Nylander contract discussion - New Poll

[arso40]

Pastrnak signed a year earlier than Willy, for about $300K less.

Ehlers signed a year earlier than Willy, for about $1M less.

Obviously I just wanted my friend there to answer it but he seemed to want to ignore the reason why nylander got the money he got he convinced dubas that as his comparable at the time him and forsberg

 

[nuck]

If the question to the front office is do you want to prioritize being as competitive as possible now, or tread water/ocus on futures, they're going to pick the first option.

They will either extend Willy now or will try in the offseason (risking him walking)

They are a 10th place club with the firepower they have now, which has close to the best top 4 forward group in the league. At this point keeping him only proves 10th place is achievable with the group they have, not that it is the best way to distribute big money for the next 8 years.

Unless we believe Willie's 20 game scoring uptick will offset the 3.41 playoff GAA or the beat down the defensive corps got (other than Mo and Schenn) what success are we buying? Last years Cup finalists had 1 player between them in the top 35 regular season scorers. Individual success does not convert to team success if its cost depletes another area of the roster. In the cap era every million they spend on a top end player takes away from the quality of the bottom 6/bottom 3. With $3M more would there even be a Klinger or a Reaves on the roster or two very different players?

Unless they trade Willie for picks they aren't conceding anything. Having 4 players producing at a ppg hasn't been a Cup requirement since the 80s. Having said all that I think I have to agree with you. Tre has shown he is either afraid or not authorized to make real directional changes. They will likely stick with Willie and hope he fulfills the Dubas vision.

 

[nuck]

Since Nylander is one of the key talents on this team (#3 if not #2), wouldn't signing him "sustain the longevity of the talent" as opposed to throwing it away?

Trading a pending UFA as a rental is not going to get you anywhere near his value.

Right now his trade value has never been as high. There are GMs out there as starry eyed as some fans on this board who expect he will do this forever. If a team is on his list it won't be for a 1st and a prospect. If its sign and trade it will be for a return that can be converted to real improvement in the areas they need it.

Sustaining the talent but carrying these massive forward contracts has bled them draft capital every year trying to fill holes. A few million to spare immediately means they don't need to pay extra for retention. Erasing $10M from your future cap is a huge return and creates options the team hasn't had for years.

How has it worked so far and is the apparent improvement in Nylanders game going to carry forward? There are risks either way but they weren't knocking on the door any time in the last 5
years so running it back still doesn't look like the obvious move.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Right now his trade value has never been as high. There are GMs out there as starry eyed as some fans on this board who expect he will do this forever. If a team is on his list it won't be for a 1st and a prospect. If its sign and trade it will be for a return that can be converted to real improvement in the areas they need it.

Sustaining the talent but carrying these massive forward contracts has bled them draft capital every year trying to fill holes. A few million to spare immediately means they don't need to pay extra for retention. Erasing $10M from your future cap is a huge return and creates options the team hasn't had for years.

How has it worked so far and is the apparent improvement in Nylanders game going to carry forward? There are risks either way but they weren't knocking on the door any time in the last 5
years so running it back still doesn't look like the obvious move.

Not even close to being true considering a team trading for him is only getting for one playoff run. This is pretty basic stuff.

 

[Menzinger]

Not even close to being true considering a team trading for him is only getting for one playoff run. This is pretty basic stuff.

Yep. We know the return for a star/1st line winger rental - there's been a couple moved in the last few seasons, and it's hardly a franchise changing return.

As for the whole sign and trade idea, it's unlikely to ever happen.

The odds of a team that is on Nylanders list, that he wants to extend with, that is willing to pay exactly what his agent demands in terms of money, and is willing to pay a massive price in terms of assets to the Leafs are likely VERY low.

 

[arso40]

They are a 10th place club with the firepower they have now, which has close to the best top 4 forward group in the league. At this point keeping him only proves 10th place is achievable with the group they have, not that it is the best way to distribute big money for the next 8 years.

Unless we believe Willie's 20 game scoring uptick will offset the 3.41 playoff GAA or the beat down the defensive corps got (other than Mo and Schenn) what success are we buying? Last years Cup finalists had 1 player between them in the top 35 regular season scorers. Individual success does not convert to team success if its cost depletes another area of the roster. In the cap era every million they spend on a top end player takes away from the quality of the bottom 6/bottom 3. With $3M more would there even be a Klinger or a Reaves on the roster or two very different players?

Unless they trade Willie for picks they aren't conceding anything. Having 4 players producing at a ppg hasn't been a Cup requirement since the 80s. Having said all that I think I have to agree with you. Tre has shown he is either afraid or not authorized to make real directional changes. They will likely stick with Willie and hope he fulfills the Dubas vision.

