Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[ACC1224]

Funny. There are barely any threads not about this.

Just be thankful they aren’t crying about Marner here yet.

 

[geo25]

Judging the son based on the father is stupid and anyone saying they were paying attention to the fathers contract negotiations in the 90s is lying.

It is not stupid when the father is the partner of his agent and has a proven history of always following the money. You're naive to think otherwise and careless with You're inflammatory comments.

 

[notDatsyuk]

If Nylander gets $10 mil that is 3 X Leaf centers in the top 5 centers in the League as Willy would tie Barkov/Eichel.

Next year: 2024-25
=================================
1st line Center Matthews about to make $13.25 mil
2nd line Centre Tavares making $11 mil
3rd line Center Nylander making $10 mil

More likely:

Next year: 2024-25
=================================
1st line Center Matthews making $13.25 mil
2nd line Center Nylander making $10 mil
3rd line Centre Tavares making $11 mil

And which is the mistake?

The good news:

Following year: 2025-26
=================================
1st line Center Matthews making $13.25 mil
2nd line Center Nylander making $10 mil

 

[notDatsyuk]

my guess is Willy will test the UFA market. If he gets an offer of 10 AAV for 70 million (max 7 yrs he can sign with anothe team); he will walk unless Tre bends over and gives him 10 AAV

Given what Matthews just got for just handful of years and what marner will get (IMO just for handful of years); and given both matthews/marner contracts right after ELCs were done

I get Nylander's frustration; I'd be frustrated too.

For Tre as a GM his first priority should be "Team" and for Willy his priority is "his furutre"

I have no idea wtf is gonna playout; but given matthews' recent extension compared to other pending UFA extensions around the league for other teams my guess is either Leafs overpay for Willy or Willy will walk. Why should Willy not seek overpayment when matthews got overpaid significantly as RFA and now as UFA; same with Marner as RFA and will be as UFA

simply put: If I was Willy seeing the ridiculous overpayments for my teammates and I was being to f-off; I'd walk too

So the question is: if other teams are willing to give Willy $10M, is it a ridiculous overpayment for Toronto to give him that?

There seems to be a huge discrepancy between the "if he wants more than 9 trade him" and the "lots of other teams will give him 10 (or more)" viewpoints.

 

[Mess]

More likely:

Next year: 2024-25
=================================
1st line Center Matthews making $13.25 mil
2nd line Center Nylander making $10 mil
3rd line Centre Tavares making $11 mil

And which is the mistake?

The good news:

Following year: 2025-26
=================================
1st line Center Matthews making $13.25 mil
2nd line Center Nylander making $10 mil

I agree its going to take the Leafs the next 2 years to dig themselves out of Cap Hell and into a more Cup competitive situation and the transition of Nylander to C and the removal of the JT boat anchor contract from around the Leafs neck.

Willy was drafted as a center originally and Leafs were potentially looking at Matthews - Nylander and Kadri as #1-3 future centers and then Dubas screwed it all up.

Nylander making more as a 3rd line Center at $10 than most teams #1 C is simply incomprehensible on how you can be a Cup competitor at that Cap spending and management strategy.

 

[ULF_55]

The last time Willy held out for a contract it took to the very last minute and he sat out 3 months until end of December to get everything he wants.

So we already have a history here,.

Willy wants $10 mil per and doesn't appear willing to bend, but Leafs new GM is smart enough not to give a winger > $10 mil because its not a primary position but a secondary one. However if Willy moves to center and proves he can succeeds then he takes on more defensive responsibilities and drives his own line and makes his worth more in both contract and trade value.

This year D-Day for Willy will be the trade deadline and Leafs will need to decide if still unsigned to trade him or use him as an own rental and risk losing him for nothing.

I will not be surprised if this drags out until the trade deadline unless Willy drops his ask as I don't believe he is afraid to test free agency and take top dollar as a UFA. IMO

I still believe there is a misconception or misuse of the term/words "held out".

Yashin is the last player I remember who "held out." Currently the Flyers' Ivan Fedotov is holding out.

Nylander wasn't under contract when he wasn't playing, he wasn't holding out, he was in negotiations with the Leafs.

