Confirmed with Link: Nylander signs extension of 8 years - 11.5M AAV

[Evilhomer]

Next year actually feels easier than the year after that. If you run with Woll and Hildeby(or some cheap equivalent) then you've got between 12-16 million to improve roster holes like 2 LW and 1 RD pending how much you give Liljegren and if you are able to trim any of the fat lying around on some contracts we already have. Sure the year after that Tavares is up and more than covers any Marner raise. However Tavares + Marner + Knies + Woll + McCabe currently cost $25,594,667. Assuming any major additions this offseason aren't single year contracts those are your big FAs during the summer of 2025. Do you fill all those holes for cheaper than that?

Lets say Marner takes Willy's deal, and Tavares gives you a discount to fill the 2C hole at 5 million(I think Kopitar/Giroux kinds of deals are reasonable on the open market) that leaves you just over 9 million to fill McCabe's spot and for Woll, Knies extensions. The cap will go up, perhaps 4 million in that offseason as well. While I'd rather not do it I expect a bridge deal for Knies. Lets say 3 x 3.5. Woll however will be 1 year from UFA so any cheaper short term deal makes him a UFA. Not that that's a bad thing perhaps, we're now happy that's the route we took with Samsonov. If he's earned it by then a long term Woll deal might look like 5 x 5. That leaves you with a hair above 4.5 million to fill McCabe's 2nd pair spot which won't be easy. This is also a positive outlook. Perhaps it takes 12 to sign Marner, and Tavares gives no discount. Sure we let him walk but a 5 million center to replace him won't be nearly as good. Bridging Knies is fine but they might want to go long term. Not great when your hand is forced to go bridge.

I'm saying all this to say the easy thing to do is to say next year is a squeeze and we're fine after that. After all next year will be the year where 4 guys are making 10.9+ million, then the least desirable one drops off. But there's some raises coming to 3 very important roster spots in 1 LW, 2 LD, and 1 G. They'll still be fine of course. It'll work. But those 3 cheaper roster spots actually make next year somewhat easier than you'd expect, and those raises will make 2025-26 somewhat tougher than you'd expect.

All good points.

 

[DarkKnight]

I can picture Paul Marner juggling the numbers for Mitch as we speak.

Like Michael Nylander just did? People are pretty selective as it suits them.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The speculation was that the price was a little bit cheaper in the summer. Can you walk us through the process of how you got to this number?:

Treliving: I am not going to go right through it. I wouldn’t say the price was any cheaper in the summer. This idea that all of a sudden, we got to a point where everybody felt ready to get the deal done… It is like any deal. We always want a little less. The player always wants a little more. We find a way to get a deal done.

At the end of the day, we got a really good player here who is going to be here for eight more years. We are happy about it.

Geez Louise, I don't even know what to say. I have to wonder, after getting Rielly signed to a completely reasonable deal if Dubas would have maybe gotten Matty and Willy done for more reasonable deals as well.

 

[DarkKnight]

Pasta only had a 4 year no trade too, then he’s fair game. Every detail of this deal is annoying.

 

[Racer88]

lDoubtful but moan daily just in case.

It absolutely would cure it in my case. I am a life long Leaf fan but I sure am tired of these guys getting the ridiculous contracts without having any success in the playoffs. All we hear are the same tired excuses year after year but management keeps doing the same thing over and over.
While some of you maybe tired of the complaining many many Leaf fans are tired of the same old thing.
I bought into the tank 100% and this mess is what it got us.

 

[Dreakmur]

If the plan is to keep Matthews and Nylander, and drop Tavares and Marner, then this can work.

 

[Maple Leaf]

It absolutely would cure it in my case. I am a life long Leaf fan but I sure am tired of these guys getting the ridiculous contracts without having any success in the playoffs. All we hear are the same tired excuses year after year but management keeps doing the same thing over and over.
While some of you maybe tired of the complaining many many Leaf fans are tired of the same old thing.
I bought into the tank 100% and this mess is what it got us.

You don't need cup wins you need people in the seats you guys are buying the tickets and merch MLSE is happy as a duck

 

[Evilhomer]

Pasta only had a 4 year no trade too, then he’s fair game. Every detail of this deal is annoying.

It's wild to look at this deal and the Matthews deal and then look at the deals for guys like Makar, J. Hughes, Q. Hughes, etc.

