Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[Drytoast]

f*** it. Give him $10+m and the fans can enjoy regular season hockey and MLSEL can sell more jerseys.

Probably whats gonna happen.

He has great hair.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think there is a secret formula to winning the cup, but at least in recent years, all of Nylander/Marner/Matthews are PPG and playing well, the myth that they are playoff no shows comes from their younger years playing teams that were super defensive or had great goaltending (Bruins, Columbus, Montreal).

I wouldn't lump these 3 together. The numbers have been posted many times and unlike the other two, Nylander's production has not dropped off in the playoffs. As far as "playing well", again, lumping 3 players together is a really bad idea and I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Menzinger]

Yes I can and I have. We've signed Matthews so we've committed. I don't think nor like the idea of handing out 10m+ contracts to Marner and Nylander to get them to stay. And JT may come in cheaper but even he's lighting it up right now so what the hell is he gonna want?

Someone has to go since they all have expectations of making 10m+. And the odd man out is Willy because he sucks at defense and doesn't kill penalty's like Marner does. If he wants to stay, he's gotta take a discount. Otherwise...trade him at the deadline and get maximum return to fill holes that we need to fill in the line up.

Signing him just runs it back and we've seen where that goes. Which is our team eliminated while a much more balanced team wins the cup.

No thanks.

Tavares is an aging asset - the team has already experimented with shifting him to the wing (which is telling). He's the odd man out of the main 4 one way or the other after next season, and so frees up his most of his 11 mil for team balance. JT may come back, but if he does it's going to be for a steep discount m

We've also seen with the Domi/Bertuzzi signings so far (and for the record I still like both guys) that it's a lot harder to replace Nylander than many assume.

Matthews-Marner-Nylander guarantees the team stays competitive well beyond 2024 every season.

 

[rumman]

Tavares is an aging asset - the team has already experimented with shifting him to the wing (which is telling). He's the odd man out of the main 4 one way or the other after next season, and so frees up his most of his 11 mil for team balance. JT may come back, but if he does it's going to be for a steep discount m

We've also seen with the Domi/Bertuzzi signings so far (and for the record I still like both guys) that it's a lot harder to replace Nylander than many assume.

Matthews-Marner-Nylander guarantees the team stays competitive well beyond 2024 every season.

is winning one playoff round in the last 6 years “staying competitive?” i’s a interesting question……..

 

[Drytoast]

I wouldn't lump these 3 together. The numbers have been posted many times and unlike the other two, Nylander's production has not dropped off in the playoffs. As far as "playing well", again, lumping 3 players together is a really bad idea and I'll just leave it at that.

Nylander sucks at defense. Between the 3. Marner and Matthews have far more utility.

Nylander is great at offense. Zone entries...play making.

 

[arso40]

Tavares is an aging asset - the team has already experimented with shifting him to the wing (which is telling). He's the odd man out of the main 4 one way or the other after next season, and so frees up his most of his 11 mil for team balance. JT may come back, but if he does it's going to be for a steep discount m

We've also seen with the Domi/Bertuzzi signings so far (and for the record I still like both guys) that it's a lot harder to replace Nylander than many assume.

Matthews-Marner-Nylander guarantees the team stays competitive well beyond 2024 every season.

I would argue that it won’t be possible to replace his production

 

[Jojalu]

is winning one playoff round in the last 6 years “staying competitive?” i’s a interesting question……..

I was listening to Jim Nill this morning talking about how in the past 5 seasons, 5 teams have dropped out, and 5 teams have jumped into the playoffs.

The Leafs making the playoffs in 7 consecutive years is a more difficult task than some admit in a salary cap era in a league that wants parity.

Yes, they have wasted some opportunities once they got there but at least our biggeat concern is how they will blow it in thecplayoffs instead of will they make it

 

[Menzinger]

is winning one playoff round in the last 6 years “staying competitive?” i’s a interesting question……..

We spent 2003-2016 not even being able to make the playoffs. I've got little interest returning to that anytime soon, especially by choice

 

[TorMapleJays]

I was listening to Jim Nill this morning talking about how in the past 5 seasons, 5 teams have dropped out, and 5 teams have jumped into the playoffs.

The Leafs making the playoffs in 7 consecutive years is a more difficult task than some admit in a salary cap era in a league that wants parity.

Yes, they have wasted some opportunities once they got there but at least our biggeat concern is how they will blow it in thecplayoffs instead of will they make it

Just stop.

Championship or bust.

