Nylander contract talk VI

[ABCUser]

There's enough info out there that the initial ask was in the ballpark of 8 mil.

Unfortunately injuries happen all the time in hockey and players really need to be careful about their contracts as it could always be their last one. I agree that 8 x 8 (64) was probably what he was asking. I see this somewhere between 7 and 8 a year. Probably 7.5 x 8 (60) is what he'd settle for, not sure the Leafs are going to meet that though.

 

[Marshy]

Problem is that I think they need to hold at 23MM to sign Gards and the rest of the crew

23 isn't happening. If they hold to that number it's bye-bye Nylander, hello ELC RHDman.

 

[moon111]

Would Nylander be sorely missed on the PP?

According to my numbers, with the Leafs, Nylander has played 415.95 PP minutes and produced 41 points. That equals to 10.1 minutes per PP point.
Compare that to 'hot-era' Ennis, from 2009 to 2015, he was on the ice for 919.21 minutes producing 68 PP points. That equals 13.5 minutes per PP point.
In that time frame for Ennis, he was tied for 1st in assists (47) and 2nd in PP points (68) for Buffallo. Does Ennis suffer from worst teammates during that
time-frame or does that mean he was given ice he wouldn't of necessarily received on a better team like Minnesota? In his best year on the PP where
he lead Buffalo in PP points, the 2nd best player on his team was Mat Moulson. Moulson scored at a rate of over 19 minutes per PP pt, which is 2 minutes
worst the Komarov did last season. The best combo of `14-15 Sabres you could give Ennis would be: Moulson, Chris Stewart, Ristolainen and Zadorov
... they combined for 35 points on the PP. Morgan Rielly had 25 himself last season.

On the power-play, I think Ennis has an even a better chance to fill Nylander's shoes. With money not an option, you hands down take Nylander over
Ennis. But for the performance differences, do you really get $5 million+ more out of Nylander? It makes me wonder what kind of trade offers you
could get for the guy. Nylander and McElhinney for Dahlin... would you do it?

 

[Trapper]

That's most definitely a discount. I'm hoping best case scenario he takes a Tavares deal but I'm also assuming he breaks out this year.

Marner is the trickiest one imo, we'll have to see where he stands after this year. I think if they can get Nylander to a good team friendly deal, it should influence the rest of them.

I agree Marner will be the most difficult because we don’t know where he fill finish this year or what peer range he will fall in.

As we’ve said in these threads, Nylander should be paid in the starting 8% range.

If you look at Eichel, he got paid in the 13.4% range of his teams cap. Which was 75 million at the time. Keeping in line with that, if the cap is at 80-81 million next year, that’s a starting base of 10.72 million.

Now where is Marner heading? Obviously somewhere between 8% and 13.4% depending on his final ELC year.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Problem is that I think they need to hold at 23MM to sign Gards and the rest of the crew

I know you really like Gards and want him to stay but with all of the up and comers and the financial situation I think it's unlikely.

 

[Notsince67]

23 isn't happening. If they hold to that number it's bye-bye Nylander, hello ELC RHDman.

You are right if they are looking for 8 years for everyone. That is why I think there will be less than 8 for 1 or 2 of them

 

[Liminality]

Pretty sure 11 is the upper limit.

Don't see a world where RFA Matthews gets more than UFA Tavares got.

Well we're not sure where the cap's going to be next year when he needs to sign.
Hypothetically if the Leafs give him the same cap hit this year as Eichel's 13.33% of 79.5m, that's still 10.59m. If the cap rises to 82.5m next season, 13.33% of that is 11m.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Do you think he actually expects an 8 mil contract? Seriously?

no but I would think asking for that much would get him somewhere in the 7s

 

[Marshy]

You are right if they are looking for 8 years for everyone. That is why I think there will be less than 8 for 1 or 2 of them

Bridge for Nylander does make alot of sense. It gets them over the hump for next year until the Marleau deal is up. We're actually in good shape in a few years with Horton's deal expiring next offsesason also.

 

[Notsince67]

I know you really like Gards and want him to stay but with all of the up and comers and the financial situation I think it's unlikely.

