Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

What is your limit for a "Cap %" for Nylander


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notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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One more thing that i realy disslike is the notion that Nylander i playing better when playing for Sweden. Thats insane.
He just get to play with players better suited for his way of playing. Playing in a way more free role. And is one of the go to guys and given all tools possible to succede.
Its time to put the team needs over Tavares needs. As his needs are usually bottom six grinders.
I think the main reason Tavares has been the 2C, and has been allowed to play with either Marner or Nylander, is Dubas' need to try to justify the contract.

Hopefully now that Dubas has gone we will see the lineup based on merit/ability rather than cap.
 
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Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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It would be easy to turn a blind eye to Nylander's shortcomings if he were the only one on the team with those issues.

The entire core is the exact same. Matthews and Tavares set the standard. Leading by example.

Stamkos punches them in the face and the response is the back of five Leafs jersey's as they all head back to the bench where they can laugh it off.
Yeah it's true, that's the rep the team has, and it's well deserved. And that's why Matthews is the most annoying, it's his team so if he threw his weight around every now and then and did something other than laugh when things get physical, the rest might follow. But no, keep laughing all the way to the bank.

Given one cannot honestly justify Matthews' new deal; NO YOU CANNOT!!!
Matthews' contract is unique (or disgusting and hurtful to the team) compared to prior 2nd contracts (or buying of UFA years if players were bridged) for franchise/core players, in general.

I see following situations playing out for Willy

1) Willy walks as UFA to get as big a package as possible, with Leafs trying the "self-rental" crap
2) Willy gets traded for sub-optimal result unless it is a sign and trade
3) (most unlikely); Willy becomes the only core player to truly give a discount and sign long term for 8 years

P.S. I don't even wanna think about what Marner is going to ask as a pending UFA
Maybe there's a 4th scenario - even though they don't want to pay Willie more than 9.5, they eventually cave, figuring that overpaying him by .5 million is better than letting him walk. I could see this happening next summer when I wouldn't be surprised to see some other team offer even more than 10 depending on how he plays this season. Some other team offers say 10.8x7, Willie signs here instead for 10 and he some options when it comes to the term.

P.S. Oh man, so much this. I almost drove my car off the road when the news about Marner's last contract came over the radio. Nothing to do but hope that the next contract won't as big a shock as the last one was.
 
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Evilhomer

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Given one cannot honestly justify Matthews' new deal; NO YOU CANNOT!!!
Matthews' contract is unique (or disgusting and hurtful to the team) compared to prior 2nd contracts (or buying of UFA years if players were bridged) for franchise/core players, in general.

I see following situations playing out for Willy

1) Willy walks as UFA to get as big a package as possible, with Leafs trying the "self-rental" crap
2) Willy gets traded for sub-optimal result unless it is a sign and trade
3) (most unlikely); Willy becomes the only core player to truly give a discount and sign long term for 8 years


P.S. I don't even wanna think about what Marner is going to ask as a pending UFA
I think you are overlooking the most obvious and likely outcome: Nylander signs with Toronto for between $9 and $9.5 million per season, and the team's cap situation will be fine because they have plenty of cap space opening up moving forward. Marner will likely get a minimal raise like Matthews, and Tavares will probably resign at close to half of his current AAV, if not less.
 

PromisedLand

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I think you are overlooking the most obvious and likely outcome: Nylander signs with Toronto for between $9 and $9.5 million per season, and the team's cap situation will be fine because they have plenty of cap space opening up moving forward. Marner will likely get a minimal raise like Matthews, and Tavares will probably resign at close to half of his current AAV, if not less.

The issue is that this same core cannot perform in the post season; so they need to be insulated with quality depth. We can't add quality depth unless we have cap room to do that; which we won't given how these "core" players are trying to get every single penny
 

Farsailor

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I truly believe Willy would take less to stay in Toronto than what he could get on another team, and they know it. So he'll probably be under paid compared to the others once again.
 

notDatsyuk

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The issue is that this same core cannot perform in the post season; so they need to be insulated with quality depth. We can't add quality depth unless we have cap room to do that; which we won't given how these "core" players are trying to get every single penny
The best option is to bump JT upstairs as soon as his current contract expires. He gets to retire as a Leaf, the 'C' goes to Matthews or Rielly, and we have $11M (less what Marner takes) to improve the depth.
 