 

[conFABulator]

Next year actually feels easier than the year after that. If you run with Woll and Hildeby(or some cheap equivalent) then you've got between 12-16 million to improve roster holes like 2 LW and 1 RD pending how much you give Liljegren and if you are able to trim any of the fat lying around on some contracts we already have. Sure the year after that Tavares is up and more than covers any Marner raise. However Tavares + Marner + Knies + Woll + McCabe currently cost $25,594,667. Assuming any major additions this offseason aren't single year contracts those are your big FAs during the summer of 2025. Do you fill all those holes for cheaper than that?

Lets say Marner takes Willy's deal, and Tavares gives you a discount to fill the 2C hole at 5 million(I think Kopitar/Giroux kinds of deals are reasonable on the open market) that leaves you just over 9 million to fill McCabe's spot and for Woll, Knies extensions. The cap will go up, perhaps 4 million in that offseason as well. While I'd rather not do it I expect a bridge deal for Knies. Lets say 3 x 3.5. Woll however will be 1 year from UFA so any cheaper short term deal makes him a UFA. Not that that's a bad thing perhaps, we're now happy that's the route we took with Samsonov. If he's earned it by then a long term Woll deal might look like 5 x 5. That leaves you with a hair above 4.5 million to fill McCabe's 2nd pair spot which won't be easy. This is also a positive outlook. Perhaps it takes 12 to sign Marner, and Tavares gives no discount. Sure we let him walk but a 5 million center to replace him won't be nearly as good. Bridging Knies is fine but they might want to go long term. Not great when your hand is forced to go bridge.

I'm saying all this to say the easy thing to do is to say next year is a squeeze and we're fine after that. After all next year will be the year where 4 guys are making 10.9+ million, then the least desirable one drops off. But there's some raises coming to 3 very important roster spots in 1 LW, 2 LD, and 1 G. They'll still be fine of course. It'll work. But those 3 cheaper roster spots actually make next year somewhat easier than you'd expect, and those raises will make 2025-26 somewhat tougher than you'd expect.

I agree with you and have posted similar to this myself. There are a few "ifs" here, but every team has them. I am not suggesting that we have more than other teams, I am just listing a few of them here. In order for this team to continue to have regular season success and improved playoff success we need:

Matthews and Nylander to continue to be two of the best players in the world.

Rielly to continue to be a top pairing dman for another 3 to 5 years.

Marner to continue to be a top two way player and to sign an extension similar to the deal Nylander just signed..at worse, Nylander money and Matthews term.

Tavares to resign at $5M or less AAV.

Knies, Woll, and Liljegren develop to top 6, top 4 and starter while signing reasonable extensions and bridges.

Continue to identify, sign and extend NHL depth at low value contracts. This includes guys like Gregor, Benoit, Jones, and Lagesson.

Attract, resign and retain veteran depth on discount deals like we did with Spezza, Thornton, and Giordano. This might include guys like McCabe, Brodie, and/or Tanev.

Develop a pipeline of player that can contribute on ELC or low value deals. We don't need ALL of those guys to hit but we need a few of Robertson, Hildeby, Holmberg, Cowan, Minten, and Niemela to hit.

Avoid signing bad long term deals that we will regret (we currently have none). The above would be a recipe for us having our core, our depth, our youth and $15 to $20M in cap space in two years (go to CapFriendly and see for yourself) for a 2LC, a top dman and or a goalie.

Next year is the tight year, but not too tight with so many guys coming off the cap and LTIR.

 

[francis246]

Over 40 Million tied up on 4 players at some point all these contracts will be a big negative on keeping a compititive team .

Meh I don’t believe this to be true. They make the playoffs every year. They eventually have to lead us to success in the playoffs. But I would rather have these guys and make the playoffs every year than be Ottawa for example and have a good internal salary cap and be brutal every year.

 

[TOGuy14]

The reality is, if these guys were close, or hell, even close to being close, there's slack to be given here.

They haven't.

Instead they show up to negotiations with zero results and walk out with the biggest paydays in the league.

This is how I feel.

We keep taking a bunch of guys who don't get it done and then paying them eye watering salaries, with crazy summer bonus structure, NMC and more.

We now have 4 of the top 10 paid players in the league and they have cumulatively delivered a single playoff series win in 7 seasons ...