All we need to do is sure up the d we will be fine

 

[saffronleaf]

sign him now

 

[Drytoast]

I agree with this in principle, the problem I have is that I have little faith left in Marner. If it was Nylander instead of Marner we were "stuck with", I'd agree but since Marner is what he is, and Nylander looks like he might be emerging as a superstar, I say keeping him is our best shot. Once JT's contract is over, the big picture will look better than it does now.

Overpaying Nylander just perpetuates the problem. In THIS dressing room everyone is going to bounce their value against Matthew's cap hit. Which is why we are in this mess to begin with. Dubas set the cost too f***ing high. He set the bar with Tavares and then leapt over it with Matthews and Marner.

I dunno what Willie is. He can't play for shit in his own end. He doesn't kill penalties. He floats. He doesn't really play the body, go in the corners. He has great hands, a deceptive shot, great zone entries and can pass the puck.

He is great but he is certainly NOT a complete player by any stretch of the imagination. And for that I do not value him to be an 11M player.

All we need to do is sure up the d we will be fine

And a goalie. Or haven't you noticed that we are back to letting in 1 bad goal a game regardless who's in net?

 

[arso40]

Overpaying Nylander just perpetuates the problem. In THIS dressing room everyone is going to bounce their value against Matthew's cap hit. Which is why we are in this mess to begin with. Dubas set the cost too f***ing high. He set the bar with Tavares and then leapt over it with Matthews and Marner.

I dunno what Willie is. He can't play for shit in his own end. He doesn't kill penalties. He floats. He doesn't really play the body, go in the corners. He has great hands, a deceptive shot, great zone entries and can pass the puck.

He is great but he is certainly NOT a complete player by any stretch of the imagination. And for that I do not value him to be an 11M player.


And a goalie. Or haven't you noticed that we are back to letting in 1 bad goal a game regardless who's in net?

Defence strengthens the structure those won’t be going in and we’ll be dominating teams full year for Robertson full year for knies another year for lily maybe a big year for timmins

 

[notDatsyuk]

So let me get this straight....A point a game, perennial 30 goal scorer, PP lock to score, is not a good player because why? because hes not fast? thats not good enough.

John Tavares is a future HOFer, 6 pts away from 1000pts in the NHL and OH yeah hes 3rd in goals since being drafted into the NHL.

MORE GOALS THAN SIDNEY CROSBY.

This take is strictly a coerced hockey take from the media in regards to the cap. This is not an educated hockey take.

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It's funny how people look at things.

JT is a "point a game, perennial 30 goal scorer", although the stats you posted show that he isn't 'point a game' (I had someone in another thread tell me that .99 ppg isn't 'point a game'). I'm also dubious of the 'perennial 30' - even omitting the COVID seasons, he's hit 30 six times in twelve seasons.

"MORE GOALS THAN SIDNEY CROSBY." Technically true for the selected period of 2009-10 to 2023-24, but in context, 1% more goals in 10% more games and 10% more ice time.

(It is equally true that Ryan Reeves has more goal than Wayne Gretzky over that same time frame.)

On their defence, Boston really tried to get JT in order to address ageing C squad.

They went as far as asking Krejci if he would wave so they could trade him (7M cap hit) in order to accommodate JT.

This IMO (and I'm speculating here) means JT was seriously considering joining Boston and it wasn't really about pyjamas and going home, but more about the best offer out there (and Leafs paying top $).

But (according to rumour), there were at least two better offers made (San Jose and Islanders).

 

[Stephen]

Yep. We know the return for a star/1st line winger rental - there's been a couple moved in the last few seasons, and it's hardly a franchise changing return.

As for the whole sign and trade idea, it's unlikely to ever happen.

The odds of a team that is on Nylanders list, that he wants to extend with, that is willing to pay exactly what his agent demands in terms of money, and is willing to pay a massive price in terms of assets to the Leafs are likely VERY low.

If I re-use my Auston Matthews Road to Free Agency Armageddon math on William Nylander, I'm very comfortable that he'll be re-signing with the Leafs even if we didn't factor in the team wants him and the player wants to be here. For the simple fact that landing spots will be somewhat rare, and none perfect.

We're still basically in a flat-ish cap environment with a little bit of relief in the offseason. If signing William Nylander for Toronto is a race to $11 million (upper range of bad scenarios), we have a $7 million head start on everyone else, plus the 8th year in our back pocket.

What does this mean? Any team that wants William Nylander needs to carve out $11 million in cap space from their existing roster. They need to get rid of a Top 6 winger, maybe a first pairing defenseman or a starting goalie. Not a lot of big time UFA's are coming off the books either. The biggest UFA is Stamkos in Tampa, and I think Tampa would be looking to re-sign Stammer to a smaller deal.