Evilhomer

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The issue is that this same core cannot perform in the post season; so they need to be insulated with quality depth. We can't add quality depth unless we have cap room to do that; which we won't given how these "core" players are trying to get every single penny
I don't think the "can't perform" comment is accurate. For their careers, Toronto's core players are nearly all point per game playoff performers. The notion that they don't perform in high-stress situations really isn't true. There have certainly been some games where individually and as a group they haven't looked good, but that is true of any player or team in any sport. Winning requires that a million different unpredictable variables fall your way. Just because it doesn't happen one year or for five years doesn't mean it won't happen. A team has to put itself in the best position to have those variables fall its way, and the only consistent truth in team sports is that the best way to do that it to amass the most talent possible.
 

PromisedLand

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The best option is to bump JT upstairs as soon as his current contract expires. He gets to retire as a Leaf, the 'C' goes to Matthews or Rielly, and we have $11M (less what Marner takes) to improve the depth.

The way I am seeing it....

If we subtract JT's 11 AAV we have to factor in raises from all

Matthews got 13.25 - 11.6 = 1.7M raise
Nylander (guess) 9.5 - 7 = 2.5M raise
Marner (guess) 13 - 11 = 2M raise

If we sum the difference we are about: 6.2M raise; we take it away from 11 AAV from Tavares the left over is about 4.8M some of which will go towards increases for goalie; Lily; Knies, etc.

Even with JT not being on the cap; doesn't help much; and when we do comparison with other divisional rivals, conference rivals (I mean we have to go through them in playoffs); and then look at western conference; Leafs salary/cap allocation would be one of the worst in the League.

I don't think the "can't perform" comment is accurate. For their careers, Toronto's core players are nearly all point per game playoff performers. The notion that they don't perform in high-stress situations really isn't true. There have certainly been some games where individually and as a group they haven't looked good, but that is true of any player or team in any sport. Winning requires that a million different unpredictable variables fall your way. Just because it doesn't happen one year or for five years doesn't mean it won't happen. A team has to put itself in the best position to have those variables fall its way, and the only consistent truth in team sports is that the best way to do that it to amass the most talent possible.

I don't agree with this assessment.

If they are so good why do we only have one 1st round win in 7 years? I am not even making it up; its a fact!

Ideal scenario is that if some players are taking lion's share of the cap then they have to out perform i.e. go more than ppg and drag their team out of the mess which of course has not been the case in the last 7 years.

Then if you ppg is the only expectation; then we need quality depth to insulate these players; which we cannot have if we don't have enough cap left over.
 

Gallagbi

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I think the main reason Tavares has been the 2C, and has been allowed to play with either Marner or Nylander, is Dubas' need to try to justify the contract.

Hopefully now that Dubas has gone we will see the lineup based on merit/ability rather than cap.
We saw Tavares start last playoff without either on his wing. Its also how he played out the stretch that year.
 

notDatsyuk

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The way I am seeing it....

If we subtract JT's 11 AAV we have to factor in raises from all

Matthews got 13.25 - 11.6 = 1.7M raise
Nylander (guess) 9.5 - 7 = 2.5M raise
Marner (guess) 13 - 11 = 2M raise

If we sum the difference we are about: 6.2M raise; we take it away from 11 AAV from Tavares the left over is about 4.8M some of which will go towards increases for goalie; Lily; Knies, etc.

Even with JT not being on the cap; doesn't help much; and when we do comparison with other divisional rivals, conference rivals (I mean we have to go through them in playoffs); and then look at western conference; Leafs salary/cap allocation would be one of the worst in the League.
There's also the increase in cap to add in, but I agree we're still not in great shape, even if we limit Marner's new contact to 12, which is probably still a bit of overpayment.

We can't trade Matthews (nor do I think we should), shouldn't trade Nylander unless absolutely necessary, and can't trade JT or Marner.

That's why I think the best we can do under the circumstances is retire JT as soon as possible.
 
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Evilhomer

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I don't agree with this assessment.

If they are so good why do we only have one 1st round win in 7 years? I am not even making it up; its a fact!

Ideal scenario is that if some players are taking lion's share of the cap then they have to out perform i.e. go more than ppg and drag their team out of the mess which of course has not been the case in the last 7 years.

Then if you ppg is the only expectation; then we need quality depth to insulate these players; which we cannot have if we don't have enough cap left over.
The seven year comment may be factual, but it has no context. The first 3 of those years the Leafs were very big underdogs in each first round series. I think the only two disappointing series that anyone can realistically point to are Columbus and Montreal, and truth be told in the former the two teams were more evenly matched than most fans gave Columbus credit for at the time.