 

[DarkKnight]

It's wild to look at this deal and the Matthews deal and then look at the deals for guys like Makar, J. Hughes, Q. Hughes, etc.

Tre said all the right things today, but to me he was flat and lacked genuine enthusiasm.

 

[francis246]

Feels to me like this is the last year to win, next year looks a complete mess and a step back for sure now.

“It wasn’t a negotiation, it was a concession”. Real Kyper/Bourne. Exactly, how anyone can applaud this deal escapes me.

The moment they didn’t trade Marner this off-season they were done. I think most people have accepted that we are stuck with these guys. Whether we like it or not. What’s the alternative? Let Nylander walk and replace him with overpaid 30+ guys in UFA?

 

[1specter]

Sounds like he used some good lube on Treliving

 

[ToneDog]

It’s the principle of the matter, why can’t we sign guys to slightly better deals or just actually what they are probably worth. If you keep overpaying, this is how you create a mess. I’m glad he signed, but $10.5 should have been the number.

Apparently, the number has always been $11+ and there was no negotiating. It was call us when you are ready to pay us Tre.

The moment they didn’t trade Marner this off-season they were done. I think most people have accepted that we are stuck with these guys. Whether we like it or not. What’s the alternative? Let Nylander walk and replace him with overpaid 30+ guys in UFA?

Sounds like you were in on the Leaf$ war room meetings.

 

[Strangle]

Can't wait for Marner to get 13m

I think Marner is going to be playing in Pittsburgh soon

 

[DarkKnight]

The moment they didn’t trade Marner this off-season they were done. I think most people have accepted that we are stuck with these guys. Whether we like it or not. What’s the alternative? Let Nylander walk and replace him with overpaid 30+ guys in UFA?

So wait, you can’t trade Nylander but you can Marner? Same logic applies that you just used right?

Here’s the deal for me, he didn’t have to extract every penny from the team, he didn’t negotiate, he got the number we all thought absurd when floated this summer, and we’re supposed to like it. Terrible for the team, that’s what I care about. Reilly is my fav Leaf now ainec..

 

[Strangle]

Get in Willy, we’re going to the Stanley Cup Finals!

 

[Evilhomer]

Meh I don’t believe this to be true. They make the playoffs every year. They eventually have to lead us to success in the playoffs. But I would rather have these guys and make the playoffs every year than be Ottawa for example and have a good internal salary cap and be brutal every year.

Agreed, but what I think this does mean is that the Leafs will end up with few, if any, long-term mid-level (i.e., $5 - $6 million per year) contracts, because they can't afford to have any "bad" contracts, and those mid-level deals always seems to be the ones prone to becoming anchors. As a result, maybe they can sign a guy like Domi for $5 years at $3 million per season, but it becomes a much riskier exercise with a guy like Bertuzzi, who will presumably require $5 or $6 million over several years.

 

[Gallagbi]

Which doesn't make any sense to me, who calculates a ratio when one of the values isn't even in place/valid yet.

It's not my favourite, but it's always been the way Cap friendly and others calculate it. I expect because it's known and future cap isn't always, and even when known, could potentially change.

 

[verdi]

I should have done more in hockey. Instead , I chose this shitty life.

 

[Strangle]

Treliving better not trade any 1st’s or 2nd’s

We will need those players to come through at all positions to plug holes in the lineup for the next decade.

Need the long view, I think

 

[Gallagbi]

Seems like a defensive quote

 

[Ianturnedbull]

the only thing i can compare this to is the Muskoka 5 (Kubina, Kaberle, McCabe, Sundin, and Tucker) moment in Leaf history. each player did good things for TOR in their time, but the tail end of their time with TOR was quite bad. You might as well add Tie Domi to that list too.

JFJ signed many aging players to contracts thinking that he had a winning core. the fan resentment came when it was clear the team was trending in the wrong direction. the core was signed to No Movement / No Trade contracts. JFJ, Fletcher, and Burke didn't truly recover much from every player.

We still have a top-heavy team, but at least they are not aging (with the exception of Tavares). The future isn't here yet. We don't exactly know what they are going to do after this season with all those new contracts kicking in. Let's hope it works out.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

Unless they win something. There will likely be some corners cut on D and in goal for 1 season. Better extend Jones before he shows any more I can see picks for retention if they want to really compete. This is the window.

Fans are deluded if they think this team can win.