Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[ToneDog]

3 isn't happening, that ship sailed last summer. He signs or walks, trading won't be an option at this point. Nylander loves it here, but something tells me if he was dead set on re-signing it would've happened by now. Strikes me as a guy who wouldn't mind seeing what else is out there.

They could trade Nylander to Nashville for Saros plus if Nashville falls out of the race and they think Askarov is close. Pasta signed last February so there is hope but I agree, what is the hold up?

 

[notDatsyuk]

A slight upgrade on D? Have you seen this bunch? Cap isn't an issue. Nylander's exiting cap + Klingberg on LTIR covers it.

Anyway, It was the first example that came to mind, but again, it's subjective, and even if you can re-sign them for 5-6 each, the team as a whole may be better.

Maybe you can sign them for 5-6 each, because they're both a couple of years older, but is trying to sign them for 10-12 better than signing Willy for 10-11? With Kleinberg off we could get Pesce as a UFA and improve the D without hurting the offence.

I agree it's just an example, and most of the posters advocating dumping Nylander can't even come up with that, but it shows how poor the idea is.

 

[Drytoast]

3 isn't happening, that ship sailed last summer. He signs or walks, trading won't be an option at this point. Nylander loves it here, but something tells me if he was dead set on re-signing it would've happened by now. Strikes me as a guy who wouldn't mind seeing what else is out there.

3 is still on the table. There is no "window" that closed to trade him and you can find a dance partner interested. Get a grip.

You can't both think this guy is a 11M valued winger while at the same time sell me on the fact that there would be NO TEAMS interested in trading for him...

 

[nuck]

How? That would entirely depend on the complete picture your turning nylander into bertuzzi and Brodie 4 years ago you won’t win with that I promise you the fact nylanders a game breaker is where our edge is along with marner matty and rielly

But haven't they had that same edge for the last 5 years? Where is the change that brings them over the top? How will they get a better result going into the playoffs this year with the same tool kit they have brought every year?

 

[nuck]

They could trade Nylander to Nashville for Saros plus if Nashville falls out of the race and they think Askarov is close. Pasta signed last February so there is hope but I agree, what is the hold up?

You don't need a star goalie to win most years. And most of the superstar goalies in the last 20 years haven't been able to dominate the same way in the playoffs, maybe because they hide a clubs weaknesses. I think Freddy might have been good enough his first couple years and Campbell had the one solid playoff. Yeah they lost by a goal at the wrong time but they were a bounce away from the second round, and not staggering into it like with Sammy last year. Woll might be that guy if he doesn't turn out to be fragile.

 

[Stephen]

But haven't they had that same edge for the last 5 years? Where is the change that brings them over the top? How will they get a better result going into the playoffs this year with the same tool kit they have brought every year?

You have to consider we've never seen William Nylander perform at a PPG 1.40, 115 point pace before, which is similar production to Matthews in his 2022 Hart Trophy season, and Matthews also hitting his stride again. Marner is with Tavares and falling back into the 3 spot. If it keeps up, this is a very different Big 4 dynamic at the top of the roster.

All I hear is the clamor for change but I don't see anything that comes close to a viable solution:

-"Getting a top pairing D from a team that needs scoring" appears to be code for "I have no idea what is out there."

-Selling off at the deadline so we don't waste Matthews years ignores the fact that it's an unprecedented move for a playoff team to sell off it's leading scorer, future picks won't the team away.

-Trading for a depth, aka 3C, goalie, defenseman is describing all the stuff you need to line up behind Nylander without even replacing any of his production. The true litmus test of what a bad idea it is to trade William Nylander for depth needs is start plugging in some names to the direction you want to go in. I'll start you off. Jake Allen in goal, Neal Pionk on D, Brady Skeij on D, J-G Pageau at 3C. You get the picture.

Sign the man, retain his rights, don't give him every protection, and reserve the right to make a decision at a later date.

 

[Confucius]

Since Rielly makes more than William, shouldn’t the big 4 be Mathews, Marner, JT and Rielly

 

[thewave]

You have to consider we've never seen William Nylander perform at a PPG 1.40, 115 point pace before, which is similar production to Matthews in his 2022 Hart Trophy season, and Matthews also hitting his stride again. Marner is with Tavares and falling back into the 3 spot. If it keeps up, this is a very different Big 4 dynamic at the top of the roster.

All I hear is the clamor for change but I don't see anything that comes close to a viable solution:

-"Getting a top pairing D from a team that needs scoring" appears to be code for "I have no idea what is out there."

