6 years...that's a lot of money. Even if they're apart on a 'small' amount like 500k, that's still 3 million over 6 years.

The problem is, he'll probably be close to having already given up ~3m by the time January rolls around. I think it's more about the principle with him, but who knows. They've done a good job keeping leaked information out of the media.

 

[Dustin]

Nylander is not holding out.

He does not have a contract therefore cannot play.

The verbiage is off here. I get people want to point to a party an state that they are the bad guy but the reality is this is a negotiation and both parties are and should be looking out for themselves.

 

[Dustin]

If he signs to whatever contract the leafs want, then he's losing X amount for 6 years...that's a lot of money.

It is and if he doesn't he faces the very real possibility of not playing in the NHL this year and beyond if the Leafs want. It's not a simple matter.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Seems like a rookie GM way in over his head. Shanahan making dumb comments probably didn't help matters.

Possibly but maybe Dubas doesn't want to start off looking like a push-over either.

Shanny shouldn't have made those comments, I was surprised by it tbh but maybe it really doesn't matter much. I don't expect the Leafs to mess around with Matthews and Marner like this so maybe they're just trying to set the table a bit and maybe it works or maybe it doesn't. Maybe it backfires too but I highly doubt it.

 

[ottawa]

It is and if he doesn't he faces the very real possibility of not playing in the NHL this year and beyond if the Leafs want. It's not a simple matter.

I think him not getting a contract this year would ultimately result in him signing short 1-2 year contracts until he's a UFA or until he gets traded to a team willing to pay him. Just my uneducated guess.

 

[ImNeverWrong]

Yeah, that's what players thought back in 2004.

Oops.

strawman argument

 

[Dustin]

I think him not getting a contract this year would ultimately result in him signing short 1-2 year contracts until he's a UFA or until he gets traded to a team willing to pay him. Just my uneducated guess.

Again the problem with that is if there is a lockout he could face the same scenario of being without a contract while the NHLPA and NHL figure out their CBA. Furthermore if more concessions are made during that CBA Nylander could lose out on those as well. Some have indicated that the NHL may discuss player signing bonuses or at the very least loading contracts up as mostly signing bonus. I'm sure Nylander would much prefer to sign a long term contract that is more akin to Tavares' contract and I'm sure the Leafs would have no problem paying him that way as well. If that gets lost during CBA negotiations it could impact his contract.

 

[hector morrison]

i dont think he cares too be honest, he's willing to hold out to get his money. i'm guessing there's a massive gap between what he wants and what the leafs are willing to give and for that reason IMO he can risk missing an entire season.

What? Burn off a year at 22/23 yr s of age? Doesn't seem wise. Bound to lose something in that time,other than money. Perhaps some other player gets noticed or maybe he gets traded to a rebuilding team,with no hope of a cup for many years. Maybe his numbers aren't as good without the likes of an Auston Matthews as a center. Great big waste of time in my book!

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I think him not getting a contract this year would ultimately result in him signing short 1-2 year contracts until he's a UFA or until he gets traded to a team willing to pay him. Just my uneducated guess.

I personally don't understand why he would go that route. Why not just take a huge, guaranteed contract around $45-$50 million dollars?

Is it possible he wants a bigger role that he can't have on the Leafs aka center potential? He's going to be on the wing for the Leafs. That's the only thing I can imagine would make it logical for him not to sign a long term deal and lock down a huge contract and in that case it would seem money is not the issue.

I have no idea just speculating.

 

[Analyst365]

The league has taken advantage of young players for far too long by giving most of them a dirt cheap bridge deal. Only a handful get a big payday on their 2nd contract so good on Nylander for fighting what he thinks he deserves.

Yeah every kid should get paid top money for something he may or may not do, that's why I was hired as a CEO out of high school, because man those grades in social studies were something else.

 

[ottawa]

Again the problem with that is if there is a lockout he could face the same scenario of being without a contract while the NHLPA and NHL figure out their CBA. Furthermore if more concessions are made during that CBA Nylander could lose out on those as well. Some have indicated that the NHL may discuss player signing bonuses or at the very least loading contracts up as mostly signing bonus. I'm sure Nylander would much prefer to sign a long term contract that is more akin to Tavares' contract and I'm sure the Leafs would have no problem paying him that way as well. If that gets lost during CBA negotiations it could impact his contract.