 

[Stephen]

I wouldn't lump these 3 together. The numbers have been posted many times and unlike the other two, Nylander's production has not dropped off in the playoffs. As far as "playing well", again, lumping 3 players together is a really bad idea and I'll just leave it at that.

Nylander’s playoff prowess is a bit overstated though. While it’s true that the delta between Nylander’s regular season and playoff stats is less dramatic than Matthews and Marner, the 3 of them have 47, 44 and 40 playoff career points respectively. I’ll let you figure out whose stats line is whose.

Nylander’s turnover to Barkov was also the catalyst for the Game 2 meltdown which ended up costing the Leafs that series. Yes he had brilliant showings later in the series and scored that game tying goal in Game 5…

So in the framing of paying these 3 guys each $10 million plus, I would absolutely evaluate them together.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I hate to get into the Willy vs. Marner thing. But there's one element that isn't talked about that I think is really pro-Willy. And I'm not saying it is the key element in comparison to other things like style of play etc etc.... But unfortunately in this market, there is a ton of pressure. On the surface, we all love Marner. Toronto boy who cares about the city and all that stuff. Willy is just a guy with pretty hair who doesn't care. Which "attitude" or "mindset" would you want in the playoffs?

On first glance, its easy to say Marner. But the second things go wrong and the media calls out Marner, he throws a hissy fit. Then he grips his stick tighter and makes poor decisions/plays. Some people can handle that pressure. A lot can't.

Then there's Willy. He just seems like he doesn't care. And for him specifically, that's great. Honestly. Cause when the media/fans/pressure come after him. He essentially portrays "I don't care" and lets it drip off and just does his thing. Honestly think that is a huge reason why he has just as much success if not more than Marner in the playoffs. Nothing to do with skill/heart/energy. It's a mental mindset.

I'm not saying you need a team full of players like that. But you need players who can handle the pressure, no matter how they handle it. Honestly when the game is on the line in the playoffs, the time we are all arguing about that needs to be conquered by this team, I'd pick Nylander over Marner in a do or die situation.

I realize Nylander has had his warts over the years and still has some warts, but he's shown a ton of growth over the past few years. Some have recognized it. Others made their bed when he held out or when Don said Ritchie was better, and there's no going back.

I just think when you analyze it all, including the difference in money they'd be making, the gap that separates the two isn't too far off and may even be non-existent.

 

[rumman]

We spent 2003-2016 not even being able to make the playoffs. I've got little interest returning to that anytime soon, especially by choice

So your happy with mediocre, okay that makes sense……..

 

[Jojalu]

Just stop.

Championship or bust.

Haha.

Ideally that is the endgame for every sports franchise in every sport.

Sports would cease to exist if that was every fans mantra though.

Very few have a real chance every year

 

[Notsince67]

That is a very good question. Fact is, Nylander has stepped up in previous playoffs more than any of the core 4 here in Toronto. Hopefully this season has all of them going.

In a perfect scenario, you get Willy signed for $10M @ 5 or 6 years. You get Mitch done this upcoming summer around the same AAV. Tavares is the odd guy out here. I like JT, but if he is not willing to extend at around $6M AAV then he is the one you let walk. No way you lose 88 or 16 for 91.

You actually think you get mitch at 10MM a year before his contract ends?
I'm sure you think it's generous but you might want to temper your expectations a wee bit.

 

[1specter]

Nylander sucks at defense. Between the 3. Marner and Matthews have far more utility.

Nylander is great at offense. Zone entries...play making.

'Sucks at defense' is a big stretch. Nylander has average defensive acumen and once again the team's problem in the playoffs has not been its defense.

 

[Notsince67]

I hate to get into the Willy vs. Marner thing. But there's one element that isn't talked about that I think is really pro-Willy. And I'm not saying it is the key element in comparison to other things like style of play etc etc.... But unfortunately in this market, there is a ton of pressure. On the surface, we all love Marner. Toronto boy who cares about the city and all that stuff. Willy is just a guy with pretty hair who doesn't care. Which "attitude" or "mindset" would you want in the playoffs?

On first glance, its easy to say Marner. But the second things go wrong and the media calls out Marner, he throws a hissy fit. Then he grips his stick tighter and makes poor decisions/plays. Some people can handle that pressure. A lot can't.

