Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[Gabriel426]

Marchand said it. Was never true really. A couple guys maybe, at best.

thats still more than we have at the moment.

A few months back, I was listening to Nucks radio(live in Vancouver) while driving and this comment sticks in my head. The comment and I am paraphrasing, it goes something like successful teams will also make mistakes but they often make little Wins that will end up accumulated to Cup win. Those little wins include just getting a slightly better player in a trade or draft or a better contract compare to the league even if that contract is 150k less in a 50mil deal.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Or, he could take the initiative, give the discount and then it's on Matthews and Marner.

Putting the onus on someone else to make the first big move is some weak ass you-know-what.

That's total crap. Matthews is the face of the team so if it's up to anyone to set an example, it's him. And considering Nylander was far better bang for the buck than M&M on their last deals on which M&M grabbed every penny they could, he'd be a fool to take a discount when there's no way he can count on M&M doing the same.

 

[I am Canadian]

Get them all in a room together and hash it out.

Matthews: 13M x 4 = 52 million
Nylander: 9.5M x 4 = 38 million

These deals are reasonable and give both players an opportunity sign another deal in their prime years. They're not as rich as the players probably could get, but also not a slap in the face by any stretch. Secondly, it gives the Team 2 years with both players AFTER Tavares' contract comes off the book, which 2 years the team will be in a very good position to compete for a cup.

There's no way Matthews should be paid more than Mackinnon while only giving up 4 years. Ditto for Nylander.

 

[Gamble9]

Nylander is only partially correct here.

If he came out and committed to an $8-$9 million deal, easy breezy and declared he was taking less, wants to win, hope everyone feels aligned with this, that would be tremendous leadership. Go Timo Meier route and he wouldn’t even be leaving that much money on the table. That could signal to Matthews, maybe I’ll shave a little off the top and away we go.

The way it’s currently phrased, it loses some of its resonance cause it sounds like a squabble over who is inheriting what from the MLSE fortune. It’s still a little bit Kendal, Roman, Shiv.

Nylander was looking for reasonable money last time and then matthews and marner broke the bank especially marner he was the first shoe to drop last time and noby followed suit if matthews takes less nylander will sign at 9 then you've got something g cooking if not I'm with him screw these loosers I'd want to be traded too mathews at 12.34 show the team you care about winning

 

[Stephen]

Why should Willie do that first and then see AM gets like 13milx5yrs and everyone declare that a huge victory and not an overpayment?

Essentially, it’s none of his effing business.

If there’s an X amount of dollars Nylander can live with to stay a Leaf and to pursue winning, that number should be known. If he wants to shave a little off to help the team. Great. That’s the end of it. Your market rate. Your good guy rate. The end.

But instead we’re on a constant “what about him” spiral of escalating salaries because each of our homegrown stars thinks each of their value is floating relative to the other guy, all pegged to the Tavares dollar.

 

[Gabriel426]

Essentially, it’s none of his effing business.

If there’s an X amount of dollars Nylander can live with to stay a Leaf and to pursue winning, that number should be known. If he wants to shave a little off to help the team. Great. That’s the end of it. Your market rate. Your good guy rate. The end.

But instead we’re on a constant “what about him” spiral of escalating salaries because each of our homegrown stars thinks each of their value is floating relative to the other guy, all pegged to the Tavares dollar.

Pretty hard to be not his business since it is his salary.

Willie might or might not be comparing to what JT is making and providing but at the same time, he has every right to see what the other guys are signing before signing his own contract. Willie might think signing 9.2mil is taking a discount bc he believes he can sign for 10mil while AM might think signing 13mil is already a bargain bc he believes he can sign for 14mil.
There is nothing wrong with players wanting to see what others are signing before signing theirs, as players do that all the time, the only difference is that instead of waiting for player X signs with Team X, out players are just waiting for each other.

 

[I am Canadian]

Essentially, it’s none of his effing business.

If there’s an X amount of dollars Nylander can live with to stay a Leaf and to pursue winning, that number should be known. If he wants to shave a little off to help the team. Great. That’s the end of it. Your market rate. Your good guy rate. The end.