When I look at this team, I see four playoffs where they had a realistic chance to succeed, and they have actually made pretty significant progress in the last two playoffs (a series against Tampa that they should have won, a series against Tampa they did win, and then a series against Florida that was mostly a coin flip). This year, I think the only team in the East that might stand in Toronto's way is New Jersey.
 

PromisedLand

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The seven year comment may be factual, but it has no context. The first 3 of those years the Leafs were very big underdogs in each first round series. I think the only two disappointing series that anyone can realistically point to are Columbus and Montreal, and truth be told in the former the two teams were more evenly matched than most fans gave Columbus credit for at the time.

When I look at this team, I see four playoffs where they had a realistic chance to succeed, and they have actually made pretty significant progress in the last two playoffs (a series against Tampa that they should have won, a series against Tampa they did win, and then a series against Florida that was mostly a coin flip). This year, I think the only team in the East that might stand in Toronto's way is New Jersey.

The context IMO is given the cap hits of the core how did they perform?

The way I would approach this is:

1) Should these core players have gotten the RFA contracts they did given their performance in their ELC years for regular season and post season
2) After they did get the contracts they got; did they perform or lived up to those contracts in regular season and post season?
3) Now that the same core is up for renewal whats the right price to pay given you have a sample of 7 years not only for this core but league wide how players are getting paid, their performance, their team's performance, etc.

When applying context I think Leafs had overpaid on RFA contract; and they continue to overpay on UFA contract (ex: Matthews)

There's also the increase in cap to add in, but I agree we're still not in great shape, even if we limit Marner's new contact to 12, which is probably still a bit of overpayment.

We can't trade Matthews (nor do I think we should), shouldn't trade Nylander unless absolutely necessary, and can't trade JT or Marner.

That's why I think the best we can do under the circumstances is retire JT as soon as possible.

The increase in cap is for every team in the league not just the Leafs; so the so called "comparative advantage" doesn't necessarily exist. Teams can outbid the Leafs to grab quality depth b/c the cap increase would give more flexibility to other teams in comparison to the Leafs since their core don't take lion's share of the cap already.

IMO the cap increase won't help the Leafs as much as some other teams in the league.
 
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notDatsyuk

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The increase in cap is for every team in the league not just the Leafs; so the so called "comparative advantage" doesn't necessarily exist. Teams can outbid the Leafs to grab quality depth b/c the cap increase would give more flexibility to other teams in comparison to the Leafs since their core don't take lion's share of the cap already.

IMO the cap increase won't help the Leafs as much as some other teams in the league.
I absolutely agree about the cap. I've never been one of those people who claims the flat cap during Covid hurt only us, or that the increases since will solve all our problems.

But you still have to account for it when looking at the increases for our top three.
 

Evilhomer

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The context IMO is given the cap hits of the core how did they perform?

The way I would approach this is:

1) Should these core players have gotten the RFA contracts they did given their performance in their ELC years for regular season and post season
2) After they did get the contracts they got; did they perform or lived up to those contracts in regular season and post season?
3) Now that the same core is up for renewal whats the right price to pay given you have a sample of 7 years not only for this core but league wide how players are getting paid, their performance, their team's performance, etc.

When applying context I think Leafs had overpaid on RFA contract; and they continue to overpay on UFA contract (ex: Matthews)
I don't question that Toronto may have overpaid on the initial RFA contracts, but at the same time there is no value in cutting off your nose to spite your face - i.e., trying to fix what you perceive as a prior mistake by making another one (trading one of these guys for inadequate value) wouldn't be helpful. If you can trade any player in the league for good value and it makes your team better, no one could argue with that approach. The problem I see here is that getting equal or better value for one of these guys would be difficult, and Treliving has already seen how that worked out with Tkachuk (Huberdeau will no doubt score more points this season, but he is a far inferior player to Tkachuk, and the value is still skewed even taking Weegar into consideration).

I just don't think Treliving will trade Nylander, and I think that is part of the bet that Nylander's agent is making. I very much doubt that they are holding out for a $10 million contract. I think Nylander will settle somewhere around $9.5 million, and I think the Leafs will pay it because they don't want to trade him.
 

notdoneyet

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Three of those goals he was just coming off the bench and didn't have time to join the play. At least two more were Tavares' man who scored.
Do you just pull those facts out of your ass

Tavares had 8 points 2 on powerplay
Means he had 6 5v5 points
He finished with a -1 which means he had 7 goals against 5v5

Willy finished with 6points for 5v5
He had 10 goals against 5v5

Willy is shit defensively
 
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PromisedLand

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I absolutely agree about the cap. I've never been one of those people who claims the flat cap during Covid hurt only us, or that the increases since will solve all our problems.