-Selling off at the deadline so we don't waste Matthews years ignores the fact that it's an unprecedented move for a playoff team to sell off it's leading scorer, future picks won't the team away.

-Trading for a depth, aka 3C, goalie, defenseman is describing all the stuff you need to line up behind Nylander without even replacing any of his production.

Sign the man, retain his rights, don't give him every protection, and reserve the right to make a decision at a later date.

Do you remember anyone that took a pay cut from the same team at the end of a contract during their prime? What happens if they offer MM 10m and WN 10m, what then? I imagine MM will walk even though he is making big bucks on advertising.

That's what I feel it should be though. AM 13 - WN 10(.5) - MM 10(.5) - JT 6

With the above numbers we should be able to get the D in order under the current cap.

 

[Stephen]

Do you remember anyone that took a pay cut from the same team at the end of a contract during their prime? What happens if they offer MM 10m and WN 10m, what then? I imagine MM will walk even though he is making big bucks on advertising.

That's what I feel it should be though. AM 13 - WN 10(.5) - MM 10(.5) - JT 6

With the above numbers we should be able to get the D in order under the current cap.

I'm also thinking that if Nylander leap frogs Marner in terms of pecking order, and he's somewhere between $10.25-$11.00 million, I probably have a strong case telling Marner he's not getting much of a raise if at all.

Keeping JT at $6 million feels rich for a 34-35 year old, but is basically swapping contracts with Willie now, so again, beyond 2024, it's not unpalatable. I'd try to get him to stay for more of a hometown discount.

Cap may be rising to the low $90 million mark by 2025 or something like that.

 

[nuck]

You have to consider we've never seen William Nylander perform at a PPG 1.40, 115 point pace before, which is similar production to Matthews in his 2022 Hart Trophy season, and Matthews also hitting his stride again. Marner is with Tavares and falling back into the 3 spot. If it keeps up, this is a very different Big 4 dynamic at the top of the roster.

Maybe. But in 2022 115pt Gaudreau and 104pt Tkachuk were on a powerful Flames club that hit the wall in the playoffs. Same with Huberdeau. Their regular season breakouts did not give them any bump post season. Its like two separate seasons where its guys like Marchessault and Palat and Hintz that are suddenly as good as anyone in the league. I have more faith in Bert and Domi vs Kerf and Bunting as a change that might bear playoff fruit than a 27 year old having a career year.

Now I have said many times that they have tried this mix enough already it should be clear it isn't going to work. But a reset with the coach is at least as big as any one player. I would hate for them to be making these carved in stone roster decisions on the assumption Keefe is a playoff winning coach if they just rearrange the deck chairs properly. What if a big 4 could in fact work with the right coach but Shanny is blinded by Sheldon's regular reason prowess? They are a Berube away from knowing.

 

[Stephen]

Maybe. But in 2022 115pt Gaudreau and 104pt Tkachuk were on a powerful Flames club that hit the wall in the playoffs. Same with Huberdeau. Their regular season breakouts did not give them any bump post season. Its like two separate seasons where its guys like Marchessault and Palat and Hintz that are suddenly as good as anyone in the league. I have more faith in Bert and Domi vs Kerf and Bunting as a change that might bear playoff fruit than a 27 year old having a career year.

Now I have said many times that they have tried this mix enough already it should be clear it isn't going to work. But a reset with the coach is at least as big as any one player. I would hate for them to be making these carved in stone roster decisions on the assumption Keefe is a playoff winning coach if they just rearrange the deck chairs properly. What if a big 4 could in fact work with the right coach but Shanny is blinded by Sheldon's regular reason prowess? They are a Berube away from knowing.

And like I've challenged everyone multiple times. If someone can name that unicorn player on D (or F) that is a better player than Nylander, that solves our character and leadership needs in the playoffs, who is locked into a better contract, or whom is looking to re-sign for less, maybe similar age, currently playing on a team that wants to get rid of him mid season specifically for Nylander, I'm willing to listen. I don't think that guy exists and certainly isn't available like Tkachuk for Huberdeau was.

Re-signing Nylander allows you to keep pursuing the above at a later date of your choosing, if you ever wanted to make that move. Everything else, I just see people crying for change without actually what is actually realistic.

 

[ULF_55]

Since Rielly makes more than William, shouldn’t the big 4 be Mathews, Marner, JT and Rielly

Someone has to show up stating facts and pointing out reality.

Next you'll suggest the biggest drop off in production in the post season isn't Nylander. And he scores nearly as much as Matthews in the most recent real seasons.

Spoil sport.

Just having some fun @Confucius ...