You could just as well say the Leafs refused to offer him an appropriate contract. Leafs were negotiating in bad faith.

Leafs won that negotiation and Nylander gave in to their terms.

Right now Nylander is under contract for the full season, same as many others including Scheifele, Lindholm, Hanifan, Stamkos, Hanifan, Helebuyck ...

My suspicion is he re-signs with the Leafs between now and August 1, 2024.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I agree its going to take the Leafs the next 2 years to dig themselves out of Cap Hell and into a more Cup competitive situation and the transition of Nylander to C and the removal of the JT boat anchor contract from around the Leafs neck.

Willy was drafted as a center originally and Leafs were potentially looking at Matthews - Nylander and Kadri as #1-3 future centers and then Dubas screwed it all up.

Nylander making more as a 3rd line Center at $10 than most teams #1 C is simply incomprehensible on how you can be a Cup competitor at that Cap spending and management strategy.

I agree, and just one more indication of how badly the Tavares signing messed up everything.

Is a 2C at $10M less incomprehensible than a 2RW at $10M?

But I think Willy will be 2C (and hopefully for about $9.5), which won't be so bad in two year's time.

 

[Mess]

I agree, and just one more indication of how badly the Tavares signing messed up everything.

Is a 2C at $10M less incomprehensible than a 2RW at $10M?

But I think Willy will be 2C (and hopefully for about $9.5), which won't be so bad in two year's time.

Kucherov $9.5 mil, Matthew Tkachuk @ $9.5 mil and Mikka Rantanen @ $9.25 mil >> wingers than Nylander so as winger Willy needs to make < $9.25 mil .. IMO

Elite 2-Way #1 C like Barkov and Kopitar make $10 mil AAV >> centers than Nylander as a center Willy needs to make < $10 mil AAV. IMO

Only on Leafs royally screwed up internal Salary Cap is Willy worth $10 because of the egregious overpaid contracts of Tavares and Marner, so he wants to make similar to his teammates because he scores goals similar to them.

 

[ULF_55]

Kucherov $9.5 mil, Matthew Tkachuk @ $9.5 mil and Mikka Rantanen @ $9.25 mil >> wingers than Nylander so as winger Willy needs to make < $9.25 mil .. IMO

Elite 2-Way #1 C like Barkov and Kopitar make $10 mil AAV >> centers than Nylander as a center Willy needs to make < $10 mil AAV. IMO

Only on Leafs royally screwed up internal Salary Cap is Willy worth $10 because of the egregious overpaid contracts of Tavares and Marner, so he wants to make similar to his teammates because he scores goals similar to them.

We do have to look at signing date.

Kopitar 14% of Cap.
Barkov 12.3%
Matthews 14.6%
marner 13.4%
Nylander 11.3% = $10mm

 

[PromisedLand]

So the question is: if other teams are willing to give Willy $10M, is it a ridiculous overpayment for Toronto to give him that?

There seems to be a huge discrepancy between the "if he wants more than 9 trade him" and the "lots of other teams will give him 10 (or more)" viewpoints.

The question is whether it’s ok for Lesfs to be the team to have 4 players at 10+ AAV until Tavares is off the books and then continue to have 3 players at 10+ AAV

Evidence seems to suggest that these players go quiet in the playoffs and team can’t win because there is not enough cap left to insulte them with quality depth

 

[notDatsyuk]

The question is whether it’s ok for Lesfs to be the team to have 4 players at 10+ AAV until Tavares is off the books and then continue to have 3 players at 10+ AAV

Evidence seems to suggest that these players go quiet in the playoffs and team can’t win because there is not enough cap left to insulte them with quality depth

That's a different question, but also valid.

But if you're worried about the highest paid players on the team going "quiet in the playoffs", which is a real concern, then you have to consider that Willy is the one of the four who maintained production the best, and will still be the lowest paid of the four.

 

[sxvnert]

The face of a man who gives no f***s.

Face of a man who is getting 10m+ next summer from someone.

 

[hamzarocks]

We do have to look at signing date.