But you still have to account for it when looking at the increases for our top three.

Eventually something’s gotta give if the plan and goal is to win the cup. Status quo won’t get us thy goal

I don't question that Toronto may have overpaid on the initial RFA contracts, but at the same time there is no value in cutting off your nose to spite your face - i.e., trying to fix what you perceive as a prior mistake by making another one (trading one of these guys for inadequate value) wouldn't be helpful. If you can trade any player in the league for good value and it makes your team better, no one could argue with that approach. The problem I see here is that getting equal or better value for one of these guys would be difficult, and Treliving has already seen how that worked out with Tkachuk (Huberdeau will no doubt score more points this season, but he is a far inferior player to Tkachuk, and the value is still skewed even taking Weegar into consideration).

I just don't think Treliving will trade Nylander, and I think that is part of the bet that Nylander's agent is making. I very much doubt that they are holding out for a $10 million contract. I think Nylander will settle somewhere around $9.5 million, and I think the Leafs will pay it because they don't want to trade him.

If the mission statement is to win the cup then one is has to divise a road map that would get us there

The road map currently seems yo be the same road map outlined under prior GM.

If you initially thought that road map is not the right one; then you have to question the status quo
 

ZEBROA

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He plays better? In the prelims, maybe. Last time he played it was his soft defensive gaff that eliminated them.
He mostly played with 3rd liners and had 5p in 3 games last time. Got 37p in 21g total with team Sweden. 1.8ppg. Way better then with Leafs.

I dont expect him to be good at defence, but i expect the coach to build his line with that in mind.

He will never be a twoway player. Keefe should just give up and get the right defensive support. Will do wonders.

Its like if u had Erik Karlsson, u dont put him with a slow defender with bad defensive skills. And you dont hold him back.

A team full of great twoway players would be great, but it is hard to reach.
 
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Nineteen67

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He mostly played with 3rd liners and had 5p in 3 games last time. Got 37p in 21g total with team Sweden. 1.8ppg. Way better then with Leafs.

I dont expect him to be good at defence, but i expect the coach to build his line with that in mind.

He will never be a twoway player. Keefe should just give up and get the right defensive support. Will do wonders.

Its like if u had Erik Karlsson, u dont put him with a slow defender with bad defensive skills. And you dont hold him back.

A team full of great twoway players would be great, but it is hard to reach.
I actually expect him to be good at defence. A little more effort, a little more focus and a little more consistency in his own end and he’d be fine. For anyone with his physical gifts and skill set, it’s not too much to ask.

Why could Marchand and Bergeron kill penalties and not Willy?
 

ZEBROA

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I actually expect him to be good at defence. A little more effort, a little more focus and a little more consistency in his own end and he’d be fine. For anyone with his physical gifts and skill set, it’s not too much to ask.

Why could Marchand and Bergeron kill penalties and not Willy?
He is not asked to. But he probably could and maby it would give u more defensive minded and skilled Nylander overall?
 

Notsince67

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I actually expect him to be good at defence. A little more effort, a little more focus and a little more consistency in his own end and he’d be fine. For anyone with his physical gifts and skill set, it’s not too much to ask.

Why could Marchand and Bergeron kill penalties and not Willy?
His stats have been a bit above replacement level on the pk. Where he falls short is 5x5. And he falls really short. Last year he was worse than his dismal 3 year average. He can begin by not blowing the zone. Willy is good offensively. Lets not make him into something he isn't. A little more effort isn't going to cut it.
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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Do you just pull those facts out of your ass

Tavares had 8 points 2 on powerplay
Means he had 6 5v5 points
He finished with a -1 which means he had 7 goals against 5v5

Willy finished with 6points for 5v5
He had 10 goals against 5v5

Willy is shit defensively
No - I watched the games.

I have no idea how the stats you posted are supposed to negate my statement.
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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Eventually something’s gotta give if the plan and goal is to win the cup. Status quo won’t get us thy goal
Absolutely. Unfortunately Dubas left us in a position where we can't trade either of the two we should for two more years.

So what do we do? Trade Nylander, or wait until JT's and Marner's contracts end? Anything else is pretty much shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic.

If we wait out two years, we can try a sign and trade for Marner or just re-sign him. We can just let JT walk, or sign him for a reasonable amount (2 years at $3 per?) or retire him upstairs, which I think is best for both him and the team.

What do you suggest?
 
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