Nylander's Holdout is About a lot More Than Willy and the Leafs

[DCHabitant]

I can't wait to move on from this to people crying about cap circumvention when the Leafs sign him on Dec 1st.

How would they be circumventing the cap? I'm not understanding. Bonuses count against the cap. So why is it beneficial to wait and frontload the contract?

 

[Egghead1999]

I think the leafs backed themselves into a cap hit corner signing first Marleau and then Tavares. This year the problem is Nylander. Next year it's Matthews and Marner and to a lesser extent Kapanen. I can see them giving away a bunch for someone to take Marleau but it still doesn't leave them able to address the D situation and sign he RFAs

Marleau has 6.25M cap hit next year but only 1.25M in real $

 

[meefer]

@mouser ... thanks for those breakdowns, clarifies things for me.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Leafs are gonna have the chicago problem soon just with no cups to talk about.

There will be cups.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Hes better than Larkin lol. He's more comparable to a highly skilled winger which pastrnak is. Again just because someone makes a sweetheart deal doesn't mean you can force everyone else to as well.

I'm sure dubas is saying he's not going to be an idiot just because Chiarelli signed Draisaitl for 8.5 million.

Nylander could be looking at Mark stone that is a more reasonable comparison.

i mean its all potential but hes a rfa that doesnt count for much, his 60 point season are in line with ehlers and lakin and not so much pasta tbh.

 

[Divine]

How would they be circumventing the cap? I'm not understanding. Bonuses count against the cap. So why is it beneficial to wait and frontload the contract?

It has nothing to do with frontloading. The later a player signs, the higher his cap hit will be in year 1, and lower the subsequent years. Roughly 400-500K lower I believe if he signs on Dec 1st.

 

[DCHabitant]

Leafs can offer more money by the day.

All they care about is the 2+ years cap hit.

Offering more money RAISES year 2+ cap hit. Why are you not getting that?

 

[A1LeafNation]

Offering more money RAISES year 2+ cap hit. Why are you not getting that?

Say Leafs can handle a 6.5 cap hit in year 2+ cap hit.

They can offer more tomorrow than today and get that same 6.5 cap hit in year 2+.

Lol, how do people not get that logic.

 

[TheCLAM]

Offering more money RAISES year 2+ cap hit. Why are you not getting that?

No because this season get's pro-rated and comes off the cap in subsquent years. There is some advantage to this argument.. but I don't think this is the prime thinking.

Nylander wants a lot.. the leafs aren't giving him 8 mill. We might see a Dougie for Nylander swap in the short term

 

[DCHabitant]

@mouser ... thanks for those breakdowns, clarifies things for me.

Ditto.

 

[DCHabitant]

No because this season get's pro-rated and comes off the cap in subsquent years. There is some advantage to this argument.. but I don't think this is the prime thinking.

Nylander wants a lot.. the leafs aren't giving him 8 mill. We might see a Dougie for Nylander swap in the short term

I get what you're saying, but totsl compensation over the term of the contract stays the same. You pay him a bit more per season, and that offsets what he would have lost by sitting out. But it doesn't increase his earnings in any real way. And it certainly doesn't reduce the cap hit.

 

[Atas2000]

Due to the nature and speed in which the NHL is evolving this contract is about a lot more than just William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The last several years the league has seen an incredible influx of young talent that have proven to be impact players much sooner than previous decades. This season might see more players in the first 5 years of their pro career in the top 60 of scoring than ever before. Traditionally players coming off an ELC are usually signed to reasonable mid term mid cost deals, usually a contract that doesn't end in them being a UFA. That third or fourth contract is most often seen as the payday, as these players have payed their dues and established themselves after many years of productive play. There are some notable exceptions(McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel) that can be said to have changed the market, but for the most part players of this caliber aren't usually getting 8 years. Some recent examples of players on good money deals during their RFA status and what are likely their prime production years are; Mark Scheifle, Nathan MacKinnon, Alexander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Filip Forsberg, and even John Tavares. Some players sign smaller bridge contracts during these years like Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Nikita Kucherov, and Max Pacioretty. The contracts these players signed coming off their ELCs can be said to be typical of the tradition in the NHL of placing an emphasis on "earning" a big money deal through consistent production during the RFA status.

What Nylander and his camp are recognizing is that having this kind of talented youth producing like a premier player in the NHL has become more valuable than ever before. The NHL has trended towards youth, speed, and skill over veterans who might provide more "presence". With more young players proving their worth in shorter time periods and this contract being situated in the highest of profile markets in Toronto, it will have an important impact on setting the market for the next batch of 60+ point RFAs, of which there are certain to be more and more of around the league. Getting your young talent on good term and good money is of utmost importance to an NHL franchise in a hard cap system, even with that cap increasing. Nylander and his agent are absolutely right to be holding Dubas's feet over the fire and I'm sure the rest of the league is very interested in the outcome. This is a very important contract in modelling what some of the League's other young talent are going to be looking for over the next 5+ years. Will they be willing to take less just because they are "young" and are still Restricted Free Agents? Or will they demand to be valued for what they are as possibly the most vital pieces of an NHL team's future?

Under the false assumption about youth and veterans you might have a point. It's amazing how that propaganda is taking over people's heads and makes them blind to facts.


The league changes(not necessarily for the better). But there are still tons of young players on smaller shorter deals. The narrative about earlier peaks is a lie. The peaks are residing comfortably where they've always been. The change with contracts caused by the cap was inevitable and it wouldn't come overnight, but it was expected. Toronto is a special case of long term suck that resulted in a big influx of good draft picks in a short period of time. Obviously they'll have to deal with it somehow. At some point someone has to be traded. They can't make everybody of those younglings happy with max contracts.