 

[nuck]

And like I've challenged everyone multiple times. If someone can name that unicorn player on D (or F) that is a better player than Nylander, that solves our character and leadership needs in the playoffs, who is locked into a better contract, or whom is looking to re-sign for less, maybe similar age, currently playing on a team that wants to get rid of him mid season specifically for Nylander, I'm willing to listen. I don't think that guy exists and certainly isn't available like Tkachuk for Huberdeau was.

Re-signing Nylander allows you to keep pursuing the above at a later date of your choosing, if you ever wanted to make that move. Everything else, I just see people crying for change without actually what is actually realistic.

But they don't need a player who is better than Nylander to win a Cup. How many clubs have two forwards as good as Matthews and Marner? Not Vegas or St louis or Washington in their Cup years. Why do they need a big 3 when nobody else has shown it works? They keep trying to build a supporting group but they are cash strapped so they blow assets for retention or they add guys years past their prime every year.

The idea of moving Willie isn't to add the piece that wins right now, its to get off the Dubas plan that running stars and table scraps can win it all. It isn't Nylander next year in a vacuum. This is a player that will be signed for 8 with a NM at a salary based on a career year, on a club that will be paying two other players over $24M for at least the next 4 years. A commitment to the Dubas plan means continuing to determine what they can trade for, whether off season or in, by how little is left over after they service all their big salaries, until Matthews is up. I don't see how re-signing Willie allows the pursuit of any meaningful change in that time because he will expect, and get, a no move just like the others. Big 3 to the end but with JT and Willie's salaries swapped. And what happens if this is Willie's Gaudreau year and he never hits 85 points again? Not a big risk if he is your top forward but when you are committed to two other guys that don't earn their deals every season that's not the case.

Anyways I can see you are entrenched in the idea that this season is the real Willie and it would be crazy to let him go. I won't try to further sell you on my pessimism. Especially since I think Shanahan probably shares your pov.

 

[ToneDog]

Do you remember anyone that took a pay cut from the same team at the end of a contract during their prime? What happens if they offer MM 10m and WN 10m, what then? I imagine MM will walk even though he is making big bucks on advertising.

That's what I feel it should be though. AM 13 - WN 10(.5) - MM 10(.5) - JT 6

With the above numbers we should be able to get the D in order under the current cap.

40m for the 4 with a cap of 92m = 44%

I think all bets are off if they shit the bed in April. I dare Shanny to tell us he is gonna run it back because he believes they will win this core. Of course, if he is not fired first.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Marner is with Tavares and falling back into the 3 spot. If it keeps up, this is a very different Big 4 dynamic at the top of the roster.

that’s actually already over. M&M are back together already

 

[ULF_55]

But they don't need a player who is better than Nylander to win a Cup. How many clubs have two forwards as good as Matthews and Marner? Not Vegas or St louis or Washington in their Cup years. Why do they need a big 3 when nobody else has shown it works? They keep trying to build a supporting group but they are cash strapped so they blow assets for retention or they add guys years past their prime every year.

The idea of moving Willie isn't to add the piece that wins right now, its to get off the Dubas plan that stars and table scraps can win it all. It isn't Nylander next year in a vacuum. This is a player that will be signed for 8 with a NM at a salary based on a career year, on a club that will be paying two other players over $24M for at least the next 4 years. A commitment to the Dubas plan means continuing to determine what they can trade for, whether off season or in, by how much is left over after they service all their big salaries until Matthews is up. I don't see how re-signing Willie allows the pursuit of any meaningful change in that time because he will expect, and get, a no move just like the others. Big 3 to the end but with JT and Willie's salaries swapped. And what happens if this it Willie's Gaudreau year and he never tops 85 points again? This is not a risk if he is your top forward but when you are committed to two other guys that don't earn their deals every season but thats not the case.

Anyways I can see you are entrenched in the idea that this season is the real Willie and it would be crazy to let him go. I won't try to further sell you on my pessimism. Especially since I think Shanahan probably shares your pov.

Isn't the goal post season, not regular season?

While Cap Hit is irrelevant in the post season, it impacts what you can bring into post season.

Does the player still earn his Cap Hit in post season?
Does post season production take a hit because you aren't getting easy points?

Yeah, most contracts are based on regular season, but why would you pay more for regular season production if the goal is post-season success?
If the collar is too tight in post-season perhaps you want to move on from those that can't handle that pressure, especially if the team doesn't struggle to make the post-season? Or at a minimum don't reward regular season without consideration of post-season?

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Someone has to show up stating facts and pointing out reality.