But instead we’re on a constant “what about him” spiral of escalating salaries because each of our homegrown stars thinks each of their value is floating relative to the other guy, all pegged to the Tavares dollar.

I disagree. From a fan's perspective, maybe your argument makes sense. It absolutely applies to Nylander. He's willing to sacrifice money if everyone buys in, why would he do it as the guy who is going to be paid the least if everyone else will not?

 

[Jojalu]

Lotta amateur GM's in here today. All are out to lunch on valuation. LOL

"He's only worth xxx because I have zero facts to argue, but I will use tiny sample sizes of poor play because it furthers my narrative."

And some didn't even do that much thinking. Well done on those ongoing efforts to comically prove yet again why we have the least informed fanbase!!

Not just all those points, but that is not how sports has ever worked.

There will be a tonne of pressure from the NHLPA for Matthews to tske as much as he can, plus the fact is that all the top players leapfrog over each other every year regardless if they have ever won a Championship.

People can choose to disagree with the economics of sports, but it is not changing anytime soom. Hard cap or not.

 

[Stephen]

Pretty hard to be not his business since it is his salary.

Willie might or might not be comparing to what JT is making and providing but at the same time, he has every right to see what the other guys are signing before signing his own contract. Willie might think signing 9.2mil is taking a discount bc he believes he can sign for 10mil while AM might think signing 13mil is already a bargain bc he believes he can sign for 14mil.
There is nothing wrong with players wanting to see what others are signing before signing theirs, as players do that all the time, the only difference is that instead of waiting for player X signs with Team X, out players are just waiting for each other.

To that, I would say “read the room.”

If you I need X dollars and “winning” and “Toronto” are part of the equation, bake in a number and negotiate based on what you can live with.

Otherwise to suggest that X is variable rate and pegged to Matthews, I would ask where is your 60 goal, Calder, Hart, Lindsay and Rockets.

 

[tuckerintensity]

It's kind of comical the Leafs are asking either of these guys to take less than they are worth for the good of the team after signing Kampf, Reaves, and Klingberg to their contracts.

 

[Stephen]

I disagree. From a fan's perspective, maybe your argument makes sense. It absolutely applies to Nylander. He's willing to sacrifice money if everyone buys in, why would he do it as the guy who is going to be paid the least if everyone else will not?

That’s like saying “if everyone else goes into the corner to fight for the puck I will too.”

If you’re going to show leadership and loyalty to the organization, just be the leader and let others follow and sign for an obscene contract and not an obscene plus contract.

 

[tuckerintensity]

Otherwise to suggest that X is variable rate and pegged to Matthews, I would ask where is your 60 goal, Calder, Hart, Lindsay and Rockets.

And his agent will say that's why they are asking for 10 and not 13.

 

[egd27]

There will be a tonne of pressure from the NHLPA for Matthews to tske as much as he can, plus the fact is that all the top players leapfrog over each other every year regardless if they have ever won a Championship.

Why would they do that? The overwhelming majority of the NHLPA are the guys that lose out when the players like Matthews take as much as they can.

That may be the case in other sports, but not in a hard cap world where the pool is finite,

 

[Stephen]

And his agent will say that's why they are asking for 10 and not 13.

Sure. Go get it somewhere else.

Nylander isn’t negotiating fairly here. There’s an entire league of comparables like Rantanen, Meier, Forsberg, Tkachuk that gives you a scatter plot of recently signed elite forwards who are better and worse than Nylander.

Instead of negotiating on those lines, he’s comparing himself to an in-house overpay for Auston Matthews, like there’s a floating overpay rate everyone is entitled to.

 

[egd27]

It's kind of comical the Leafs are asking either of these guys to take less than they are worth for the good of the team after signing Kampf, Reaves, and Klingberg to their contracts.

What are they worth and how do we know they are being asked to take less than that?

 

[Mess]

Recent reports have suggested that while the Leafs have Nylander pegged in the $8M-$8.9M range, Nylander views himself somewhere in the $10M+ range. Almost everyone is in agreement that Nylander is probably pretty close to a $10M player. However, with the Leafs already employing three $11M players, they simply cannot afford to pay another player an 8-figure salary if they wish to remain contenders.