 

[Taylor Halls Teeth]

Not even close to being true considering a team trading for him is only getting for one playoff run. This is pretty basic stuff.

He has a list of where he won't go and you would assume any team he does get dealt to would have some expectation of an extension or they wouldnt pay top dollar. You don't trade without a willing partner which is also pretty basic stuff. There is dumping and then there is the voluntary parting of company when the numbers cant work. Pennies on the dollar only happens if you wait till the last minute. Their miniscule leverage is sinking by the day.

 

[notDatsyuk]

The beauty of the salary cap is that it doesn't give a single f*** about the prestige of any player. It's simple math. What do you bring and what does that cost?

And we are seeing how that is playing out in the real world given the results of the teams that win. Vegas being the latest example of the teams that are successful. And they went up against yet another team that has great cap cost versus value.

Paying 13 million for Matthews, what are you buying? What is worth 3+ extra million that Matthews brings versus a 9-10 million player?

What does it do to the locker room when you have 3-4 players eating half the cap?

We need to stop this nonsense. At the end of the day I would have prefered Nylander over Marner. I would have prefered Matthews come in lower to extend. But Matthews is signed. Marner and Tavares have NTC. That leaves Nylander as the odd man out.

If we every want to win, this core needs to be broken. The overpaying versus value offered needs to stop.

Sure, but it becomes a matter of how best to do it.

Does throwing away your second-best player (and 4th highest paid if he gets <$11M) now, make more sense than waiting 1+ years to get rid of your (at best) 5th best player (who's likely still been making more)?

Dealing in panic 'we have to win now' mode when it isn't feasible is a large part of how we got in this mess in the first place.

 

[authentic]

That would be pretty funny as the "duh" wasn't even directed at him.

That's a fantastic question. I'm just used to our management being pushovers so I assume he'll get at least 12. Yes we have a new GM but Marner will have leverage he didn't have when Dubas gave him that putrid 11 million dollar deal so hard to be optimistic at this point.

I'd be fine with 11x8, hell I think I'd even be fine with 11x5 but 12 seems like too much. He's a great player, the only knock is that you can't count on him in the biggest games we play. That's only a small handful of games over the years but still, those games are so important that if you can't count on him for those games, that detracts from his value quite a bit.


Your concerns are valid, to a point. I think he settles in somewhere between "this player", and the player he's been myself. Yes he's 28 so this might be his absolute peak - valid concern. On the other hand, it will be the 3rd year in a row where he's setting career highs, and the eye test shows him taking his play up a tier and he's become an elite offensive force. Elite players also see their production drop off more slowly then average players. Marchand is an example of a late bloomer, he's still going strong at age 35, considering what a fine physical specimen Willie is, why can't he do the same? I could see him playing at a very high level for years to come, he's become a superstar, I think he likes how it feels and wants to keep going.

It could go either way, nobody knows, nobody can see the future but for myself, I agree with you that I'd rather have Willy at 10 vs Marner at 12.5 or whatever, but I would also choose Willy if their salaries were the same. He's steadily improved over the last few seasons, he doesn't fade away in the biggest games, he's gone from star to superstar, he's better than Marner right now and I'm betting he stays there.

Also there’s no shortage of Swedes who peaked late in their careers or remained elite well into their 30s, Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Sundin, the Sedins, Forsberg, Alfredsson, Backstrom and Hedman just off the top of my head. I don’t think Nylander is falling off a cliff anytime soon even if this ends up being his peak season. Imagining this team without Nylander would be enough to make me quit being a Leafs fan.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I had said he sucked for the first year and a half after signing in December 2018. Look at his stats for the first half of the second season. He had some bad stretches in November and December.

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By month:

Oct 14 games, 9 points
Nov 14 games, 13 points
Dec 13 games, 13 points
Jan 10 games, 11 points
Feb 13 games, 11 points

That certainly doesn't look like it took him too long to stop sucking.

 

[arso40]

By month:

Oct 14 games, 9 points
Nov 14 games, 13 points
Dec 13 games, 13 points
Jan 10 games, 11 points
Feb 13 games, 11 points

That certainly doesn't look like it took him too long to stop sucking.

Exactly what I was saying

 

[notDatsyuk]

Right now his trade value has never been as high. There are GMs out there as starry eyed as some fans on this board who expect he will do this forever. If a team is on his list it won't be for a 1st and a prospect. If its sign and trade it will be for a return that can be converted to real improvement in the areas they need it.

Sustaining the talent but carrying these massive forward contracts has bled them draft capital every year trying to fill holes. A few million to spare immediately means they don't need to pay extra for retention. Erasing $10M from your future cap is a huge return and creates options the team hasn't had for years.

How has it worked so far and is the apparent improvement in Nylanders game going to carry forward? There are risks either way but they weren't knocking on the door any time in the last 5
years so running it back still doesn't look like the obvious move.