If teams will start giving out huge long term contracts to players just because they are young and young is the new great they will reap what they saw. The same(bad contracts) happens with vets too.

Nothing to see here, move along.

 

[McDynasty]

I don't understand the premise in this thread. How is Nylander taking a paycut? Does anyone here think he's worth 8M a year today? He's worth around 6 - 6.5M X 6 on a second contract. He's shooting for the moon and should sit. If he misses a year of NHL hockey, that's another 6M+ he has to recoup. So unless he thinks that sitting out a year gets him 8M+ next year (it won't), he has no leverage here. Even if he went to arbitration (he doesn't have rights), he wouldn't get 8M.

This has nothing to do with a player taking less, more about greed IMO. Again, this is all based on the premise that he is looking for 8M. Edmonton screwed everyone with that BS Draisaitl contract because now every agent will use it as a comparable. There's no other comparables.

The Chiarelli effect.

 

[mouser]

Say Leafs can handle a 6.5 cap hit in year 2+ cap hit.

They can offer more tomorrow than today and get that same 6.5 cap hit in year 2+.

Lol, how do people not get that logic.

Here’s the very simple math for you. Let’s say the Leafs are fine with a $6.5m cap hit in years 2+

They can sign Nylander to the following contracts today tomorrow, next week, or on December 1st:

2 year: Nylander makes $13m
3 year: Nylander makes $19.5m
4 year: Nylander makes $26
5 year: Nylander makes $32.5

I hope you’re getting the pattern by now.

 

[McDynasty]

The Leafs should offer $7 million and no more. Everyone is assuming he wants $8million but how do we know that?
As a free agent I would gladly give Nylander $7 million for 7 years.
Less not forget that lesser players are also being paid more. A guy like Jordan Eberle for instance.

Eberle makes 6 mil.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Here’s the very simple math for you. Let’s say the Leafs are fine with a $6.5m cap hit in years 2+

They can sign Nylander to the following contracts today tomorrow, next week, or on December 1st:

2 year: Nylander makes $13m
3 year: Nylander makes $19.5m
4 year: Nylander makes $26
5 year: Nylander makes $32.5

I hope you’re getting the pattern by now.

or they can do this...

 

[mouser]

or they can do this...

They're gonna give Nylander a copy of a Cap Friendly tweet and convince him to sign what contract?

 

[Divine]

They're gonna give Nylander a copy of a Cap Friendly tweet and convince him to sign what contract?

A player that signs after the season starts has a lower cap hit from year 2 on.

 

[TheNumber4]

There will be cups.

No there won't.

 

[Sundinisagod]

No there won't.

There will be cups in Toronto before Edmonton, and you know it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We dont know what nylander wants but we do know the leafs want him to take discount for the sake of the team. Quite frankly when a team looks to an outside ufa and gives them a massive contract...you destroy the structure of contracts for your core players. Why should they take a discount when you're going to throw money around to players that werent home grown? And ya I know players like tavares dont come around often, but when you want YOUR guys to tow the company line you should put a priority on making them happy over outside guys.

Agree with this except that Nylander is reported to have asked for 8 mil. He isn't getting that from any team. The bar for him has already been set at 6.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Teams with plenty of cap space would certainly ante up $7 million especially if he plays Center.

I don't think so, but maybe. 6 is his number. But certainly no one is paying 8.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Leaf fans are going to have to realize that keeping all the young talent will be nearly impossible, trade him get a good d man a try to make a run for the cup.

You realize that people have been saying this for years. If there was a deal I think it would have already happened. There is simply no deal in which the Leafs get the value they want.

Any available D is either a 2nd pairing D (Hall for Larsson shows us this is not a good move) or an older D either about to decline or due for a big retirement deal they hardly ever live up to (or both).

Leafs just can't move a 22 year old top line forward who can be a top 6 center for a marginal upgrade on the blueline. They simply do not need the help in the bottom 4 of the lineup. They need to address the top pairing RD and no deal is out there that makes sense.

Leafs are gonna have the chicago problem soon just with no cups to talk about.

That's why they aren't just paying Nylander the 8 million like so many have said they should just do. If they get all the kids for certain values, even if it means bridging them like the Hawks did with Toews and Kane, it gives them a good 5 year window to compete and also allows them to retain their UFA's.

Dubas is in a tough spot because the best time to win is during the next 5 years but he will be eaten alive if he only gives these kids (Marner, Matthews) anything but max term which means more expensive.

Only time it doesn't become hard is if the bridge offers no real discount (like for example he can get Matthews at 10M for 5 years or 11.5 for 8 it just makes sense to pay him).

Either way, I will take having a team who can win every night and put up seasons that have them in the playoffs with chances to win some rounds any day over the past decade + of teams limping to the playoffs or collapsing before they get there.

 

[trick9]

Somewhere he is licking his chops now that Matthews is out, too. Leafs really can't afford to hold out anymore.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Somewhere he is licking his chops now that Matthews is out, too. Leafs really can't afford to hold out anymore.

How so? The Leafs are in the enviable position of having a spare #1C ready to jump into place, and a spare #2C that was sitting on the 3rd line. They are sitting pretty, tied for 1st in the NHL. The Leafs can afford quite a bit. The impact here is the Leafs 3rd line gets weaker, which is a storm the Leafs can weather.

There is literally no need to make panic moves as the Leafs are basically in the most comfortable situation possible for having a #1C go out with injuries.