Kopitar 14% of Cap.
Barkov 12.3%
Matthews 14.6%
marner 13.4%
Nylander 11.3% = $10mm

All those guys were proven elite 1C

Nylander is a winger, and hasnt proven to be a center and this center experiment likely flops within 5 games

His comparables are a completely different group of players

Hes a 8.5-9M player

 

[Gabriel426]

Since 2016/17, Toronto has the 3rd most points in the regular season.
They sit comfortably behind Boston and Tampa Bay who have 30 and 40 more points than we do over that time period.

In the playoffs, Toronto finds itself in 13th most.
Interestingly enough, a team that is lauded as having playoff success that we should aspire to (Edmonton) has exactly 1 more win than Toronto over those 7 seasons...


The problem for Toronto is that the 2 best teams in the NHL over the entirety of the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era also play in the same division as Toronto.
Not only is that a problem relating to the fact that they play these teams more frequently than the rest of the league, the NHL in its infinite f***ing wisdom, has made it so that teams must play within their division in the playoffs.....

Which means that 2 of the 3 teams in this division (the 3 best teams in the league) will always play each other in the 1st round of the playoffs and almost definitely in the 2nd round.

It's yet another form of the NHL's false parity mechanisms....



To add to this bullshit, the special teams numbers just can't be forgotten or dismissed.


Tampa Bay is the 2nd most successful team in the NHL since 16/17.
Tampa Bay also has the 2nd most power plays in that time period with 1741.
Tampa Bay has the most power play goals with 424 for a proficiency of 24.4% (2nd best in the league).

Boston is the most successful team in the NHL since 16/17.
Boston ranks 8th in most power plays with 1655.
Boston has the 3rd most power play goals with 391 for a proficiency of 23.1% (4th best in the league).

Toronto is the 3rd most successful team in the NHL since 16/17.
Toronto ranks 27th in most power plays with 1506.
Toronto ranks 7th in most power play goals with 363 for a proficiency of 24.1% (3rd best in the league).


In terms of penalty kills, the numbers are suspicious as all hell:

Tampa Bay ranks 2nd in total times short with 1720.
Tampa Bay ranks 14th in power play goals against with 326.
Tampa Bay has a penalty kill proficiency of 81.1% (6th best in the league).

Boston ranks 4th in total times short with 1693.
Boston ranks 28th in power play goals against with 271.
Boston has a penalty kill proficiency of 84% (best in the league).

Toronto ranks 26th in total times short with 1505.
Toronto ranks 26th in power play goals against with 289.
Toronto has a penalty kill proficiency of 80.8% (8th best in the league).




We've had extremely successful teams since Matthews and Marner came along, but have been put up against the only 2 teams in the league that area at the same level or better...

I am not disagreeing with you but Leafs faced Bruins and TB 4 times in the playoffs and won Once. Leafs also faced BJs(Wildcard team) and Habs(worst regular season team in playoffs) in two of the 7 years and lost both times, in which the Leafs was up 3-1 in one of those series.
Also having Bruins and TB in the same division just means we play them 1 or 2 times more than anyone else.
Lastly, the goal is to win the Cup and not a round in the playoffs and you need to beat great teams to win the Cup.
Hopefully they continue to improve and get better in the playoffs.

 

[Mess]

We do have to look at signing date.

Kopitar 14% of Cap.
Barkov 12.3%
Matthews 14.6%
marner 13.4%
Nylander 11.3% = $10mm

Signing date is important in the process as a contract from 5 years ago vs today needs to be adjusted to present day $ value, but CH% is a flawed stat that needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Term is vital in decision making process because as the cap ceiling rises the CH% decreases each year, and the longer the contract the greater advantage to the team long term. A 8 year term >> 4-5 year term

 

[notDatsyuk]

All those guys were proven elite 1C

Nylander is a winger, and hasnt proven to be a center and this center experiment likely flops within 5 games

His comparables are a completely different group of players

Hes a 8.5-9M player

Looking at comparable right wingers doesn't seem much different:

Rantanen $9.25 11.35%
Marner $10.9 13.38%
Pastrnak $11.15 13.64%
Kucherov $9.5 11.95%

 

[Menzinger]

I still believe there is a misconception or misuse of the term/words "held out".