Then there's Willy. He just seems like he doesn't care. And for him specifically, that's great. Honestly. Cause when the media/fans/pressure come after him. He essentially portrays "I don't care" and lets it drip off and just does his thing. Honestly think that is a huge reason why he has just as much success if not more than Marner in the playoffs. Nothing to do with skill/heart/energy. It's a mental mindset.

I'm not saying you need a team full of players like that. But you need players who can handle the pressure, no matter how they handle it. Honestly when the game is on the line in the playoffs, the time we are all arguing about that needs to be conquered by this team, I'd pick Nylander over Marner in a do or die situation.

I realize Nylander has had his warts over the years and still has some warts, but he's shown a ton of growth over the past few years. Some have recognized it. Others made their bed when he held out or when Don said Ritchie was better, and there's no going back.

I just think when you analyze it all, including the difference in money they'd be making, the gap that separates the two isn't too far off and may even be non-existent.

No way Nylander gets 11mm except with another team. No way Marner cuts his salary down in the prime of his free agent years.
An academic discussion can occur but but it has no practical use.

 

[Judas Tavares]

No way Nylander gets 11mm except with another team. No way Marner cuts his salary down in the prime of his free agent years.
An academic discussion can occur but but it has no practical use.

Exactly. So if the discussion is, who is the odd man out since the team can't allocate too much money to these forwards.... Why does Nylander seem to be the easy answer? Again, maybe there will be no odd man out if the team forecasts a rising cap partnered with Tavares off the books (or returning at much, much lower salary) and that is how they will go about their business going forward.

But if someone needs to go pre-Tavares, I'm not sure why Nylander is the slam dunk easy choice. There's debates and pros and cons for both.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nylander sucks at defense. Between the 3. Marner and Matthews have far more utility.

Nylander is great at offense. Zone entries...play making.

There you go - more reasons to not lump these 3 players together.

Nylander’s playoff prowess is a bit overstated though. While it’s true that the delta between Nylander’s regular season and playoff stats is less dramatic than Matthews and Marner, the 3 of them have 47, 44 and 40 playoff career points respectively. I’ll let you figure out whose stats line is whose.

Nylander’s turnover to Barkov was also the catalyst for the Game 2 meltdown which ended up costing the Leafs that series. Yes he had brilliant showings later in the series and scored that game tying goal in Game 5…

So in the framing of paying these 3 guys each $10 million plus, I would absolutely evaluate them together.

Not sure what you mean by "evaluate them together", I'm just saying that these are three very different players so I wouldn't lump them together. And IIRC, Nylander's production in the playoffs compared to regular season hasn't dropped off at all whereas Marner's has, especially in games 5-7.

Over the last few years, I'm happy with the way Nylander has performed in the playoffs, not quite as happy with Matthews, and less happy still with Marner which is why I think it's very wrong to lump them all together and say that they've "played well". JMHO.

I hate to get into the Willy vs. Marner thing. But there's one element that isn't talked about that I think is really pro-Willy. And I'm not saying it is the key element in comparison to other things like style of play etc etc.... But unfortunately in this market, there is a ton of pressure. On the surface, we all love Marner. Toronto boy who cares about the city and all that stuff. Willy is just a guy with pretty hair who doesn't care. Which "attitude" or "mindset" would you want in the playoffs?

On first glance, its easy to say Marner. But the second things go wrong and the media calls out Marner, he throws a hissy fit. Then he grips his stick tighter and makes poor decisions/plays. Some people can handle that pressure. A lot can't.

Then there's Willy. He just seems like he doesn't care. And for him specifically, that's great. Honestly. Cause when the media/fans/pressure come after him. He essentially portrays "I don't care" and lets it drip off and just does his thing. Honestly think that is a huge reason why he has just as much success if not more than Marner in the playoffs. Nothing to do with skill/heart/energy. It's a mental mindset.

I'm not saying you need a team full of players like that. But you need players who can handle the pressure, no matter how they handle it. Honestly when the game is on the line in the playoffs, the time we are all arguing about that needs to be conquered by this team, I'd pick Nylander over Marner in a do or die situation.

I realize Nylander has had his warts over the years and still has some warts, but he's shown a ton of growth over the past few years. Some have recognized it. Others made their bed when he held out or when Don said Ritchie was better, and there's no going back.

I just think when you analyze it all, including the difference in money they'd be making, the gap that separates the two isn't too far off and may even be non-existent.

Great post! We can't know what goes on in their heads but IMO it's quite likely that this "mental mindset" is exactly why Nylander has played up to expectations for us in the playoffs, and Marner hasn't. At least that's my opinion, I know some people are completely fine with Marner's performance but whatever.

