Nylander contract talk VI

[ITM]

You may be right but I did a quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation - I am sure any number of you will tell me why I am wrong, but next year the Leafs will have $30M in cap space for Matthews, Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, Nylander, Josh Leivo, Ron Hainsey, a back-up goalie and Jake Gardiner. Suppose they replace Johnsson, Josh Leivo, Ron Hainsey, a back-up goalie and Jake Gardiner with spare pieces for about $1M each or a total of $5M. Then you figure Matthews and Marner get $20M between them, which is probably on the low side. That means only $5M for Kapanen and Nylander. If that analysis is right, the Leafs may not have room for a long-term deal for Nylander.

I get your point. That it's possible all will not end well in what some might perceive as Leafs fans portraying the situation around Nylander and the club's ability to ice a contending team as being naive, at best and at worst, delusional.

My point in the reply you quoted sees the plausible outcome of Nylander (and his agent) vs Dubas (and Pridham and Gilman) given the other actual outcomes of Nylander's agent and his clients and the positive resolved results as something to reasonably expect. It doesn't mean to imply that the unexpected isn't possible, just that there's reason to expect what's repeatedly happened before in similar situations.

Now that doesn't remove other possible problems moving forward. But we need to deal in what can be reasonably inferred from the actors and the situations of similar instances rather than speculate in spite of available patterns. Said differently, we need to be able to synthesize accurately in order to analyze accurately.

For example, you suppose Jake Gardiner et al is going to be replaced by spare pieces at an average hit of $1M. But that presupposes other assets won't be moved in order to accommodate what management sees as necessary vs incidental pieces to achieve the desired outcome.

I don't believe for a moment that Zach Hyman and Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev are perceived as life-long Leafs no matter (as in the case of Hyman) how much pumping the coaching staff attempts to inflate their perceived value. That's around $10M in relatively elastic assets that could be replaced internally. There's Marleau's last year and there's Horton's the following season that become much more pliable to the desired end. Certainly Pridham and Gilman and Dubas have already run scenarios in the multiplicative.

And I think it's reasonable to believe, given their particular specializations measured against their peers in the league, that if they can't complete the puzzle, no other management team could. This to say, it's reasonable to believe that they will not be surprised by the unexpected having surely accounted - literally - for every outcome.

And if that includes maximizing Nylander into something else as a result of an unwanted outcome accounted for, it may be an undesirable outcome but it won't have been an unknown outcome.

If these last years of transformation have informed me of anything, unlike previous management groups, it's that any anxiety I might have about personnel movement is something to be optimistic about. Over and over and over again, as cliche as it may sound, the group assembled by Shanahan has rewarded my faith, not betrayed it.

I see no reason to believe differently in this instance either.

 

[Confucius]

Problem is that I think they need to hold at 23MM to sign Gards and the rest of the crew

Madrid? Dam auto correct.. kadri will be due in what 3 or 4 years. We already have him on a great deal. If we win in the meantime I feel we owe him big time.

 

[bionic]

After rereading this do you even know what you are talking about? Do some friggin research and back up your opinion.

O.k. first of all relax pumpkin. Second of all no research is needed to debunk your claims because they are outdated and already been proven to be false. Sports players have great accountants that find loopholes so that the difference in taxes being paid by Florida players and Toronto players is minimal.
Being paid in American and spending in Canadian IS and advantage
As for Nylander not getting any endorsement deals, I already proved you wrong and it also looks like you didn't do YOUR research to know that he already signed a deal with Reebok Canada.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I

I ignore people who are insulting or threaten to ignore other people.

Luckily I'm neither!

 

[member 300185]

Madrid? Dam auto correct.. kadri will be due in what 3 or 4 years. We already have him on a great deal. If we win in the meantime I feel we owe him big time.

The only thing we "owe" him is a pay check, which he receives. "Big time", what are you gonna do, give him your first born or maybe buy him a home?

 

[diceman934]

I just read this response.
I agree that the CBA is better towards young players with the UFA at 27 or some other maths formulas.....service time, games played, number of contracts, whatever!
The cap being set in stone is stupid. I hate the fake parity and disruptive nature of the hard cap. It's ridiculous that Chicago had to unload all of those great young players after winning their cups solely because they were not going to be able to afford them.

However, your point on players asking for trades is where I disagree. While it's true that most (nearly all) of the players who demand a trade are eventually granted their wish, it's not mandated by the CBA. It's completely out of the hands of the player where their future lies at that point.

I too believe Nylander's reputation will be fine. This ploy to hold out in order to get a better deal (if that's actually the case - which I don't know) will get squashed and he'll be back in Blue and White and we'll all be admiring his dangling ability.