Willy is the one of them who seems to have improved each year, particularly in the playoffs.

Waiting 1+ years to get rid of $11M of your cap, and a lesser and older player to boot, may be a better idea.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Overpaying Nylander just perpetuates the problem. In THIS dressing room everyone is going to bounce their value against Matthew's cap hit. Which is why we are in this mess to begin with. Dubas set the cost too f***ing high. He set the bar with Tavares and then leapt over it with Matthews and Marner.

I dunno what Willie is. He can't play for shit in his own end. He doesn't kill penalties. He floats. He doesn't really play the body, go in the corners. He has great hands, a deceptive shot, great zone entries and can pass the puck.

He is great but he is certainly NOT a complete player by any stretch of the imagination. And for that I do not value him to be an 11M player.

He actually plays well in his own end, and kills penalties. He doesn't hit much, but he does go into the dirty areas and take hits, and if instead of hitting he just takes the puck away, is that so bad?

He has game-breaking speed, great hands, an excellent shot, great zone entries and can both pass the puck and handle it without giving it away.

 

[authentic]

Willy is the one of them who seems to have improved each year, particularly in the playoffs.

Waiting 1+ years to get rid of $11M of your cap, and a lesser and older player to boot, may be a better idea.

That or Tavares signs for a cheap deal, which might not be too bad considering I still see him being a useful player in his late 30s.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

Also there’s no shortage of Swedes who peaked late in their careers or remained elite well into their 30s, Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Sundin, the Sedins, Forsberg, Alfredsson, Backstrom and Hedman just off the top of my head. I don’t think Nylander is falling off a cliff anytime soon even if this ends up being his peak season. Imagining this team without Nylander would be enough to make me quit being a Leafs fan.

He'll age well because he's a Swede? Forsberg fell apart notoriously. The last sentence made me fall out of my chair. Too funny.

 

[authentic]

He'll age well because he's a Swede? Forsberg fell apart notoriously. The last sentence made me fall out of my chair. Too funny.

Forsberg hit his peak at 29/30 and was elite right up until he couldn’t play anymore due to a chronic ankle issue that he was actually born with. Nylander also doesn’t play a style that will breakdown easily anyway and he takes training and conditioning seriously. Will he age well just because he’s a Swede? I wouldn’t go that far of course but for whatever reason a great number of elite Swedish players in the modern era have been better in their late 20s and 30s than they were earlier in their careers. Oh yeah I forgot Karlsson who just had over 100 points at 32!

 

[therealkoho]

You think marner made him a hart trophy winner? Oh cmon man and as far as putting guys with guys to get ‘em going hasn’t been marner for the last year and change

Maybe because Willie and JT have finally found the magic

And Mitch has always been able to find Matthews especially during the Hart season, defensively wasn't Mitch in the Selke discussion from wire to wire, not too mention some Hart whispers? There is no way that anybody could say anything to convince me that Mitchs play didn't enhance Matthews ability to have the season that he did. It certainly helped that Auston was pretty much free of any nagging injuries all of that season.

 

[therealkoho]

you're right but our problem is our internal cap not what league wide comparables are getting paid

Dubas broke the bank giving JT 11m which set off the chain of events with Mathews using that as his floor and then Marner using them as his comps

Mathews used his leverage as a ufa to get another overpayment for his term and now that Willie has raised his game and has leverage he's probably won't settle for a reasonable deal based on where the comps put him

our only hope is Willie is being truthful in wanting to be a Leaf which i believe and we can use that to not get completely bent over because if he wants to test the market i can see him getting well over 10m , Chicago has plenty of cap and only Bedard to pay in the near future so i could see them throwing out a big number

Only 100%

 

[therealkoho]

Mathews went 4 years because his goal is to score a huge deal but at max term which will take him to retirement on his next contract .

this cap hit like his last should been for max term , he's never give us a break and he never will

He has said clearly and right out loud and in front of the press and everybody,

That; A #1 he is interested in being the highest paid player in the league

and then

B He loves Tarawnna

not

A I want to bring a Stanley Cup home to Toronto which I love.

And I'd like to be one of the highest paid players in the league and hopefully spend the rest of my career here.

 

[arso40]

Maybe because Willie and JT have finally found the magic

And Mitch has always been able to find Matthews especially during the Hart season, defensively wasn't Mitch in the Selke discussion from wire to wire, not too mention some Hart whispers? There is no way that anybody could say anything to convince me that Mitchs play didn't enhance Matthews ability to have the season that he did. It certainly helped that Auston was pretty much free of any nuggets all of that season.

Imagine if his winger was a scorer himself as we as a play maker who’s to say what kinda season matthews woulda had