This also reminds me of the people who laughed at me for "flip flopping" on Marner. Player evaluations change over time, simple as that and a good example of that is the Marner/Nylander comparison. A few years ago the consensus was that Marner is much better, today I think most people would agree that even if Marner is still the better player (and not everyone would even agree with that), the gap between the two certainly isn't as big as it once was.

 

[Drytoast]

'Sucks at defense' is a big stretch. Nylander has average defensive acumen and once again the team's problem in the playoffs has not been its defense.

He's not asked to kill penalties for a reason. And his multiple stints at center fail because a centerman is suppose to play the full ice...back check and a higher responsibility on defensive assignments. Nylander fails at this. He's a winger. A great winger. But we have great wingers. We need defense and balance in our roster.

 

[Skullz]

Willy is amazing, and on another level to begin the year. Absolutely has to be resigned, cannot afford to lose his offence and puck transporting ability.

Not sure why contract isn't done yet. With cap going up, paying Willy 10 million is absolutely fair.

Willy at 10 x 8 = 80 million.
Willy at 11 x 7 (to any other team than TOR) = 77 million.

Get it done Tre.

 

[Notsince67]

Exactly. So if the discussion is, who is the odd man out since the team can't allocate too much money to these forwards.... Why does Nylander seem to be the easy answer? Again, maybe there will be no odd man out if the team forecasts a rising cap partnered with Tavares off the books (or returning at much, much lower salary) and that is how they will go about their business going forward.

But if someone needs to go pre-Tavares, I'm not sure why Nylander is the slam dunk easy choice. There's debates and pros and cons for both.

I wouldn't get rid of Willy. If there is a danger that he kills it this year and merits more than 10mm, the is on Tree. No chance I get rid of one of our best players to make space unless the return is mindblowing.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He's not asked to kill penalties for a reason. And his multiple stints at center fail because a centerman is suppose to play the full ice...back check and a higher responsibility on defensive assignments. Nylander fails at this. He's a winger. A great winger. But we have great wingers. We need defense and balance in our roster.

I would separate killing penalties from being good defensively 5on5 myself, two completely different things. Matthews up to now wasn't asked to kill penalties either, I'm pretty sure it's not because he's weak defensively.

I agree Nylander isn't great defensively, and that's why he's not suited to play centre. He is like you say, a great winger. I still think he need him though, right now we have two great wingers, losing him leaves us with just one. We've had trouble scoring in the biggest playoff games, seems to me like we should be trying to figure out how to keep Nylander.

 

[Drytoast]

I would separate killing penalties from being good defensively 5on5 myself, two completely different things. Matthews up to now wasn't asked to kill penalties either, I'm pretty sure it's not because he's weak defensively.

I agree Nylander isn't great defensively, and that's why he's not suited to play centre. He is like you say, a great winger. I still think he need him though, right now we have two great wingers, losing him leaves us with just one. We've had trouble scoring in the biggest playoff games, seems to me like we should be trying to figure out how to keep Nylander.

I think he always could have. I think they didn't ask him to do it was to not exhaust him. But now that they've lost most of last year's PK specialists...he's being ask to compensate.

Willy has failed at center and will not be asked to kill penalties because he's weak in his own end and specifically in the corners. We are not going deep with this team's current composition. So someone has to go. I think Marner brings more utility.

 

[notbias]

Dubas f***ed the cap and there's not much that can be done now with the core 3 but pay them .

ride out this season and next with JT then use his cap space to try to fill out a more balanced roster , not ideal but i'm not trading either Willie or Mitch who are among the best play drivers in the league for multiple lesser pieces

It amazes me people think Dubas messed up the cap, it feels like people don't know other team's situations.

We have one of the best-managed caps in the league.

Tavares is overpaid by 2 million or so.

PPG players are not cheap.

Also, we spent 15 million this off-season...

 

[barilko05]

So your happy with mediocre, okay that makes sense……..

"Mediocre" is floating in the middle of the pack, on the edge of in or out of the PO'S year in, year out. This team hasn't been mediocre in some time. We have been an upper echelon good to very good team since 34's arrival. What we HAVEN'T been is consistent. This team is maddening in its inability to not take bottom feeders like Ottawa or Montreal or Arizona seriously. I've never seen a team come out as flat as this one does against inferior competition. So many sleepy 1st periods. That's not mediocre...that's a coaching problem. I don't think Keefe lasts til the new year.