Yashin is the last player I remember who "held out." Currently the Flyers' Ivan Fedotov is holding out.

Nylander wasn't under contract when he wasn't playing, he wasn't holding out, he was in negotiations with the Leafs.

You could just as well say the Leafs refused to offer him an appropriate contract. Leafs were negotiating in bad faith.

Leafs won that negotiation and Nylander gave in to their terms.

Right now Nylander is under contract for the full season, same as many others including Scheifele, Lindholm, Hanifan, Stamkos, Hanifan, Helebuyck ...

My suspicion is he re-signs with the Leafs between now and August 1, 2024.

The Leafs cap situation that season also gave them a flexibility to go on with the Nylander negotiations than other teams could. It was a mutual decisions that contributed to Nylanders deal getting finalized when it did.

We saw the very next year, the team had a different cap situation which prevented any mid season signings, hence Marner's deal essentially HAD to get dine by camp.

Nylanders extension imo gets announced by around the tdl or before. Too close of a gap and too much positive rhetoric around it for it not to

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I still believe there is a misconception or misuse of the term/words "held out".

Yashin is the last player I remember who "held out." Currently the Flyers' Ivan Fedotov is holding out.

Nylander wasn't under contract when he wasn't playing, he wasn't holding out, he was in negotiations with the Leafs.

You could just as well say the Leafs refused to offer him an appropriate contract. Leafs were negotiating in bad faith.

Leafs won that negotiation and Nylander gave in to their terms.

Right now Nylander is under contract for the full season, same as many others including Scheifele, Lindholm, Hanifan, Stamkos, Hanifan, Helebuyck ...

My suspicion is he re-signs with the Leafs between now and August 1, 2024.

I see you are a man who likes to live on the edge. Bold.

 

[Gabriel426]

The Leafs cap situation that season also gave them a flexibility to go on with the Nylander negotiations than other teams could. It was a mutual decisions that contributed to Nylanders deal getting finalized when it did.

We saw the very next year, the team had a different cap situation which prevented any mid season signings, hence Marner's deal essentially HAD to get dine by camp.

Nylanders extension imo gets announced by around the tdl or before. Too close of a gap and too much positive rhetoric around it for it not to

Watch Willie light it up in the beginning of the season and end up signing closer to 10mil.

 

[Menzinger]

Watch Willie light it up in the beginning of the season and end up signing closer to 10mil.

Hope he does. Him thriving as 2C while putting up strong production beet thing for the team.

 

[ULF_55]

All those guys were proven elite 1C

Nylander is a winger, and hasnt proven to be a center and this center experiment likely flops within 5 games

His comparables are a completely different group of players

Hes a 8.5-9M player

Who suggested he get 12-14% of Cap?

 

[hamzarocks]

Looking at comparable right wingers doesn't seem much different:

Rantanen $9.25 11.35%
Marner $10.9 13.38%
Pastrnak $11.15 13.64%
Kucherov $9.5 11.95%

Nylander is signifcanrly worse than all those guys like no where near comparable

Ehlers, Fiala, Reinhart, Meier, Bratt

Those are his comparable not the guys you mentioned

Nylander is a elite winger but he isnt a guy that is a franchise player

3rd best forward and 4th-5th best player level for a cup contender

 

[hamzarocks]

Who suggested he get 12-14% of Cap?

Why is he getting 11%?

Look at what other 70-80 pt wingers have gotten recently or expected to get?

Meier --> 10.54%
Fiala --> 9.5%
Bratt --> 9.55%

 

[ULF_55]

Why is he getting 11%?

Look at what other 70-80 pt wingers have gotten recently or expected to get?

Meier --> 10.54%
Fiala --> 9.5%
Bratt --> 9.55%

Nylander unlike Meier will be signing as UFA.
Meier was RFA.

 

[hamzarocks]

Nylander unlike Meier will be signing as UFA.
Meier was RFA.

Then his comparables should be Reinhart, Ehlers, Larkin whose contracts are upcoming/signed recently and were UFA deals