There is no play in the CBA to mandate trades nor should there be. The team who drafts a player puts in a lot of time and money before a player finishes their ELC and to get nothing for that time seems unfair.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Were we not talking chump change; we are talking REAL dollars. Tell me what he endorsed that was worth more than free pizzas for a year!

Reebok.

Dubas told Reebok to give him good money to help lower his AAV and Dubas said he'd arrange the endorsement money to make up for the team friendly deal.

 

[frizzer1]

So if Nylander is still unsigned when the season starts. then what?
Is his negotiating team thinking that if the leafs and Matthews start slowly it will put pressure on Dubas?

I doubt that it would because even if they do stumble early they still will be odds on to make the playoffs,right?
And Nylander has to sign before Dec 1 or he can't play in the NHL this season, and he gains nothing by that, so he has to sign by then.
Or am I missing something?

 

[Nithoniniel]

So if Nylander is still unsigned when the season starts. then what?
Is his negotiating team thinking that if the leafs and Matthews start slowly it will put pressure on Dubas?

I doubt that it would because even if they do stumble early they still will be odds on to make the playoffs,right?
And Nylander has to sign before Dec 1 or he can't play in the NHL this season, and he gains nothing by that, so he has to sign by then.
Or am I missing something?

Gross' clients always seem negotiate late, but never actually into the season. I don't think that'll happen with Willy either. If it does, it's most likely to his loss. We're not in a hurry and he's got no leverage.

 

[Confucius]

The only thing we "owe" him is a pay check, which he receives. "Big time", what are you gonna do, give him your first born or maybe buy him a home?

Probably give him what he asks for. Lol

 

[Not My Tempo]

Gross' clients always seem negotiate late, but never actually into the season. I don't think that'll happen with Willy either. If it does, it's most likely to his loss. We're not in a hurry and he's got no leverage.

Which makes me ask why agents even go this route, when was the last time holding out actually helped a RFA?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

So if Nylander is still unsigned when the season starts. then what?
Is his negotiating team thinking that if the leafs and Matthews start slowly it will put pressure on Dubas?

I doubt that it would because even if they do stumble early they still will be odds on to make the playoffs,right?
And Nylander has to sign before Dec 1 or he can't play in the NHL this season, and he gains nothing by that, so he has to sign by then.
Or am I missing something?

that's it.
RFAs have zero power.

 

[Faltorvo]

That is some pure, unsubstantiated bull****.

I have a feeling you just gained a ton of Ignores.

naw your dead wrong he is right , sorry kid

 

[egd27]

We should play hard ball and screw him to just like Nylander, that's how this works

Sitting out and trying to get a better deal isn't a character issue, it's business and he's trying to use the leverage he's got to get a better deal just like we are

Do you think the Leafs are trying to "screw" Nylander?

 

[13pacheco31]

Do you think the Leafs are trying to "screw" Nylander?

I would hardly call giving a guy $6 million to play a game "screwing". Dubas is however looking out for Toronto's best interest and not nylander's, obviously

 

[Kiwi]

Do you think the Leafs are trying to "screw" Nylander?

We have the leverage in this contract situation, if we're not trying to screw him down and lower that AAV as low as possible we're doing it wrong

I'd expect any team in this situation to do exactly the same thing, that some teams don't is beyond my comprehension

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Nothing new at camp. Absolutely zero coming from the kids. It is dead quiet. My guess this is going to go on for quite some time. Seems like both sides are in wait and see mode. Funny to watch the media guys running around now asking the moms and dads and granddads if they heard anything. I think they go on here because one guy who you guys talk about asked me if i was Gramps. I think Stuey set me up though i saw his little grin. Go Leafs Go. At ACC but they changed all name/signs to Scotia. Weird. Air Canada must be short on cash.

 

[Confucius]

So if Nylander is still unsigned when the season starts. then what?
..am I missing something?

Assuming he is turning down 6 million a year. Willie starts losing about 75,000 a game...
FML
Lol

 

[Burnie97]

Assuming he is turning down 6 million a year. Willie starts losing about 75,000 a game...
FML
Lol

Lol... no shit eh.... Yeah a couple games missed would pretty much pay off most of my debt

 

[Notsince67]

Assuming he is turning down 6 million a year. Willie starts losing about 75,000 a game...
FML
Lol

Well 6MM is peanuts in his mind so 75K is change he loses in the couch

 

[Canada4Gold]

Assuming he is turning down 6 million a year. Willie starts losing about 75,000 a game...
FML
Lol

That's where it really starts becoming a bad idea for Nylander. Realistically the best he could hope for is for Dubas to cave by about 100k to what the offer is now. Over 6say a 6 year contract that's 600k. He misses 8 games and that's 600k flushed down the toilet. Given it's him that has everything to lose and the Leafs can manage without him for a bit waiting it out is far more likely to have him lose money than make it.

For that reason I can't imagine he waits further than the start of the season. He'll lose money by doing so.