On Tuesday morning, TSN's Chris Johnston hopped on TSN 1050's First Up with Aaron Korolnek and Carlo Colaiacovo to talk about the Leafs and, of course, the Nylander situation. Johnston pitched the idea that maybe the Leafs will have to consider holding onto Nylander and playing out the year, even if he doesn't sign an extension this summer, as much as that might pain some Leaf fans to hear.

"I think it has to be considered a possibility, because you don't want to paint yourself into a corner where you're saying 'we either need to sign him or trade him', because let's face it - whether or not he signs, I think there's going to have to be some concessions on both sides of the table to make that happen... You also can't say 'well, if he doesn't sign, we're going to trade him', because you shouldn't make a bad trade either. At worst, William Nylander is a pretty high-end forward for the Leafs for next year. I do think, while that's certainly not the preferred outcome that I think either side should want, it does loom as a possibility if they're not able to get together on a contract.

 

[Gabriel426]

To that, I would say “read the room.”

If you I need X dollars and “winning” and “Toronto” are part of the equation, bake in a number and negotiate based on what you can live with.

Otherwise to suggest that X is variable rate and pegged to Matthews, I would ask where is your 60 goal, Calder, Hart, Lindsay and Rockets.

But he is not saying if AM gets this, I get that. Rather he is looking if AM will take less before deciding on his contract.

Players do that all the time. Just so happened both players play on the Leafs. Would it be any different if AM plays on the Kings and Willie is waiting out to see what AM is signing and set the market so to speak and then decide what is his own market value?

 

[Stephen]

Or, he could take the initiative, give the discount and then it's on Matthews and Marner.

Putting the onus on someone else to make the first big move is some weak ass you-know-what.

Yeah exactly. The on ice equivalent would be “I’m willing to go in the corners to fight for pucks, sacrifice the body and do what’s necessary for the team to win… but only if that guy is.”

 

[Gabriel426]

Recent reports have suggested that while the Leafs have Nylander pegged in the $8M-$8.9M range, Nylander views himself somewhere in the $10M+ range. Almost everyone is in agreement that Nylander is probably pretty close to a $10M player. However, with the Leafs already employing three $11M players, they simply cannot afford to pay another player an 8-figure salary if they wish to remain contenders.

On Tuesday morning, TSN's Chris Johnston hopped on TSN 1050's First Up with Aaron Korolnek and Carlo Colaiacovo to talk about the Leafs and, of course, the Nylander situation. Johnston pitched the idea that maybe the Leafs will have to consider holding onto Nylander and playing out the year, even if he doesn't sign an extension this summer, as much as that might pain some Leaf fans to hear.

"I think it has to be considered a possibility, because you don't want to paint yourself into a corner where you're saying 'we either need to sign him or trade him', because let's face it - whether or not he signs, I think there's going to have to be some concessions on both sides of the table to make that happen... You also can't say 'well, if he doesn't sign, we're going to trade him', because you shouldn't make a bad trade either. At worst, William Nylander is a pretty high-end forward for the Leafs for next year. I do think, while that's certainly not the preferred outcome that I think either side should want, it does loom as a possibility if they're not able to get together on a contract.

Who is in agreement that WIllie is a 10mil player? Like seriously who are you referring to?

 

[AvroArrow]

Over the last 3 years Matthews averages 1.29 P/GP, over 82 = 105.7
Over the last 3 years Nylander averages 0.97 P/GP, over 82 = 79.5
Over the last 3 years Marner averages 1.27 P/GP, over 82 = 104

Comparatively I'm using these 3 players, they are similar level of players who all recently signed big deals

Over the last 3 years McDavid averages 1.74 P/GP, over 82 = 142.6
Over the last 3 years Pastrnak averages 1.32 P/GP, over 82 = 108
Over the last 3 years Mackinnon averages 1.43 P/GP, over 82 = 117



Pastrnak is making $104166 per point
McDavid is making $88028 per point
Mackinnon is making $107692 per point

Average they are making $99962 per point



Using that average of $ per point, fair value for our 3 core guys based on production, using their peers/competition as the reference point, they should be earning the amount listed below, to provide the same value that their peers do. Now obviously McDavid is an X factor and skews the stats, so I'll do one comparison without McDavid after this one.