Next you'll suggest the biggest drop off in production in the post season isn't Nylander. And he scores nearly as much as Matthews in the most recent real seasons.

Spoil sport.

Just having some fun @Confucius ...

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View attachment 789302

I don’t know how anyone defends Tavares at all. That is pitiful and frankly unacceptable. We slam Marner for not scoring and that and faceoffs is literally all JT can do and he is barely out scoring Marner? Less points than Rielly? 1 more goal than Rielly? Minus f***ing 9 in 31 games? Take a f***ing hike I don’t want you as my 3rd line center even in two years.

 

[Stephen]

But they don't need a player who is better than Nylander to win a Cup. How many clubs have two forwards as good as Matthews and Marner? Not Vegas or St louis or Washington in their Cup years. Why do they need a big 3 when nobody else has shown it works? They keep trying to build a supporting group but they are cash strapped so they blow assets for retention or they add guys years past their prime every year.

The idea of moving Willie isn't to add the piece that wins right now, its to get off the Dubas plan that stars and table scraps can win it all. It isn't Nylander next year in a vacuum. This is a player that will be signed for 8 with a NM at a salary based on a career year, on a club that will be paying two other players over $24M for at least the next 4 years. A commitment to the Dubas plan means continuing to determine what they can trade for, whether off season or in, by how much is left over after they service all their big salaries until Matthews is up. I don't see how re-signing Willie allows the pursuit of any meaningful change in that time because he will expect, and get, a no move just like the others. Big 3 to the end but with JT and Willie's salaries swapped. And what happens if this it Willie's Gaudreau year and he never tops 85 points again? This is not a risk if he is your top forward but when you are committed to two other guys that don't earn their deals every season but thats not the case.

Anyways I can see you are entrenched in the idea that this season is the real Willie and it would be crazy to let him go. I won't try to further sell you on my pessimism. Especially since I think Shanahan probably shares your pov.

Yes, I get the theory and all the historical recriminations involving those Dubas contracts and the desire for change. Playoffs. Yada yada yada. Everyone gets it.

But again, when put to the test, you couldn't put a single plausible name to a trade when talking Nylander. You have full control to dream up something big for debate and there isn't a single name. The lack of options to me tells me need to keep Nylander and delay this mandate change. The player and contract to move on from is Tavares. I'm not getting rid of Nylander because it's the most convenient.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Yes, I get the theory and all the historical recriminations involving those Dubas contracts and the desire for change. Playoffs. Yada yada yada. Everyone gets it.

But again, when put to the test, you couldn't put a single plausible name to a trade when talking Nylander. You have full control to dream up something big for debate and there isn't a single name. The lack of options to me tells me need to keep Nylander and delay this mandate change.

Hanifin, Pesce, Jones (as starters) and I only thought about it for 10 seconds

 

[ULF_55]

Hanifin, Pesce, Jones (as starters) and I only thought about it for 10 seconds

Hanifin and Lindholm
for
Nylander, Jarnkrok and Minten

Some other pieces both ways ... can make this Cap Work.

With an understanding of what re-sign is...

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Hanifin and Lindholm
for
Nylander, Jarnkrok and Minten

Some other pieces both ways ... can make this Cap Work.

With an understanding of what re-sign is...

May as well toss in Wolf and a couple mid picks too

 

[ToneDog]

Hanifin and Lindholm
for
Nylander, Jarnkrok and Minten

Some other pieces both ways ... can make this Cap Work.

With an understanding of what re-sign is...

Sub Abrusezze for Minten and you got a deal assuming all pending UFAs extend with new teams.

 

[myleafs]

I see one of three scenarios playing out:

1. They pay Nylander $10+ long term, and it turns out to be right.
2. He walks as a UFA for nothing and we regret it.
3, They try to deal him for what they really need (top pairing D or the first real goalie we've seen since Eddi Belfour) and fail, then sell him for as a rental at deadline for a poor return, and we regret it.

4. Keep the band together at all costs and continue to have the same results for the next 7 yrs.

 

[Stephen]

Hanifin, Pesce, Jones (as starters) and I only thought about it for 10 seconds

Yeah, it also took me 10 seconds to think Alex Kerfoot, Karel Vejmelka and 7th round pick from Arizona and I just got us a draft pick, 3C and a goalie. All our Christmas shopping done.

Go back to the drawing board.

 

[ULF_55]

May as well toss in Wolf and a couple mid picks too

I think there is a prospect Leafs have that the Flames would have interest in ... played in college with one of their own?

Don't need Wolf.