They still will need a veteran presence that can help anchor the defensive leadership. After Hainsey is gone, Rielly and Gards are the only guys with more than 3 years of NHL experience. They will not choose to keep Zaitsev at his cap hit over Gardiner who might only cost $1.5MM more

 

[Mess]

could it be he is finding out the leafs plans? we here all this talk about a stacked pp unit, meaning he will be stuck with a unit that will get little time and have a lot less talent. People go on and on about Marner setting a pp record last season, are you all unaware who marner took the record from by 1 pp point?. Him being on a unit that wont play as many mins with less talent isn't him being put in a position to succeed and therefore the best possible scenario for the team to succeed.

I think as excited we all are for that stacked unit, we may need to start worrying that players are forcing babcocks hand here babcock has never stacked a unit since being here. Obviously Matthews has said something and JT it sounds like may have hand picked his linemate (marner, I doubt he picked hyman) it wouldn't surprise me if he picked the pp unit.

edit: our top 3 C's on one unit too

PP#1 .. Tavares -- Matthews -- Marner -- Kadri -- Rielly

Left out in the cold = Nylander

If you're negotiating to get Nylander signed, then perhaps selling him that he is not a part of your key offensive weapons on PP#1 is not going to make him feel any better about what the Leafs think of him.

Sends the message to Nylander by management that you're not in the same class as those above so your salary demands are toooooooo high.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

They still will need a veteran presence that can help anchor the defensive leadership. After Hainsey is gone, Rielly and Gards are the only guys with more than 3 years of NHL experience. They will not choose to keep Zaitsev at his cap hit over Gardiner who might only cost $1.5MM more

True but Jake's UFA status next year might cause problems in that they could just let him walk. They have to find a willing trade partner for Zaits.

 

[Walshy7]

PP#1 .. Tavares -- Matthews -- Marner -- Kadri -- Rielly

Left out in the cold = Nylander

If you're negotiating to get Nylander signed, then perhaps selling him that he is not a part of your key offensive weapons on PP#1 is not going to make him feel any better about what the Leafs think of him.

Sends the message to Nylander by management that you're not in the same class as those above so your salary demands are toooooooo high.

Also if you are worried about being traded, being the odd man out of the Harlem globetrotter level pp wouldn’t fill you with confidence you will be sticking around long term

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Also if you are worried about being traded, being the odd man out of the Harlem globetrotter level pp wouldn’t fill you with confidence you will be sticking around long term

And for sure you don't wanna be traded to the Washington Generals...

 

[Notsince67]

Bridge for Nylander does make alot of sense. It gets them over the hump for next year until the Marleau deal is up. We're actually in good shape in a few years with Horton's deal expiring next offsesason also.

The most sense might be a bridge for Marner. His numbers are the most unknown. A really good year might put him beyond long term affordability in the short run. He would probably be the happiest to wait out a big payday because he knows he aint going anywhere

 

[Notsince67]

True but Jake's UFA status next year might cause problems in that they could just let him walk. They have to find a willing trade partner for Zaits.

You can always package Zaits with a depth player to lessen the cap hit.

 

[Marshy]

The most sense might be a bridge for Marner. His numbers are the most unknown. A really good year might put him beyond long term affordability in the short run. He would probably be the happiest to wait out a big payday because he knows he aint going anywhere

That's some good outside the box thinking there. Let's hope Dubas is getting creative to ensure the 3 kids are here for as long as possible. Even if he has to piecemeal it together.

 

[Trapper]

PP#1 .. Tavares -- Matthews -- Marner -- Kadri -- Rielly

Left out in the cold = Nylander

If you're negotiating to get Nylander signed, then perhaps selling him that he is not a part of your key offensive weapons on PP#1 is not going to make him feel any better about what the Leafs think of him.

Sends the message to Nylander by management that you're not in the same class as those above so your salary demands are toooooooo high.

The problem for the Leafs is that everyone is due at the same time. You basically had to sign Tavares/Nylander this year and Matthews/Marner right after. Unlike Tampa/Winnipeg.