Matthews $10.5M
Marner $10.39M
Nylander $7.95M


Pastrnak is making $104166 per point
Mackinnon is making $107692 per point
Timo Meier averages 0.91 P/GP over the last 3 years, over 82 GP = 74.6. Meier is making $117962 per point

Using these 3 players they average $109940 dollars earned per point. That would equate to our guys making,

Matthews $11.5M
Marner $11.4M
Nylander $8.7M

If our core guys want to take team friendly deals while still earning a fair amount, those bolded numbers are the deals they should be signing. Those are perfectly fair and on par with what their peers/competition are making for the exact same amount of production. In a cap world, nobody cares about just your skill, it's production. It's points scored per dollars spent.

I believe in a cap world we should be looking at player valuations in this way. Obviously there are other x factors and intangibles as well, like physicality/hitting/leadership/defensive skill etc, which become very difficult to measure on just a stat sheet. But looking at just points alone, those are very fair numbers.

EDIT: adding to my long ass essay, I'm gonna work on an excel sheet at some point with the entire league at some point. It will give the truest evaluation of a players value, the best bang for your buck. It evens the playing field, you can properly compare something like a 3rd liner to a 2nd liner, you can see how rare a certain level of scorer is, like an 80 point guy, and how many middle of the pack 30-40 point guys there as well.

 

[Marshy]

So if a team has nobody making superstar money, they're allowed to suppress salaries by saying....hey look our top guy only makes 8.5M...how can we pay you more? And the player's agent shouldn't be allowed to use a comparable on another team who makes 10M right? Seems like what I'm hearing from some on here. Or should the player/agent be allowed to pick and choose whether it's internal comparable or external as they see fit? Seems a bit like wanting your cake and eating it too.

 

[Farsailor]

One shouldnt be surprised reading some of the posts in here. Nylander always gets the worst treatment from both fans, journalists and coaches out of the core 4. No matter how he plays. Earns way less and yet is the only one of them to show up every playoff. If Leafs are suggesting he now, after scoring 40 (which Marner or Tavares will never do btw) should sign on 8, and is sticking with that, I wouldnt blame Nylander if he walked away from this club.. If his demand is 10 clearly he should be offered 9, get it done.

 

[Stephen]

But he is not saying if AM gets this, I get that. Rather he is looking if AM will take less before deciding on his contract.

Players do that all the time. Just so happened both players play on the Leafs. Would it be any different if AM plays on the Kings and Willie is waiting out to see what AM is signing and set the market so to speak and then decide what is his own market value?

THE PROBLEM is comparing himself to Auston Matthews. Matthews is Batman for better or for worse. Nylander is Robin’s sidekick.

 

[hullsy47]

V

Honest question, who are the teams lining up to pay him $10+ million?

I think you let him and his agent go talk to other teams.

Give them a deadline. Either they come to their senses and take a fair contract or they actually find teams that’ll give him $10 mill and the Leafs can work out a trade.

97.1 in Detroit is all over Yzerman to not let Nylander get away
Stevie y wants to use Larkin as a artifical team cap

 

[ULF_55]

To that, I would say “read the room.”

If you I need X dollars and “winning” and “Toronto” are part of the equation, bake in a number and negotiate based on what you can live with.

Otherwise to suggest that X is variable rate and pegged to Matthews, I would ask where is your 60 goal, Calder, Hart, Lindsay and Rockets.

Is Nylander saying he wants the same as Matthews?

But I agree, Matthews is unlikely someone who cares two hoots about his teammates, so Nylander should not consider whether Matthews goes for all he can or not.

Nylander has 10 team protection, so probably is aware he may be moved. It would be in his own best interest to be as greedy as he can. He's not going to get any more respect from Keefe regardless of what he does, and while some teammates might give him some love, you know it won't be coming from the Double Digits.