That's a good point.

 

[SwaggySpungo]

strawman argument

Ummm... no.

The claim was Nylander can lose a season because he will surely make up for it by signing a big contract next year and make up for any lost wages.

Didn't work out so well for the players who believed that in 2004, now did it?

If he sits out an entire NHL season, his value likely goes DOWN, not up.

 

[ottawa]

I personally don't understand why he would go that route. Why not just take a huge, guaranteed contract around $45-$50 million dollars?

Is it possible he wants a bigger role that he can't have on the Leafs aka center potential? He's going to be on the wing for the Leafs. That's the only thing I can imagine would make it logical for him not to sign a long term deal and lock down a huge contract and in that case it would seem money is not the issue.

I have no idea just speculating.

Rumour is he was offered Pastrnak money so if money wasn't an issue, he would have taken that offer. I personally don't see anything wrong with him fighting for what he thinks he's worth, it's his right to do so and any Leafs fan (most) that disagrees with him has never been in a position to negotiate for a higher salary (it's not fun). On another note, if he was truly offered a contract in that range, he should sign it while smiling ear to ear.

But maybe he is fighting for a defined role, who knows.

 

[ottawa]

Yeah every kid should get paid top money for something he may or may not do, that's why I was hired as a CEO out of high school, because man those grades in social studies were something else.

If you've proven you could be a good CEO out of high school, then I 100% believe you should fight for that. Do you disagree with me, and why?

Also, anyone can be a CEO, it doesn't take much other than some start up money to start your own company...it might just not e for a company worth putting on your resume and you probably won't get rich quick (or at all).

 

[Dustin]

That's a good point.

It's unique. When you look at the last group of holdouts, I feel there's more intangibles to this than any of the others under this CBA.

 

[Analyst365]

If you've proven you could be a good CEO out of high school, then I 100% believe you should fight for that. Do you disagree with me, and why?

Also, anyone can be a CEO, it doesn't take much other than some start up money to start your own company...it might just not e for a company worth putting on your resume and you probably won't get rich quick (or at all).

So Nylander has proven he is CEO top quality? Alexandre Daigle was better in his first two seasons, he had first overall on his resume. Hilarious! Paul Byron numbers aren't that hard to come by outside of leaf land ...

 

[pcruz]

If you've proven you could be a good CEO out of high school, then I 100% believe you should fight for that. Do you disagree with me, and why?

Also, anyone can be a CEO, it doesn't take much other than some start up money to start your own company...it might just not e for a company worth putting on your resume and you probably won't get rich quick (or at all).

I strongly disagree.
You can’t prove anything about being a good CEO out of high school. It’s impossible to have the people skills, technical knowledge, and personal plus technical experience at such a young age.
You also have no track record to be able to prove something you haven’t been a part of yet in your life.

Just like Nylander. He’s not proven much of anything. Other than that he can score 20 goals and pick up 60 points while playing on a line with one of the best players in the league.

 

[Leafidelity]

Kapanen is producing and the Leafs are winning. He's losing money by the day. What leverage?

 

[Taluss]

Personally if I’m Dubas I’m asking myself why I’d pay someone who obv isn’t 100% deticated to the team 6-8 mill when Kap is preforming at a really good pace (not sure the difference between him and Nyl on Matthews line.) Id rather trade at this point. He has the honour of being on a cup contending team and getting more then Pasta is ridiculous. If he’s being that stubborn he should gtfo imo.

 

[ottawa]

So Nylander has proven he is CEO top quality? Alexandre Daigle was better in his first two seasons, he had first overall on his resume. Hilarious! Paul Byron numbers aren't that hard to come by outside of leaf land ...

Yes

 

[ottawa]

I strongly disagree.
You can’t prove anything about being a good CEO out of high school. It’s impossible to have the people skills, technical knowledge, and personal plus technical experience at such a young age.
You also have no track record to be able to prove something you haven’t been a part of yet in your life.

Just like Nylander. He’s not proven much of anything. Other than that he can score 20 goals and pick up 60 points while playing on a line with one of the best players in the league.

What would you say he's worth? Because Dubas values him fairly high (rumour is Pastrnak money). Sounds like he's proven something alright.