Stamkos was signed a couple of caps back as well as Hedman.
Same with Winnipeg. Sheif was locked up and then Ehlers. Imagine if Winnipeg had to pay Sheif today along with Ehlers/Laine.

If the plan is every player taking heftier cuts to stay, then you probably can’t keep everyone. Reasonable yes, but what is reasonable?

 

[Notsince67]

That's some good outside the box thinking there. Let's hope Dubas is getting creative to ensure the 3 kids are here for as long as possible. Even if he has to piecemeal it together.

It can all work unless they crap the bed and overpay people.

 

[Walshy7]

Would Nylander be sorely missed on the PP?

According to my numbers, with the Leafs, Nylander has played 415.95 PP minutes and produced 41 points. That equals to 10.1 minutes per PP point.
Compare that to 'hot-era' Ennis, from 2009 to 2015, he was on the ice for 919.21 minutes producing 68 PP points. That equals 13.5 minutes per PP point.
In that time frame for Ennis, he was tied for 1st in assists (47) and 2nd in PP points (68) for Buffallo. Does Ennis suffer from worst teammates during that
time-frame or does that mean he was given ice he wouldn't of necessarily received on a better team like Minnesota? In his best year on the PP where
he lead Buffalo in PP points, the 2nd best player on his team was Mat Moulson. Moulson scored at a rate of over 19 minutes per PP pt, which is 2 minutes
worst the Komarov did last season. The best combo of `14-15 Sabres you could give Ennis would be: Moulson, Chris Stewart, Ristolainen and Zadorov
... they combined for 35 points on the PP. Morgan Rielly had 25 himself last season.

On the power-play, I think Ennis has an even a better chance to fill Nylander's shoes. With money not an option, you hands down take Nylander over
Ennis. But for the performance differences, do you really get $5 million+ more out of Nylander? It makes me wonder what kind of trade offers you
could get for the guy. Nylander and McElhinney for Dahlin... would you do it?

You got a time machine? Because it’s not 2009-2015 is it? f*** it while we at it let’s get mid 80’s Gretzky.

And of course everyone does you terrible trade everyone except the sabres

 

[Notsince67]

The problem for the Leafs is that everyone is due at the same time. You basically had to sign Tavares/Nylander this year and Matthews/Marner right after. Unlike Tampa/Winnipeg.

Stamkos was signed a couple of caps back as well as Hedman.
Same with Winnipeg. Sheif was locked up and then Ehlers. Imagine if Winnipeg had to pay Sheif today along with Ehlers/Laine.

If the plan is every player taking heftier cuts to stay, then you probably can’t keep everyone. Reasonable yes, but what is reasonable?

You probably want to lock your biggest whiner to a long term deal for long term stability. I see them staggering the contracts a bit.
JT's pay will likely drop after 7 so he aint a problem. Matthews will need a new contract 9 years from now. Willy in 8. You probably don't want to have to deal with this fiasco again so you bridge Marner for 2 (still RFA controlled) followed by a 8 year deal that pushes his new contract out to 11 years from now.

 

[Sypher04]

No bridges

 

[Aintboutdatlyfe]

We will have no issue affording all our stars long term nor will we have an issue supporting them.

Dubas is doing his due process with Nylander to assure this. The longer this process lasts, the better the cap hit we will get.

 

[Aintboutdatlyfe]

Bridges are mathematically provable to be bad.

Unless you expect the player to not get any better/get worse, you are always costing yourself money by signing a player to a bridge deal.

 

[willmma]

personally id take 48 million guaranteed. 6 x 8 years. its guaranteed security almost 50 million dollars. And if I did manage to stay healthy i could still sign another deal at age 30. If I wasnt still healthy at 30 thank God i took that 50 million guaranteed. When did I get hurt...

I know eh.
If we go with Ehler's prorated money he's making $6.3M x 7 = $44M
And if we want to buy another UFA year at $8M, then he makes it $52M

This is not under paying, not a home discount, not pennies on the dollar. It's fair value.

GUARANTEED $52 Million dollars for a 22 year old guy. I think that's pretty decent.
How long is he going to hold out from signing to earn a little more?